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Fig. 5 in The effects of short-term climate change on the range of species: the case of the expanding European dwarf mantis Ameles spallanzania in northern Italy (Mantodea: Amelidae)

Fig. 5 – Boxplots of suitability per decade referred to the historical range and northern Italy.

Fig. 6 in The effects of short-term climate change on the range of species: the case of the expanding European dwarf mantis Ameles spallanzania in northern Italy (Mantodea: Amelidae)

Fig. 6 – Extent of predicted presence areas derived from binary maps.

Fig. 2 in The effects of short-term climate change on the range of species: the case of the expanding European dwarf mantis Ameles spallanzania in northern Italy (Mantodea: Amelidae)

Fig. 2 – Land use in the occurrences of the current period.

Fig. 3 in The effects of short-term climate change on the range of species: the case of the expanding European dwarf mantis Ameles spallanzania in northern Italy (Mantodea: Amelidae)

Fig. 3 – Importance of climatic variables used to model the distribution of Ameles spallanzania.

opencc-zeroAug 2021View details →

Data from: Predicting range shifts of pikas (Mammalia, Ochotonidae) in China under scenarios incorporating land-use change, climate change, and dispersal limitations

Two of the most important forces affecting biodiversity are land-use change (LUC) and global climate change (GCC). Previous studies have modeled their impacts on species separately and together, but few have done so for multiple species with dispersal limitations incorporated into the models. We integrate species distribution models plus a dispersal model to predict LUC and GCC impacts on the ranges of five species of pikas in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region of China. Pikas are sensitive to land-use and climate change, and have limited dispersal abilities. The predicted impacts of LUC and GCC on pikas vary between species as well as between LUC and GCC projections. Incorporation of dispersal limitations appreciably restricts the amount of colonized habitat. For all five species, the amount of habitat abandoned or colonized when LUC and GCC are modeled together is less than the sum of LUC and GCC modeled separately. Three of the five species experience a net increase in occupied habitat by 2080 relative to their current ranges under all modeled projections. However, relative to a "Dispersal Only" baseline scenario that assumes no environmental change but continued range expansion into suitable, unoccupied habitat, all five species suffer a net loss of occupied habitat by 2080 under some or all projections. Predictions of future distributions of species based solely on LUC or GCC, as well as predictions assuming additive impacts, can be misleading. Inclusion of dispersal limitations in models markedly alters predicted future distributions of species. The use of a "Dispersal Only" scenario provides a different and perhaps more accurate way to gauge net impacts to species. Future work should consider incorporating all these parameters to better predict the impacts of LUC and GCC on biodiversity.

opencc-zeroNov 2022View details →

Data for: Elevational changes in insect herbivory on woody plants in six mountain ranges of temperate Eurasia: Sources of variation

Current theory predicts that the intensity of biotic interactions, and particularly herbivory, decreases with increasing latitude and elevation. However, recent studies have revealed substantial variation in both the latitudinal and elevational patterns of herbivory. This variation is often attributed to differences in study design and type of data collected by different researchers. Here, we used a standardised sampling protocol along elevational gradients in six mountain ranges, located at different latitudes within temperate Eurasia, to uncover the sources of variation in elevational patterns in insect herbivory on woody plant leaves. We discovered the considerable variation in elevational patterns among different mountain ranges; nevertheless, herbivory generally decreased with increasing elevation at both the community-wide and individual plant species levels. This decrease was mostly due to openly living defoliators, whereas no significant association was detected between herbivory and elevation among insects living within plant tissues (i.e. miners and gallers). The elevational decrease in herbivory was significant for deciduous plants but not for evergreen plants, and for low-stature plants but not for tall plants. The community-wide herbivory increased with increases in both specific leaf area and leaf size. The strength of the negative correlation between herbivory and elevation increased from lower to higher latitudes. We conclude that elevational gradients in herbivory demonstrate considerable variation, and that this variation is mostly associated with herbivore feeding habit, some plant traits and latitude of the mountain range.

opencc-zeroFeb 2023View details →

Distinct responses and range shifts of lizards populations across an elevational gradient under climate change

