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51 results for “integrated population model”

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dryad28/100

Data from: An integrated assessment model of seabird population dynamics: can individual heterogeneity in susceptibility to fishing explain abundance trends in Crozet wandering albatross?

1. Seabirds have been incidentally caught in distant-water longline fleets operating in the Southern Ocean since at least the 1970s, and breeding numbers for some populations have shown marked trends of decline and recovery concomitant with longline fishing effort within their distributions. However, lacking is an understanding of how forms of among-individual heterogeneity may interact with fisheries bycatch and influence population dynamics. 2. We develop a model that uses comprehensive data on the spatial and temporal distributions of fishing effort and seabird foraging to estimate temporal overlaps, fishery catchability and consequent bycatch. We apply a population model that is structured by age, sex, life stage and spatially to Crozet Island wandering albatross and explore how heterogeneity in susceptibility to capture may have influenced the population's demography over time. 3. A model where some birds were assumed to be more susceptible to fisheries bycatch was able to successfully replicate the observed trend in breeding pairs. Considerably poorer fits were found without this assumption. Results suggested that the more susceptible birds may have been removed from the population by the 1990s. 4. The model was also able to highlight areas, times and fleets prone to increased bycatch. Knowledge of these factors should assist fisheries and conservation management bodies to quantify and reduce seabird bycatch through spatial management and fleet-specific mitigation efforts. 5. Synthesis and application. Many seabirds show complex life histories that make them highly susceptible to additional incidental mortality from fishing vessels. By applying a population model that integrates key aspects of seabird and fishery dynamics, we were able to explain the observed trends in the breeding population of Crozet wandering albatross and identify key areas and fleets where further mitigation may be required. In addition, the potential removal of a category of birds that shows increased susceptibility to capture has important implications for the conservation management of this population and other iconic species incidentally caught by large-scale commercial fisheries.

opencc-zeroDec 2014View details →

dryad28/100

An integrated population model to project viability of a northern bobwhite population in Ohio [DATA]

<p>Increased variation in interannual weather due to climate change can exert a powerful influence on the population dynamics of a species. Understanding the influence of severe weather is important for managing weather-sensitive species. While best management practices target vital rates that are affected by weather, focusing on a single vital rate may not be sufficient if other vital rates are secondarily limiting. A comprehensive modeling framework to forecast future population dynamics while incorporating weather scenarios and vital rate variation within observed ranges that can be affected by management actions are necessary. A potential approach is to combine an integrated population model (IPM) with a population viability analysis (PVA) to generate novel insights about population dynamics. We used the northern bobwhite (<i>Colinus virginianus</i>), a rapidly declining gamebird sensitive to snowfall along the northern extents of the species' range, to demonstrate the utility of a coupled IPM-PVA framework for projecting the response of a population to weather, management, and changes in vital rates. We created an IPM using two sources of count data spanning seven years, five years of winter survival data, and two years of breeding season demographics for a declining bobwhite population in southwestern Ohio during 2007–2015. Quasi-extinction probability at the end of the decadal projection during 2019–2029 was 0.384–0.410 for mild, average, and severe winter weather scenarios. Quasi-extinction probability declined to 0.326 with 20% improvement in nest success and summer survival rates. A concurrent 20% increase in winter survival further reduced quasi-extinction probability to 0.263, which is a ~36% reduction in quasi-extinction probability compared to the baseline scenario with no changes in vital rates. These results suggest that long-term viability of this population may depend on extensive management of winter habitat to improve survival but will also require management actions to improve fecundity after severe winters. Our modeling approach demonstrated how IPMs can be used to project population responses to future weather conditions and overcome some of the pitfalls of traditional PVA. The coupled framework presented here can serve as a tool for managers to make climate informed management decisions.</p>

opencc-zeroAug 2021View details →

dryad28/100