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198 results for “Range change”
Data for: Range reshuffling: climate change, invasive species, and the case of Nothofagus forests in Aotearoa New Zealand
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Aim: </strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The impact of climate change on forest biodiversity and ecosystem services will be partly determined by the relative fortunes of invasive and native forest trees under future conditions. Aotearoa New Zealand has high conservation value native forests and one of the world's worst invasive tree problems. We assess the relative effects of habitat redistribution on native <em>Nothofagus </em>and invasive conifer (Pinaceae) species in New Zealand as a case study on the compounding impacts of climate change and tree invasions.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Location: </strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Aotearoa New Zealand</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Methods: </strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal">We use species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the current and future distribution of habitat for five native <em>Nothofagus</em> species and 13 invasive conifer species under two 2070 climate scenarios. We calculate habitat loss/gain for all species and examine overlap between the invasive and native species now and in the future. </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Results: </strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Most species will lose habitat overall. The native species saw large changes in the distribution of habitat with extensive losses in North Island and gains mostly in South Island. Concerningly, we found that most new habitat for <em>Nothofagus </em>was also suitable for at least one invasive species. However, there were refugia for the native species in the wetter parts of the climate space.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Main conclusion:</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal">If the predicted changes in habitat distribution translate to shifts in forest distribution it would cause widespread ecological disruption. We discuss how acclimation, adaptation and biotic interactions may delay some changes. But we also highlight how the poor migration and establishment capacity of native <em>Nothofagus</em> and the competitive ability of invasive conifers will be a persistent conservation challenge in areas of both new habitat and forest retreat. Pinaceae are problematic invaders globally, and our results highlight that control of invasions and active native forest restoration will likely be key to managing forest biodiversity under future climates.</p>
Testing for adaptive changes linked to range expansion following a single introduction of the fall webworm
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Data for: Range reshuffling: climate change, invasive species, and the case of Nothofagus forests in Aotearoa New Zealand
Open the record for dataset details and reuse information.
Data from: A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of thermal performance in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower
<p>Evolutionary rescue can prevent populations from declining under climate change, and should be more likely at high-latitude, "leading" edges of species' ranges due to greater temperature anomalies and gene flow from warm-adapted populations. Using a resurrection study with seeds collected before and after a seven-year period of record warming, we tested for thermal adaptation in the scarlet monkeyflower <i>Mimulus</i> <i>cardinalis</i>. We grew ancestors and descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations across eight temperatures. Despite recent climate anomalies, populations showed limited evolution of thermal performance curves. However, one southern population evolved a narrower thermal performance breadth by 1.31 °C, which matches the direction and magnitude of the average decrease in seasonality experienced. Consistent with the climate variability hypothesis, thermal performance breadth increased with temperature seasonality across the species' geographic range. Inconsistent with performance trade-offs between low and high temperatures across populations, we did not detect a positive relationship between thermal optimum and mean temperature. These findings fail to support the hypothesis that evolutionary response to climate change is greatest at the leading edge, and suggest that the evolution of thermal performance is unlikely to rescue most populations from the detrimental effects of rapidly changing climate.</p>
Data from: Abundance, survival, and annual rate of change in Cuvier's beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) on a Navy sonar range
<p>Bayesian mark-recapture estimates of survival, abundance, and trend are reported for Cuvier's beaked whales (<em>Ziphius cavirostris</em>) using a Navy training range off southern California. The deep-diving beaked whale family is exceptionally vulnerable to mid-frequency active sonar (MFAS), which has been implicated in mass strandings and altered foraging behavior. Extremely low sighting probabilities impede studies of population-level impacts of MFAS on beaked whales. The San Nicolas Basin hosts a Navy training range subject to frequent MFAS use and attracts high densities of <em>Z. cavirostris</em>. An eleven-year (2007–2018) photo-identification program leveraged automated acoustic detection and location capabilities on the range's 1,800-km<sup>2</sup> hydrophone array to enhance capture probability. Estimated population parameters for <em>Z. cavirostris </em>using the range included mean (90% credibility intervals) apparent annual survival of 0.950 (0.899–0.986), the annual number of individuals as 121 (71–219), and the annual rate of change of -0.8% (-5.6 – 4.1%). Simulations show the probability of detecting abundance changes is currently low, but can be greatly improved through continued monitoring and increased effort. Complementary data collection on habitat use and demographic rates in San Nicolas and surrounding basins is also essential to relating the direct effects of MFAS use to changes in vital rates and broader population outcomes.</p>
