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70 results for “Climatic suitability”
Bees travelling south: climate-induced range shifts and suitable habitat losses in south-eastern neotropics
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Data from: Future climatically suitable areas for bats in South Asia
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Global Agricultural Land Resources – A High Resolution Suitability Evaluation and Its Perspectives until 2100 under Climate Change Conditions (v2.0)
<p><strong>Agricultural land resources – a global suitability evaluation</strong></p> <p><em>An inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. Within the context of the GLUES project, researchers at the Ludwig-Maximilians University (LMU) investigated the global agricultural suitability of land under changing climate conditions at high spatial resolution. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes land use/cover change and trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. In order to ensure food security, agricultural potentials need to be used more efficiently in the future. Therefore, the agricultural suitability of land are important information e.g. in order to identify todays suitable areas and possible future changes. The potential suitability of todays forested and protected areas can be used to identify possible hotspots of land use/cover change. Therefore, LMU is working on improving the knowledge of global agricultural potentials of land and better understanding the interdependencies between ecological and socio-economic systems which are driving land use/cover change.</em></p> <p><strong>Determining Agricultural Suitability</strong></p> <p>Local climate, soil and topography determine the available energy, water and nutrient supply for agricultural crops and thus their natural suitability. In order to allow for computing the natural agricultural constraints on the globe at 30 arc seconds (1km) spatial resolution, the following high resolution data were applied:</p> <p>Daily data for temperature, precipitation and solar radiation from the global climate model ECHAM5. Soil data comes from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD). Considered soil properties are texture, proportion of coarse fragments and gypsum, base saturation, pH content, organic carbon content, salinity, sodicity. Topography data was applied from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Irrigation has strong impact on the crop’s suitability. It is considered on todays irrigated areas as given by the FAO Aquastat Global Maps of Irrigated Areas (GMIA) dataset. The determinant factors are contrasted with the crop-specific requirements, using a fuzzy-logic approach. The crop requirements are taken from literature.</p> <p><strong>Agricultural Suitability</strong></p> <p>General agricultural suitability at a spatial resolution of 30 arcsec, considering rainfed conditions and irrigation on currently irrigated areas. The agricultural suitability represents for each pixel the maximum suitability value of the considered 16 plants. The dataset contains four time periods (1961-1990, 1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2071-2100).</p> <p><strong>Suitability Change due to Climate until 2100</strong></p> <p>Change in agricultural suitability and crop suitability due to climate change for SRES A1B scenario conditions for 16 crops between 1981-2010 and 2071-2100 at a spatial resolution of 30 arcsec.</p> <p><strong>Multiple Cropping</strong></p> <p>Potential number of suitable crop cycles for 16 crops at a spatial resolution of 30 arcsec, considering rainfed conditions and irrigation on currently irrigated areas. The dataset contains four time periods (1961-1990, 1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2071-2100).</p> <p><strong>Growing Cycle</strong></p> <p>Start of the growing cycle for 16 crops at a spatial resolution of 30 arcsec, considering rainfed conditions and irrigation on currently irrigated areas. In case of multiple cropping, the start of the first growing cycle is shown. The dataset contains four time periods (1961-1990, 1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2071-2100).</p> <p><strong>Further information</strong></p> <p>Detailled information are available in the following publication:<br> Zabel F., Putzenlechner B., Mauser W. (2014): <strong>Global agricultural land resources – a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions. </strong> Online available: <a href="http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0107522">PLOS ONE</a>. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0107522</p> <p><strong>Improvements in v2.0</strong></p> <p>Compared to previous versions, v2.0 uses updated input data for soil and minor improvements of the statistical downscaling and the bias correction of the climate model data.</p> <p><strong>Contact</strong></p> <p>Please contact: Dr. Florian Zabel, <a href="mailto:f.zabel@lmu.de">f.zabel@lmu.de</a>, Department für Geographie, LMU München (<a href="http://www.geografie.uni-muenchen.de">www.geografie.uni-muenchen.de</a>)</p>
Data from: Combining US and Canadian forest inventories to assess habitat suitability and migration potential of 25 tree species under climate change
Aim: To evaluate current and future dynamics of 25 tree species spanning USA and Canada. Location: USA and Canada Methods: We combine, for the first time, the species compositions from relative importance derived from the USA's Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) with gridded estimates based on Canada's National Forest Inventory (NFI-kNN) ) based photo plot data to evaluate future habitats and colonization potentials for 25 tree species. Using 21 climatic variables under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, we model climatic habitat suitability (HQ) within a consensus based multi-model ensemble regression approach. A migration model is used to assess colonization likelihoods (CL) for ~100 years and combined with HQ to evaluate the various combinations of HQ+CL outcomes for the 25 species. Results: At a continental scale, many species in the conterminous USA lose suitable climatic habitat (especially under RCP 8.5) while Canada and USA's Alaska gain climate habitat. For most species, even under optimistic migration rates, only a small portion of overall future suitable habitat is projected to be naturally colonized in ~ 100 years, although considerable variation exists among species. Main conclusions: For the species examined here, habitat losses were primarily experienced along southern range limits, while habitat gains were associated with northern range limits (especially under RCP 8.5). However, for many species, southern range limits are projected to remain relatively intact, albeit with reduced habitat quality. Our models predict that only a small portion of the climatic habitat generated by climate change will be colonized naturally by the end of the current century - even with optimistic tree migration rates. However, considerable variation among species points to the need for significant management efforts, including assisted migration, for economic or ecological reasons. Our work highlights the need to employ range-wide data, evaluate colonization potentials, and enhance cross-border collaborations.
