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51 results for “integrated population model”
Data from: Estimating fish population abundance by integrating quantitative data on environmental DNA and hydrodynamic modeling
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Data from: Evaluating population viability and efficacy of conservation management using integrated population models
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Data from: An integrated population model for estimating the relative effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on a threatened population of steelhead trout
<p>This collection includes data on the abundance, age composition, and harvest of adult steelhead trout, as well as the numbers of juveniles released from a hatchery, for steelhead trout (<em>Oncorhyncus mykiss</em>) from the Skagit River in Washington, USA. It also includes estimates of the marine survival of hatchery-origin steelhead.</p>
Data from: Integrated modeling predicts shifts in waterbird population dynamics under climate change
Climate change has been identified as one of the most important drivers of wildlife population dynamics. The in-depth knowledge of the complex relationships between climate and population sizes through density dependent demographic processes is important for understanding and predicting population shifts under climate change, which requires integrated population models (IPMs) that unify the analyses of demography and abundance data. In this study we developed an IPM based on Gaussian approximation to dynamic N-mixture models for large scale population data. We then analyzed four decades (1972-2013) of Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) breeding population survey, band-recovery, and climate data covering a large spatial extent from North American prairies through boreal habitat to Alaska. We aimed to test the hypothesis that climate change will cause shifts in population dynamics if climatic effects on demographic parameters that have substantial contribution to population growth vary spatially. More specifically, we examined the spatial variation of climatic effects on density dependent population demography, identified the key demographic parameters that are influential to population growth, and forecasted population responses to climate change. Our results revealed that recruitment, which explained more variance of population growth than survival, was sensitive to the temporal variation of precipitation in the southern portion of the study area but not in the north. Survival, by contrast, was insensitive to climatic variation. We then forecasted a decrease in Mallard breeding population density in the south and an increase in the northwestern portion of the study area, indicating potential shifts in population dynamics under future climate change. Our results implied that different strategies need to be considered across regions to conserve waterfowl populations in the face of climate change. Our modelling approach can be adapted for other species and thus has wide application to understanding and predicting population dynamics in the presence of global change.
Data from: Integrating genetic analysis of mixed populations with a spatially-explicit population dynamics model
Inferring the dynamics of populations in time and space is a central challenge in ecology. Intra-specific structure (for example genetically distinct sub-populations or meta-populations) may require methods that can jointly infer the dynamics of multiple populations. This is of particular importance for harvested species, for which management must balance utilization of productive populations with protection of weak ones. Here we present a novel method for simultaneous learning about the spatio-temporal dynamics of multiple populations that combines genetic data with prior information about abundance and movement in an integrated population modelling approach. We apply the Bayesian genetic mixed stock analysis to 17 wild and 10 hatchery-reared Baltic salmon (S. salar) stocks, quantifying uncertainty in stock composition in time and space, and in population dynamics parameters such as migration timing and speed. Our results indicate that the commonly used "equal prior probabilities" assumption may not be appropriate for all mixed stock analyses. Incorporation of prior information about stock abundance and movement resulted in more precise and plausible estimates of mixture compositions in time and space. Inclusion of a population dynamics model also allowed robust interpolation of expected catch composition at areas and times with no genetic observations. The genetic data were informative about stock-specific movement patterns, updating priors for migration path, timing and speed. The model we present here forms the basis for optimizing the spatial and temporal allocation of harvest to support the management of mixed populations of migratory species.
