Find research datasets worth reusing

Data from: The interaction of exposure and warming tolerance determines fish species vulnerability to warming stream temperatures

Species vulnerability to climate change involves an interaction between the magnitude of change (exposure) and a species' tolerance to change. We evaluated fish species vulnerability to predicted stream temperature increases by examining warming tolerances across the Wyoming fish assemblage. Warming tolerance combines stream temperature with a thermal tolerance metric to estimate how much warming beyond current conditions a species can withstand. Brown trout, rainbow trout, and burbot had the lowest warming tolerances and highest proportion of currently occupied sites that will become unsuitable under predicted temperature increases. These most vulnerable species were coldwater species, but had neither the lowest thermal tolerances, nor would they experience the greatest temperature increases. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interaction of exposure and warming tolerance when predicting climate change vulnerability and demonstrate an approach that can be applied broadly.

Data from: Ecophysiological variation across a forest-ecotone gradient produces divergent climate change vulnerability within species

Climate change related risks and impacts on ectotherms will be mediated by habitats and their influence on local thermal environments. While many studies have documented morphological and genetic aspects of niche divergence across habitats, few have examined thermal performance across such gradients and directly linked this variation to contemporary climate change impacts. In this study, we quantified variation in thermal performance across a gradient from forest to gallery forest-savanna mosaic in Cameroon for a skink species (Trachylepis affinis) known to be diverging genetically and morphologically across that habitat gradient. Based on these results, we then applied a mechanistic modelling approach (NicheMapR) to project changes in potential activity, as constrained by thermal performance, in response to climate change. As a complimentary approach, we also compared mechanistic projections with climate-driven changes in habitat suitability based on species distribution models of forest and ecotone skinks. We found that ecotone skinks may benefit from warming and experience increased activity while forest skinks will likely face a drastic decrease in thermal suitability across the forest zone. Species distribution models projected that thermal suitability for forest skinks in coastal forests would decline but in other parts of the forest zone skinks are projected to experience increased thermal suitability. The results here highlight the utility of mechanistic approaches in revealing and understanding patterns of climate change vulnerability which may not be detected with species distribution models alone. This study also emphasizes the importance of intra-specific physiological variation, and habitat-specific thermal performance relationships in particular, in determining warming responses.

Data from: Noninvasive physiological markers demonstrate link between habitat quality, adult sex ratio and poor population growth rate in a vulnerable species, the Cape mountain zebra

Effective conservation and species management requires an understanding of the causes of poor population growth. Conservation physiology uses biomarkers to identify factors that contribute to low individual fitness and population declines. Building on this, macrophysiology can use the same markers to assess how individual physiology varies with different ecological or demographic factors over large temporal and spatial scales. Here, we use a macrophysiological approach to identify the ecological and demographic correlates of poor population growth rates in the Cape mountain zebra metapopulation. We use two non-invasive biomarkers: faecal glucocorticoids as a measure of chronic stress, and faecal androgens as an indicator of male physiological status. We found that faecal glucocorticoid concentrations were highest in the spring prior to summer rainfall, and were elevated in individuals from populations associated with low quality habitat (lower grass abundance). In addition, faecal androgen concentrations were higher in populations with a high proportion of non-breeding stallions (where male:female adult sex ratios exceed 2:1) suggesting sex ratio imbalances may intensify male competition. Finally, population growth rate was negatively associated with faecal glucocorticoid concentrations and female fecundity was negatively associated with faecal androgens, indicating a relationship between hormone profiles and fitness. Together, our results provide cross population evidence for how poor population growth rates in Cape mountain zebra can be linked to individual physiological biomarkers. More broadly, we advocate physiological biomarkers as indicators of population viability, and as a way to evaluate the impact of variable ecological and demographic factors. In addition, conservation physiology can be used to assess the efficacy of management interventions for this subspecies, and this approach could inform models of species' responses to future environmental change.

opencc-zeroDec 2014View details →

Data from: Biotic and climatic velocity identify contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site's future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.