Autopolyploidy-driven range expansion of a temperate-originated plant to pan-tropic under global change
<p>Angiosperms are believed to have emerged initially in the tropics and expanded their distribution range polewards through diverse mechanisms, for example polyploidization-driven cold-tolerance evolution. Reversed expansion from temperate to pantropic climate through a polyploidization-driven shift in heat-tolerance remains largely unknown. Here, we found autopolyploidy in relation to the global expansion of <i>Solidago canadensis</i> from its temperate-climate native range in North American to hot-summer climate in an introduced range. Our cytogeographical study of 2062 accessions from 471 locations worldwide demonstrates that ploidy levels correlates negatively with latitude and positively with average temperature. An isotherm-dependent shift of the climate niches at the threshold of 20-24ºC between geo-cytotypes can be attributed mainly to autopolyploidy-driven differentiation of heat tolerance; only polyploids and not diploids are able to complete sexual reproduction, germinate and grow in the hot-summer climate of low latitudes. Ploidy-dependent fertility appears to play a key role in the hot-summer introduced range in the northern hemisphere through both pre-adaptation and rapid post-introduction adaptive evolution of delayed flowering and improved heat-tolerance during embryo development. MaxEnt model predicts continuous expansion of this weed under global change. These results provide new insights into the mechanisms governing autopolyploidy-driven backward range-expansion of plant species from temperate origins.</p>
Long-term movements and home range changes: rapid territory shifts in meerkats
<p>1. Territoriality and stable home ranges are a common space use pattern among animals. These ranges provide its inhabitants with important resources and thus favourable territories are associated with an increased fitness. While the role of territory quality and changes of territory ownership have often been investigated, the changes of territorial boundaries have been less studied.</p> <p>2. Here we investigated space use changes in a social mammal species, applying a novel analytical approach, calculating long-term dissimilarity in space use using distance matrices based on periodic utilization distributions. This approach makes it possible to identify different space use patterns, which cannot be distinguished by only considering changes between consecutive time periods.</p> <p>3. We analysed meerkat (Suricata suricatta) movements of a total of 24 different groups over a 16-year period, resulting in 134 group years. We then correlated the identified home range changes to life history events and possible environmental drivers.</p> <p>4. Groups had stable territories for several years before they abandoned their home range mostly to move quickly to new areas where they again remained for several years. Of 26 identified sudden shifts, 22 occurred in the summer months and often involved distances larger than the original home range size. Home-range movements that were close together in time were often also spatially clustered and moved in a similar direction. These shifts were often preceded by more frequent interactions between groups, but did not seem to be a product of direct displacements by other groups. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as a measure of food production and social factors such as dominance changes did not correlate to changes.</p> <p>5. Against our expectation space use changes were not accumulations of small changes, but more often involved long distance moves into unknown ranges. This means that the groups enter areas where they cannot profit from local knowledge. The methods used identifies episodes of long stability alternated by sudden changes in meerkats and in general provides insight into long-term space use. Our methods can be used to analyse long-term space use, either within or across species.</p>
Data from: Does metabolism constrain bird and mammal ranges and predict shifts in response to climate change?
Mechanistic approaches for predicting the ranges of endotherms are needed to forecast their responses to environmental change. We test whether physiological constraints on maximum metabolic rate and the factor by which endotherms can elevate their metabolism (metabolic expansibility) influence cold range limits for mammal and bird species. We examine metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary (MECRB) and whether species' traits can predict variability in MECRB and then use MECRB as an initial approach to project range shifts for 210 mammal and 61 bird species. We find evidence for metabolic constraints: the distributions of metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary peak at similar values for birds (2.7) and mammals (3.2). The right skewed distributions suggest some species have adapted to elevate or evade metabolic constraints. Mammals exhibit greater skew than birds, consistent with their diverse thermoregulatory adaptations and behaviors. Mammal and bird species that are small and occupy low trophic levels exhibit high levels of MECRB. Mammals with high MECRB tend to hibernate or use torpor. Predicted metabolic rates at the cold range boundaries represent large energetic expenditures (>50% of maximum metabolic rates). We project species to shift their cold range boundaries poleward by an average of 3.9° latitude by 2070 if metabolic constraints remain constant. Our analysis suggests that metabolic constraints provide a viable mechanism for initial projections of the cold range boundaries for endotherms. However, errors and approximations in estimating metabolic constraints (e.g., acclimation responses) and evasion of these constraints (e.g., torpor/hibernation, microclimate selection) highlight the need for more detailed, taxa‐specific mechanistic models. Even coarse considerations of metabolism will likely lead to improved predictions over exclusively considering thermal tolerance for endotherms.