Data from: Testing macroecological abundance patterns: the relationship between local abundance and range size, range position and climatic suitability among European vascular plants
<p><strong>Aim: </strong>A fundamental question in macroecology centres around understanding the relationship between species' local abundance and their distribution in geographic and climatic space (i.e. the multi-dimensional climatic space or climatic niche). Here, we tested three macroecological hypotheses that link local abundance to the following range properties: (1) the abundance-range size relationship, (2) the abundance-range centre relationship, and (3) the abundance-suitability relationship.<br> <br> <strong>Location: </strong>Europe<br> <br> <strong>Taxon: </strong>Vascular plants<br> <br> <strong>Methods:</strong> Distribution range maps were extracted from the Chorological Database to derive information on the range and niche sizes of 517 European vascular plant species. To estimate local abundance, we assessed samples from 744,513 vegetation plots in the European Vegetation Archive, where local species' abundance is available as plant cover per plot. We then calculated the 'centrality', i.e. the distance between the location of the abundance observation and each species' range centre in geographic and climatic space. The climatic suitability of plot locations was estimated using coarse-grain species distribution models (SDMs). The relationships between centrality or climatic suitability with abundance were tested using linear models and quantile regression. We summarized the overall trend across species' regression slopes from linear models and quantile regression using a meta-analytical approach.<br> <br> <strong>Results: </strong>We did not detect any positive relationships between a species' mean local abundance and the size of its geographic range or climatic niche. Contrasting yet significant correlations were detected between abundance and centrality or climatic suitability among species.<br> <br> <strong>Main conclusions:</strong> Our results do not provide unequivocal support for any of the relationships tested, demonstrating that determining properties of species' distributions at large grains and extents might be of limited use for predicting local abundance, including current SDM approaches. We conclude that environmental factors influencing individual performance and local abundance are likely to differ from those factors driving plant species' distribution at coarse resolution and broad geographic extents.</p>
Community science validates climate suitability projections from ecological niche modeling
<p><span>Climate change poses an intensifying threat to many bird species, and projections of future climate suitability provide insight into how species may shift their distributions in response. Climate suitability is characterized using ecological niche models (ENMs), which correlate species occurrence data with current environmental covariates and project future distributions using the modeled relationships together with climate predictions. Despite their widespread adoption, ENMs rely on several assumptions that are rarely validated <i>in situ </i>and can be highly sensitive to modeling decisions, precluding their reliability in conservation decision-making. Using data from a novel, large-scale community science program, we developed dynamic occupancy models to validate near-term climate suitability projections for bluebirds and nuthatches in summer and winter. We estimated occupancy, colonization, and extinction dynamics across species' ranges in the United States in relation to projected climate suitability in the 2020s, and used a Gibbs variable selection approach to quantify evidence of species-climate relationships. We also included a Bird Conservation Region strata-level random effect to examine among-strata variation in occupancy that may be attributable to land-use and ecoregional differences. Across species and seasons, we found strong evidence that initial occupancy and colonization were positively related to 2020 climate suitability, illustrating an independent validation of projections from ENMs across a large geographic area. </span><span>Random strata effects revealed that occupancy probabilities were generally higher than average in core areas and lower than average in peripheral areas of species' ranges, and served as a first step in identifying spatial patterns of occupancy from these community science data. </span><span>Our findings lend much-needed support to the use of ENM projections for addressing questions about potential climate-induced changes in species' occupancy dynamics. More broadly, </span>our work highlights the value of community scientist observations for ground-truthing projections from statistical models and for refining our understanding of the processes shaping species' distributions under a changing climate.</p>
Data from: Quaternary climatic fluctuations and resulting climatically suitable areas for Eurasian owlets
