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87 results for “reproductive output”
Supplementary material 4 from: Augustinus BA, Lommen STE, Fogliatto S, Vidotto F, Smith T, Horvath D, Bonini M, Gentili RF, Citterio S, Müller-Schärer H, Schaffner U (2020) In-season leaf damage by a biocontrol agent explains reproductive output of an invasive plant species. NeoBiota 55: 117-146. https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.55.46874
Figure S1. Mean plant volume ± se of A. artemisiifolia plants measured during the experiment in the four experimental sites
Data from: Feather corticosterone reveals effect of moulting conditions in the autumn on subsequent reproductive output and survival in an Arctic migratory bird
For birds, unpredictable environments during the energetically stressful times of moulting and breeding are expected to have negative fitness effects. Detecting those effects however, might be difficult if individuals modulate their physiology and/or behaviours in ways to minimize short-term fitness costs. Corticosterone in feathers (CORTf) is thought to provide information on total baseline and stress-induced CORT levels at moulting and is an integrated measure of hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal activity during the time feathers are grown. We predicted that CORTf levels in northern common eider females would relate to subsequent body condition, reproductive success and survival, in a population of eiders nesting in the eastern Canadian Arctic during a capricious period marked by annual avian cholera outbreaks. We collected CORTf data from feathers grown during previous moult in autumn and data on phenology of subsequent reproduction and survival for 242 eider females over 5 years. Using path analyses, we detected a direct relationship between CORTf and arrival date and body condition the following year. CORTf also had negative indirect relationships with both eider reproductive success and survival of eiders during an avian cholera outbreak. This indirect effect was dramatic with a reduction of approximately 30% in subsequent survival of eiders during an avian cholera outbreak when mean CORTf increased by 1 standard deviation. This study highlights the importance of events or processes occurring during moult on subsequent expression of life-history traits and relation to individual fitness, and shows that information from non-destructive sampling of individuals can track carry-over effects across seasons.
Data from: Fitness in invasive social wasps: the role of variation in viral load, immune response and paternity in predicting nest size and reproductive output
Within any one habitat, the relative fitness of organisms in a population can vary substantially. Social insects like the common wasp are among the most successful invasive animals, but show enormous variation in nest size and other fitness-related traits. Some of this variation may be caused by pathogens such as viruses that can have serious consequences in social insects, which range from reduced productivity to colony death. Both individual immune responses and colony-level traits such as genetic diversity are likely to influence effects of pathogen infections on colony fitness. Here we investigate how infections with Kashmir Bee Virus (KBV), immune response and intracolony genetic diversity (due to queen polyandry) affect nest size in the invasive common wasp, Vespula vulgaris. We show that KBV is highly prevalent in wasps and expression of antiviral immune genes is significantly increased with higher viral loads across individuals. Patriline membership within a nest did not influence KBV susceptibility or immune response. A permutational MANCOVA revealed that polyandry, viral load, and expression of the immune gene Dicer were significant predictors of variation in nest size. High intracolony genetic diversity due to polyandry has previously been hypothesized to improve colony-level resistance to parasites and pathogens. Consistent with this hypothesis, we observed genetically diverse colonies to be significantly larger and to produce more queens, although this effect was not driven by the pathogen we investigated. Invasive wasps clearly suffer from pathogens and expend resources, as indicated here by elevated immune gene expression, toward reducing pathogen-impact on colony fitness.
Data from: Pair complementarity influences reproductive output in the polymorphic black sparrowhawk (Accipiter melanoleucus)
How multiple morphs are maintained within populations of colour polymorphic bird species remains a challenging question in evolutionary ecology. In some systems, differential productivity or survival between morphs are thought to play a role. Here we examine key demographic parameters between the two discrete adult morphs that characterise the polymorphic black sparrowhawk Accipiter melanoleucus. Using long-term breeding and survival data from a population on the Cape Peninsula, South Africa, we test for differences in reproductive performance between light and dark morphs, both in isolation and in combination with their partner morph and adult survival between morphs. We found that neither morph had a specific advantage in terms of productivity or survival. Despite this lack of difference between the individual morphs, we did however find that morph combination of adult pairs influenced productivity significantly, with mixed-pairs producing more offspring per year than pairs consisting of the same morph. The body condition of the offspring showed the opposite relationship, with nestlings of mixed-pairs having lower body condition than nestlings of like-pairs. While our results suggest an advantage of mating with the opposite morph, there was no evidence for disassortative mating; instead breeding pair morph combinations were random with respect to the background frequencies of the two morphs. Higher productivity of mixed-pairs may be the result of the complementary nature of care provided by the different morphs. We propose that differential foraging success between black sparrowhawk morphs under varying light conditions allows mixed-pairs to expand their foraging niche. We conclude that emergent pair-level properties may play an important role in promoting and maintaining polymorphism and may be important for other bird species which display bi-parental care.