Data from: Trait evolution, resource specialization and vulnerability to plant extinctions among Antillean hummingbirds

Species traits are thought to predict feeding specialisation and the vulnerability of a species to extinctions of interaction partners, but the context in which a species evolved and currently inhabits may also matter. Notably, the predictive power of traits may require that traits evolved to fit interaction partners. Furthermore, local abiotic and biotic conditions may be important. On islands, for instance, specialised and vulnerable species are predicted to be found mainly in mountains, whereas species in lowlands should be generalized and less vulnerable. We evaluated these predictions for hummingbirds and their nectar-food plants on Antillean islands. Our results suggest that the rates of hummingbird trait divergence were higher among ancestral mainland forms before the colonization of the Antilles. In correspondence with the limited trait evolution that occurred within the Antilles, local abiotic and biotic conditions – not species traits – correlate with hummingbird resource specialisation and the vulnerability of hummingbirds to extinctions of their floral resources. Specifically, hummingbirds were more specialised and vulnerable in conditions with high topographical complexity, high rainfall, low temperatures, and high floral resource richness, which characterize the Antillean Mountains. These findings show that resource specialisation and species vulnerability to extinctions of interaction partners are highly context dependent.

Data from: Using fuzzy logic to determine the vulnerability of marine species to climate change

Marine species are being impacted by climate change and ocean acidification, although their level of vulnerability varies due to differences in species' sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure to climate hazards. Due to limited data on the biological and ecological attributes of many marine species, as well as inherent uncertainties in the assessment process, climate change vulnerability assessments in the marine environment frequently focus on a limited number of taxa or geographic ranges. As climate change is already impacting marine biodiversity and fisheries, there is an urgent need to expand vulnerability assessment to cover a large number of species and areas. Here, we develop a modelling approach to synthesize data on species-specific estimates of exposure, and ecological and biological traits to undertake an assessment of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and risk of impacts (combining exposure to hazards and vulnerability) of climate change (including ocean acidification) for global marine fishes and invertebrates. We use a fuzzy logic approach to accommodate the variability in data availability and uncertainties associated with inferring vulnerability levels from climate projections and species' traits. Applying the approach to estimate the relative vulnerability and risk of impacts of climate change in 1074 exploited marine species globally, we estimated their index of vulnerability and risk of impacts to be on average 52 ± 19 SD and 66 ± 11 SD, scaling from 1 to 100, with 100 being the most vulnerable and highest risk, respectively, under the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We identified 157 species to be highly vulnerable while 294 species are identified as being at high risk of impacts. Species that are most vulnerable tend to be large-bodied endemic species. This study suggests that the fuzzy logic framework can help estimate climate vulnerabilities and risks of exploited marine species using publicly and readily available information.

Data from: Prelude to a panzootic: gene flow and immunogenetic variation in northern little brown myotis vulnerable to bat white-nose syndrome

The fungus that causes bat white-nose syndrome (WNS) recently leaped from eastern North America to the Pacific Coast. The pathogen's spread is associated with the genetic population structure of a host (Myotis lucifugus). To understand the fine-scale neutral and immunogenetic variation among northern populations of M. lucifugus, we sampled 1142 individuals across the species' northern range. We used genotypes at 11 microsatellite loci to reveal the genetic structure of, and directional gene flow among, populations to predict the likely future spread of the pathogen in the northwest and to estimate effective population size (Ne). We also pyrosequenced the DRB1-like exon 2 of the class II major histocompatibility complex (MHC) in 160 individuals to explore immunogenetic selection by WNS. We identified three major neutral genetic clusters: Eastern, Montane Cordillera (and adjacent sampling areas), and Haida Gwaii, with admixture at intermediate areas and significant substructure west of the prairies. Estimates of Ne were unexpectedly low (289–16 000). Haida Gwaii may provide temporary refuge from WNS, but the western mountain ranges are not barriers to its dispersal in M. lucifugus and are unlikely to slow its spread. Our major histocompatibility complex (MHC) data suggest potential selection by WNS on the MHC, but gene duplication limited the immunogenetic analyses.