Aim: The nested pattern in the geographical distribution of three Indian owlets, resulting in a gradient of endemicity, is hypothesized to be an impact of historical climate change. In current time, the Forest Owlet Athene blewitti is endemic to central India, and its range is encompassed within the ranges of the Jungle Owlet Glaucidium radiatum (distributed through South Asia) and Spotted Owlet Athene brama (distributed through Iran, South and Southeast Asia). Another phylogenetically close species, Little Owl Athene noctua, which is largely Palearctic in distribution, is hypothesized to have undergone severe range reduction during the Last Glacial Maximum, showing a post-glacial expansion. The present study tests hypotheses on the possible role of Quaternary climatic fluctuations in shaping geographical ranges of owlets. Methods: We used primary field observations, open access data, and climatic niche modeling to construct suitable climatic niches of four owlets for four periods, the Last Interglacial (~120-140 Ka), Last Glacial Maximum (~22 Ka), Mid-Holocene (~6 Ka) and Current (1960-1990). We performed climatic niche extent, breadth and overlap analyses, and tested if climatically suitable areas for owlets are nested in a relatively stable climate. Results: Climatically suitable areas for all owlets examined underwent cycles of expansion and reduction or a gradual expansion or reduction since the Last Interglacial. The Indian owlets show significant climatic niche overlap in the current period. Climatically suitable areas for Little Owl shifted southwards during the Last Glacial Maximum and expanded northwards in the post-glaciation period. For each owlet, the modeled climatic niches were nested in climatically stable areas. Main Conclusions: The study highlights the impact of Quaternary climate change in shaping the present distribution of owlets. This is relevant to the current scenario of climate change and global warming and can help inform conservation strategies, especially for the extremely range-restricted Forest Owlet.
Worldclim 2.1 versus Worldclim 1.4: climatic niche and grid resolution affect between-version mismatches in habitat suitability models predictions across Europe
<p>The influence of climate on the distribution of taxa has been extensively investigated in the last two decades through Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs). In this context, the Worldclim database represents an invaluable data source as it provides worldwide climate surfaces for both historical and future time horizons. Thousands of HSMs-based papers have been published taking advantage of Worldclim 1.4, the first online version of this repository. In 2017, Worldclim 2.1 was released. Here, we evaluated spatially explicit prediction mismatch at continental scale, focusing on Europe, between HSMs fitted using climate surfaces from the two Worldclim versions (between-version differences). To this aim, we simulated occurrence probability and presence-absence across Europe of four virtual species (VS) with differing climate-occurrence relationships. For each VS, we fitted HSMs upon uncorrelated bioclimatic variables derived from each Worldclim version at three grid resolutions. For each factor combination, HSMs attaining sufficient discrimination performance on spatially independent test data were projected across Europe under current conditions and various future scenarios, and importance scores of the single variables were computed. HSMs failed in accurately retrieving the simulated climate-occurrence relationships for the climate-tolerant VS and the one occurring under a narrow combination of climatic conditions. Under current climate, noticeable between-version prediction mismatch emerged across most of Europe for these two VSs, whose simulated suitability mainly depended upon diurnal or yearly variability in temperature; differently, between-version differences were more clustered toward areas showing extreme values, like mountainous massifs or southern regions, for VSs responding to average temperature and precipitation trends. Under future climate, the chosen emission scenarios and Global Climate Models did not evidently influence between-version prediction discrepancies, while grid resolution synergistically interacted with VSs' niche characteristics in determining extent of such differences. Our findings could help in re-evaluating previous biodiversity-related works relying on geographical predictions from Worldclim-based HSMs.</p>
FIGURE 7. Sample sites and climatic suitability for all Alpinobombus species combined estimated using Maxent from climate variables for the year 2000 in The arctic and alpine bumblebees of the subgenus Alpinobombus revised from integrative assessment of species' gene coalescents and morphology (Hymenoptera, Apidae, Bombus)
FIGURE 7. Sample sites and climatic suitability for all Alpinobombus species combined estimated using Maxent from climate variables for the year 2000. Bright yellow and brown areas show where the logistic prediction of occurrence is p> 0.5 (the outlier records with exceptionally low probabilities of suitability were excluded in step-wise iterations); brown spots show all consistent Alpinobombus site records; '?' shows the five records that are in climatically outlying sites. Polar projection, North Pole (starred) at the centre of the map, international boundaries and the Arctic Circle shown as narrow grey lines.