Vegetation changes with climate change in the Grandes Rousses mountain range
<p><strong><em>Questions:</em></strong> We assessed interactions between climate change, bedrock types and snow cover duration on the trajectories of taxonomic and functional composition of subalpine plant communities. We predict (i) an increase in species richness on siliceous bedrock due to a reduced competition and a decrease in richness on calcareous bedrock due to increasing drought stress, (ii) decreasing snow cover duration should induce a higher shrub encroachment in hollows as compared to ridges (iii) increasing growing season temperature should induce taller sizes and more conservative growth traits, in particular in hollows.</p> <p><strong><em>Location: </em></strong>Subalpine belt of the Grandes Rousses mountain range, south western Alps (France).</p> <p><strong><em>Methods:</em></strong> 189 vegetation plots were sampled in 1997 and 2017-2018. The duration of snow cover was assessed during two years in 1995-1997 and five functional traits were measured on 108 species in 2021. We performed multivariate analyses, quantified community weighted-means (CWM) of traits and used ANOVAs to detect responses to local-scale factors and changes in snow cover, temperature and precipitation since 1997 according to a nearby meteorological station.</p> <p><strong><em>Results:</em></strong> Overall, taxonomic composition weakly changed and changes were more dependent on the position of communities along the snow cover duration gradient than on their bedrock type. The abundance of drought-tolerant species increased at the border of hollows and there was, over all communities, a slight increase in the abundance of dwarf shrubs and tall herbaceous species, a strong decrease in short herbaceous species and, thus, an overall decrease in species richness. There were important overall changes in CWM of size traits, in particular leaf area which increased the most in hollows irrespective of bedrock types.</p> <p><strong><em>Conclusion:</em></strong> In this subalpine site the effects of decreasing snow cover duration overwhelmed the effects of bedrocks, which may explain the overall increase in competitive species and decrease in species richness.</p>
Evolution of thermal physiology alters the projected range of threespine stickleback under climate change
<p>Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict range shifts but could be unreliable under climate change scenarios because they do not account for evolution. The thermal physiology of a species is a key determinant of range and thus incorporating thermal trait evolution into SDMs might be expected to alter projected ranges. We identified a genetic basis for physiological and behavioural traits that evolve in response to temperature change in natural populations of threespine stickleback (<em>Gasterosteus aculeatus</em>). Using these data, we created geographic range projections using a mechanistic niche envelope approach under two climate change scenarios. Under both scenarios, trait data was either static ('no evolution' model), allowed to evolve at observed evolutionary rates for the trait ('evolution' model), or allowed to evolve at a rate of evolution scaled in association with the variance that is explained by quantitative trait loci (QTL; 'scaled evolution' models). We show that incorporating these traits and their evolution substantially altered the projected ranges for a widespread panmictic marine population, with over 7-fold increases in area under climate change projections when traits are allowed to evolve. Evolution-informed SDMs should improve the precision of forecasting range dynamics under climate change, and aid in their application to management and the protection of biodiversity.</p>
Data and code for: Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts
<p>Data and code for "Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts," accepted in <em>Ecological Monographs</em></p>
Riding an escalator: upward range shift and patterns of genetic response to climate change in Acer caudatifolium
<p><strong>Aim </strong></p> <p>Rapid global warming is threatening global biodiversity, and it will likely lead to varying degrees of local adaptation, particularly among plant species. Besides, rising temperatures frequently result in upslope distribution shifts towards climatic optima (i.e., the escalator effect) within a limited dispersal space, such as in insular environments. Here, we integrated ecological and genetic approaches to investigate how climate change will impact the genetic compositions and spatial distributions of Taiwan endemic maple <em>Acer caudatifolium</em>.</p> <p><strong>Location </strong></p> <p>Taiwan</p> <p><strong>Methods </strong></p> <p>We estimate the distribution range shifts of <em>A. caudatifolium</em> under climate change through species distribution modeling (SDM). We also use 368 genotyped samples to infer dispersal and genetic hotspots and quantify the contributions of geography/environments to genetic variations. We further assess the potential risk to <em>A. caudatifolium</em> under different climate warming scenarios.