Data from: Delaying conservation actions matters for species vulnerable to climate change

1. Most climate change adaptation efforts emphasize where to implement management actions, whereas timing remains largely overlooked. The rate of modern climate change introduces urgency in evaluating whether delaying conservation actions compromises their efficacy for reaching important conservation targets. 2. We evaluated the importance of multiple climate change adaptation strategies including timing of actions on preventing extinctions for a threatened climate-sensitive species, the Eastern Massasauga rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus). We parameterised a range-wide population viability analysis model that integrated climate change vulnerability components of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. We related demographic sensitivities to drought events and human-modified land cover to assess vulnerability to future climate change. Using simulations, we assessed the efficacy and trade-offs associated with alternative climate adaptation strategies aimed at maximizing the number of future populations including when to initiate conservation actions, duration of management, number of managed populations, and local management effectiveness. 3. Population-level projections under future climate change scenarios revealed a broad-scale pattern of range contraction in the southwestern portion of the current range. Along the extinction gradient, we identified demographic strongholds and refugia critical for population persistence under climate change as well as populations at high risk of extinction and candidates for climate change adaptation actions. 4. In the context of future climate change, the timing of conservation actions was crucial; acting earlier maximised chances of achieving conservation targets. Even considering uncertainty in climate change projections, delaying actions was less efficient and introduced undesirable trade-offs including the need to implement conservation actions for longer or targeting more populations to achieve a similar conservation target. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our findings highlight how acting quickly reduces risk and improves outcomes for a highly vulnerable species under future climate change. Climate change vulnerability assessments for species and ecosystems require translation of model-based outputs into tractable information for climate change adaptation planning. Quantifying trade-offs associated with the multi-dimensional decision space of species conservation and management is a critical step in climate change adaptation.

opencc-zeroDec 2019View details →

Are Tidal Salt Marshes Exposed to Nutrient Pollution more Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise?

<p>Over the past four decades, Long Island, NY, USA, has lost coastal wetlands at a rate of 4% per decade due to submergence. In this study, we examined relationships between the rate of tidal salt marsh loss and environmental factors, including marsh elevation, tidal range, and wastewater exposure through analysis of stable isotope ratios of marsh soils and biota. Our goal was to identify factors that increase vulnerability of marshes to sea level rise, with a specific emphasis on the potential role of poor water quality in hastening marsh loss. Our results suggest that wastewater exposure may accelerate loss of intertidal marsh, but does not negatively impact high tidal marsh resilience to sea level rise. And while marsh elevation and tidal range were statistically significant predictors of marsh loss, they similarly displayed opposite relationships among marsh zones. This study suggests that different functional zones of coastal salt marshes may not respond similarly to global change factors, and that elevation may be an important factor mediating eutrophication effects to coastal salt marshes.</p>

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Temperature- and latitude-specific individual growth rates shape the vulnerability of damselfly larvae to a widespread pesticide