Evaluating the effects of nest management on a recovering raptor using integrated population modeling
<p>Data and code from Cappello et al. 2024 Ecosphere</p> <p>Evaluating the effects of nest management on a recovering raptor using integrated population modeling.</p> <p>Abstract: Evaluating population responses to management is a crucial component of successful conservation programs. Models predicting population growth under different management scenarios can provide key insights into the efficacy of specific management actions both in reversing population decline and in maintaining recovered populations. Bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) conservation in the United States has seen many successes over the last 50 years, yet the extent to which the bald eagle population has recovered in Arizona, an important population within the Southwest region, remains an area of debate. Estimates of the species’ population trend and an evaluation of ongoing nest-level management practices are needed to inform management decisions. We developed a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) and population viability analysis (PVA) using a 36-year dataset to assess Arizona bald eagle population dynamics and their underlying demographic rates under current and possible future management practices. We estimated that the population grew from 77 females in 1993 to 180 females in 2022, an average yearly increase of 3%. Breeding sites that had trained personnel (i.e., nestwatchers) stationed at active nests to mitigate human disturbance had 28% higher reproductive output than nests without this protection. Uncertainty around population trends was high, but scenarios that continued the nestwatcher program were less likely to predict abundance declines than scenarios without nestwatchers. Here, the IPM-PVA framework provides a useful tool both for estimating the effectiveness of past management actions and for exploring the management needs of a delisted population, highlighting that continued management action may be necessary to maintain population viability even after meeting certain recovery criteria.</p>
Golden-cheeked warbler Integrated Population Model (IPM) data in Austin, TX (2011–2019)
<p>These data and code are associated with the publication in Ecosphere entitled "Urban land cover and El Nino events negatively impact population viability of an endangered North American songbird." We performed an integrated population model to evaluate the effect of climate patterns and urban land cover on the viability of an endangered wood-warbler breeding in central Texas. We used territory monitroing data from 2011–2019 to predict viability of the population 25 years into the future.</p>
Data from: Integrating genetic analysis of mixed populations with a spatially-explicit population dynamics model
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Data from: Integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea
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Data from: Genetic structure and post-glacial expansion of Cornus florida L. (Cornaceae): integrative evidence from phylogeography, population demographic history, and species distribution modeling
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Data from: Integrated population models: bias and inference
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Data from: An integrated population model for bird monitoring in North America
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Efficient use of harvest data: A size-class-structured integrated population model for exploited populations
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Data from: Land use change increases climatic vulnerability of migratory birds: insights from integrated population modelling
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Golden-cheeked warbler Integrated Population Model (IPM) data in Austin, TX (2011–2019)
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Data from: Integrated modeling predicts shifts in waterbird population dynamics under climate change
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Data from: Why we should care about movements: Using spatially explicit integrated population models to assess habitat source-sink dynamics
<p>1. Assessing the source-sink status of populations and habitats is of major importance for understanding population dynamics and for the management of natural populations. Sources produce a net surplus of individuals (per capita contribution to the metapopulation >1) and will be the main contributors for self-sustaining populations, whereas sinks produce a deficit (contribution < 1). However, making these types of assessments is generally hindered by the problem of separating mortality from permanent emigration, especially when survival probabilities as well as moved distances are habitat-specific.<br> 2. To address this long-standing issue, we propose a spatial multi-event Integrated Population Model (IPM) that incorporates habitat-specific dispersal distances of individuals. Using information about local movements, this IPM adjusts survival estimates for emigration outside the study area.<br> 3. Analyzing 24 years of data on a farmland passerine (the northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe) we assessed habitat-specific contributions, and hence the source-sink status and temporal variation of two key breeding habitats, while accounting for habitat- and sex-specific local dispersal distances of juveniles and adults. We then examined the sensitivity of the source-sink analysis by comparing results with and without accounting for these local movements.<br> 4. Estimates of first-year survival, and consequently habitat-specific contributions, were higher when local movement data were included. The consequences from including movement data were sex specific, with contribution shifting from sink to likely source in one habitat for males, and previously noted habitat differences for females disappearing.<br> 5. Assessing the source-sink status of habitats is extremely challenging. We show that our spatial IPM accounting for local movements can reduce biases in estimates of the contribution by different habitats, and thus reduce the overestimation of the occurrence of sink habitats. This approach allows combining all available data on demographic rates and movements, which will allow better assessment of source-sink dynamics and better informed conservation interventions.</p>