Ongoing climate change has profoundly affected global biodiversity, but its impacts on populations across elevations remain understudied. Using a mechanistic niche model incorporating species traits, we predicted ecophysiological responses (activity times, oxygen consumption and evaporative water loss) for lizard populations at high-elevation (< 3600 m asl) and extra-high-elevation (> 3600 m asl) under recent (1970–2000) and future (2081–2100) climates. Compared with their high-elevation counterparts, lizards from extra-high-elevations are predicted to experience a greater increase in activity time and oxygen consumption but a similar increase in evaporative water loss. By integrating these ecophysiological traits into a hybrid species distribution model (HSDM), we were able to make the following predictions under two warming scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). By 2081–2100, we predict that lizards at both high- and extra-high-elevations will shift upslope; lizards at extra-high-elevations will gain more and lose less habitat than will their high-elevation congeners. We therefore advocate the conservation of high-elevation species in the context of climate change, especially for those populations living close to their lower elevational range limits. In addition, by comparing the results from HSDM and traditional species distribution models, we highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation and local adaptation in physiological traits along elevational gradients when forecasting species' future distributions under climate change.

opencc-zeroDec 2022View details →

Data for: Implications of climate change for biocontrol efficacy across the northern range of the invasive plant Linaria dalmatica

The effect of insect biological control agents on invasive plant populations can vary spatially, and spatial variation in climate may drive regional variation in herbivory, and thus biocontrol efficacy. Within host plant populations, local plant abundance can also be affected by the spatial distribution of herbivores, but whether local patterns persist at larger scales is less well understood. We examined how infestation and damage of the stem-mining weevil Mecinus janthiniformis, a specialist biocontrol agent of the invasive plant Linaria dalmatica, varied with and among populations across the northern edge of the range in North America. We quantified weevil and invasive plant densities, as well as plant fecundity, stem diameter and height across sites spanning an area of ~39,000 km2 in British Columbia, Canada. We found that specialist weevils did not respond to host plant density within sites across the study region. Instead, weevil attack and load were most sensitive to among-site variability in climate, with stems at warmer sites have four times as many weevils compared to stems at cooler sites. Weevils also reduced plant fecundity more at warmer sites, when controlled for plant size (stem diameter) with larger effects of weevils in thicker stems, indicating that L. dalmatica suppression is highest in warmer locations where weevils are more abundant and environmental conditions more favorable. Our results suggest that, with climate change, the efficacy of biocontrol for L. dalmatica will improve across the northern edge of the range. We recommend that at cooler sites, where biocontrols are less prevalent and effects on plant fecundity are weaker, alternative management strategies are necessary at this time. Across invasive plant species more generally, future studies that establish the role of climate in variability in biocontrol efficacy long after introduction can improve management of invasive plants under climate change.

opencc-zeroJun 2023View details →

Gray wolf range in the western Great Lakes region under forecasted land use and climate change

Land use and climate alter species distributions worldwide, and detecting and understanding how species ranges shift can facilitate conservation planning and action. Following extirpation from most of the contiguous USA, gray wolves (Canis lupus) have partially recolonized former range in the western Great Lakes region, but it is unknown how land use and climate change may alter amounts of wolf habitat. Using wolf observation data collected during winters 2017–2020 in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, we created ensemble models to predict how land use and climate change may affect the amount of wolf habitat within these states. A projection model for the western Great Lakes region suggested three of four scenarios of land use and climate change will lead to 9–35% increases in wolf habitat, while a solely climate-based projection model supported our expectation that changes in climate, in isolation, will have limited effect on current wolf range. Our results support stable or increasing amounts of wolf habitat in the western Great Lakes region during the 21st century, suggesting limited or no adverse effects on the current distribution or further recolonization of wolves. Our findings can inform policy development regarding wolf conservation, and identify areas where recolonization is plausible, thus where promoting human-wolf co-existence is most pertinent.

opencc-zeroJul 2023View details →

Advancing and retreating fronts in a changing climate: a percolation model of range shifts

Climate change causes considerable shifts in the geographic distribution of species worldwide. Most data on range movements, however, derive from relatively short periods, within which it is difficult to distinguish directional shifts from random fluctuations. For detecting a shift, it is indispensable to delineate the range precisely. We propose a new method for delineation based on percolation theory. We suggest marking the boundary between the connected and fragmented occurrence of the species (the hull). We demonstrate the advantages of this connectivity-based method on simulated examples in which a metapopulation is advancing vs. retreating along an environmental gradient with different velocities. The simulations show that the hull is a fractal and has the same dimension (7/4) even when the front is advancing or retreating relatively fast, compared to the generation time. It is particularly robust in the retreating (trailing) edge. Accordingly, we propose marking the range edge at the mean position of the hull, the 'connectivity limit' of the species. Theoretical considerations suggest that the position of the connectivity limit is statistically more reliable than those limits that are delineated according to the outermost occurrences, and the connectivity-based method is broadly applicable to real-life data.