1. Freshwater ecosystems are especially vulnerable to climate change and pollution. One key challenge for aquatic toxicology is to determine and manage the combined effects of temperature increase and contaminants across species' ranges. 2. We tested how thermal adaptation and life-history evolution along a natural temperature gradient influence the vulnerability of an aquatic insect to a pesticide under global warming. We applied a space-for-time substitution approach to study the effect of warming on the vulnerability of Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae to the pesticide chlorpyrifos in a common garden warming experiment (20 and 24 °C) with replicated populations from three latitudes spanning >1500 km in Europe. 3. Chlorpyrifos was more toxic to damselfly larvae at the higher temperature: mortality only occurred at 24 °C and the reductions in growth rate were stronger at 24 °C. This could partly be explained by parallel reductions in food intake but not by the activities of two widespread enzymatic biomarkers, glutathione S-transferase (GST) and acetylcholinesterase (AChE). 4. There was some evidence that the increased toxicity of the high chlorpyrifos concentration at 24 °C was stronger in terms of growth reduction in the faster-growing larvae from the low-latitude populations. This is consistent with energy allocation trade-offs between growth rate and pesticide tolerance, but suggests that local thermal adaptation does not play a role in coping with pesticide stress. 5. Synthesis and applications. Damselfly larvae from populations in lower latitudes were more vulnerable to a common pesticide at higher temperatures and pesticide concentrations, whereas evidence for the influence of local thermal adaptation on the vulnerability of larvae was weak. These results emphasize the need for spatially explicit bioassessment and conservation tools. Management practices aimed at mitigating pesticide run-off into aquatic ecosystems are particularly important in agricultural areas at low latitudes.

Data from: Thermal sensitivity of a Neotropical amphibian (Engystomops pustulosus) and its vulnerability to climate change

A species' thermal sensitivity and its exposure to climate variation are key components in the prediction of its vulnerability to climate change. We tested the thermal sensitivity of a tropical amphibian that lives in a mild constant climate in which the thermal tolerance range is expected to closely match the experienced environmental temperature. The air temperature that this species is exposed to varies between 21.9 and 31.6°C with an annual mean of 27.2°C. We estimated the microhabitat water temperature variation under vegetation shade, which buffers the temperature by 1.8°C in relation to that of the air, and with open canopy, where the water was 1.9°C warmer than the air temperature. With broods of tadpoles split into five treatments (15°C, 21°C, 28°C, 31°C, and 33°C), we estimated the critical thermal maximum (CTMax) and critical thermal minimum (CTMin) after at least 7 days of acclimation. Both CTMax (42.3°C) and CTMin (11.8°C) were more extreme than the temperature range estimated for the field. We estimated the optimum temperature (To = 28.8°C) and the thermal performance breadth (range: 23.3–34.1°C) based on growth rate (g/day). The animals were able to acclimate more extensively to cold than to warm temperatures. These performance curve traits closely matched the air temperature. The estimated vulnerability varied according to the microhabitat prediction model used. The combination of tadpole data on thermal sensitivity and macro- and microhabitat variation provides a necessary framework to understand the effects of climate change on tropical amphibians.

opencc-zeroDec 2014View details →

Data from: Predicting species' vulnerability in a massively perturbed system: the fishes of Lake Turkana, Kenya

Background and Trophic Diversity Study: Lake Turkana is an understudied desert lake shared by Kenya and Ethiopia. This system is at the precipice of large-scale changes in ecological function due to climate change and economic development along its major inflowing river, the Omo River. To anticipate response by the fish community to these changes, we quantified trophic diversity for seven ecological disparate species (Alestes baremose, Hydrocynus forskalli, Labeo horie, Lates niloticus, Oreochromis niloticus, Synodontis schall, and Tilapia zillii) using stable isotopes. Based on their marked morphological differentiation, we postulated that dietary niches of these species would be similar in size but show little overlap. The degree of trophic diversity varied greatly among the species studied, refuting our hypothesis regarding dietary niche size. Oreochromis niloticus and L. niloticus had the highest trophic diversity and significantly larger dietary niches than T. zillii, A. baremose and H. forskalli. Low overlap among the dietary niches of the seven species, with the exception of the synodontid catfish S. schall, is consistent with our second hypothesis. Predicting Species' Vulnerability: Breeding vulnerability was highest among those species with the lowest trophic diversity. We predict that in suffering two strikes against them, A. baremose, H. forskalli, T. zillii, and L. horie will be most affected by the highly altered Lake Turkana ecosystem and that O. niloticus, L. niloticus and S. schall will be least affected. Low vulnerability among O. niloticus and L. niloticus is promising for the future of the lake's fishery, but the third most important fishery species (L. horie) will be highly vulnerable to impending ecosystem change. T. zillii should be treated as separate from O. niloticus in the fishery given higher sensitivity and a different ecological role. We see potential for expansion of the fishery for S. schall but don't recommend the development of a fishery for A. baremose and H. forskalli.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Stepping inside the niche: microclimate data are critical for accurate assessment of species' vulnerability to climate change

