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42 results for “Time to extinction”
Analyzing time-energy constraints to understand the links between environmental change and local extinctions in terrestrial ectotherms
<p>Accelerated extinction rates have prompted an increased focus on the interplay between environmental change and species response. The effects of environmental change on thermal opportunity are typically considered through a climate change context. However, habitat alteration can also have strong effects on the thermal environment. Additionally, habitat alteration is considered a leading factor of species extinction, yet few studies address the influence of habitat alteration on thermal opportunity and time-energy budgets in at-risk species. Here we show the strong effects that habitat degradation can have on thermal opportunity, time energy-budgets, and life history demographics of local populations. In the Ozark Mountains of northern Arkansas, woody vegetation encroachment has resulted in a shift in life history traits that appears to play an important role in recent extirpations of Eastern Collared Lizards (<i>Crotaphytus collaris</i>). Populations in degraded habitats experienced a decline in thermal opportunity and less time-at-body temperatures (time-at-<i>Tb</i>) suitable for digestion compared to those in intact habitats. We used our data to model the effect of reduced time-at-<i>Tb</i> on the net assimilated energy available for growth and reproduction. Our model predicts a ca. 46% decline in annual fecundity of individuals – which is similar to empirical observations of reproduction of <i>C. collaris</i> populations in degraded habitats (~49%). We conclude that <i>C. collaris</i> in degraded habitats experienced reduced growth and reproduction primarily as a result of constrained thermal opportunity leading to a decline in digestive processing rates. Our study applies an under-appreciated approach to identify the biophysical and time-energy effects of habitat alteration.</p>
Data from: Species turnover through time: colonization and extinction dynamics across metacommunities
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Data from: Modeling time to population extinction when individual reproduction is autocorrelated
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Data from: The impact of geographic range, sampling, ecology, and time on extinction risk in the volatile clade Graptoloida
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Data from: Body-size trends of the extinct giant shark Carcharocles megalodon: a deep-time perspective on marine apex predators
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Data from: Explaining high-diversity death assemblages: undersampling of the living community, out-of-habitat transport, time-averaging of rare taxa, and local extinction
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Holocene extinctions of a top predator – effects of time, habitat area and habitat subdivision
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Data from: Nature and timing of biotic recovery in Antarctic benthic marine ecosystems following the Cretaceous–Palaeogene mass extinction
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Analyzing time-energy constraints to understand the links between environmental change and local extinctions in terrestrial ectotherms
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Data from: Time to extinction in deteriorating environments
Habitat degradation and destruction are the predominant drivers of population extinction, but there is little theory to guide the analysis of population viability in deteriorating environments. To address this gap, we investigated extinction times in time-varying, demographically stochastic versions of the logistic model for population dynamics. A property of these models is the "extinction delay," a quantitative measure of the time lag in extinction created by species-specific extinction debt. For completeness, three models were constructed to represent the different demographic routes by which deterioration may affect population dynamics. Numerical analysis for two notional life histories indicated that the demographic response to environmental deterioration had a large effect on extinction delay, but a third analysis showed that the trajectory of the decline in carrying capacity ultimately characterized its magnitude. A concave decline in carrying capacity produced a large extinction delay while a small delay occurred with a convex decline. Furthermore, our results explore the non-monotonicity of extinction debt with respect to the speed of deterioration. A peak is present at low levels of deterioration, and the height of the peak and the asymptote of delay are affected by both life history parameterizations and the rate of change of the carrying capacity. The results suggest that population viability analyses must consider not only environmental deterioration, but also the effects of deterioration on the trajectory of the decline in carrying capacity.
Data from: Body length of bony fishes was not a selective factor during the biggest mass extinction of all time
The Permo-Triassic mass extinction devastated life on land and in the sea, but it is not clear why some species survived and others went extinct. One explanation is that lineage loss during mass extinctions is a random process in which luck determines which species survive. Alternatively, a phylogenetic signal in extinction may indicate a selection process operating on phenotypic traits. Large body size has often emerged as an extinction risk factor in studies of modern extinction risk, but this is not so commonly the case for mass extinctions in deep time. Here, we explore the evolution of non-teleostean Actinopterygii (bony fishes) from the Devonian to the present day, and we concentrate on the Permo-Triassic mass extinction. We apply a variety of time-scaling metrics to date the phylogeny, and show that diversity peaked in the latest Permian and declined severely during the Early Triassic. In line with previous evidence, we find the phylogenetic signal of extinction increases across the mass extinction boundary: extinction of species in the earliest Triassic is more clustered across phylogeny compared to the more randomly distributed extinction signal in the late Permian. However, body length plays no role in differential survival or extinction of taxa across the boundary. In the case of fishes, size did not determine which species survived and which went extinct, but phylogenetic signal indicates that the mass extinction was not a random field of bullets.
