Find research datasets worth reusing

Data from: Combining role-play with interactive simulation to motivate informed climate action: evidence from the World Climate simulation

Climate change communication efforts grounded in the information deficit model have largely failed to close the gap between scientific and public understanding of the risks posed by climate change. In response, simulations have been proposed to enable people to learn for themselves about this complex and politically charged topic. Here we assess the impact of a widely-used simulation, World Climate, which combines a socially and emotionally engaging role-play with interactive exploration of climate change science through the C-ROADS climate simulation model. Participants take on the roles of delegates to the UN climate negotiations and are challenged to create an agreement that meets international climate goals. Their decisions are entered into C-ROADS, which provides immediate feedback about expected global climate impacts, enabling them to learn about climate change while experiencing the social dynamics of negotiations. We assess the impact of World Climate by analyzing pre- and post-survey results from >2,000 participants in 39 sessions in eight nations. We find statistically significant gains in three areas: (i) knowledge of climate change causes, dynamics and impacts; (ii) affective engagement including greater feelings of urgency and hope; and (iii) a desire to learn and do more about climate change. Contrary to the deficit model, gains in urgency were associated with gains in participants' desire to learn more and intent to act, while gains in climate knowledge were not. Gains were just as strong among American participants who oppose government regulation of free markets - a political ideology that has been linked to climate change denial in the US - suggesting the simulation's potential to reach across political divides. The results indicate that World Climate offers a climate change communication tool that enables people to learn and feel for themselves, which together have the potential to motivate action informed by science.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Climate variability predicts thermal limits of aquatic insects across elevation and latitude

Janzen's extension of the climate variability hypothesis posits that increased seasonal variation at high latitudes should result in greater temperature overlap across elevations, and favor wider thermal breadths in temperate organisms compared to their tropical counterparts. We tested these predictions by measuring stream temperatures and thermal breadths (i.e. the difference between the critical thermal maximum and minimum) of 62 aquatic insect species from temperate (Colorado, USA) and tropical (Papallacta, Ecuador) streams spanning an elevation gradient of ca. 2000m. Temperate streams exhibited greater seasonal temperature variation and overlap across elevations than tropical streams, and as predicted, temperate aquatic insects exhibited broader thermal breadths than tropical insects. However, elevation had contrasting effects on patterns of thermal breadth. In temperate species, thermal breadth decreased with increasing elevation because CTMAX declined with elevation while CTMIN was similar across elevations. In tropical insects, by contrast, CTMAX declined less sharply than CTMIN with elevation, causing thermal breadth to increase with elevation. These macrophysiological patterns are consistent with the narrower elevation ranges found in other tropical organisms, and they extend Janzen's climate variability hypothesis to freshwater streams. Furthermore, because lowland tropical aquatic insects have the narrowest thermal breadths of any region, they may be particularly vulnerable to short-term extreme changes in stream temperature.

Data from: Climate-mediated hybrid zone movement revealed with genomics, museum collection and simulation modeling

Climate-mediated changes in hybridization will dramatically alter the genetic diversity, adaptive capacity and evolutionary trajectory of interbreeding species. Our ability to predict the consequences of such changes will be key to future conservation and management decisions. Here we tested through simulations how recent warming (over a 32-year period) is affecting the geographic extent of a climate-mediated developmental threshold implicated in maintaining a butterfly hybrid zone (Papilio glaucus and Papilio canadensis; Lepidoptera: Papilionidae). These simulations predict a 68 km shift of this hybrid zone. To empirically test this prediction, we assessed genetic and phenotypic changes using contemporary and museum collections and document a 40 km northward shift of this hybrid zone. Interactions between the two species appear relatively unchanged during hybrid zone movement. We found no change in the frequency of hybridization and regions of the genome that experience little to no introgression moved largely in concert with the shifting hybrid zone. Model predictions based on climate scenarios predict this hybrid zone will continue to move northward, but with substantial spatial heterogeneity in the velocity (55-144 km/1°C), shape, and contiguity of movement. Our findings suggest that the presence of non-climatic barriers (e.g., genetic incompatibilities) and/or non-linear responses to climatic gradients may preserve species boundaries as the species shift. Further, we show that variation in the "geography" of hybrid zone movement could result in evolutionary responses that differ for geographically distinct populations spanning hybrid zones and thus have implications for the conservation and management of genetic diversity.

opencc-zeroFeb 2020View details →

Data from: Herbivory and climate as drivers of woody plant growth: Do deer decrease the impacts of warming?

