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223 results for “future changes”
Global diversity patterns of larger benthic foraminifera under future climate change
<p><span>Global warming threatens the viability of tropical coral reefs and associated marine calcifiers, including symbiont-bearing larger benthic foraminifera (LBF). The impacts of current climate change on LBF are debated because they were particularly diverse and abundant during past warm periods. Studies on the responses of selected LBF species to changing environmental conditions reveal varying results. </span><span>Based on a comprehensive review of the scientific literature on LBF species occurrences, we applied species distribution modeling using Maxent to estimate present-day and future species richness patterns on a global scale for the time periods 2040–2050 and 2090–2100. </span><span> </span><span>For our future projections, we focus on Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which projects mean surface temperature changes of +2.2°C by the year 2100. This data set comprises all raw data and results. </span>Our results suggest that species richness in the Central Indo-Pacific is two to three times higher than in the Bahamian ecoregion, which we have identified as the present-day center of LBF diversity in the Atlantic. Our future predictions project a dramatic temperature-driven decline in low-latitude species richness and an increasing widening bimodal latitudinal pattern of species diversity. While the central Indo-Pacific, now the stronghold of LBF diversity, is expected to be most pushed outside of the currently realized niches of most species, refugia may be largely preserved in the Atlantic. LBF species will face large-scale non-analogous climatic conditions compared to currently realized climate space in the near future, as reflected in the extensive areas of extrapolation, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Our study supports hypotheses that species richness and biogeographical patterns of LBF will fundamentally change under future climate conditions, possibly initiating a faunal turnover by the late 21st century.</p>
Vulnerability of estuarine systems in the contiguous United States to water quality change under future climate and land-use
<p>Changes in climate and land-use and land-cover (LULC) are expected to influence surface water runoff and nutrient characteristics of estuarine watersheds, but the extent to which estuaries are vulnerable to altered nutrient loading under future conditions is poorly understood. The present work aims to address this gap through the development of a new vulnerability assessment framework that accounts for (1) estuarine exposure to projected changes in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads as a function of LULC and climate change under several scenarios to altered nutrient loads, (2) sensitivity (i.e., how responsive estuaries are to altered nutrient loads), and (3) adaptive capacity (i.e., how the socio-ecological system can use existing resources to reduce the impacts associated with increased exposure). The framework was applied to 112 estuaries and their contributing watersheds across the contiguous U.S., specifically to look at regional variability in estuarine vulnerability to nutrient loading. Study findings revealed that the largest increases in estuarine nutrient loads are expected in the North and South Atlantic regions and eastern Gulf of Mexico, while the lowest increase is expected in the North and South Pacific regions and the western Gulf of Mexico. However, the North Atlantic and the South Pacific had the highest adaptive capacity, which could potentially counteract the effects of LULC and climate change on nutrient loads. Our findings illustrate the benefits of integrating natural and socio-ecological factors to identify opportunities to develop adaptation plans and policies to mitigate ecological degradation in vitally important estuaries. A<a href="https://lisemontefiore.shinyapps.io/estuarine_vulnerability/"> web-based application</a> has been developed to visualize and download the data.</p>
Data from: Potential effects of future climate change on global reptile distributions and diversity
<p class="first-paragraph"><span><strong>Aim:</strong></span><span> Until recently, complete information on global reptile distributions has not been widely available. Here, we provide the first comprehensive climate impact assessment for reptiles on a global scale.</span></p> <p class="western"><span><strong>Location:</strong></span><span> Global, excluding Antarctica</span></p> <p class="western"><span><strong>Time period:</strong></span><span> 1995, 2050, 2080</span></p> <p class="western"><span><strong>Major taxa studied:</strong></span><span> Reptiles</span></p> <p class="western"><span><strong>Methods:</strong></span><span> We modelled the distribution of 6,296 reptile species and assessed potential global as well as realm-specific changes in species richness, the change in global species richness across climate space, and species-specific changes in range extent, overlap and position under future climate change. To assess the future climatic impact on 3,768 range-restricted species, which could not be modelled, we compared the future change in climatic conditions between both modelled and non-modelled species.</span></p> <p class="western"><span><strong>Results:</strong></span><span> Reptile richness was projected to decline significantly over time, globally but also for most zoogeographic realms, with the greatest decrease in Brazil, Australia and South Africa. Species richness was highest in warm and moist regions, with these regions being projected to shift further towards climate extremes in the future. Range extents were projected to decline considerably in the future, with a low overlap between current and future ranges. Shifts in range centroids differed among realms and taxa, with a dominating global poleward shift. Non-modelled species were significantly stronger affected by projected climatic changes than modelled species.</span></p> <p class="western"><span><strong>Main conclusions:</strong></span><span> With ongoing future climate change, reptile richness is likely to decrease significantly across most parts of the world. This effect as well as considerable impacts on species' range extent, overlap, and position were visible across lizards, snakes and turtles alike. Together with other anthropogenic impacts, such as habitat loss and harvesting of species, this is a cause for concern. Given the historical lack of global reptile distributions, this calls for a re-assessment of global reptile conservation efforts, with a specific focus on anticipated future climate change.</span></p>
Data from: The impacts of climate change, energy policy, and traditional ecological practices on future firewood availability for Diné (Navajo) People