Data from: Plasma mammalian leptin analogue predicts reproductive phenology, but not reproductive output in a capital-income breeding seaduck
To invest in energetically demanding life history stages, individuals require a substantial amount of resources. Physiological traits, particularly those related to energetics, can be useful for examining variation in life history decisions and trade-offs because they result from individual responses to environmental variation. Leptin is a protein hormone found in mammals that is proportional to the amount of endogenous fat stores within an individual. Recently, researchers have confirmed that a mammalian leptin analogue (MLA), based on the mammalian sequence of leptin, is present with associated receptors and proteins in avian species, with an inhibitory effect on foraging and body mass gain at high circulating levels. While MLA has been both quantified and manipulated in avian species, little is currently known regarding whether plasma MLA in wild-living species and individuals is associated with key reproductive decisions. We quantified plasma MLA in wild, Arctic-nesting female common eiders (Somateria mollissima) at arrival on the breeding grounds and followed them to determine subsequent breeding propensity, and reproductive phenology, investment, and success. Common eiders are capital-income breeding birds that require the accumulation of substantial fat stores to initiate laying and successfully complete incubation. We found that females with lower plasma MLA initiated breeding earlier and in a shorter period of time. However, we found no links between plasma MLA levels and breeding propensity, clutch size or reproductive success. Although little is still known about plasma MLA, based on the current study and due to its role in influencing foraging behaviours and condition gain, it appears to be closely linked to reproductive timing and is therefore likely to underlie trade-offs surrounding life history decisions.
Data from: Nest boxes increase reproductive output for Tree Swallows in a forest grassland matrix in central British Columbia
Secondary cavity-nesting birds depend on tree cavities for nesting and roosting, but many studies of these birds are conducted using nest boxes. Implementation of effective conservation strategies for cavity-nesting species such as nest-site supplementation requires careful comparisons of fecundity and other vital rates for birds using both natural and artificial nest site types. We compared breeding phenology, clutch and brood sizes, and fledging success of Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) nesting in tree cavities and nest boxes during 2001–2003 in British Columbia, Canada. Swallows using nest boxes initiated egg-laying and hatched young at approximately the same time as those in tree cavities (2 June, 23 June, respectively). Female Tree Swallows in boxes laid larger clutches (5.9 ± 0.9 eggs, N = 76) than those in tree cavities (4.2 ± 1.6 eggs, N = 67). The mean number of nestlings hatched was greater in nest boxes (5.2 ± 1.1 nestlings, N = 67) than in tree cavities (2.6 ± 2.0 nestlings, N = 58). Pairs in boxes were over twice as successful in producing fledglings (93.4%; 57 of 61 pairs fledged > 1 young) than those in tree cavities (35.8%; 19 of 53 pairs). Of those successful nests, pairs nesting in boxes fledged 5.1 ± 1.1 young (N = 57), whereas those in tree cavities fledged 3.5 ± 1.2 young (N = 18). Because cavities in nest boxes averaged 60% larger in volume and 1.8 cm wider internally than tree cavities, we suggest that increased reproductive output was correlated with boxes enabling a larger clutch size. In previous research, we found that Tree Swallows were a poor competitor with other cavity-nesting passerines for tree cavities. The addition of nest boxes may serve as an effective way to supplement local reproduction for secondary cavity-nesting bird populations by reducing competition for limited nest sites. This is especially true in regions where the availability of natural nesting sites is highly variable, and where species compete with many other cavity-nesting passerines using a similar ecological niche and nesting cavities.