Data from: Integrated population modelling reveals a perceived source to be a cryptic sink
Demographic links among fragmented populations are commonly studied as source-sink dynamics, whereby source populations exhibit net recruitment and net emigration, while sinks suffer net mortality but enjoy net immigration. It is commonly assumed that large, persistent aggregations of individuals must be sources, but this ignores the possibility that they are sinks instead, buoyed demographically by immigration. We tested this assumption using Bayesian integrated population modelling of Greenland white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris) at their largest wintering site (Wexford, Ireland), combining capture–mark–recapture, census and recruitment data collected from 1982 to 2010. Management for this subspecies occurs largely on wintering areas; thus, study of source-sink dynamics of discrete regular wintering units provides unprecedented insights into population regulation and enables identification of likely processes influencing population dynamics at Wexford and among 70 other Greenland white-fronted goose wintering subpopulations. Using results from integrated population modelling, we parameterized an age-structured population projection matrix to determine the contribution of movement rates (emigration and immigration), recruitment and mortality to the dynamics of the Wexford subpopulation. Survival estimates for juvenile and adult birds at Wexford and adult birds elsewhere fluctuated over the 29-year study period, but were not identifiably different. However, per capita recruitment rates at Wexford in later years (post-1995) were identifiably lower than in earlier years (pre-1995). The observed persistence of the Wexford subpopulation was only possible with high rates of immigration, which exceeded emigration in each year. Thus, despite its apparent stability, Wexford has functioned as a sink over the entire study period. These results demonstrate that even large subpopulations can potentially be sinks, and that movement dynamics (e.g. immigration) among winters can dramatically obscure key processes driving subpopulation size. Further, novel population models which integrate capture–mark–recapture, census and recruitment data are essential to correctly ascribing source-sink status and accurately informing development of site-safeguard networks.
Data from: Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration
<p class="BodyA">Estimating the contribution of demographic parameters to changes in population growth is essential for understanding why populations fluctuate. Integrated Population Models (IPMs) offer a possibility to estimate contributions of additional demographic parameters, for which no data have been explicitly collected: typically immigration. Such parametersare often subsequently highlighted as important drivers of population growth. Yet, accuracy in estimating their temporal variation, and consequently their contribution to changes in population growth rate, has not been investigated.</p> <p class="BodyA">To quantify the magnitude and cause of potential biases when estimating the contribution of immigration using IPMs, we simulated data (using Northern Wheatear <i>Oenanthe oenanthe </i>population estimates) from controlled scenarios to examine potential biases and how they depend on IPM parameterization, formulation of priors, the level of temporal variation in immigration, and sample size. We also used empirical data on populations with known rates of immigration: Soay Sheep <i>Ovis aries</i> and Mauritius kestrel <i>Falco punctatus</i> with zero immigration and<i> </i>grey wolf <i>Canis lupus</i> in Scandinavia with<i> </i>near-zero immigration.</p> <p class="Default">IPMs strongly overestimated the contribution of immigration to changes in population growth in scenarios when immigration was simulated with zero temporal variation (proportion of variance attributed to immigration = 63% for the more constrained formulation and real sample size) and in the wild populations, where the true number of immigrants was zero or near-zero (Kestrel 19.1-98.2%, Sheep 4.2-36.1%, Wolf 84.0-99.2%). Although the estimation of immigration in the simulation study became more accurate with increasing temporal variation and sample size, it was often not possible to distinguish between an accurate estimation from data with high temporal variation versus an overestimation from data with low temporal variation. Unrealistically large sample sizes may be required to estimate the contribution of immigration well.</p> <p class="Body">To minimise the risk of overestimating the contribution of immigration (or any additional parameter) in IPMs, we recommend to: (i) look for evidence of variation in immigration before investigating its contribution to population growth, (ii) simulate and model data for comparison to the real data, and (iii) use explicit data on immigration when possible.</p>
An integrated population model of a high-density coyote population in South Carolina
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Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
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DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.