Find research datasets worth reusing

Data from: Mesoscale activity facilitates energy gain in a top predator

How animal movement decisions interact with the distribution of resources to shape individual performance is a key question in ecology. However, links between spatial and behavioural ecology and fitness consequences are poorly understood because the outcomes of individual resource selection decisions, such as energy intake, are rarely measured. In the open ocean, mesoscale features (~10-100 km) such as fronts and eddies can aggregate prey and thereby drive the distribution of foraging vertebrates through bottom-up biophysical coupling. These productive features are known to attract predators, yet their role in facilitating energy transfer to top predators is opaque. We investigated the use of mesoscale features by migrating northern elephant seals and quantified the corresponding energetic gains from the seals' foraging patterns at a daily resolution. Migrating elephant seals modified their diving behaviour and selected for mesoscale features when foraging. Daily energy gain increased significantly with increasing mesoscale activity, indicating that the physical environment can influence predator fitness at fine temporal scales. Results show that areas of high mesoscale activity not only attract top predators as foraging hotspots, but also lead to increased energy transfer across trophic levels. Our study provides evidence that the physical environment is an important factor in controlling energy flow to top predators by setting the stage for variation in resource availability. Such understanding is critical for assessing how changes in the environment and resource distribution will affect individual fitness and food web dynamics.

Data from: Non-uniform evolutionary response of gecko eye size to changes in diel activity patterns

Geckos feature a large range of eye sizes, but what drives this phenotypic diversity is currently unknown. Earlier studies point towards diel activity patterns (DAP) and locomotory mode, but phylogenetic comparative studies in support of the proposed adaptive mode of eye evolution are lacking. Here we test the hypothesis of DAP as the driver of eye size evolution with a dataset on 99 species of gecko. Results from phylogenetic generalized least square analysis (PGLS) and multivariate model-fitting reveal smaller eyes in diurnal geckos consistent with different phenotypic optima. However, Bayesian analyses of selective regime shifts demonstrate that only 2 of 9 transitions from nocturnal to diurnal activity are coupled with decreases in eye size, and 2 other regime shifts are not associated with DAP transitions. This non-uniform evolutionary response suggests that eye size is not the only functionally relevant variable. Evolutionary adaptations may therefore include different combinations of several traits (e.g., photoreceptors), all with the same functional outcome. Our results further demonstrate that DAP only partially explains eye size diversity in geckos. As open habitats favor the evolution of large eyes while obstructed habitats favor small eyes, the degree of habitat clutter emerges as another potential axis of eye diversification.

opencc-zeroNov 2015View details →

Data from: Baseline immune activity is associated with date rather than with moult stage in the Arctic-breeding barnacle goose (Branta leucopsis)

Variation in immune defence in birds is often explained either by external factors such as food availability and disease pressure or by internal factors such as moult and reproductive effort. We explored these factors together in one sampling design by measuring immune activity over the time frame of the moulting period of Arctic-breeding barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis). We assessed baseline innate immunity by measuring levels of complement-mediated lysis and natural antibody-mediated agglutination together with total and differential leukocyte counts. Variation in immune activity during moult was strongly associated with calendar date and to a smaller degree with the growth stage of wing feathers. We suggest that the association with calendar date reflected temporal changes in the external environment. This environmental factor was further explored by comparing the immune activity of geese in the Arctic population with conspecifics in the temperate climate zone at comparable moult stages. In the Arctic environment, which has a lower expected disease load, geese exhibited significantly lower values of complement-mediated lysis, their blood contained fewer leukocytes, and levels of phagocytic cells and reactive leukocytes were relatively low. This suggests that lower baseline immune activity could be associated with lower disease pressure. We conclude that in our study species, external factors such as food availability and disease pressure have a greater effect on temporal variation of baseline immune activity than internal factors such as moult stage.

opencc-zeroDec 2014View details →

Data from: The importance of delineating networks by activity type in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Cedar Key, Florida