To assess a species' vulnerability to climate change, we commonly use mapped environmental data that are coarsely resolved in time and space. Coarsely resolved temperature data are typically inaccurate at predicting temperatures in microhabitats used by an organism and may also exhibit spatial bias in topographically complex areas. One consequence of these inaccuracies is that coarsely resolved layers may predict thermal regimes at a site that exceed species' known thermal limits. In this study, we use statistical downscaling to account for environmental factors and develop high-resolution estimates of daily maximum temperatures for a 36 000 km2 study area over a 38-year period. We then demonstrate that this statistical downscaling provides temperature estimates that consistently place focal species within their fundamental thermal niche, whereas coarsely resolved layers do not. Our results highlight the need for incorporation of fine-scale weather data into species' vulnerability analyses and demonstrate that a statistical downscaling approach can yield biologically relevant estimates of thermal regimes.

opencc-zeroJun 2019View details →

Data from: Assessing the vulnerability of Africa's freshwater fishes to climate change: a continent-wide trait-based analysis

Climate change is a key driver of biodiversity loss across the globe, and freshwater fishes are predicted to be among the most vulnerable taxa. African freshwater ecosystems are home to one of the most unique and diverse ichthyo-faunas on the planet, and freshwater fish species provide essential livelihoods for millions of people living in riparian communities across the continent. Although nearly one sixth of African freshwater fishes have been designated as endangered or vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN Red List assessment, the effects of climate change on these species have not been explored on a continent-wide scale. In this study, we present the first trait-based climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) comprising the majority (85%) of Africa's currently described freshwater fishes. We assembled data relating to three dimensions of vulnerability including sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure. In addition, we developed an index of 'conservation value' based on traditional conservation metrics including extinction risk, endemism, and provision of ecosystem services. We found that almost 40% of African freshwater fishes are vulnerable to climate change, mostly owing to the many species with highly specialized habitat and life-history requirements, and because of the numerous anthropogenic stressors they face. High proportions of species within the Nothobranchiidae and Cichlidae families were found to be vulnerable. Regions with high frequencies of vulnerable species included the African rift valley lakes, the Congo River drainage, and the coastal rivers of West Africa. Several important data deficiencies were identified relating to species' population sizes, genetic variability, and life history traits, and constitute priority research areas for the future. In addition, we highlighted some cases where traditional conservation approaches overlook species and regions that are predicted to be threatened by climate change.

Data from: Warming impacts on early life stages increase the vulnerability and delay the population recovery of a long-lived habitat-forming macroalga

1. Understanding the combined effects of global and local stressors is crucial for conservation and management, yet challenging due to the different scales at which these stressors operate. Here we examine the effects of one of the most pervasive threats to marine biodiversity, ocean warming, on the early life stages of the habitat-forming macroalga Cystoseira zosteroides, its long-term consequences for population resilience and its combined effect with physical stressors. 2. First, we performed a controlled laboratory experiment exploring the impacts of warming on early life stages. Settlement and survival of germlings were measured at 16ºC (control), 20ºC and 24ºC and both processes were affected by increased temperatures. Then, we integrated this information into stochastic, density-dependent integral projection models (IPM). 3. Recovery time after a minor disturbance significantly increased in warmer scenarios. The stochastic population growth rate (λs) was not strongly affected by warming alone, as high adult survival compensated for thermal-induced recruitment failure. Nevertheless, warming coupled with recurrent physical disturbances had a strong impact on λs and population viability. 4. Synthesis: The impact of warming effects on early stages may significantly decrease the natural ability of habitat-forming algae to rebound after major disturbances. These findings highlight that, in a global warming context, populations of deep-water macroalgae will become more vulnerable to further disturbances, and stress the need to incorporate abiotic interactions into demographic models.