Data from: Future suitability of habitat in a migratory ungulate under climate change
With climate change, the effect of global warming on snow cover is expected to cause range expansion and enhance habitat suitability for species at their northern distribution limits. However, how this depend on landscape topography and sex in size-dimorphic species remains uncertain, and is further complicated for migratory animals following climate-driven seasonal resource fluctuations across vast landscapes. Using 11 years of data from a partially migratory ungulate at their northern distribution ranges, the red deer (Cervus elaphus), we predicted sex-specific summer and winter habitat suitability in diverse landscapes under medium and severe global warming. We found large increases in future winter habitat suitability, resulting in expansion of winter ranges as currently unsuitable habitat became suitable. Even moderate warming decreased snow cover substantially, with no suitability difference between warming scenarios. Winter ranges will hence not expand linearly with warming, even for species at their northern distribution limits. Although less pronounced than in winter, summer ranges also expanded and more so under severe warming. Summer habitat suitability was positively correlated with landscape topography and ranges expanded more for females than males. Our study highlights the complexity of predicting future habitat suitability for conservation and management of size-dimorphic, migratory species under global warming.
FIG. 2 in Clearing up the Crystal Ball: Understanding Uncertainty in Future Climate Suitability Projections for Amphibians
FIG. 2.—Mean predicted change in suitable climate for amphibian species by citation and model parameters from the meta-analysis. Points represent means and bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Mean predicted change in suitable climate was calculated for each amphibian order within each study for each of the model settings, including Representative Concentration Pathway, Year, and Dispersal Limitation. Triangles indicate estimates from the case study, and circles indicate all other studies. A color version of this figure is available online.
FIG. 1 in Clearing up the Crystal Ball: Understanding Uncertainty in Future Climate Suitability Projections for Amphibians
FIG. 1.—Map of countries for which suitable climate has been projected under future climate scenarios for at least one amphibian species. Colors represent the number of studies in which a given country was included. A color version of this figure is available online.
FIG. 3 in Clearing up the Crystal Ball: Understanding Uncertainty in Future Climate Suitability Projections for Amphibians
FIG. 3.—Percent change in climate suitability predicted for each species in the case study. For each species, predicted percent change in climate suitability is shown for the year 2050 under 13 general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways (2.6, 8.5) climate scenarios for both the default Maxent species distribution models (SDMs; regularization multiplier ¼ 1; open red boxes) and the best-fit SDM (Akaike information criterion; ΔAICc ¼ 0; shaded blue boxes) for three levels of dispersal: no dispersal, limited, or unlimited. Boxplots show median, interquartile range, and minimum and maximum values. A color version of this figure is available online.
Terrain- and climate-based habitat suitability indices for the reef-building coral Lophelia pertusa on the Blake Plateau (southeastern United States)
<p>Habitat suitability model outputs from Gasbarro et al. (2022) covering the Blake Plateau region of the southeastern United States margin. These include raster surfaces of ensemble mean, median, and standard deviation habitat suitability indices. Bathymetry-derived terrain variables were used to generate the terrain suitability layers, while climate model outputs were used to generate the climatic suitability layers. Rasters are in WGS84. See Gasbarro et al. (2022) for full modeling details.</p>
Data from: Climate suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity
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Climate change modelling indicates extensive range contractions for a scarce southern African endemic and minimal protected area network within its future climatically suitable range
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Data from: Substantial reduction in thermo-suitable microhabitat for a rainforest marsupial under climate change
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Data from: Future suitability of habitat in a migratory ungulate under climate change
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Worldclim 2.1 versus Worldclim 1.4: climatic niche and grid resolution affect between-version mismatches in habitat suitability models predictions across Europe
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Data from: Testing macroecological abundance patterns: the relationship between local abundance and range size, range position and climatic suitability among European vascular plants
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