Network analysis has proved to be a valuable tool for studying the behavioural patterns of complex social animals. Often such studies either do not distinguish between different behavioural states of the organisms or simply focus attention on a single behavioural state to the exclusion of all others. In either of these approaches it is impossible to ascertain how the behavioural patterns of individuals depend on the type of activity they are engaged in. Here we report on a network-based analysis of the behavioural associations in a population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Cedar Key, Florida. We consider three distinct behavioural states—socializing, travelling and foraging—and analyse the association networks corresponding to each activity. Moreover, in constructing the different activity networks we do not simply record a spatial association between two individuals as being either present or absent, but rather quantify the degree of any association, thus allowing us to construct weighted networks describing each activity. The results of these weighted activity networks indicate that networks can reveal detailed patterns of bottlenose dolphins at the population level; dolphins socialize in large groups with preferential associations; travel in small groups with preferential associates; and spread out to forage in very small, weakly connected groups. There is some overlap in the socialize and travel networks but little overlap between the forage and other networks. This indicates that the social bonds maintained in other activities are less important as they forage on dispersed, solitary prey. The overall network, not sorted by activity, does not accurately represent any of these patterns.

opencc-zeroDec 2014View details →

Data from: Divergent effects of forest edges on host distribution and seed disperser activity influence mistletoe distribution and recruitment

1. Species interactions define functional diversity and community stability across ecosystems, and depend on the spatial distribution, the habitat requirements, and the sensitivity to disturbances of all interacting partners. Hence, assessing the effects of such anthropogenic disturbances on multi-species interactions may be essential to improve adaptation and mitigation measures for biodiversity conservation. 2. We determined the importance of edge effects on the interaction and distribution of three keystone species in South American temperate rainforests: the hemiparasitic mistletoe Tristerix corymbosus, its main host (the liana Campsidium valdivianum) and its only seed disperser (the marsupial Dromiciops gliroides). 3. The discordant impacts of forest edges on host (positive) and seed disperser (negative) affected mistletoe distribution at large spatial scales, owing to the combined effects of increased dispersal limitation and decreased host availability. More importantly, marsupial abundance had contrasting effects on mistletoe abundance at small and large spatial scales – suggesting a potential trade-off between local and long-distance dispersal. 4. We found the number of adult mistletoes per host increased with host size, which likely indicates that mistletoe colonization accumulated over the host's life-span. However, the number of juveniles found per host peaked at medium-sized hosts, increased with marsupial abundance and host availability and showed a negligible response to edges. 5. Synthesis: The lack of spatial congruence between host and seed disperser probably explains the scarcity of mistletoes in the study area, although the discordant drivers of juvenile and adult distributions suggest that there is a trade-off between recruitment patterns but also potential dispersal limitation at small scales. In essence, the interdependence among species linked by (mutualistic and antagonistic) interactions makes them more sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance, exacerbating its impact on the diversity and functioning of forest ecosystems.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Data from: Netted crop covers reduce honey bee foraging activity and colony strength in a mass flowering crop

The widespread use of protective covers in horticulture represents a novel landscape-level change, presenting challenges for crop pollination. Honey bees (Apis mellifera L) are pollinators of many crops, but their behaviour can be affected by conditions under covers. To determine how netting crop covers can affect honey bee foraging dynamics, colony health, and pollination services, we assessed the performance of 52 nucleus honey bee colonies in five covered and six uncovered kiwifruit orchards. Colony strength was estimated pre- and post- introduction, and the foraging of individual bees (including pollen-, nectar-, and naïve foragers) was monitored in a subset of the hives fitted with RFID readers. Simultaneously, we evaluated pollination effectiveness by measuring flower visitation rates and the number of seeds produced after single honey bee visits. Honey bee colonies under cover exhibited both an acute loss of foragers and changes in the behaviour of successful foragers. Under cover, bees were four times less likely to return after their first trip outside the hive. Consequently, the number of adult bees in hives declined at a faster rate in these orchards, with colonies losing on average 1,057 ± 274 of their bees in under two weeks. Bees that did forage under cover completed fewer trips provisioning their colony, failing to re-enter after a few short-duration trips. These effects are likely to have implications for colony health and productivity. We also found that bee density (bees/thousand flowers) and visitation rates to flowers were lower under cover, however we did not detect a resultant change in pollination. Our findings highlight the need for environment-specific management techniques for pollinators. Improving honey bee orientation under covers and increasing our understanding of the effects of covers on bee nutrition and brood rearing should be primary objectives for maintaining colonies and potentially improving pollination in these systems.

