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601 results for “Global changes”
Forest land under different scenarios of future global change
<p>Forest loss is one of the most threats to biodiversity, forested lands drive a key role in the climate earth system that also affects species diversity and ecosystem services (Vale et al. 2021). Therefore, several initiatives had been driven to map land-use time series, mainly projections into the future (Chen et al. 2020 and reference therein). The availability of those products is valuable for earth science, ecology, conservation, and other research fields once land-use land-cover data are important predictors of species occurrence and biodiversity threat (Ruiz-Benito et al. 2020., Valet et al. 2021) </p> <p>A recent land-use product called <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-00669-x">GCAM-Demeter</a> presents the highest global spatial resolution (0.05 º) until now (Chen et al. 2020). It provided current and future projections (2015-2100) under different scenarios of climate change (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) ) and according to the most recent framework of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The data in each year include grid-explicit fraction (in percent) of each of the 32 plant functional types (PFTs) that are widely used in current Earth system models. The complete dataset is available in five General Circulation Models (GCMs): gfdl, hadgem, ipsl, miroc, and noresm. Also includes the mean and standard deviation of those GCMs (Chen et al. 2020).</p> <p>Although the valuable contribution of the GCAM-Demeter to provide those data, it is compressed in NetCDF format, a complex file format that needs management to become usable in several analyses, especially in ecology and biodiversity analyses (Vale et al., 2021 and reference therein). Here I managed the outputs of the mean of five GCMs (harmonized projection) based on the sum analysis of plant functional types considering:</p> <p>1- Global Extent at 0.05-degree resolution </p> <p>2- Years 2020, 2030 and 2050</p> <p>3- SSPs and RCP as follow: SSP1_RCP2, SSP2_RCP45, SSP4_RCP6, SSP5_RCP85</p> <p>The goals are to assess quantitatively the forest lands under different scenarios of global change and make these data available in the Tag Image File Format (TIFF) which is a more friendly and useable format to incorporate in several spatial analyses, mainly in ecology and biodiversity studies for conservation purposes.</p> <p><strong>Methods</strong></p> <p>I downloaded the GCAM-Demeter NetCDF files (the outputs of the mean of five GCMs and the first version, i.e the harmonized projection) freely available at <a href="https://release.datahub.pnnl.gov/released_data/1190">DataHub</a> (Chean et al. 2020). I selected, extracted, and performed the sum analysis of plant functional types (codes PTF1 to PTF11- described in README attached) considering:</p> <p>1- Global Extent at 0.05-degree resolution </p> <p>2- Years 2020, 2030 and 2050</p> <p>3- SSPs and RCP as follow: SSP1_RCP2, SSP2_RCP45, SSP4_RCP6, SSP5_RCP85</p> <p>The data manipulation and analysis were done using ncdf4 and raster packages in the R environment (R Core Team 2020, Pierce 2019; Hijmans et al. 2020). The outputs range from 0 to 100 and can be identified by their file name, for example: 2020_SSP5_RCP85_Forest_GCAM-Demeter_GCMsMean_Harmonized.tif . Also, outputs are provided in the Tag Image File Format (TIFF) which is a more friendly and useable format (Vale et al. 2021 and references therein). The methods and the quantitative results for forested areas are detailed better in the <a href="https://github.com/Tai-Rocha/Forest_Scenarios.github.io">GitHub repository</a> .</p> <p><strong>Acknowledgments</strong>.</p> <p>This initiative was possible due to the high-quality data maintained and made publicly available by GCAM-Demeter authors. Also, the study was developed within the scope of the Earth System Modeling Program funded by CAPES (Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel - Grant No. 88887.373031/2019-00) </p> <p> </p> <p><strong>References</strong></p> <p>Chen, M., Vernon, C. R., Graham, N. T., Hejazi, M., Huang, M., Cheng, Y., & Calvin, K. (2020). Global land use for 2015–2100 at 0.05 resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios. <em>Scientific Data</em>, <em>7</em>(1), 1-11. </p> <p>Hijmans, R. J. (2020). raster: Geographic Data Analysis and Modeling (R package version 3.3-13)[Computer software]. <em>Retrieved form https://CRAN. R-project. org/package= raster</em>.</p> <p>Pierce, D. (2019). ncdf4: Interface to Unidata netCDF (Version 4 or earlier) Format Data Files. R package version 1.16.</p> <p>Ruiz-Benito P, Vacchiano G, Lines ER, Reyer CP, Ratcliffe S, Morin X, Hartig F, Mäkelä A, Yousefpour R, Chaves JE, Palacios-Orueta A. Available and missing data to model impact of climate change on European forests. Ecological Modelling. 2020 Jan 15;416:108870.</p> <p>Team, R. C. (2020). R: A language and environment for statistical computing.</p> <p>Vale, M. M., Lima-Ribeiro, M. S., & Rocha, T. C. (2021). GLOBAL LAND-SE AND LAND-COVER DATA: HISTORICAL, CURRENT AND FUTURE SCENARIOS. Biodiversity Informatics, 16, 2021, pp. 28-38.</p> <p> </p> <p> </p>
Changes of MJO propagation characteristics under global warming