Vegetation at ecotone transitions between open and forested areas is often heavily affected by two key processes: climate change and management of large herbivore densities. These both drive woody plant state-shifts, determining the location and the nature of the limit between open and tree or shrub-dominated landscapes. In order to adapt management to prevailing and future climate, we need to understand how browsing and climatic factors together affect the growth of plants at biome borders. To disentangle herbivory and climate effects, we combined long-term tree growth monitoring and dendroecology to investigate woody plant growth under different temperatures and red deer (Cervus elaphus) herbivory pressures at forest-moorland ecotones in the Scottish highlands. Reforestation and deer densities are core and conflicting management concerns in the area, and there is an urgent need for additional knowledge. We found that deer herbivory and climate had significant and interactive effects on tree growth: in the presence of red deer, pine (Pinus sylvestris) growth responded more strongly to annual temperature than in the absence of deer, possibly reflecting differing plant-plant competition and facilitation conditions. As expected, pine growth was negatively related to deer density and positively to temperature. However, at the tree population level, warming decreased growth when more than 60% of shoots were browsed. Heather (Calluna vulgaris) growth was negatively related to temperature and the direction of the response to deer switched from negative to positive when mean annual temperatures fell below 6.0°C. In addition, our models allow estimates to be made of how woody plant growth responds under specific combinations of temperature and herbivory, and show how deer management can be adapted to predicted climatic changes in order to more effectively achieve reforestation goals. Our results support the hypothesis that temperature and herbivory have interactive effects on woody plant growth, and thus accounting for just one of these two factors is insufficient for understanding plant growth mechanics at biome transitions. Furthermore, we show that climate-driven woody plant growth increases can be negated by herbivory.

Data from: Asynchronous demographic responses to Pleistocene climate change in Eastern Nearctic vertebrates

Pleistocene climatic cycles altered species distributions in the Eastern Nearctic of North America, yet the degree of congruent demographic response to the Pleistocene among codistributed taxa remains unknown. We use a hierarchical approximate Bayesian computational approach to test if population sizes across lineages of snakes, lizards, turtles, mammals, birds, salamanders and frogs in this region expanded synchronously to Late Pleistocene climate changes. Expansion occurred in 75% of 74 lineages, and of these, population size trajectories across the community were partially synchronous, with coexpansion found in at least 50% of lineages in each taxonomic group. For those taxa expanding outside of these synchronous pulses, factors related to when they entered the community, ecological thresholds or biotic interactions likely condition their timing of response to Pleistocene climate change. Unified timing of population size change across communities in response to Pleistocene climate cycles is likely rare in North America.

Data from: The role of climate, water and biotic interactions in shaping biodiversity patterns in arid environments across spatial scales

Aim: Desert ecosystems, with their harsh environmental conditions, hold the key to understanding the responses of biodiversity to climate change. As desert community structure is influenced by processes acting at different spatial scales, studies combining multiple scales are essential for understanding the conservation requirements of desert biota. We investigated the role of environmental variables and biotic interactions in shaping broad and fine-scale patterns of diversity and distribution of bats in arid environments to understand how the expansion of nondesert species can affect the long-term conservation of desert biodiversity. Location: Levant, Eastern Mediterranean. Methods: We combine species distribution modelling and niche overlap statistics with a statistical model selection approach to integrate interspecific interactions into broadscale distribution models and fine-scale analysis of ecological requirements. We focus on competition between desert bats and mesic species that recently expanded their distribution into arid environment following anthropogenic land-use changes. Results: We show that both climate and water availability limit bat distributions and diversity across spatial scales. The broadscale distribution of bats was determined by proximity to water and high temperatures, although the latter did not affect the distribution of mesic species. At the fine-scale, high levels of bat activity and diversity were associated with increased water availability and warmer periods. Desert species were strongly associated with warmer and drier desert types. Range and niche overlap were high among potential competitors, but coexistence was facilitated through fine-scale spatial partitioning of water resources. Main conclusions: Adaptations to drier and warmer conditions allow desert-obligate species to prevail in more arid environments. However, this competitive advantage may disappear as anthropogenic activities encroach further into desert habitats. We conclude that reduced water availability in arid environments under future climate change projections pose a major threat to desert wildlife because it can affect survival and reproductive success and may increase competition over remaining water resources.