Data from: Activity and migratory flights of individual free-flying songbirds throughout the annual cycle: method and first case study

We describe a method and device (< 1.2 g) for recording, processing and storing data about activity and location of individuals of free-living songbirds throughout the annual cycle. Activity level was determined every five minutes from five 100 ms samples of accelerometer data with 5 s between the sampling events. Activity levels were stored on an hourly basis throughout the annual cycle, allowing periods of resting/sleep, continuous flight and intermediate activity (foraging, breeding) to be distinguished. Measurements from a light sensor were stored from preprogrammed key stationary periods during the year to provide control information about geographic location. Successful results, including annual actogram, were obtained for a red-backed shrike Lanius collurio carrying out its annual loop migration between northern Europe and southern Africa. The shrike completed its annual migration by performing > 66 (max. 73) nocturnal migratory flights (29 flights in autumn and > 37, max. 44, in spring) adding up to a total of > 434 (max. 495) flight hours. Migratory flights lasted on average 6.6 h with maximum 15.9 h. These flights were aggregated into eight travel episodes (periods of 4–11 nights when flights took place on the majority of nights). Daytime resting levels were much higher during the winter period compared to breeding and final part of spring migration. Daytime resting showed peaks during days between successive nocturnal flights across Sahara, continental Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, indicating that the bird was mostly sleeping between these long migratory flights. Annual activity and flight data for free-living songbirds will open up many new research possibilities. Main topics that can be addressed are e.g. migratory flight performance (total flight investment, numbers and characteristics of flights), timing of stationary periods, activity patterns (resting/sleep, activity level) in different phases of the annual cycle and variability in the annual activity patterns between and within individuals.

Data from: Stay tuned: active amplification tunes tree-cricket ears to track temperature-dependent song frequency

Tree cricket males produce tonal songs, used for mate attraction and male–male interactions. Active mechanics tunes hearing to conspecific song frequency. However, tree cricket song frequency increases with temperature, presenting a problem for tuned listeners. We show that the actively amplified frequency increases with temperature, thus shifting mechanical and neuronal auditory tuning to maintain a match with conspecific song frequency. Active auditory processes are known from several taxa, but their adaptive function has rarely been demonstrated. We show that tree crickets harness active processes to ensure that auditory tuning remains matched to conspecific song frequency, despite changing environmental conditions and signal characteristics. Adaptive tuning allows tree crickets to selectively detect potential mates or rivals over large distances and is likely to bestow a strong selective advantage by reducing mate-finding effort and facilitating intermale interactions.

opencc-zeroDec 2012View details →

Data from: Predicting the effect of urban noise on the active space of avian vocal signals

Urbanization changes the physical environment of non-human species, but also markedly changes their acoustic environment. Urban noise interferes with acoustic communication in a range of animals including birds, with potentially profound impacts on fitness. However, a mechanistic theory to predict which species of birds will be most affected by urban noise is lacking. We develop a mathematical model to predict the decrease in the active space of avian vocal signals when moving from quiet forest habitats to noisy urban habitats, and find that the magnitude of the decrease is largely a function of signal frequency. However, this relationship is not monotonic. A meta-regression of observed increases in the frequency of birdsong in urban noise supports the model's predictions for signals with frequencies between 1.5 and 4 kHz. Using the results of the meta-regression and the model described above, we show that the expected gain in active space following observed frequency shifts is up to 12%, and greatest for birds with signals at the lower end of this frequency range. Our generally-applicable model, along with three predictions regarding the behavioral and population-level responses of birds to urban noise, represents an important step towards a theory of acoustic communication in urban habitats.