<p>The change of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagation and periodicity characteristics under global warming is investigated using two selected CMIP5 models. It is found that the MJO period tends to be shorter, while its eastward propagation tends to be accelerated. Meanwhile the main MJO activity center shifts eastward toward the central equatorial Pacific. Two factors are possibly responsible for the increased eastward phase speed of the MJO. The first is attributed to the increase of atmospheric static stability that accelerates equatorial Kelvin wave speed. The second is attributed to the increase of zonal asymmetry of MJO-scale moist static energy (MSE) tendency, which is contributed to the combined effect of anomalous circulation and mean MSE gradient. A theoretical framework is constructed to understand the relative role of anomalous heating and mean static stability changes in determining MJO-scale circulation change. It is found that their effect is phase dependent. During the initial warming phase the circulation change is primarily controlled by the heating change, whereas during the later warming phase it is primarily controlled by the static stability change. The eastward shift of the main MJO activity center is possibly caused by the occurrence of an El Niño-like mean SST change and associated vertical overturning circulation change in the tropical Pacific.</p>
Feast or famine: How is global change affecting forage supply for Yellowstone's ungulate herds?
<p>The ecological integrity of US national parks and other protected areas are under threat in the Anthropocene. For Yellowstone National Park (YNP), the impacts that global change has already had on the park's capacity to sustain its large migratory herds of wild ungulates is incompletely understood. Here we examine how two understudied components of global change, the historical increase in atmospheric CO2 and the spread of non-native, invasive plant species, may have altered the capacity of YNP to provide forage for ungulates over the last 200-plus years. We performed two experiments: (1) a growth chamber study that determined growth rates of important invasive and native YNP grasses that are forages for ungulates under pre-industrial (280 ppm) vs modern (410 ppm) CO2 levels, and (2) a field study that compared the effect of defoliation (clipping) on shoot growth of invasive and native mesic grassland plants under ambient CO2 conditions in 2019. The growth chamber experiment revealed that modern CO2 increased the growth rates of both invasive and native grasses, and invasive grasses grew faster regardless of CO2 conditions. The field results showed a continuum of positive to negative responses of shoot growth to defoliation, with a subgroup of invasive species responding most positively. Together the results indicated that the historical increase in CO2 and the spread of invasive species, some of which were planted to provide forage for ungulates in the early- and mid-1900s, have likely increased the capacity of forage production in YNP. However, rising CO2 has also resulted in regional warming and increased aridity in YNP, which will likely reduce grassland productivity. The challenge for global change biologists and park managers is to determine how competing components of global change have already and will increasingly affect forage dynamics and the sustainability of Yellowstone's iconic ungulate herds in the Anthropocene.</p>
Local anthropogenic stress does not exacerbate coral bleaching under global climate change
<p><strong>Aim</strong>. Rising ocean temperatures are widely recognised as the dominant driver behind the rapid degradation of coral reefs via the process of coral bleaching (the expulsion of photosynthetic endosymbionts which reveals the coral skeleton). However, bleaching of hard corals is often assumed to be further aggravated by the effect of local-scale stressors from anthropogenic activity, accelerating coral reef decline where these stressors are stronger. Despite the importance of this hypothesis, the interaction between climate change and local stressors for driving coral bleaching has only been investigated in a handful of studies, with no large-scale (regional or global) test conducted thus far. We investigate the impact of human population density (HPD) – a proxy for local stressors - in both protected and non-protected marine regions, and their interaction under heat stress as drivers of coral bleaching.</p> <p><strong>Location</strong>. Global.</p> <p><strong>Time period</strong>. 2002-2018.</p> <p><strong>Major Taxa Studied</strong>. Scleractinia corals.</p> <p><strong>Methods</strong>. Using 9,170 coral reef surveys worldwide, we performed Bayesian modeling to assess the probability of coral bleaching in response to local-scale stressors in interaction with global warming.</p> <p><strong>Results</strong>. Local HPD does not exacerbate coral bleaching, either independently or under thermal stress from climate change. Rather, the relationship between HPD and temperature stress appears weakly antagonistic for coral bleaching, contradicting the expectation that HPD increases the sensitivity of corals to bleaching under thermal stress.</p> <p><strong>Main conclusions</strong>. Local HPD does not interact with global warming by degrading coral reefs. However, regional variation in bleaching patterns exists. Consequently, bleaching will continue to occur on most coral reefs globally regardless of local HPD. Thus, it is likely that even isolated, well-protected, coral reefs will continue to decline because of climate warming-induced bleaching. Therefore, tackling the source of global warming remains the most effective way of mitigating coral reef decline via coral bleaching.</p>
MAgPIE model runs outputs: Climate change-driven global land-use system adaptation under CMIP6-based crop model projections
<p>Each folder contains the fulldata.gdx and the configuration files for each MAgPIE run based on the nine crop impact models and 5 gcms used in the paper.</p>
Supplementary material 2 from: Polce C, Maes J, Brander L, Cescatti A, Baranzelli C, Lavalle C, Zulian G (2016) Global change impacts on ecosystem services: a spatially explicit assessment for Europe. One Ecosystem 1: e9990. https://doi.org/10.3897/oneeco.1.e9990
Key between LUISA (Baranzelli et al., 2014) and CORINE LULC types, and scores for the potential contribution of each LULC type to provide relevant ES. Scores are based on the ES potential matrix by Burkhard et al. (2014), after appropriate rescaling. See main text for additional details.