</p> <p><strong>Results </strong></p> <p>We detected three genetic diversity hotspots near mountainous glacial refugia and two dispersal hotspots in northern Taiwan and the central-to-southern Central Mountain Range. Overall range reductions and an altitudinal upslope-shift were observed in SDM. Using both linear and nonlinear regression approaches, we found that genetic variation was significantly associated with geographic distance and elevation-related climatic variables. The potential risk analysis revealed that the northernmost summit-dwelling populations were the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the major risk factor differed among populations: for central populations, temperature and precipitation jointly determined the potential risk, whereas precipitation was the only risk factor for northern and southern populations.</p> <p><strong>Main conclusions</strong></p> <p>This case study demonstrates how various climate factors, mountain height, and the availability of corridors jointly determine the demographic fates and sustainability of island maples in the face of climate change. This study also provided estimates of the implications of global warming, which can be conducive to developing appropriate conservation strategies.</p>
Data from: Paleoclimatic changes resulted in range expansion and subsequent divergence in brown fur seals, Arctocephalus pusillus
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Past climatic change as a driving force of marine diversification is still largely unclear, particularly for Southern Hemisphere species. Here, we present a case study using the brown fur seal, <em>Arctocephalus pusillus,</em> and assess the geographical structure and demographic history using mitochondrial and nuclear data. Results show the two previously defined subspecies (one from Australia and the other from Southern Africa) are phylogeographically distinct. Migration analyses based on nuclear data suggest the absence of migrants among the two genetically close assemblages. The demographic history of <em>A. pusillus</em> is characterized by a glacial population expansion (~18 Kya) in the Southern African taxon, which coincides with time estimates of population expansion of prey species of seals. Approximate Bayesian Calculations support an eastward dispersal event during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when sea levels were lower, followed by a postglacial divergence event, ~ 13 Kya. The demographic history of the brown fur seal in the Southern Oceans provides support that recent paleoclimatic changes could have facilitated expansions in some marine species and that postglacial sea-level rise may have acted as a dispersal barrier for species mostly confined to continental shelves. </span></p>
Dispersal and coastal geomorphology limit potential for mangrove range expansion under climate change
<p>Latitudinal range limits for mangroves on high-energy, wave-dominated coasts are controlled by geomorphological features and estuarine dynamics. Mangroves reach a southern global range limit along the South African coastline, but the distribution is patchy, with stands occurring in only 16% of the estuaries in the region. Yet, the persistence of forests planted >50 years ago beyond the natural distribution limit suggests that additional estuaries could support mangroves. Understanding regional drivers is necessary to inform global scale estimates for how this important ecosystem is predicted to respond to climate change.</p> <p>Here, we combine species distribution modeling (MaxEnt), Lagrangian particle tracking using an eddy- and tide-resolving numerical ocean model, and connectivity matrices, to identify suitable mangrove habitats at present, as well as under the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios.</p> <p>Within the current South African distribution range (± 900 km), eight more estuaries were identified as suitable under contemporary conditions. When considering potential range extension (± 110 km), an additional 14 suitable estuaries were identified. Connectivity matrices suggest limited long-distance dispersal, stranding mostly at or near the release location, and a decreased probability of connectivity towards the range limit. Under both future climate scenarios, 30% of estuaries currently supporting mangroves are predicted to become unsuitable, while an additional six estuaries beyond the current distribution are predicted to become suitable. However, there is limited connectivity between these new sites and established forests.</p> <p><em>Synthesis</em>: This study shows that dispersal substantially limits mangrove distribution at the southern African range limit and highlights the importance of including this process in species distribution models. Ultimately, our results provide new insight for mangrove conservation and management at range limits that are not controlled predominantly by temperature, as it has been assumed that mangroves will largely expand to higher latitudes under climate change.</p>
Data for isolation-by-environment and its consequences for range shifts with global change: Landscape genomics of the invasive common tansy
