Diagnostic Accuracy Fundamentals
Diagnostic test evaluation centers on the 2×2 table — the cross-classification of a reference standard (gold standard) and the index test. From this table, we compute:
• Sensitivity = TP / (TP + FN) — detection rate among the diseased • Specificity = TN / (FP + TN) — exclusion rate among the non-diseased • PPV = TP / (TP + FP) — precision of a positive result • NPV = TN / (FN + TN) — precision of a negative result • LR+ = Sens / (1 − Spec) — how much a positive test increases disease odds • LR− = (1 − Sens) / Spec — how much a negative test decreases disease odds
Sensitivity and specificity are properties of the test (stable across populations). PPV and NPV depend on prevalence — the same test can have a PPV of 95% at 50% prevalence and 30% at 2% prevalence.