Supplementary material 1 from: Pérez-Luque AJ, Zamora R, Bonet FJ, Pérez-Pérez R (2015) Dataset of MIGRAME Project (Global Change, Altitudinal Range Shift and Colonization of Degraded Habitats in Mediterranean Mountains). PhytoKeys 56: 61-81. https://doi.org/10.3897/phytokeys.56.5482
Table S1: Explanation note: Information about transects of the project. Elevation in m a.s.l. Type: AM = Altitudinal migration; FO = Forest; MH = Marginal Habitat. Subtype: AC-e: Abandoned Cropland: edge; AC-i: Abandoned Cropland: inside; Pp-e: Pine plantations: edge; Pp-i: Pine plantations: inside; TE: Treeline Ecotone. Locality: CA = Robledal de Cáñar; SJ = Robledal de San Juan.
Global insect herbivory and its response to climate change
<p>Data and code for paper '<em>Global insect herbivory and its response to climate change</em>'. To obtain more comprehensive data, please download the <a href="../records/11047796"><strong>new version</strong></a> of the file from Zenodo.</p> <p>Mu Liu, Peixi Jiang, Jonathan M. Chase, Xiang Liu,<br>Global insect herbivory and its response to climate change,<br>Current Biology,<br>2024,<br><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2024.04.062">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2024.04.062</a>.</p>
Replication data for Chen and Khanna. (Global Environmental Change Advances, 2024), "Heterogeneous and Long-Term Effects of a Changing Climate on Bird Biodiversity"
<p>This dataset contains code and data to replicate the results for "Heterogeneous and Long-Term Effects of a Changing Climate on Bird Biodiversity" by Luoye Chen and Madhu Khanna.</p>
Data for global agricultural water scarcity assessment incorporating blue and green water availability under future climate change
<p>This dataset is for the publication Global agricultural water scarcity assessment incorporating blue and green water availability under future climate change by Liu et al., 2022 (Earth's Future, doi: <a href="http://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002567">10.1029/2021EF002567</a>).</p> <p>Three observation-based global meteorological datasets, namely PGMFD v.2, GSWP3, and WFDEI, were used to calculate ETc over the baseline period. The bias-corrected climate projections of four GCMs (namely GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MIROC5) provided by the ISIMIP phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) were used to calculate the ETc over the future period.</p> <p> </p> <p>Liu, X., Liu, W., Tang, Q., Liu, B., Wada, Y., & Yang, H. (2022). Global agricultural water scarcity assessment incorporating blue and green water availability under future climate change. Earth's Future, 10, e2021EF002567. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002567">https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002567</a></p>
Data and code for reproduction of: "Climate change to exacerbate the burden of water collection on women's welfare globally"
<p>This repository contains the data and code necessary to reproduce the analysis of the paper:</p> <p> </p> <p>"<span>Climate change to exacerbate the burden of water </span><span>collection on women’s welfare globally"</span></p> <p><span>by Robert Carr, Maximilian Kotz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Helga Weisz, and Leonie Wenz.</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span>Please see the README.txt file for detailed description and instructions on use, and contact maxkotz@pik-potsdam.de for further questions.</span></p>
Supplementary Datasets for 'Reducing climate change impacts from the global food system through diet shifts'
<p>Supplementary Datasets for <em>Reducing climate change impacts from the global food system through diet shifts.</em></p>
Code and data sets analysed in: "Marine heatwave bleaching causes mass mortality and drives a microbial community reorganisation in an ecologically important temperate sponge" Bell et al. (2024). Global Change Biology
<p>The attached zipped folder contains in-situ, satellite, reanalysis and laboratory measurements, together with R and MATLAB scripts, to reproduce the results in Bell et al. (2024). Marine heatwave bleaching causes mass mortality and drives a microbial community reorganisation in an ecologically important temperate sponge. Global Change Biology. Each folder contains a read me file that describes the enclosed data sets and scripts.</p>
Fast emulator of changes in crop yields at different levels of global warming
<p>This is the Online Supplement to the following publication: Ostberg, S., Schewe, J., Childers, K.,<br> and Frieler, K.: Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming, Earth System<br> Dynamics, 9, 2018. The Supplement contains a number of additional figures as well as the emulator coefficients<br> needed to apply the emulators presented in the paper to derive yield changes for any given pair of global mean<br> temperature change (<span class="math-tex">\(\Delta\)</span>GMT) and atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration (pCO<sub>2</sub>). See readme.pdf for details.</p>