Data from: Caste ratios affect the reproductive output of social trematode colonies
Intraspecific phenotypic diversification in social organisms often leads to formation of physical castes which are morphologically specialised for particular tasks within the colony. The optimal caste allocation theory argues that specialised morphological castes are efficient at specific tasks, and hence different caste ratios should affect the ergonomic efficiency, hence reproductive output of the colony. However, the reproductive output of different caste ratios has been documented only in few species of insects with equivocal support for the theory. The present study investigated whether the ratios of non-reproductive and reproductive morphs affect the reproductive output of a recently discovered social trematode, Philophthalmus sp., in which the non-reproductive members are hypothesized to be defensive specialists. Census of natural infections and a manipulative in-vitro experiment demonstrated a positive association between the reproductive output of trematode colonies and the ratio of non-reproductive to reproductive morphs in the presence of an intra-host trematode competitor, Maritrema novaezealandensis. On the contrary, without the competitor, reproductive output was negatively associated with the proportion of non-reproductive castes in colonies. Our findings demonstrate for the first time a clear fitness benefit associated with the non-reproductive castes in the presence of a competitor while illustrating the cost of maintaining such morphs in non-competitive situations. Although the proximate mechanisms controlling caste ratio remain unclear in this trematode system, the present study supports the prediction that the fitness of colonies is influenced by the composition of specialized functional morphs in social organisms, suggesting a potential for adaptive shifts of caste ratios over evolutionary time.
Figure 2 in Sex change and reproductive output of the protandric shrimp Merguia rhizophorae (Rathbun, 1900) (Decapoda, Merguiidae)
Figure 2. Anatomical and morphological characteristics of the male phase (a–c) and female phase (d– f) individuals of Merguia rhizophorae (Rathbun 1900). (a) Close-up of the endopod of the first pleopod (arrow points to the cincinnuli); (b) Endopod of the second pleopod (upper and lower arrows point to the appendix interna and the appendix masculina, respectively); (c) Gonopore on the coxae of the fifth pereiopod (arrow points to the gonopore); (d) Close-up of the endopod of the first pleopod (arrow points to the area where cincinnuli would be located in a male phase); (e) Endopod of the second pleopod, lacking an appendix masculina (arrow points to the appendix interna); (f) Coxae of the fifth pereiopod, lacking a gonopore (arrow points to the area where gonopore would be located in a male phase). Scale bar: A–D, 0.2 mm; B–E, 1.0 mm; C–F, 0.5 mm. Legend: CI, cincinnuli; AI, appendix interna; AM, appendix masculina; GO, gonopore; P, pereiopod.
Figure 1 in Sex change and reproductive output of the protandric shrimp Merguia rhizophorae (Rathbun, 1900) (Decapoda, Merguiidae)
Figure 1. (a) Occurrence of Merguia rhizophorae along the western Atlantic. The red circle shows Vaza- Barris estuarine region of Sergipe State, northeastern coast of Brazil and blue circle shows the previous records of the species (obtained from literature and Global Biodiversity Information Facility – GBIF; http://www.gbif.org); (b–c) Sampling site in a fringe mangrove forest; (d) Excavation of the burrows using a spatula; (e) Burrows (white arrows) inhabited by mud shrimps (yellow arrow) distributed on the sediment of the intertidal zone; (f) lateral view of Merguia rhizophorae (Rathbun 1900). Photo credits: Douglas F.R. Alves.
Figure 3 in Sex change and reproductive output of the protandric shrimp Merguia rhizophorae (Rathbun, 1900) (Decapoda, Merguiidae)
Figure 3. Sex change in Merguia rhizophorae (Rathbun 1900). (a) Size frequency distribution of body size (CL, mm); (b) Adjustment of the logistic function, indicating the carapace length (CL, mm) where 50% of the female phase shrimps are morphologically mature. Legend: MP, male phase; FPNO, female phase non-ovigerous; FPO, female phase ovigerous.