opencc-zeroDec 2014View details →

Data from: Ecological immunization: In situ training of free-ranging predatory lizards reduces their vulnerability to invasive toxic prey

In Australia, large native predators are fatally poisoned when they ingest invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina). As a result, the spread of cane toads has caused catastrophic population declines in these predators. Immediately prior to the arrival of toads at a floodplain in the Kimberley region, we induced conditioned taste aversion in free-ranging varanid lizards (Varanus panoptes), by offering them small cane toads. By the end of the 18-month study, only one of 31 untrained lizards had survived longer than 110 days, compared to more than half (nine of 16) of trained lizards; the maximum known survival of a trained lizard in the presence of toads was 482 days. In situ aversion training (releasing small toads in advance of the main invasion front) offers a logistically simple and feasible way to buffer the impact of invasive toads on apex predators.

Data from: Strong population structure deduced from genetics, otolith chemistry and parasite abundances explains vulnerability to localised fishery collapse in a large Sciaenid fish, Protonibea diacanthus

As pressure on coastal marine resources is increasing globally, the need to quantitatively assess vulnerable fish stocks is crucial in order to avoid the ecological consequences of stock depletions. Species of Sciaenidae (croakers, drums) are important components of tropical and temperate fisheries and are especially vulnerable to exploitation. The black-spotted croaker, Protonibea diacanthus, is the only large sciaenid in coastal waters of northern Australia where it is targeted by commercial, recreational and indigenous fishers due to its food value and predictable aggregating behaviour. Localised declines in the abundance of this species have been observed, highlighting the urgent requirement by managers for information on fine and broad-scale population connectivity. This study examined the population structure of P. diacanthus across northwestern Australia using three complementary methods: genetic variation in microsatellite markers, otolith elemental composition and parasite assemblage composition. The genetic analyses demonstrated that there were at least five genetically distinct populations across the study region, with gene flow most likely restricted by inshore biogeographic barriers such as the Dampier Peninsula. The otolith chemistry and parasite analyses also revealed strong spatial variation among locations within broad-scale regions, suggesting fine-scale location fidelity within the lifetimes of individual fish. The complementarity of the three techniques elucidated patterns of connectivity over a range of spatial and temporal scales. We conclude that fisheries stock assessments and management are required at fine scales (100's km) to account for the restricted exchange among populations (stocks) and to prevent localised extirpations of this species. Realistic management arrangements may involve the successive closure and opening of fishing areas to reduce fishing pressure.

Data from: Bird and bat species' global vulnerability to collision mortality at wind farms revealed through a trait-based assessment

Mitigation of anthropogenic climate change involves deployments of renewable energy worldwide, including wind farms, which can pose a significant collision risk to volant animals. Most studies into the collision risk between species and wind turbines, however, have taken place in industrialized countries. Potential effects for many locations and species therefore remain unclear. To redress this gap, we conducted a systematic literature review of recorded collisions between birds and bats and wind turbines within developed countries. We related collision rate to species-level traits and turbine characteristics to quantify the potential vulnerability of 9538 bird and 888 bat species globally. Avian collision rate was affected by migratory strategy, dispersal distance and habitat associations, and bat collision rates were influenced by dispersal distance. For birds and bats, larger turbine capacity (megawatts) increased collision rates; however, deploying a smaller number of large turbines with greater energy output reduced total collision risk per unit energy output, although bat mortality increased again with the largest turbines. Areas with high concentrations of vulnerable species were also identified, including migration corridors. Our results can therefore guide wind farm design and location to reduce the risk of large-scale animal mortality. This is the first quantitative global assessment of the relative collision vulnerability of species groups with wind turbines, providing valuable guidance for minimizing potentially serious negative impacts on biodiversity.