Data from: Time-dependent speciation and extinction from phylogenies: a least squares approach
Molecular phylogenies contribute to the study of the patterns and processes of macroevolution even though past events (fossils) are not recorded in these data. In this paper, I consider the general time-dependent birth–death model in order to fit any model of temporal variation in speciation and extinction to phylogenies. I establish formulae to compute the expected cumulative distribution function of branching times for any model, and, building on previous published works, I derive maximum likelihood estimators. Some limitations of the likelihood approach are described, and a fitting procedure based on least squares is developed that alleviates the shortcomings of maximum likelihood in the present context. Parametric and nonparametric bootstrap procedures are developed to assess uncertainty in the parameter estimates, the latter version giving narrower confidence intervals and being faster to compute. I also present several general algorithms of tree simulation in continuous time. I illustrate the application of this approach with the analysis of simulated data sets, and two published phylogenies of primates (Catarrhinae) and lizards (Agamidae).
Variation in prey availability over time shaped the extinction dynamics of sabertoothed cats
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Figure 1 from: Rasnitsyn AP (2021) First Jurassic representative of the extinct family Peleserphidae (Hymenoptera, Proctotrupoidea). In: Proshchalykin MYu, Gokhman VE (Eds) Hymenoptera studies through space and time: A collection of papers dedicated to the 75th anniversary of Arkady S. Lelej. Journal of Hymenoptera Research 84: 295-300. https://doi.org/10.3897/jhr.84.65493
Figure 1 Arkadiserphus leleji sp. nov., holotype A general appearance, side view B interpretation (cly, clypeus; cx1, cx2, cx3, pro-, meso- and metacoxa; f1, f2, pro- and mesofemur; md, mandible; N1, N2, N3, pro-, meso- and metanotum; ppd, propodeum; scl2, mesoscutellum; ti3, hind tibia; tl3, hind trochantellus; I–VII, metasomal terga; 1–6, metasomal sterna) C fore wing (vein names standard). Scale bar: 1 mm.
Figure 4 from: Radchenko AG, Proshchalykin MYu (2021) New extinct ant genus (Hymenoptera, Formicidae, Myrmicinae) from late Eocene Rovno amber. In: Proshchalykin MYu, Gokhman VE (Eds) Hymenoptera studies through space and time: A collection of papers dedicated to the 75th anniversary of Arkady S. Lelej. Journal of Hymenoptera Research 84: 271-282. https://doi.org/10.3897/jhr.84.65238
Figure 4 Lelejus venustus gen. et sp. nov., holotype, male A forewing B hind wing. Scale bar: 0.5 mm.
Figure 3 from: Radchenko AG, Proshchalykin MYu (2021) New extinct ant genus (Hymenoptera, Formicidae, Myrmicinae) from late Eocene Rovno amber. In: Proshchalykin MYu, Gokhman VE (Eds) Hymenoptera studies through space and time: A collection of papers dedicated to the 75th anniversary of Arkady S. Lelej. Journal of Hymenoptera Research 84: 271-282. https://doi.org/10.3897/jhr.84.65238
Figure 3 Lelejus venustus gen. et sp. nov., holotype, male, mesosoma, lateral view. Scale bar: 0.5 mm.
Figure 1 from: Radchenko AG, Proshchalykin MYu (2021) New extinct ant genus (Hymenoptera, Formicidae, Myrmicinae) from late Eocene Rovno amber. In: Proshchalykin MYu, Gokhman VE (Eds) Hymenoptera studies through space and time: A collection of papers dedicated to the 75th anniversary of Arkady S. Lelej. Journal of Hymenoptera Research 84: 271-282. https://doi.org/10.3897/jhr.84.65238
Figure 1 Lelejus venustus gen. et sp. nov., holotype, male (AntWebCASENT0917546) A head, dorsal view B head and antennae, dorsal view C, D body, right lateral view (C); left dorso-lateral view (D). Scale bars: 0.1 mm (A); 0.5 mm (B–D).
Figure 2 from: Radchenko AG, Proshchalykin MYu (2021) New extinct ant genus (Hymenoptera, Formicidae, Myrmicinae) from late Eocene Rovno amber. In: Proshchalykin MYu, Gokhman VE (Eds) Hymenoptera studies through space and time: A collection of papers dedicated to the 75th anniversary of Arkady S. Lelej. Journal of Hymenoptera Research 84: 271-282. https://doi.org/10.3897/jhr.84.65238
Figure 2 Lelejus venustus gen. et sp. nov., holotype, male A head, lateral view B mandibles C petiole and postpetiole, lateral view. Scale bars: 0.25 mm (A); 0.1 mm (B, C).
Data from: Body length of bony fishes was not a selective factor during the biggest mass extinction of all time
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Data from: Time-dependent speciation and extinction from phylogenies: a least squares approach
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