Data from: The fabrication of the heterojunction catalyst BiVO4/P25 and its visible-light photocatalytic activities

A heterojunction catalyst BiVO4/P25 was successfully fabricated using a one-step hydrothermal method. The BiVO4/P25 samples exhibited better photocatalytic activities and absorption performances when compared with the pure BiVO4. The degradation rate of the methyl blue (MB) solution (5 mg/L) reached up to 85% in sixty minutes under visible-light illumination (λ > 420 nm). The nanocomposites were characterized using XPS, Raman spectroscopy, FT-IR, UV–visual diffuse reflectance spectroscopy, SEM and HR-TEM. A high-powered scanning electron microscope showed a polyhedron shape and a flower-like shape. The BiVO4/P25 nanocomposite was found to have a rougher surface, as well as a larger surface area, when compared with the pure BiVO4. This resulted in an improved photocatalytic activity, along with super absorption to a large extent.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Late Neolithic phytolith and charcoal records of human activities and vegetation change in Shijiahe culture, Tanjialing site, China

There is significant archaeological evidence marking the collapse of the Shijiahe culture in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China during the late Neolithic Period. However, the causes for this cultural collapse remain unclear. Our sedimentary records from a 3.3 m long profile and 76 phytolith and charcoal samples from the Tanjialing archaeological sites provide records of interactions between an ancient culture and vegetation change. During the early Shijiahe culture (c, 4850-4400 cal BP), the climate was warm and humid. Fire was intensively used to clear the vegetation. In the mid-period of the Shijiahe culture (c, 4400-4200 cal BP), the climate became slightly dry-cold and this was accompanied by decreasing water, leading to settlements. From c, 4200 cal BP, severe drought eroded the economic foundation of rice-cultivation. These conditions forced people to abandon the Shijiahe ancient city to find water in other regions, leading to the collapse of the Shijiahe culture.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Predicting forest insect flight activity: a Bayesian network approach

Daily flight activity patterns of forest insects are influenced by temporal and meteorological conditions. Temperature and time of day are frequently cited as key drivers of activity; however, complex interactions between multiple contributing factors have also been proposed. Here, we report individual Bayesian network models to assess the probability of flight activity of three exotic insects, Hylurgus ligniperda, Hylastes ater, and Arhopalus ferus in a managed plantation forest context. Models were built from 7,144 individual hours of insect sampling, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, photon flux density, and temporal data. Discretized meteorological and temporal variables were used to build naïve Bayes tree augmented networks. Calibration results suggested that the H. ater and A. ferus Bayesian network models had the best fit for low Type I and overall errors, and H. ligniperda had the best fit for low Type II errors. Maximum hourly temperature and time since sunrise had the largest influence on H. ligniperda flight activity predictions, whereas time of day and year had the greatest influence on H. ater and A. ferus activity. Type II model errors for the prediction of no flight activity is improved by increasing the model's predictive threshold. Improvements in model performance can be made by further sampling, increasing the sensitivity of the flight intercept traps, and replicating sampling in other regions. Predicting insect flight informs an assessment of the potential phytosanitary risks of wood exports. Quantifying this risk allows mitigation treatments to be targeted to prevent the spread of invasive species via international trade pathways.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Variation in harbour porpoise activity in response to seismic survey noise

Animals exposed to anthropogenic disturbance make trade-offs between perceived risk and the cost of leaving disturbed areas. Impact assessments tend to focus on overt behavioural responses leading to displacement, but trade-offs may also impact individual energy budgets through reduced foraging performance. Previous studies found no evidence for broad-scale displacement of harbour porpoises exposed to impulse noise from a 10 day two-dimensional seismic survey. Here, we used an array of passive acoustic loggers coupled with calibrated noise measurements to test whether the seismic survey influenced the activity patterns of porpoises remaining in the area. We showed that the probability of recording a buzz declined by 15% in the ensonified area and was positively related to distance from the source vessel. We also estimated received levels at the hydrophones and characterized the noise response curve. Our results demonstrate how environmental impact assessments can be developed to assess more subtle effects of noise disturbance on activity patterns and foraging efficiency.

opencc-zeroOct 2018View details →

Data from: Pollination on the dark side: acoustic monitoring reveals impacts of a total solar eclipse on flight behavior and activity schedule of foraging bees