Data from: Long-term climate and competition explain forest mortality patterns under extreme drought

Rising temperatures are amplifying drought-induced stress and mortality in forests globally. It remains uncertain, however, whether tree mortality across drought-stricken landscapes will be concentrated in particular climatic and competitive environments. We investigated the effects of long-term average climate [i.e. 35-year mean annual climatic water deficit (CWD)] and competition (i.e. tree basal area) on tree mortality patterns, using extensive aerial mortality surveys conducted throughout the forests of California during a 4-year statewide extreme drought lasting from 2012 to 2015. During this period, tree mortality increased by an order of magnitude, typically from tens to hundreds of dead trees per km2, rising dramatically during the fourth year of drought. Mortality rates increased independently with average CWD and with basal area, and they increased disproportionately in areas that were both dry and dense. These results can assist forest managers and policy-makers in identifying the most drought-vulnerable forests across broad geographic areas.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Patterns of divergence across the geographic and genomic landscape of a butterfly hybrid zone associated with a climatic gradient

Hybrid zones are a valuable tool for studying the process of speciation and for identifying the genomic regions undergoing divergence and the ecological (extrinsic) and non-ecological (intrinsic) factors involved. Here, we explored the genomic and geographic landscape of divergence in a hybrid zone between Papilio glaucus and Papilio canadensis. Using a genome scan of 28,417 ddRAD SNPs, we identified genomic regions under possible selection and examined their distribution in the context of previously identified candidate genes for ecological adaptations. We showed that differentiation was genome-wide, including multiple candidate genes for ecological adaptations, particularly those involved in seasonal adaptation and host plant detoxification. The Z-chromosome and four autosomes showed a disproportionate amount of differentiation, suggesting genes on these chromosomes play a potential role in reproductive isolation. Cline analyses of significantly differentiated genomic SNPs, and of species diagnostic genetic markers, showed a high degree of geographic coincidence (81%) and concordance (80%) and were associated with the geographic distribution of a climate-mediated developmental threshold (length of the growing season). A relatively large proportion (1.3%) of the outliers for divergent selection were not associated with candidate genes for ecological adaptations and may reflect the presence of previously unrecognized intrinsic barriers between these species. These results suggest that exogenous (climate-mediated) and endogenous (unknown) clines may have become coupled and act together to reinforce reproductive isolation. This approach of assessing divergence across both the genomic and geographic landscape can provide insight about the interplay between the genetic architecture of reproductive isolation and endogenous and exogenous selection.

Data from: Nitrogen cycling and export in California chaparral: the role of climate in shaping ecosystem responses to fire

Climate change models predict that interannual rainfall variability will increase in California over the next several decades; these changes will likely influence how frequently California ecosystems burn and how they respond to fire. Fires uncouple N mobilization from uptake by destroying plant biomass and increasing nitrification. Following fire, autumn and winter rains can leach N into streams from slopes that have been denuded. The amount of N exported depends on how rapidly soil microbes metabolize it into mobile forms such as NO3-, and the rate that recovering plants take up available N. However, the long-term effects of a changing climate on postfire N dynamics remain unknown. We used the ecohydrologic model RHESSys (regional hydro-ecologic simulation system) to evaluate how interannual climate variability may affect the magnitude of N mineralization, nitrification, N export, and plant recovery following fire. N export was highest when fire was followed by drought; even though there was less water moving through the system, dry conditions prolonged the period during which N mobilization was decoupled from plant uptake. We also found that the effects of drought on N export were magnified in stands dominated by obligate seeders, which initially recovered more slowly than resprouters. These findings suggest that climate may regulate N balance most powerfully by influencing how quickly plants "turn on" and begin to immobilize N.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Data from: Why is Amazonia a 'source' of biodiversity? climate-mediated dispersal and synchronous speciation across the Andes in an avian group (Tityrinae)

Amazonia is a 'source' of biodiversity for other Neotropical ecosystems, but which conditions trigger in situ speciation and emigration is contentious. Three hypotheses for how communities have assembled include (1) a stochastic model wherein chance dispersal events lead to gradual emigration and species accumulation, (2) diversity-dependence wherein successful dispersal events decline through time due to ecological limits, and (3) barrier displacement wherein environmental change facilitates dispersal to other biomes via transient habitat corridors. We sequenced thousands of molecular markers for the Neotropical Tityrinae (Aves) and applied a novel filtering protocol to identify loci with high utility for dated phylogenomics. We used these loci to estimate divergence times and model Tityrinae's evolutionary history. We detected a prominent role for speciation driven by barriers including synchronous speciation across the Andes, and found that dispersal increased toward the present. Because diversification was continuous but dispersal was non-random over time, we show that barrier displacement better explains Tityrinae's history than stochasticity or diversity-dependence. We propose that Amazonia is a source of biodiversity because (1) it is a relic of a biome that was once more extensive, (2) environmentally-mediated corridors facilitated emigration, and (3) constant diversification is attributed to a spatially heterogeneous landscape that is perpetually dynamic through time.