Distribution. Now restricted to the Channel Country of SW Queensland and the Lake Eyre Basin in NE South Australia. Descriptive notes. Head-body 95-120 mm, tail 105-160 mm, ear 23-29 mm, hindfoot 32-37 mm; weight 30-50 g. The Fawn Hopping Mouse has body form typical of hopping mice, with very long hindfeet, long tail with distal brush of longer hairs, very long ears, and large protruberant eyes. Dorsal fur is of variable color, from pale pinkish fawn to gray; ventral fur white. Unlike most other hopping mice, it has no throat pouch, but males have a glandular area of naked skin on the chest. Habitat. Occurs in low shrublands and tussock grasslands on stony ("gibber") plains and claypans. Shows marked habitat segregation from the Dusky Hopping Mouse (N. fuscus), which is closely associated with sandy substrates. Food and Feeding. The Fawn Hopping Mouse is mostly granivorous, but also eats other plant material (stems, leaves) and occasionally invertebrates. It uses succulent, salt-adapted plants around edges of claypans as a source of water. Breeding. Reproduction is probably largely opportunistic and aseasonal, with high reproductive output from near-continuous breeding after periods of high rainfall; reported littersize is 1-5, most commonly three; gestation period 38-43 days for nonlactating females. Females may mature later than other hopping mice, with reproductive maturity reached at about six months. Activity patterns. Terrestrial and nocturnal. Fawn Hopping Mice shelter during day in burrow systems that are typically simpler and shallower than those of other hopping mice. Movements, Home range and Social organization. Fawn Hopping Mice generally live singly or in small groups; typically uncommon within range, but population density may increase by an order of magnitude following periods of high rainfall. Status and Conservation. Classified as Near Threatened on The IUCN Red List. The Fawn Hopping Mouse has shown marked decline in range (estimated at greater than 50%), and presumably population size, since European settlement of Australia. This is mostlikely due to predation by the introduced house cat and Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes), and to habitat degradation associated with pastoralism. Bibliography. Brazenor (1934), Burbidge et al. (2008), Finlayson (1939), Gould (1853), Jackson & Groves (2015), Murray et al. (1999), Ogilby (1892), Thomas (1921h), Van Dyck & Strahan (2008), Waite (1898), Watts & Aslin (1981), Woinarski et al. (2014), Wood Jones (1925). in Muridae
Distribution. Now restricted to the Channel Country of SW Queensland and the Lake Eyre Basin in NE South Australia. Descriptive notes. Head-body 95-120 mm, tail 105-160 mm, ear 23-29 mm, hindfoot 32-37 mm; weight 30-50 g. The Fawn Hopping Mouse has body form typical of hopping mice, with very long hindfeet, long tail with distal brush of longer hairs, very long ears, and large protruberant eyes. Dorsal fur is of variable color, from pale pinkish fawn to gray; ventral fur white. Unlike most other hopping mice, it has no throat pouch, but males have a glandular area of naked skin on the chest. Habitat. Occurs in low shrublands and tussock grasslands on stony ("gibber") plains and claypans. Shows marked habitat segregation from the Dusky Hopping Mouse (N. fuscus), which is closely associated with sandy substrates. Food and Feeding. The Fawn Hopping Mouse is mostly granivorous, but also eats other plant material (stems, leaves) and occasionally invertebrates. It uses succulent, salt-adapted plants around edges of claypans as a source of water. Breeding. Reproduction is probably largely opportunistic and aseasonal, with high reproductive output from near-continuous breeding after periods of high rainfall; reported littersize is 1-5, most commonly three; gestation period 38-43 days for nonlactating females. Females may mature later than other hopping mice, with reproductive maturity reached at about six months. Activity patterns. Terrestrial and nocturnal. Fawn Hopping Mice shelter during day in burrow systems that are typically simpler and shallower than those of other hopping mice. Movements, Home range and Social organization. Fawn Hopping Mice generally live singly or in small groups; typically uncommon within range, but population density may increase by an order of magnitude following periods of high rainfall. Status and Conservation. Classified as Near Threatened on The IUCN Red List. The Fawn Hopping Mouse has shown marked decline in range (estimated at greater than 50%), and presumably population size, since European settlement of Australia. This is mostlikely due to predation by the introduced house cat and Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes), and to habitat degradation associated with pastoralism. Bibliography. Brazenor (1934), Burbidge et al. (2008), Finlayson (1939), Gould (1853), Jackson & Groves (2015), Murray et al. (1999), Ogilby (1892), Thomas (1921h), Van Dyck & Strahan (2008), Waite (1898), Watts & Aslin (1981), Woinarski et al. (2014), Wood Jones (1925).