Predicting the global potential distribution of vine mealybug, Planococcus ficus under climate change
<p>Figure S1: Performances of niche model of <em>P.ficus</em> in current model. L=Linear; Q=Quadratic; H=Hinge; P=Product; T=Threshold, Figure S2: Partial AUC Values and Graphics, null model (red distribution), distribution of expectations created via bootstrapping replacement of 50% of the total available points and 1000 resampling replicates (blue distribution), Table S1: References used to compile the dataset, Table S2: Occurrence sites for <em>P.ficus</em>, Table S3: Correlation analysis of environmental variables for pest, Table S4: ENMeval results for <em>P.ficus</em> from SDMs.</p>
Supporting Data for "The Vertical Structure of Tropical Temperature Change in Global Storm-Resolving Model Simulations of Climate Change"
<p>Code and netcdf files of processed X-SHiELD and CMIP6 simulations to reproduce the figures of the revised submission of Timothy M. Merlis, Ilai Guendelman, Kai-Yuan Cheng, Lucas Harris, Yan-Ting Chen, Christopher S. Bretherton, Maximilien Bolot, Linjiong Zhou, Alex Kaltenbaugh, Spencer K. Clark, and Stephan Fueglistaler (2024): "The Vertical Structure of Tropical Temperature Change in Global Storm-Resolving Model Simulations of Climate Change".</p> <p> </p>
Data from: Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate
Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO2. However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically-induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification.
Data from: A general-purpose spatial survey design for collaborative science and monitoring of global environmental change: the global grid
Recent guidance on environmental modeling and global land-cover validation stresses the need for a probability-based design. Additionally, spatial balance has also been recommended as it ensures more efficient sampling, which is particularly relevant for understanding land use change. In this paper I describe a global sample design and database called the Global Grid (GG) that has both of these statistical characteristics, as well as being flexible, multi-scale, and globally comprehensive. The GG is intended to facilitate collaborative science and monitoring of land changes among local, regional, and national groups of scientists and citizens, and it is provided in a variety of open source formats to promote collaborative and citizen science. Since the GG sample grid is provided at multiple scales and is globally comprehensive, it provides a universal, readily-available sample. It also supports uneven probability sample designs through filtering sample locations by user-defined strata. The GG is not appropriate for use at locations above ±85° because the shape and topological distortion of quadrants becomes extreme near the poles. Additionally, the file sizes of the GG datasets are very large at fine scale (resolution ~600 m × 600 m) and require a 64-bit integer representation.
Data and model code for study: Mechanistic modelling of marsh seedling establishment provides a positive outlook for coastal wetland restoration under global climate change
<p>This folder will include data and model code for study: Mechanistic modelling of marsh seedling establishment provides a positive outlook for coastal wetland restoration under global climate change.</p>
Global Fire Weather Indices - supporting data for Jain et al. 2021, Nature Climate Change
<p>Daily fire weather indices (FWI and ISI, outputs of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System) from 1979-2020 at 0.25 deg resolution. This data supports the analysis in "Observed increases in extreme fire weather driven by atmospheric humidity and temperature", Jain et al. 2021, accepted for publication in Nature Climate Change.<br> <br> Variables were processed using inputs from the ERA5 Reanalysis (hourly surface data from 1979–2020, available from <a href="https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=overview">https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=overview</a>). FWI System indices were calculated using the CFFDRS R package using the overwintering procedure outlined in McElhinny et al. 2020. </p> <p>References</p> <p>McElhinny, M., Beckers, J. F., Hanes, C., Flannigan, M., and Jain, P.: A high-resolution reanalysis of global fire weather from 1979 to 2018 – overwintering the Drought Code, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1823–1833, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1823-2020, 2020.</p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p>
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