Data from: Dietary responses of Sahul (Pleistocene Australia–New Guinea) megafauna to climate and environmental change

Throughout the late Quaternary, the Sahul (Pleistocene Australia–New Guinea) vertebrate fauna was dominated by a diversity of large mammals, birds, and reptiles, commonly referred to as megafauna. Since ca. 450–400Ka, approximately 88 species disappeared in Sahul, including kangaroos exceeding 200kg in size, wombat-like animals the size of hippopotamuses, flightless birds, and giant monitor lizards that were likely venomous. Ongoing debates over the primary cause of these extinctions have typically favored climate change or human activities. Improving our understanding of the population biology of extinct megafauna as more refined paleoenvironmental data sets become available will assist in identifying their potential vulnerabilities. Here, we apply a multiproxy approach to analyze fossil teeth from deposits dated to the middle and late Pleistocene at Cuddie Springs in southeastern Australia, assessing relative aridity via oxygen isotopes as well as vegetation and megafaunal diets using both carbon isotopes and dental microwear texture analyses. We report that the Cuddie Springs middle Pleistocene fauna was largely dominated by browsers, including consumers of C4 shrubs, but that by late Pleistocene times the C4 dietary component was markedly reduced. Our results suggest dietary restriction in more arid conditions. These dietary shifts are consistent with other independently derived isotopic data from eggshells and wombat teeth that also suggest a reduction in C4 vegetation after ~45 Ka in southeastern Australia, coincident with increasing aridification through the middle to late Pleistocene. Understanding the ecology of extinct species is important in clarifying the primary drivers of faunal extinction in Sahul. The results presented here highlight the potential impacts of aridification on marsupial megafauna. The trend to increasingly arid conditions through the middle to late Pleistocene (as identified in other paleoenvironmental records and now also observed, in part, in the Cuddie Springs sequence) may have stressed the most vulnerable animals, perhaps accelerating the decline of late Pleistocene megafauna in Australia.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Data from: Local range boundaries versus large-scale tradeoffs: climatic and competitive constraints on tree growth

Species often respond to human‐caused climate change by shifting where they occur on the landscape. To anticipate these shifts, we need to understand the forces that determine where species currently occur. We tested whether a long‐hypothesised trade‐off between climate and competitive constraints explains where tree species grow on mountain slopes. Using tree rings, we reconstructed growth sensitivity to climate and competition in range centre and range margin tree populations in three climatically distinct regions. We found that climate often constrains growth at environmentally harsh elevational range boundaries, and that climatic and competitive constraints trade‐off at large spatial scales. However, there was less evidence that competition consistently constrained growth at benign elevational range boundaries; thus, local‐scale climate‐competition trade‐offs were infrequent. Our work underscores the difficulty of predicting local‐scale range dynamics, but suggests that the constraints on tree performance at a large‐scale (e.g. latitudinal) may be predicted from ecological theory.

zenodo36/100

Montreal high-resolution climate data

This proof-of-concept study couples machine learning and physical modelling paradigms to develop a computationally efficient simulator-emulator framework for generating super-resolution (< 250 m) urban climate information, that is required by many sectors. The temperature and dew point fields for 2019 and 2020 and the geophysical fields (geophys.rar) for the study domain, at 2.5 km (LR) and 250 m (HR) resolutions, which are used to train and validate the proposed super-resolution deep learning (DL) model/emulator are provided.

opencc-by-3.0-usJun 2021View details →

opencc-zeroJun 2019View details →

Data from: Impacts of rainfall extremes predicted by climate-change models on major trophic groups in the leaf-litter arthropod community