Lifetime reproductive output and life-history traits of lizards
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><b>Aim: </b>Latitudinal gradients in life-history traits are apparent in many taxa and are expected to be strong for ectotherms that have temperature-driven constraints on performance and fitness. The strength of these gradients, however, should also be affected by diet. Because diet type (carnivory, omnivory, herbivory) influences accessibility to nutrition and assimilation efficiency, we aim to study how diet affects latitudinal gradients in lifetime reproductive output and the underlying life-history traits in ectotherms.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><b>Location: </b>Global.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><b>Time period: </b>Recent.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><b>Major taxa studied: </b>Lizards (Reptilia, Squamata, Sauria).</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><b>Methods: </b>We used empirical (352 species) and phylogenetically imputed data (563 species) to analyse the interactive effects of latitude and diet on life-history traits (longevity, age at maturity, reproductive lifespan, hatchling mass, clutch/brood size, clutch/brood frequency, female mass) and lifetime reproductive output of lizards.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><b>Results: </b>Lifetime reproductive output does not significantly differ in lizards across diet types, and only carnivores exhibit a small increase at higher latitudes. Diet type, however, influences latitudinal patterns of individual life-history traits. Carnivores exhibit a shift towards "slower-paced" life-histories at higher latitudes for most traits (increased longevity, age at maturity, reproductive lifespan, and decreased clutch frequency). By contrast, herbivores either display "faster-paced" life-histories (reduction in reproductive lifespan, hatchling mass, female mass) or no change (clutch frequency, clutch size, age at maturity) at higher latitudes. Omnivores exhibit intermediate and muted latitudinal patterns.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><b>Main conclusions: </b>We suggest that the nutritional challenges of herbivory, compounded by thermal constraints at higher latitudes, may explain differences in life-history characteristics of herbivorous ectotherms. Intermediate patterns exhibited by omnivores highlight how flexibility in diet can buffer environmental challenges at higher latitudes. Our results indicate that lizards with different diet types display various trends in their life-histories across latitudes, which eventually balance out to result in similar reproductive outputs throughout their lifetime, with little benefits to carnivory.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
Data from: Field-realistic exposure to the novel insecticide flupyradifurone reduces reproductive output in a bumblebee (Bombus impatiens)
<p>Novel insecticides are continuously being developed for application in response to increased legal restriction of previously developed insecticides and resistance in target insects. These novel insecticides, such as flupyradifurone (FPF), remain relatively untested on non-target organisms, including bumblebees. Further, existing tests on honeybees tend to focus on adult mortality, and thus sub-lethal effects, such as impacts on reproductive output, are neglected, despite their importance for population-level impacts. To address if the novel insecticide FPF has sub-lethal effects on bumblebee reproduction and behavior, we established microcolonies and chronically exposed them to field-realistic concentrations over a 14-day period. We found that exposure to FPF reduced the bumblebees' reproductive output in terms of the number of larvae produced and the mean mass of each larval instar. FPF-treated bees also stored less sucrose and constructed fewer honeypots. However, adult bumblebee mortality was similar between control and FPF-exposed microcolonies. Our results show that field-realistic FPF exposure leads to increased larval mortality and/or delayed larval development, as well as reduced nectar storage, without affecting adult mortality. Policy implications: Insecticides that impair bumblebee reproduction can have long-term population-level consequences, even if adult bees do not experience increased mortality. Despite this fact, sub-lethal effects, such as impacts on reproduction, are not mandatorily assessed within the regulatory process. Our findings highlight the importance of determining sub-lethal effects of pesticides across developmental stages, as well as using pollinator species other than honeybees within the regulatory process.</p>
Data from: Contrasting effects of land cover on nesting habitat use and reproductive output for bumble bees
<p><span><span><a name="_Hlk64216363">Understanding habitat quality is central to understanding the distributions of species on the landscape, as well as to conserving and restoring at-risk species. Although it is well-known that many species require different resources throughout their life cycles, pollinator conservation efforts focus almost exclusively on forage resources. In this study, we evaluate nesting habitat for bumble bees by locating nests directly on the landscape. We compared colony density and colony reproductive output for <i>Bombus impatiens, </i>the common eastern bumble bee, across three different land cover types (hay fields, meadows, and forests). We also assessed nesting habitat associations for all <i>Bombus</i> nests located during surveys to tease apart species-specific patterns of habitat use. We found that <i>B. impatiens</i> nested under the ground in two natural land cover types, forests and meadows, but found no <i>B. impatiens</i> nests in hay fields. Though <i>B. impatiens</i> nested at similar densities in both meadows and forests, colonies in forests had much higher reproductive output<i>. </i></a>In contrast, <i>B. griseocollis</i> tended to nest on the surface of the ground and was almost always found in meadows. <i>B. perplexis</i> was the only species to nest in all three habitat types, including hay fields. For some bumble bee species in this system, meadows, the habitat type with abundant forage resources, may be sufficient to maintain them throughout their life cycles. However, <i>B. impatiens</i> might benefit from heterogeneous landscapes with forests and meadows. Results for <i>B. impatiens</i> emphasize the longstanding notion that habitat use is not always positively correlated with habitat quality (as measured by reproductive output). Our results also show that habitat selection by bumble bees at one spatial scale may be influenced by resources at other scales. Finally, we demonstrate the feasibility of direct nest searches for understanding bumble bee distribution and ecology. </span></span></p>
Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?