<p>Invasive species are a growing global economic and ecological problem. However, it is not well understood how environmental factors mediate invasive range expansion. In this study, we investigated the recent and rapid range expansion of common tansy across environmental gradients in Minnesota, U.S.A. We densely sampled individuals across the expanding range and performed reduced representation sequencing to generate a dataset of 3071 polymorphic loci for 176 individuals. The dataset includes additional samples from the native range in Finland that were not used in the downstream analysis but are contributed for completeness. The dataset includes the genotype calls for all individuals sampled and sequenced. The genotype file was generated by stacks2.59 running the denovo pipeline and then using the populations function where we kept loci that were in 70% of populations and had a minor allele frequency of at least 1%. We used non-spatial and spatially-explicit analyses to determine the relative influences of geographic distance and environmental variation on patterns of genomic variation. We found no evidence for isolation-by-distance (IBD) but strong evidence for isolation-by-environment (IBE), indicating that environmental factors may have modulated patterns of range expansion.</p>
Data from: Local climate change velocities and evolutionary history explain multidirectional range shifts in a North American butterfly assemblage
<p>Species are often expected to shift their distributions either poleward or upslope to evade warming climates and colonize new suitable climatic niches. However, from 18 years of fixed transect monitoring data on 88 species of butterfly in the midwestern United States, we show that butterflies are shifting their centroids in all directions, except towards the region that is warming the fastest (southeast). Butterflies shifted their centroids at a mean rate of 4.87 km yr-1. The rate of centroid shift was significantly associated with local climate change velocity (temperature by precipitation interaction), but not with mean climate change velocity throughout the species' ranges. Species tended to shift their centroids at a faster rate towards regions that are warming at slower velocities but increasing in precipitation velocity. Surprisingly, species' thermal niche breadth (range of climates butterflies experience throughout their distribution) and wingspan (often used as a metric for dispersal capability) were not correlated with the rate at which species shifted their ranges. We observed a high phylogenetic signal in the direction species shifted their centroids. However, we found no phylogenetic signal in the rate species shifted their centroids, suggesting less conserved processes determine the rate of range shift than the direction species shift their ranges. This research shows important signatures of multidirectional range shifts (latitudinal and longitudinal) and uniquely shows that local climate change velocities are more important in driving range shifts than the mean climate change velocity throughout a species' entire range.</p>
Fig. 12 in Changes in the range of Pterostichus melas and P. fornicatus (Coleoptera, Carabidae) on the basis of climatic modeling
Fig. 12. Map of comparison of P. melas current range and ranges for 2050 and 2070
Fig. 11 in Changes in the range of Pterostichus melas and P. fornicatus (Coleoptera, Carabidae) on the basis of climatic modeling
Fig. 11. Comparison of P.melas current range and range for 2050
Uncovering the little known impact of a millennia-old traditional use of temperate oak forests: free-ranging domestic pigs markedly change the herb layer, but barely affect the shrub layer
<p>This excel file contains data on ground, herb and shrub layer characteristics of hardwood floodplain forests under different disturbance intensity by free-ranging domestic pigs, a millennia-old practice in Eurasia. We used these dataset to create figures 3, 4, 5, 6 (a) (b), 7, 8 presented in the paper „Uncovering the little known impact of a millennia-old traditional use of temperate oak forests: free-ranging pigs markedly change the herb layer, but barely affect the shrub layer”. Vegetation surveys were conducted in the spring and late summer periods of 2017 and 2018. The bare soil surface and litter cover were visually estimated within each 0.25 ha sampling plot. The cover and composition of the herb layer were recorded using 30 subsamples (1 m2) at each SP (altogether 1680 subsamples). 28 subsamples were located along the four cardinal directions at 2 m distances running from the centre of sampling plots and 2 other subsamples were randomly positioned. The total cover of the upper (higher than 130 cm) and lower (50-130 cm) shrub layer, and the cover of each species by layers, were visually estimated in each 0.25 ha SP. The browsing, rooting and rubbing impacts of pigs were measured along a 56-m-long transect running through the centre of the SPs from north to south. We sampled altogether from 3138 to 3282 woody specimens depending on variables used to describe pigs impacts on specimens.</p>
Fig. 4 in The effects of short-term climate change on the range of species: the case of the expanding European dwarf mantis Ameles spallanzania in northern Italy (Mantodea: Amelidae)
Fig. 4 – Suitability maps of Ameles spallanzania referred to each decade.
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Allen Brain Atlas
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