1. Arthropods in the leaf-litter layer of forest soils influence ecosystem processes such as decomposition. Climate-change models predict both increases and decreases in average rainfall. Increased drought may have greater impacts on the litter arthropod community. In addition to affecting survival or behavior of desiccation-sensitive species, lower rainfall may indirectly lower abundances of consumers that graze drought-stressed fungi, with repercussions for higher trophic levels. 2. We tested the hypothesis that trophic structure will differ between the two rainfall scenarios. In particular, we hypothesized that densities of several broadly defined trophic groupings of arthropods would be lower under reduced rainfall. 3. To test this hypothesis we used sprinklers to impose two rainfall treatments during three growing seasons in roofed, fenced 14-m2 plots; and documented changes in abundance from initial, pre-treatment densities of 39 arthropod taxa. Experimental plots were subjected to either LOW (fortnightly) or HIGH (weekly) average rainfall based upon climate models and the previous 100 years of regional weekly averages. Unroofed open plots, our reference treatment (REF), experienced higher-than-average rainfall during the experiment. 4. The two rainfall extremes produced clear negative effects of lowered rainfall on major trophic groups. Broad categories of fungivores, detritivores and predators were more abundant in HIGH than LOW plots by the final year. Springtails (Collembola), which graze fungal hyphae, were 3x more abundant in the HIGH-rainfall treatment. Taxa of larger-bodied fungivores and detritivores, spiders (Araneae), and non-spider predators were 2x more abundant under HIGH rainfall. Densities of mites (Acari), which include fungivores, detritivores and predators, were 1.5x greater in HIGH rainfall plots. Abundances and community structure of arthropods were similar in REF and experimental plots, showing that effects of rainfall uncovered in the experiment are applicable to nature. 5. This pattern suggests that changes in rainfall will alter bottom-up control processes in a critical detritus-based food web of deciduous forests. Our results, in conjunction with other findings on the impact of desiccation on arthropods and fungal growth, suggest that drier conditions will depress densities of fungal consumers, causing declines in higher trophic levels, with possible impacts on soil processes and the larger forest food web.

Data from: Correlated evolution between climate and suites of traits along a fast-slow continuum in the radiation of Protea

Evolutionary radiations are responsible for much of Earth's diversity, yet the causes of these radiations are often elusive. Determining the relative roles of adaptation and geographic isolation in diversification is vital to understanding the causes of any radiation, and whether a radiation may be labeled as 'adaptive' or not. Across many groups of plants, trait-climate relationships suggest that traits are an important indicator of how plants adapt to different climates. In particular, analyses of plant functional traits in global databases suggest that there is an "economics spectrum" along which combinations of functional traits covary along a fast-slow continuum. We examine evolutionary associations among traits and between trait and climate variables on a strongly supported phylogeny in the iconic plant genus Protea to identify correlated evolution of functional traits and the climatic-niches that species occupy. Results indicate that trait diversification in Protea has climate associations along two axes of variation: correlated evolution of plant size with temperature and leaf investment with rainfall. Evidence suggests that traits and climatic-niches evolve in similar ways, although some of these associations are inconsistent with global patterns on a broader phylogenetic scale. When combined with previous experimental work suggesting that trait-climate associations are adaptive in Protea, the results presented here suggest that trait diversification in this radiation is adaptive.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Disentangling competitive versus climatic drivers of tropical forest mortality

1. Tropical forest mortality is controlled by biotic and abiotic processes, but how these processes interact to determine forest structure is not well understood. Using long-term demography data from permanent forest plots at the Paracou Tropical Forest Research Station in French Guiana, we analyzed the relative influence of competition and climate on tree mortality. We found that self-thinning is evident at the stand level, and is associated with clumped mortality at smaller scales (< 2 m) and regular spacing of living trees at intermediate (2.5-7.5 m) scales. A competition index based on spatial clustering of dead trees was used to build predictive mortality models, which also accounted for climate interactions. 2. The model that most closely fitted observations included both the competition index and climatic variables, with climate-only and competition-only models performing worse than the full model. There was strong evidence for size-specific mortality, with highest mortality for small and very large trees, as well as sensitivity of trees to drought, especially when temperatures were high, and when soils were water saturated. The effect of the competition index was more complex than expected a priori: a higher CI index was associated with lower mortality odds, which we hypothesize is caused by gap-phase dynamics, but there was also evidence for competition-induced mortality at very high index values. 3. The strong signature of competition as a control over mortality at the stand and individual scales confirms that it plays a very important role in determining tropical forest structure. The complexity of the competition-mortality relationship and its interaction with climate indicates that a thorough consideration of the scale of analysis is needed when inferring the role of competition in tropical forests, but demonstrates that climate-only mortality models can be significantly improved by including competition effects, even when ignoring species-specific effects. 4. Synthesis Empirical models such as the one developed here can help constrain and improve process-based vegetation models, serving both as a benchmark and as a means to disentangle mortality processes. Tropical ecosystem dynamic models would benefit greatly from explicitly considering the role of competition in stand development and self-thinning while modeling demography, as well as its interaction with climate.