<p>These data are part of a data portal that accompanies the special issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture,' published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B in 2023. To access the data portal, please visit <a href="https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.bnzs7h4h4"><strong>https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.bnzs7h4h4</strong></a>.</p> <p>The files consist of the code of an agent-based model (ABM) in a NetLogo, detailed documentation of the ABM in a standard format, and a table of data exported from the simulation experiment reported on in the paper. By downloading the Netlogo file, one could not only rerun the experiment we report on and recreate the data table but toggle parameters or edit the model to explore other dynamics.</p>
FUTURES land change forecasts in response to flooding in Charleston area, South Carolina (2019-2050)
<p>Climate-aware scenarios of FUTURES land change projections in Charleston area (Cherleston, Dorchester, Berkeley) for 2019-2050.</p> <p>Zipped folder <code>results</code> contains FUTURES v3 simulation runs for 3 counties in South Carolina, USA (Charleston, Berkeley, Dorchester) from 2019 to 2050. Included are five <em>climate-aware</em> scenarios (reactive, managed retreat, resist, polarized population, trapped population) and one scenario which does not take future climate conditions into account (<em>dynamic development</em>). Each folder contains 50 monte-carlo simulation results with <code>developed_seed_X.tif</code> and <code>adapted_seed_X.tif</code> where <code>X</code> goes from 1 to 50. Values of <code>developed_seed_X.tif</code> range from -31 to 31, where the positive values represent simulation step when an undeveloped pixel was developed and the negative values represent simulation step when a developed pixel was abandoned. Zero stands for initial development. For example, value -11 means the particular pixel was abandoned in 2030. Note that values of raster files in <code>Dynamic development</code> folder range from -1 to 31, where -1 means undeveloped and the rest is the same as above. Values of <code>adapted_seed_X.tif</code> range from 0 to 100, where 0 means trapped (flooded but no adaptation), the other values represent return period for which the pixel is adapted (e.g. 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year flood). The files' CRS is Albers Conic Equal Area, NAD83(2011) datum.</p> <p>Additionally, we include <code>migration_matrix.csv</code> derived from IRS data, that contains probability values of moving from an origin county in the case study (row) to any other counties (columns).</p>
Vulnerability of estuarine systems in the contiguous United States to water quality change under future climate and land-use
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Historical and future climate change fosters expansion of Australian harvester termites, Drepanotermes
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Conservation of woody species in China under future climate and land-cover changes
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Global diversity patterns of larger benthic foraminifera under future climate change
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Data from: Potential effects of future climate change on global reptile distributions and diversity
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Data from: Integrating genomic data and simulations to evaluate alternative species distribution models and improve predictions of glacial refugia and future responses to climate change
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Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming
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Climate change alters the future of natural floristic regions of deep evolutionary origins
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Data from: The impacts of climate change, energy policy, and traditional ecological practices on future firewood availability for Diné (Navajo) People
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Model output for: Attributing causes of future climate change in the California Current System with multi-model downscaling
<p>Regional Ocean Modeling System outputs from dynamic downscaling of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate forcings in the California Current system, including projections with full climate forcings, as well as attribution experiments with only changes in wind, heat fluxes and other properties changing stratification, and boundary biogeochemical forcings. Output variables include euphotic zone integrated net primary productivity, and incident photosytnehtically available radiation, and ocean temperature, salinity, vertical velocity, and dissolved oxygen and nitrate concentrations at select depths.</p>
Phenological responses to climate warming in temperate moths and butterflies: species traits predict future changes in voltinism
Changes in the number of generations per year (voltinism) have been among the most common phenological responses to climate warming in insects inhabiting seasonal environments. Nevertheless, numerous species have maintained univoltine (one generation per year) phenology with increasing temperatures, indicating the involvement of phylogenetic, ecological or some other constraints on phenological change. I examined geographic variation in voltinism in moths and butterflies of Northern Europe to identify species traits that might predispose species to univoltine/multivoltine phenology. I focused on species with a wide latitudinal distribution range (15 degrees as a minimum) which makes it unlikely that constraints imposed by season length could preclude multivoltinism across their distribution. Almost half of the 731 moth and butterfly species considered appear to have a single generation throughout their entire European range. A univoltine life-cycle across a wide latitudinal gradient suggests the presence of some constraint that makes additional generations either impossible or at least strongly disadvantageous, which will unlikely change with future climate warming. The scattered distribution of univoltine and multivoltine species across the lepidopteran phylogeny indicates that phylogenetic constraints are not strongly limiting changes in voltinism, and the trait is open to ecologically-driven adaptive evolution. My data show that species with one generation per year are generally larger than multivoltine species, but size forms no absolute constraint to having multiple generations per year. Obligately univoltine species dominate among egg and adult overwinterers (life-histories typical of so-called spring-feeders), whereas species with capacity for multiple generations prevail among pupal overwinterers. Multivoltinism is also infrequent among species feeding on grasses, particularly in endophagous grass-feeders. Larval diet breadth has no discernible effect on voltinism. Given the diverse ecological consequences of voltinism and its changes, accounting for the species' capacity for multivoltinism may be a key to address future challenges in biodiversity conservation and pest management.
Dataset for Bukovsky et al. (2021): "SSP-Based Land Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections"
<p>This dataset contains derived data and model data necessary for reproducing the results found in "SSP-Based Land Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections" by Melissa S. Bukovsky, Jing Gao, Linda O. Mearns, and Brian C. O'Neill. This dataset contains data not otherwise available in other public archives, as noted in Bukovsky et al. (2021, Earth's Future; preprint available at https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10504141.2). That is, this dataset contains data from the land-use change simulations that are not part of NA-CORDEX (na-cordex.org), but which are complementary to those published in the NA-CORDEX archive.</p>
Variable influence of photosynthetic thermal acclimation on future carbon uptake in Australian wooded ecosystems under climate change
<p><span>Climate change will impact gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), and carbon storage in wooded ecosystems. The extent of change will be influenced by thermal acclimation of photosynthesis – the ability of plants to adjust net photosynthetic rates in response to growth temperatures – yet regional differences in acclimation effects among wooded ecosystems are currently unknown. We examined the effects of changing climate on 17 Australian wooded ecosystems with and without the effects of thermal acclimation of C<sub>3</sub> photosynthesis. Ecosystems were drawn from five ecoregions (tropical savanna, tropical forest, Mediterranean woodlands, temperate woodlands, and temperate forests) that span Australia's climatic range. We used the CABLE-POP land surface model adapted with thermal acclimation functions and forced with HadGEM2-ES climate projections from RCP8.5. For each site and ecoregion, we examined a) effects of climate change on GPP, NPP, and live tree carbon storage; and b) impacts of thermal acclimation of photosynthesis on simulated changes. Between the end of the historical (1976–2005) and projected (2070–2099) periods, simulated annual carbon uptake increased in the majority of ecosystems by 26.1 to 63.3% for GPP and 15 to 61.5% for NPP. Thermal acclimation of photosynthesis further increased GPP and NPP in tropical savannas by 27.2% and 22.4% and by 11% and 10.1% in tropical forests with positive effects concentrated in the wet season (tropical savannas) and the warmer months (tropical forests). We predicted minimal effects of thermal acclimation of photosynthesis on GPP, NPP and carbon storage in Mediterranean woodlands, temperate woodlands and temperate forests. Overall, positive effects were strongly enhanced by increasing CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations under RCP8.5. We conclude that the direct effects of climate change will enhance carbon uptake and storage in Australian wooded ecosystems (likely due to CO<sub>2</sub> enrichment) and that benefits of thermal acclimation of photosynthesis will be restricted to tropical ecoregions.</span></p>
Present status, future trends, and control strategies of invasive alien plants in China affected by human activities and climate change
<p>Invasive alien plants (IAPs) have serious environmental and economic impacts, especially in vulnerable areas of China. However, IAP richness distribution patterns, their driving factors, and the dynamic shifts in potential distribution areas remain elusive. We assessed IAP richness distribution patterns and drivers using 402 IAPs recorded in China at 88,926 occurrence points, and then predicted their potential distribution areas. The results show that IAP hotspots were mainly located in southeastern China, especially coastal areas of the South and East and large inland cities. Population density, gross domestic product (GDP), and four climate variables associated with precipitation and temperature jointly influenced the richness distribution pattern of all IAPs. Specifically, population density and GDP impacted the richness distribution pattern of narrow-range IAPs, and population density, GDP, distance to the nearest national highway, and five climate variables affected the richness distribution pattern of widespread IAPs. Only GDP contributed significantly to the richness distribution pattern of the top 5% hotspot grid cells, whereas population density, GDP, and precipitation in the driest month (BIO14) significantly influenced the richness distribution patterns of hotspots for both the top 10% and top 20%. Prediction analysis demonstrated that southeastern China would have a particularly high invasion risk under both current and future climate scenarios. Regions with increases in predicted species richness are more common (44.83%–64.97%) than those with decreases, except under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Climate change will contribute greatly to the expansion of potential IAP distribution areas under both optimistic (RCP 2.5) and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 8.5). The results of this study provide insights into the priority management of IAPs through developing promising strategies for the control and prevention of IAP invasion.</p>
Data from: Drivers of contemporary and future changes in Arctic seasonal transition dates for a tundra site in coastal Greenland
<p>Climate change has had a significant impact on the seasonal transition dates of Arctic tundra ecosystems, causing diverse variations between distinct land surface classes. However, the combined effect of multiple controls as well as their individual effects on these dates remains unclear at various scales and across diverse land surface classes. Here we quantified spatiotemporal variations of three seasonal transition dates (start of spring, maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI<sub>max</sub>) day, end of fall) for five dominant land surface classes in the ice-free Greenland and analyzed their drivers for current and future climate scenarios, respectively.</p>
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Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
ABODe is a University of Edinburgh DataShare dataset for behavior classification in group-housed mice using home-cage video, identities, bounding boxes, ground-plate positions, and annotator labels.
DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.