The total solar eclipse of 21 August 2017 traversed ~5000 km from coast to coast of North America. In its 90-min span, sunlight dropped by three orders of magnitude and temperature by 10–15°C. To investigate impacts of these changes on bee (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) pollinators, we monitored their flights acoustically in natural habitats of Pacific Coast, Rocky Mountain, and Midwest regions. Temperature changes during the eclipse had little impact on bee activity. Most of the explained variation (R2) in buzzing rate was attributable to changes in light intensity. Bees ceased flying during complete darkness at totality, but flight activity was unaffected by dim light in partial phases before and after totality. Flights of bees during partial phases of the eclipse lasted longer than flights made under full sun, showing that behavioral plasticity matched bee flight properties to changes in light intensity during the eclipse. Efforts of citizen scientists, including hundreds of school children, contributed to the scope and educational impact of this study.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Data from: Human activities influence the occupancy probability of mammalian carnivores in the Brazilian Caatinga

The Caatinga is a semi-arid domain, characterized by reduced humidity and high rates of anthropogenic impact. In addition to the low availability of water, carnivorous mammals are still exposed to a number of threats related to landscape modifications. We used data from camera traps and occupancy models to investigate the habitat use by carnivores in an area of Caatinga in northeastern Brazil. We found a negative correlation between the presence of wind farms and the occupancy probability of the jaguar, and a positive relationship with the presence of the jaguarundi. Puma and jaguarundi occupied primarily sites near watercourses, whereas the occupancy of the crab-eating fox was correlated positively with the presence of poachers. The ocelot was detected more frequently at sites distant from human settlements, whereas the jaguar was detected more often in areas far from wind farms. We found a negative correlation between the distance of water and the detection of the ocelot. The detection of the crab-eating fox was influenced positively by the detection of cattle. In addition to the negative influence of some anthropic activities, our results indicate that water is a very important resource for species, and the few permanent sources of this resource available in the area must be preserved. The replication of our research in other systems, worldwide, that are experiencing similar pressures, should permit a systematic evaluation of the management and conservation strategies needed to rebuild or maintain populations, restore ecosystems, and support conservation policies in human-altered landscapes.

opencc-zeroNov 2019View details →

Data from: Fear of the dark? contrasting impacts of humans vs lynx on diel activity of roe deer across Europe

<ol> <li>Humans, as super predators, can have strong effects on wildlife behaviour, including profound modifications of diel activity patterns. Subsequent to the return of large carnivores to human-modified ecosystems, many prey species have adjusted their spatial behaviour to the contrasting landscapes of fear generated by both their natural predators and anthropogenic pressures. The effects of predation risk on temporal shifts in diel activity of prey, however, remain largely unexplored in human-dominated landscapes. </li> <li> We investigated the influence of the density of lynx (Lynx lynx), a nocturnal predator, on the diel activity patterns of their main prey, the roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), across a gradient of human disturbance and hunting at the European scale. </li> <li>Based on 11 million activity records from 431 individually GPS-monitored roe deer in 12 populations within the EURODEER network (http://eurodeer.org), we investigated how lynx predation risk in combination with both lethal and non-lethal human activities affected deer diurnality. </li> <li>We demonstrated marked plasticity in roe deer diel activity patterns in response to spatio-temporal variations in risk, mostly due to human activities. In particular, roe deer decreased their level of diurnality by a factor of 1.37 when the background level of general human disturbance was high. Hunting exacerbated this effect, as during the hunting season deer switched most of their activity to nighttime and, to a lesser extent, to dawn, although this pattern varied noticeably in relation to lynx density. Indeed, in the presence of lynx, their main natural predator, roe deer were relatively more diurnal. Overall, our results revealed a strong influence of human activities and the presence of lynx on diel shifts in roe deer activity. </li> <li>In the context of the recovery of large carnivores across Europe, we provide important insights about the effects of predators on the behavioural responses of their prey in human-dominated ecosystems. Modifications in the temporal partitioning of ungulate activity as a response to human activities may facilitate human-wildlife coexistence, but likely also have knock-on effects for predator-prey interactions, with cascading effects on ecosystem functioning. </li> </ol>

Data from: Spatial and seasonal influences on culturable endophytic mycobiota associated with different tissues of Eugenia jambolana Lam. and their antibacterial activity against MDR strains