<p>README: Supplementary Information</p> <p> </p> <p>In this document, we list the supplementary material that supports our results and conclusions and we provide a description of what each file contains.</p> <p> </p> <p>Supplementary Tables</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Table S1: metadata</strong></p> <p>This file contains various information about the nesting sites studied, including their location and respective Regional Management Unit (RMU, as per Wallace, B. P., et al. 2010. "Regional management units for marine turtles: a novel framework for prioritizing conservation and research across multiple scales." PLoS One 5(12): e15465), the number of nesting seasons with nest count data and how monitoring is conducted, the number of temperature loggers deployed, their type and where they were placed in the clutch, hatchling measurements in terms of straight carapace length (SCL in mm), and whether data from the literature (incubation experiments at constant temperature) was available at the RMU level to estimate thermal tolerance curves (see the column labeled ‘hatching success lab. data for this RMU (literature)’) and sex ratio thermal reaction norms (see the column labeled ‘sex ratio lab. data for this RMU (literature)’).</p> <p>The file also summarizes the parameters used to reconstruct nest temperature following the method in Monsinjon, J. R., et al. (2019) "The climatic debt of loggerhead sea turtle populations in a warming world." Ecological Indicators 107: 105657: mean diel thermal amplitude in °C (daily maxima minus daily minima), average time of daily min. temperatures in decimal hours, average time of daily max. temperatures in decimal hours, number of days lagged with sea surface temperature (SST), number of days lagged with two-meter air temperature (T2M), GLM coefficient of the Intercept, GLM coefficient of the relationship with SST, GLM coefficient of the relationship with T2M, GLM coefficient of the relationship with the proportion of incubation time used to infer metabolic heating (MH), and standard deviation of the coefficients of the nests from the GLMM random effect used to estimate the thermal heterogeneity.</p> <p>IPCC regions from which predicted increases in air and sea temperatures were extracted are indicated along with the values extracted for the future changes in temperature (median). The settings selected to extract the warming scenarios from the online interface are given below:</p> <ul> <li>IPCC's atlas: https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/regional-information</li> <li>Dataset = CMIP6 (Model projections)</li> <li>Variable = Mean temperature (T) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies (change in deg C)</li> <li>Region set = WGI reference-regions (or Small islands for Tetiaroa, French Polynesia)</li> <li>Uncertainty = Advanced</li> <li>Baseline period = 1981-2010</li> <li>Future period = 2081-2100</li> <li>Season = Annual</li> <li>Scenario “Middle of the road” (SSP2-4.5): Approximately in line with the upper end of combined pledges under the Paris Agreement. The scenario “deviates mildly from a ‘no-additional climate-policy’ reference scenario, resulting in a best-estimate warming around 2.7°C by the end of the 21st century”.</li> </ul> <p>The remaining columns show the shift (number of days) in nesting phenology estimated for the IPCC regions according to seawater warming scenarios, and using either the mean or the extreme (max.) coefficient of the negative linear relationship between nesting dates and sea water temperature (using the literature data presented in <strong>Supp. Info. Table S6</strong>).</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Table S2: hatching success literature data</strong></p> <p>This file contains the literature data on hatching success from incubation experiments conducted at various constant temperatures. For each species, the Regional Management Unit (RMU) is specified.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Table S3: mean temperature and hatching success</strong></p> <p>This file contains in-situ hatching success data and associated mean temperatures during the whole incubation period. Data are from the literature and the present study (refer to <strong>Supp. Info. Table S1</strong> for the 3-letter beach codes). Note that the nesting season is specified only for the present study.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Table S4:</strong> <strong>sex ratio literature data</strong></p> <p>This file contains the literature data on sex ratio from incubation experiments conducted at various constant temperatures. For each species, the Regional Management Unit (RMU) is specified.