opencc-zeroApr 2020View details →

Data from: Planning for climate change through additions to a national protected area network: implications for cost and configuration

Expanding the network of protected areas is a core strategy for conserving biodiversity in the face of climate change. Here we explore the impacts on reserve network cost and configuration associated with planning for climate change in the United States using networks that prioritize areas projected to be climatically suitable for 1,460 species both today and into the future, climatic refugia, and areas likely to facilitate climate-driven species movements. For 14% of the species, networks of sites selected solely to protect areas currently climatically suitable failed to provide climatically suitable habitat in the future. Protecting sites climatically suitable for species today and in the future significantly changed the distribution of priority sites across the U.S.—increasing relative protection in the northeast, northwest, and central U.S. Protecting areas projected to retain their climatic suitability for species cost 59% more than solely protecting currently suitable areas. Including all climatic refugia and 20% of areas that facilitate climate-driven movements increased the cost by another 18%. Our results indicate that protecting some types of climatic refugia may be a relatively inexpensive adaptation strategy. Moreover, although addressing climate change in conservation plans will have significant implications for the configuration of networks, the increased cost of doing so may be relatively modest.

opencc-zeroFeb 2020View details →

Scaling between macro- to microscale climatic data reveals strong phylogenetic inertia in niche evolution in plethodontid salamanders

Macroclimatic niches are indirect and potentially inadequate predictors of the realized environmental conditions that many species experience. Consequently, analyses of niche evolution based on macroclimatic data alone may incompletely represent the evolutionary dynamics of species niches. Yet, understanding how an organisms' climatic (Grinnellian) niche responds to changing macroclimatic conditions is of vital importance for predicting their potential response to global change. In this study, we integrate microclimatic and macroclimatic data across 26 species of plethodontid salamanders to portray the relationship between microclimatic niche evolution in response to changing macroclimate. We demonstrate stronger phylogenetic signal in microclimatic niche variables than at the macroclimatic scale. Even so, we find that the microclimatic niche tracks climatic changes at the macroscale, but with a phylogenetic lag at million-year timescales. We hypothesize that behavioral tracking of the microclimatic niche over space and phenology generates the lag: salamanders preferentially select microclimates similar to their ancestral conditions rather than adapting with changes in physiology. We demonstrate that macroclimatic variables are weak predictors of niche evolution and that incorporating spatial scale into analyses of niche evolution is critical for predicting responses to climate change.

opencc-zeroJun 2019View details →

Data from: Multispecies conservation of freshwater fish assemblages in response to climate change in the southeastern United States

Aim: Streamflow and water temperature are primary variables influencing the distribution of freshwater taxa. Climate-induced changes in these variables are already causing shifts in species distributions, with continued changes projected in the coming decades. The Mobile River Basin (MRB), located in the southeastern United States, contains some of the highest levels of temperate freshwater biodiversity in North America. We integrated species distribution data with contemporary and future streamflow and water temperature data as well as other physical habitat data to characterize occurrence probabilities of fish species in the MRB with the goal of identifying current and future areas of high conservation value. Location: Mobile River Basin, southeastern United States Methods: We used a maximum entropy approach to estimate baseline and future occurrence probability distributions for 88 fish species in the MRB based on model-generated streamflow and water temperature as well as geologic, topographic, and land cover data. Areas of conservation prioritization were identified based on regions that contain suitable habitat for high levels of biodiversity according to baseline and future conditions while accounting for uncertainty associated with multiple future climate projections. Results: On average, flow (28%), water temperature (28%), and geology (30%) contribute evenly to determining suitable habitat for fish species in the MRB. Based on baseline and future species distribution model estimates, high priority streams (best 10%) are largely concentrated in the eastern portion of the MRB, with a majority (51%) located within the Coosa and Tallapoosa River systems. Main Conclusion: We provide a framework that uses relevant hydrologic and environmental data in the context of future climatic uncertainty to estimate areas of freshwater conservation opportunity in the coming decades. While streamflow and water temperature represent important habitat for freshwater fishes in the MRB, distributions are also constrained by other aspects of the physical environment.