Background: Present study focuses on diversity and distribution analysis of endophytic fungi associated with different tissues of Eugenia jambolana. The influence of season and geographical location on diversity and distribution of endophytic fungi has been analyzed. Antibacterial activity of isolated fungal species has also been investigated against MDR bacterial strains. Result: A total of 1896 endophytic fungal isolates were obtained from healthy, surface sterilized tissues of leaf, stem and petiole tissues during summer, monsoon and winter season. Out of 24 fungal species isolated, 20 species belong to class Ascomycetes, 2 to Basidiomycetes and 2 to Zygomycetes. Maximum species diversity was in rainy season whereas colonization frequency was in winter. All the diversity indices showed maximum species diversity at site 5 (Yamunanager), rainy among the seasons and leaf among the tissues studied. Aspergillus genus was most frequently isolated. Aspergillus niger and Alternaria alternata were most dominant species. Three way ANOVA results showed that effect of season was highly significant on species diversity in relation to sites and tissues. 60% endophytic fungal extracts showed significant antibacterial activity against one or more than one MDR bacterial strain. Conclusion: Different fungal species were recovered from different sites but the inter-site comparisons were not significant according to Jaccard similarity coefficient. Diversity of such fungal endophytes indicates that Eugenia jambolana plant acts as an ecosystem facilitating survival of many microbes with impressive antibacterial potential.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Data from: Assessing the effects of human activities on the foraging opportunities of migratory shorebirds in Austral high-latitude bays

Human presence at intertidal areas could impact coastal biodiversity, including migratory waterbird species and the ecosystem services they provide. Assessing this impact is therefore essential to develop management measures compatible with migratory processes and associated biodiversity. Here, we assess the effects of human presence on the foraging opportunities of Hudsonian godwits (Limosa haemastica, a trans-hemispheric migratory shorebird) during their non-breeding season on Chiloé Island, southern Chile. We compared bird density and time spent foraging in two similar bays with contrasting disturbance levels: human presence (mostly seaweed harvesters accompanied by dogs) was on average 0.9±0.4 people per 10 ha in the disturbed bay, whereas it was negligible (95% days absent) in the non-disturbed bay. Although overall abundances were similar between bays, godwit density was higher in the non-disturbed bay throughout the low tide period. Both days after the start of the non-breeding season and tidal height significantly affected godwit density, with different effects in either bay. Time spent foraging was significantly higher in the non-disturbed bay (86.5±1.1%) than in the disturbed one (81.3±1.4%). As expected, godwit density significantly decreased with the number of people and accompanying dogs in the disturbed bay. Our results indicate that even a low density of people and dogs can significantly reduce the foraging opportunities of shorebirds. These constraints, coupled with additional flushing costs, may negatively affect godwits' pre-migratory fattening. Hence, as a first step we suggest limiting human presence within bays on Chiloé to 1 person per 10 ha and banning the presence of accompanying dogs in sensitive conservation areas.

Data from: Active background choice facilitates crypsis in a tropical crab

Animals can evade predators in multiple ways, one of the most effective of which is to avoid detection in the first place. We know much about the evolution of color patterns that match the visual background to avoid detection (i.e., crypsis), yet we know surprisingly less about the specific behaviors that have co-evolved with these morphological traits to enhance or maintain crypsis. We here explore whether the match between body color and background in a seemingly well-camouflaged tropical shore crab is a result of active background choice. Taking advantage of a coastal area in the Solomon Islands with variable sand color and a population of the pallid ghost crab Ocypode pallidula with varying carapace color, we experimentally tested whether individuals actively choose specific substrate that best matches their color patterns. We found that individuals taken from extreme sand colors chose substrate that maintained crypsis, with relatively darker crabs typically choosing dark sand and lighter crabs choosing light sand. Crabs of intermediate color pattern, in contrast, showed no clear preference for dark or light sand. Our results suggest that potential prey can actively choose specific backgrounds to enhance and maintain crypsis, providing insights into how behavior interacts with morphological traits to avoid predator detection.

Data from: Statistical forecasting of current and future circum-Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness

Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum-Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance-blocked cross-validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106 km2. This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region-specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedbacks.