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114 results for “Hierarchical Modelling”
Estimating wildlife populations and their dynamics using multiple data sources and a hierarchical integrated model: the case of California's black bears
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Data from: A test of the hierarchical model of litter decomposition
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Hierarchical multi-grain models improve descriptions of species’ environmental associations, distribution, and abundance
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Long-term research and hierarchical models reveal consistent fitness costs of being the last egg in a clutch
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Data from: Disentangling elevational richness: a multi-scale hierarchical Bayesian occupancy model of Colorado ant communities
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Replicate analysis from: Measuring complexity for hierarchical models using effective degrees of freedom
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Data from: A hierarchical model for external electrical control of an insect, accounting for inter-individual variation of muscle force properties
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Identification of determinants of pollen donor fecundity using the hierarchical neighborhood model
<p>Individual differences in male reproductive success drive genetic drift and natural selection, altering genetic variation and phenotypic trait distributions in future generations. Therefore, identifying the determinants of reproductive success is important for understanding the ecology and evolution of plants. Here, based on the spatially-explicit mating model (the neighborhood model), we develop a hierarchical probability model that links co-dominant genotypes of offspring and candidate parents with the phenotypic determinants of male reproductive success. The model accounts for pollen dispersal, genotyping errors as well as individual variation in selfing, pollen immigration, and differentiation of immigrant pollen pools. Unlike the classic neighborhood model approach, our approach is specially designed to account for excessive variation (overdispersion) in male reproductive success. Using the Bayesian framework, we implemented the estimation method that, among others, allows the selection of phenotypic variables important for male reproductive success as well as the computation of the fraction of total variance in fecundity (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup>) explained by selected variables. Computer simulations showed that our method outperforms both the classic neighborhood model and the two-step approach, where individual fecundities and the effects of phenotypic variables are estimated in separate steps. The analysis of two data examples showed that in wind-pollinated trees, male reproductive success depends on both the amount of produced pollen and the ability to pollen spread. However, despite that the tree size was positively correlated with male fecundity, it explained only a fraction of the total variance in reproductive success, indicating the presence of significant unmeasured factors. Finally, case studies highlighted the importance of accounting for pollen dispersal in the estimation of determinants of plant reproductive success.</p>
Data from: Hierarchical Bayesian model reveals the distributional shifts of Arctic marine mammals
Aim: Our aim involved developing a method to analyze spatiotemporal distributions of Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) using heterogeneous open source data, such as scientific papers and open repositories. Another aim was to quantitatively estimate the effects of environmental covariates on AMMs' distributions and to analyze whether their distributions have shifted along with environmental changes. Location: Arctic shelf area. The Kara Sea. Methods: Our literature search focused on survey data regarding polar bears (Ursus maritimus), Atlantic walruses (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus) and ringed seals (Phoca hispida). We mapped the data on a grid and built a hierarchical Poisson point process model to analyze species' densities. The heterogeneous data lacked information on survey intensity and we could model only the relative density of each species. We explained relative densities with environmental covariates and random effects reflecting excess spatiotemporal variation and the unknown, varying sampling effort. The relative density of polar bears was explained also by the relative density of seals. Results: The most important covariates explaining AMMs' relative densities were ice concentration and distance to the coast, and regarding polar bears, also the relative density of seals. The results suggest that due to the decrease in the average ice concentration, the relative densities of polar bears and walruses slightly decreased or stayed constant during the 17-yearlong study period, whereas seals shifted their distribution from the Eastern to the Western Kara Sea. Main conclusions: Point process modelling is a robust methodology to estimate distributions from heterogeneous observations, providing spatially explicit information about ecosystems and thus serves advances for conservation efforts in the Arctic. In a simple trophic system, a distribution model of a top predator benefits from utilizing prey species' distributions compared to a solely environmental model. The decreasing ice cover seems to have led to changes in AMMs' distributions in the marginal Arctic region.
Data from: Joint modelling of multi-scale animal movement data using hierarchical hidden Markov models
1. Hidden Markov models are prevalent in animal movement modelling, where they are widely used to infer behavioural modes and their drivers from various types of telemetry data. To allow for meaningful inference, observations need to be equally spaced in time, or otherwise regularly sampled, where the corresponding temporal resolution strongly affects what kind of behaviours can be inferred from the data. 2. Recent advances in biologging technology have led to a variety of novel telemetry sensors which often collect data from the same individual simultaneously at different time scales, e.g. step lengths obtained from GPS tags every hour, dive depths obtained from time-depth recorders once per dive, or accelerations obtained from accelerometers several times per second. However, to date, statistical machinery to address the corresponding complex multi-stream and multi-scale data is lacking. 3. We propose hierarchical hidden Markov models as a versatile statistical framework that naturally accounts for differing temporal resolutions across multiple variables. In these models, the observations are regarded as stemming from multiple, connected behavioural processes, each of which operates at the time scale at which the corresponding variables were observed. 4. By jointly modelling multiple data streams, collected at different temporal resolutions, corresponding models can be used to infer behavioural modes at multiple time scales, and in particular help to draw a much more comprehensive picture of an animal's movement patterns, e.g. with regard to long-term vs. short-term movement strategies. 5. The suggested approach is illustrated in two real-data applications, where we jointly model i) coarse-scale horizontal and fine-scale vertical Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) movements throughout the English Channel, and ii) coarse-scale horizontal movements and corresponding fine-scale accelerations of a horn shark (Heterodontus francisci) tagged off the Californian coast.
Data from: Multi-DICE: R package for comparative population genomic inference under hierarchical co-demographic models of independent single-population size changes
Population genetic data from multiple taxa can address comparative phylogeographic questions about community-scale response to environmental shifts, and a useful strategy to this end is to employ hierarchical co-demographic models that directly test multi-taxa hypotheses within a single, unified analysis while benefiting in statistical power from aggregating datasets. This approach has been applied to classical phylogeographic datasets such as mitochondrial barcodes as well as reduced-genome polymorphism datasets that can yield 10,000s of SNPs, produced by emergent technologies such as RAD-seq and GBS. A strategy for the latter had been accomplished by adapting the site frequency spectrum to a novel summarization of population genomic data across multiple taxa called the aggregate site frequency spectrum (aSFS), which potentially can be deployed under various inferential frameworks including approximate Bayesian computation, random forest, and composite likelihood optimization. Here, we introduce the R package Multi-DICE, a wrapper program that exploits existing simulation software for straight-forward and flexible execution of hierarchical model-based inference using the aSFS, which is derived from genomic-scale data, as well as mitochondrial data. We validate several novel software features such as applying alternative inferential frameworks, enforcing a minimal threshold of time surrounding event pulses, and specifying flexible hyperprior distributions. In sum, Multi-DICE provides comparative analysis within the familiar R environment while allowing a high degree of user customization, and will thus serve as a valuable tool for comparative phylogeography and population genomics.
Data from: A hierarchical model of whole assemblage island biogeography
Island systems have long played a central role in the development of ecology and evolutionary biology. However, while many empirical studies suggest species differ in vital biogeographic rates, such as dispersal abilities, quantitative methods have had difficulty incorporating such differences into analyses of whole-assemblages. In particular, differences in dispersal abilities among species can cause variation in the spatial clustering and localization of species distributions. Here, we develop a single, hierarchical Bayes, assemblage-wide model of 252 bird species distributions on the islands of Northern Melanesia and use it to investigate a) whether dispersal limitation structures bird assemblages across the archipelago, b) whether species differ in dispersal ability, and c) test the hypothesis that wing aspect ratio, a trait linked to flight efficiency, predicts differences inferred by the model. Consistent with island biogeographic theory, we found that individual species were more likely to occur on islands with greater area, and on islands near to other islands where the species also occurred. However, species showed wide variation in the importance and spatial scale of these clustering effects. The importance of clustering in distributions was greater for species with low wing aspect ratios, and the spatial scale of clustering was also smaller for low aspect ratio species. These findings suggest that the spatial configuration of islands interacts with species dispersal ability to affect contemporary distributions, and that these species differences are detectable in occurrence patterns. More generally, our study demonstrates a quantitative, hierarchical approach that can be used to model the influence of dispersal heterogeneity in diverse assemblages and test hypotheses for how traits drive dispersal differences, providing a framework for deconstructing ecological assemblages and their drivers.
Data from: Tropical tree height and crown allometries for the Barro Colorado Nature Monument, Panama: a comparison of alternative hierarchical models incorporating interspecific variation in relation to life history traits
Tree allometric relationships are widely employed for estimating forest biomass and production and are basic building blocks of dynamic vegetation models. In tropical forests, allometric relationships are often modeled by fitting scale-invariant power functions to pooled data from multiple species, an approach that fails to capture changes in scaling during ontogeny and physical limits to maximum tree size and that ignores interspecific differences in allometry. Here, we analyzed allometric relationships of tree height (9884 individuals) and crown area (2425) with trunk diameter for 162 species from the Barro Colorado Nature Monument, Panama. We fit nonlinear, hierarchical models informed by species traits – wood density, mean sapling growth, or sapling mortality – and assessed the performance of three alternative functional forms: the scale-invariant power function and the saturating Weibull and generalized Michaelis–Menten (gMM) functions. The relationship of tree height with trunk diameter was best fit by a saturating gMM model in which variation in allometric parameters was related to interspecific differences in sapling growth rates, a measure of regeneration light demand. Light-demanding species attained taller heights at comparatively smaller diameters as juveniles and had shorter asymptotic heights at larger diameters as adults. The relationship of crown area with trunk diameter was best fit by a power function model incorporating a weak positive relationship between crown area and species-specific wood density. The use of saturating functional forms and the incorporation of functional traits in tree allometric models is a promising approach for improving estimates of forest biomass and productivity. Our results provide an improved basis for parameterizing tropical plant functional types in vegetation models.
Data from: Using camera trapping and hierarchical occupancy modelling to evaluate the spatial ecology of an African mammal community
Emerging conservation paradigms have shifted from single to multi-species approaches focused on sustaining biodiversity. Multi-species hierarchical occupancy modelling provides a method for assessing biodiversity while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. We analysed camera trapping data with multi-species models using a Bayesian approach to estimate the distributions of a terrestrial mammal community in northern Botswana and evaluate community, group, and species-specific responses to human disturbance and environmental variables. Groupings were based on two life-history traits: body size (small, medium, large and extra-large) and diet (carnivore, omnivore and herbivore). We photographed 44 species of mammals over 6607 trap nights. Camera station-specific estimates of species richness ranged from 8 to 27 unique species, and species had a mean occurrence probability of 0·32 (95% credible interval = 0·21–0·45). At the community level, our model revealed species richness was generally greatest in floodplains and grasslands and with increasing distances into protected wildlife areas. Variation among species' responses was explained in part by our species groupings. The positive influence of protected areas was strongest for extra-large species and herbivores, while medium-sized species actually increased in the non-protected areas. The positive effect of grassland/floodplain cover, alternatively, was strongest for large species and carnivores and weakest for small species and herbivores, suggesting herbivore diversity is promoted by habitat heterogeneity. Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight the importance of protected areas and grasslands in maintaining biodiversity in southern Africa. We demonstrate the utility of hierarchical Bayesian models for assessing community, group and individual species' responses to anthropogenic and environmental variables. This framework can be used to map areas of high conservation value and predict impacts of land-use change. Our approach is particularly applicable to the growing number of camera trap studies world-wide, and we suggest broader application globally will likely result in reduced costs, improved efficiency and increased knowledge of wildlife communities.
Data from: A spatially explicit hierarchical model to characterize population viability
Many of the processes that govern the viability of animal populations vary spatially, yet population viability analyses (PVAs) that account explicitly for spatial variation are rare. We develop a PVA model that incorporates autocorrelation into the analysis of local demographic information to produce spatially explicit estimates of demography and viability at relatively fine spatial scales across a large spatial extent. We use a hierarchical, spatial autoregressive model for capture-recapture data from multiple locations to obtain spatially explicit estimates of adult survival (Φad), juvenile survival (Φjuv), and juvenile-to-adult transition rates (ψ), and a spatial autoregressive model for recruitment data from multiple locations to obtain spatially explicit estimates of recruitment (R). We combine local estimates of demographic rates in stage-structured population models to estimate the rate of population change (λ), then use estimates of λ (and its uncertainty) to forecast changes in local abundance and produce spatially explicit estimates of viability (probability of extirpation, Pex). We apply the model to demographic data for the Sonoran desert tortoise (Gopherus morafkai) collected across its geographic range in Arizona. There was modest spatial variation in λ (0.94–1.03), which reflected spatial variation in Φad (0.85–0.95), Φjuv (0.70–0.89), and ψ (0.07–0.13). Recruitment data were too sparse for spatially explicit estimates, therefore we used a range-wide estimate (R = 0.32 one-year old females per female per year). Spatial patterns in demographic rates were complex, but Φad, Φjuv, and λ tended to be lower and ψ higher in the northwestern portion of the range. Spatial patterns in Pex varied with local abundance. For local abundances > 500, Pex was near zero (Pex approached one in the northwestern portion of the range and remained low elsewhere. When local abundances were Pex > 0.25). This approach to PVA offers the potential to reveal spatial patterns in demography and viability that can inform conservation and management at multiple spatial scales, provide insight into scale-related investigations in population ecology, and improve basic ecological knowledge of landscape-level phenomena.
Data from: Use of classical bird census transects as spatial replicates for hierarchical modeling of an avian community
New monitoring programs are often designed with some form of temporal replication to deal with imperfect detection by means of occupancy models. However, classical bird census data from earlier times often lack temporal replication, precluding detection-corrected inferences about occupancy. Historical data have a key role in many ecological studies intended to document range shifts, and so need to be made comparable with present‐day data by accounting for detection probability. We analyze a classical bird census conducted in the region of Murcia (SE Spain) in 1991 and 1992 and propose a solution to estimating detection probability for such historical data when used in a community occupancy model: the spatial replication of subplots nested within larger plots allows estimation of detection probability. In our study, the basic sample units were 1‐km transects, which were considered spatial replicates in two aggregation schemes. We fit two Bayesian multispecies occupancy models, one for each aggregation scheme, and evaluated the linear and quadratic effect of forest cover and temperature, and a linear effect of precipitation on species occupancy probabilities. Using spatial rather than temporal replicates allowed us to obtain individual species occupancy probabilities and species richness accounting for imperfect detection. Species‐specific occupancy and community size decreased with increasing annual mean temperature. Both aggregation schemes yielded estimates of occupancy and detectability that were highly correlated for each species, so in the design of future surveys ecological reasons and cost‐effective sampling designs should be considered to select the most suitable aggregation scheme. In conclusion, the use of spatial replication may often allow historical survey data to be applied formally hierarchical occupancy models and be compared with modern‐day data of the species community to analyze global change process.
Defaunated and invaded insular tropical rainforests will not recover alone: recruitment limitation factors disentangled by hierarchical models of spontaneous and assisted regeneration
<ol> <li>Most tropical forests are now severely degraded and their ability to recover is highly dependent on frugivores which ensure seed dispersal for most woody plants. The global collapse of large vertebrates therefore raises major concerns about tropical forest succession, but few field studies have been conducted to disentangle recruitment limitations during disrupted succession.</li> <li>This study took place on Réunion (Mascarenes) where all large native frugivores have been extinct since human colonisation in 1665 and where multiple invasions threaten native ecosystems. We set up 20 experimental blocks on a lava flow dated back to 1800, in plant-impoverished post-defaunation vegetation bordered by old-growth forests. We assessed fecundity, seed dispersal and seedling recruitment of the complete fleshy-fruited plant community and used Bayesian analyses to disentangle the impact of multiple factors on these key processes. In the same blocks, we sowed four native trees assumed to be disperserless to test their capacity to establish, controlling for two additional post-dispersal limitations (seed predation and competition with invasive plants).</li> <li>On the flow, small-seeded native plants were fairly dispersed but did not recruit, probably due to strong competition with invasive plants; the few native species that recruited somehow were mostly medium-seeded plants that were still dispersed; large-seeded plants were absent from seed rain (which shows that invasive frugivores did not replace extinct ones) and subsequently from spontaneous recruitment. Instead, some alien plants, notably the tiny-seeded highly-dispersed <em>Clidemia hirta</em> and the medium-seeded <em>Psidium cattleianum</em> largely dominated seedling recruitment. Native plants recruited better at the forest margin, including some large-seeded species nearby mother trees.</li> <li>Sown large-seeded species were able to emerge and survive in all plots whatever the treatment, which demonstrates that dispersal loss was the primary cause of regeneration failure on the flow. </li> <li> <em>Synthesis</em><strong>.</strong> The strong modulation of the establishment capacity of native plants by seed mass shows that invasive plants win by forfeit of large-seeded plants after native frugivores loss. Our study emphasises the fundamental role of dispersal loss and competition with invasive plants in the disruption of ecological succession, as well as the urgency of restoring seed dispersal and strengthening biosecurity regulations.</li> </ol>
A Hierarchical Model of Accelerating Factors to Promote Urban Renewal and Reconstruction of Unsafe and Old Buildings
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Data files for the article "Bayesian hierarchical modeling of sea level extremes in the Finnish coastal region"
<p>This repository contains R data files required for reproducing the results from the article by Räty et al (2021) "Bayesian hierarchical modeling of sea level extremes in the Finnish coastal region", submitted to Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. See the README file for more details on the content of the files.</p>
Data for: Inferring spatially-varying animal movement characteristics using a hierarchical continuous-time velocity model
<p>Understanding the spatial dynamics of animal movement is an essential component of maintaining ecological connectivity, conserving key habitats, and mitigating the impacts of anthropogenic disturbance. Altered movement and migratory patterns are often an early warning sign of the effects of environmental disturbance, and a precursor to population declines. Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian framework based on Gaussian processes for analysing the spatial characteristics of animal movement. At the heart of our approach is a novel covariance kernel that links the spatially-varying parameters of a continuous-time velocity model with GPS locations from multiple individuals. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework by first applying it to a synthetic dataset, then by analysing telemetry data from the Serengeti wildebeest migration. Through application of our approach, we are able to identify the key pathways of the wildebeest migration as well as revealing the impacts of environmental features on movement behaviour.</p>
ScienceDex guides
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These curated guides explain access requirements, typical timelines, costs, and reuse considerations for widely used research datasets.
Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
ABODe is a University of Edinburgh DataShare dataset for behavior classification in group-housed mice using home-cage video, identities, bounding boxes, ground-plate positions, and annotator labels.
DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.