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Table S5: in situ hatching success</strong></p> <p>This file contains in-situ hatching success data measured at 19 of our 24 study sites encompassing the four species considered for this study: <em>Caretta caretta</em>, <em>Chelonia mydas</em>, <em>Eretmochelys imbricata</em>, and <em>Lepidochelys olivacea</em> (refer to <strong>Supp. Info Table S1</strong> for the 3-letter beach codes). When the number of eggs was not available, we calculated the number that hatched by multiplying the survival proportion by 100 and rounding the value. And we calculated the number of eggs that did not hatch by subtracting the number that hatched from 100.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Table S6: phenological shifts</strong></p> <p>This file contains the literature data on the relationship between nesting dates and thermal environmental cues. The grey rows (*) indicate cases that were not considered because the study reported either non-significant relationships or positive relationships between the proxy for nesting phenology and the environmental cue (i.e., a delay of nesting dates with increasing temperatures instead of a shift earlier as assumed in the present study).</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Table S7: required phenological shifts earlier and later in the nesting season</strong></p> <p>This file contains the estimated required phenological shifts (number of days earlier or later in the season to stay within present-day conditions) and associated rates (number of days earlier or later per 1°C increase in sea surface temperature) that would be necessary to achieve required shifts. Rates were calculated by dividing the required shifts by projected increases in sea surface temperature at our sites (see <strong>Supp. Info. Table S1</strong>). Required shifts and rates were calculated for our indicators of incubation temperature (IT in column labels; phenological shifts required for the future median incubation temperature index to remain below the 75<sup>th</sup> percentile of current conditions), hatching success (HS in column labels; phenological shifts required for the future median hatching success index to remain above the 25<sup>th</sup> percentile of current conditions), and sex ratio (SR in column labels; phenological shifts required for the future median sex ratio index, in proportion of males, to remain above the 25<sup>th</sup> percentile of current conditions). NAs mean that no shift was found to remain within present-day conditions. Refer to <strong>Supp. Info Table S1</strong> for the 3-letter beach codes.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Table S8: hatching success and sex ratio ranges per site</strong></p> <p>This file contains statistics (minimum, median, and maximum) on hatching success (HS in survival proportion) and sex ratio (SR in male proportion) for each study site, and the climate (SSP2-4.5) and phenology (no shift, mean shift, and max. shift) scenarios presented in the core manuscript. For each study site (see <strong>Supp. Info. Table S1</strong> for the 3-letter beach codes in the first column), ranges are calculated between 2007-2020 for the present conditions and between 2059-2100 for the future conditions.</p> <p> </p> <p>Supplementary Figures</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Figure S1: hatching success and sex ratio reaction norms</strong></p> <p>This figure shows the hatching success and sex ratio thermal reaction norms estimated using literature data at controlled incubation temperatures (see data in <strong>Supp. Info. Table S2</strong> and <strong>Supp. Info. Table S4</strong>) for the four species considered here: <em>Caretta caretta</em>, <em>Chelonia mydas</em>, <em>Eretmochelys imbricata</em>, and <em>Lepidochelys olivacea</em>. Points are observations and error bars are their confidence intervals. Continuous lines are estimated curves with shades of grey being the confidence intervals. Reaction norms were fitted using data at the species-level (black) and the RMU-level (red) when available.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Figure S2: output examples in 2018-2020</strong></p> <p>This figure shows five successive panels for each study site. In the first panel, we show reconstructed nest temperature without metabolic heating under present (black) and future (SSP2-4.5 in red) scenarios. The blue line shows the estimated pattern of nesting activity assuming no change in phenology and the purple and pink ones corresponds to those assuming a maximum shift (i.e., -18.85 d.°C<sup>-1</sup>) and a mean shift (i.e., -6.86 d.°C<sup>-1</sup>), respectively, in nesting dates under the SSP2-4.5 warming scenario (see median values in <strong>Supp. Info. Table S1</strong>). The following panels show the outputs for hatching success and sex ratio under the present and SSP2-4.5 climate scenarios. Information on the study sites is shown in the title (species, location, 3-letter beach codes).</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Figure S3: required shift for incubation temperature</strong></p> <p>This figure shows the backward (earlier nesting) and forward (later nesting) phenological shifts required (vertical arrows) for the future median incubation temperature index (the black continuous line, with grey shaded areas representing the 25<sup>th</sup> and 75<sup>th</sup> percentiles) to remain below the 75<sup>th</sup> percentile of current conditions. The black rectangle represents the 25<sup>th</sup> and 75<sup>th</sup> percentiles of current conditions and the black point is the median. The red point shows the median of future conditions under the SSP2-4.5 warming scenario assuming no phenological shift, the blue point according to the mean phenological shift, and the green point according to the maximum phenological shift. Refer to <strong>Supp. Info. Table S1</strong> for the 3-letter beach codes.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Figure S4: required shift for hatching success</strong></p> <p>This figure shows the backward (earlier nesting) and forward (later nesting) phenological shifts required (vertical arrows) for the future median hatching success index (the black continuous line, with grey shaded areas representing the 25<sup>th</sup> and 75<sup>th</sup> percentiles) to remain above the 25<sup>th</sup> percentile of current conditions. The black rectangle represents the 25<sup>th</sup> and 75<sup>th</sup> percentiles of current conditions and the black point is the median. The red point shows the median of future conditions under the SSP2-4.5 warming scenario assuming no phenological shift, the blue point according to the mean phenological shift, and the green point according to the maximum phenological shift. Refer to <strong>Supp. Info. Table S1</strong> for the 3-letter beach codes.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Figure S5: required shift for sex ratio</strong></p> <p>This figure shows the backward (earlier nesting) and forward (later nesting) phenological shifts required (vertical arrows) for the future median sex ratio index, in proportion of males (the black continuous line, with grey shaded areas representing the 25<sup>th</sup> and 75<sup>th</sup> percentiles), to remain above the 25<sup>th</sup> percentile of current conditions. The black rectangle represents the 25<sup>th</sup> and 75<sup>th</sup> percentiles of current conditions and the black point is the median. The red point shows the median of future conditions under the SSP2-4.5 warming scenario assuming no phenological shift, the blue point according to the mean phenological shift, and the green point according to the maximum phenological shift. Refer to <strong>Supp. Info. Table S1</strong> for the 3-letter beach codes.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Figure S6: incubation temperature fit quality for each site</strong></p> <p>This figure shows the predicted vs observed daily mean incubation temperatures (individually for each site). The grey dashed line is the line of equality, and the red line shows the orthogonal regression. Refer to <strong>Supp. Info. Table S1</strong> for the 3-letter beach codes.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Supp. Info. Figure S7: sensitivity analysis</strong></p> <p>This figure shows the differences in hatching success (survival proportion) and sex ratio (male proportion) when predicted using laboratory data (from constant temperature experiments found in the literature: see <strong>Supp. Info. Table S2 </strong>and <strong>Supp. Info. Table S4</strong>) either at the species level or at the Regional Management Unit (RMU) level. Differences are plotted for two climate scenarios (present and SSP2-4.5) and three phenology scenarios (no shift, mean shift, max. shift: see values in number of days shifted earlier in <strong>Supp. Info. Table S1</strong>). We considered only predictions for <em>Caretta caretta</em> (Cc in orange), <em>Eretmochelys imbricata</em> (Ei in yellow) and <em>Lepidochelys olivacea</em> (Lo in green). Data at the RMU level were not available at our study sites for <em>Chelonia mydas</em>. Black dashed lines represent the line of equality.</p> <p> </p>
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Allen Brain Atlas
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