opencc-zeroJul 2023View details →

Data from: Regional variation in climate change alters the range-wide distribution of colour polymorphism in a wild bird

According to Gloger's rule animal colouration is expected to be darker in wetter and warmer climates. Such environmental clines are predicted to occur in colour polymorphic species and to be shaped by selection if colour morphs represent adaptations to different environments. We studied if the distribution of the colour polymorphic tawny owl (Strix aluco) morphs (a pheomelanic brown and a pale grey) across Europe follow the predictions of Gloger's rule and if there is a temporal change in the geographical patterns corresponding to regional variations in climate change. We used data on tawny owl museum skin specimen collections. First, we investigated long-term spatiotemporal variation in the probability of observing the colour morphs in different climate zones. Second, we studied if the probability of observing the colour morphs was associated with general climatic conditions. Third, we studied if weather fluctuations prior the finding year of an owl explains colour morph in each climate zone. The brown tawny owl morph was historically more common than the grey morph in every studied climate zone. Over time the brown morph has become rarer in the temperate and Mediterranean zone, whereas it has first become rarer but then again more common in the boreal zone. Based on general climatic conditions winter and summer temperature were positively and negatively associated with proportion of brown morph, respectively. Winter precipitation was negatively associated with proportion of brown morph. The effects of five-year means of weather on the probability to observe a brown morph differed between climate zones, indicating region dependent effect of climate change and weather on tawny owl colouration. To conclude, tawny owl colouration does not explicitly follow Gloger's rule, implying a time and space dependent complex system shaped by many factors. We provide novel insights in how the geographic distribution of pheomelanin-based colour polymorphism is changing.

opencc-zeroSep 2023View details →

Data from: Assessing the local adaptative changes associated with range expansion of the pink stem borer

Understanding the genetic basis of adaptive evolution following habitat expansion can have important implications for pest management. The pink stem borer (PSB), Sesamia inferens (Walker), is a destructive pest of rice that historically restricted to regions south of N34° latitude in China. However, with changes in global climate and farming practices, the distribution of this moth has progressively exceeded its traditional limit of 34° N and encompassed most regions in North China. However, the evolutionary processes and local adaptative changes of this species, are not yet fully understood. Here, we employed genome resequencing to genotype over 1 million of high‐quality SNPs and 20,000 SVs from 14 geographical populations across China. Three highly differentiated genetic groups were formed, corresponding to Northern, Southern China regions and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. The pairwise genetic distance between locations was highly correlated with geographic and environmental distance. Our estimates of evolutionary history indicate asymmetric migration with varying population sizes across three genetic groups. Selective sweep analyses highlight the strong selected insect cuticle GRP genes enhanced desiccation adaptability of the northern group and SETMAR gene associated with range expansion and local adaptation in Shandong population. Based on an integrated analysis of transcriptome and enGWAS, we also identified the CYP321A7 gene was involved in the PSB adaption to desiccation climates. Our findings revealed the phylogeography, demographic dynamics and evolutionary forces of PSB and identified potential candidate genes to explore the genetic adaptation to novel environments, which have significant implications for the development of effective strategies to control this pest.

opencc-zeroSep 2023View details →

Data for: Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range recession in Quebec since 1850

The contraction of species range is one of the most significant symptoms of biodiversity loss worldwide. While anthropogenic activities and habitat alteration are major threats for several species, climate change has not been overlooked either. For species at risk, differentiating the effects of human disturbances and climate change on past and current range transformations is an important step towards improved conservation strategies. We paired historical range maps with global atmospheric reanalyses from different sources (ERA5, CERA-20C, 20CRv3) to assess the potential effects of recent climate change on the observed northward contraction of the distribution range of boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Quebec (Canada) since 1850. We quantified these effects by highlighting the discrepancies between different southern limits of the caribou's range (used as references) observed in the past and reconstitutions obtained through the hindcasting of the climate conditions within which caribou are currently found. Hindcasted southern limits moved ~105 km north over time under all reanalysis datasets, a trend drastically different from the ~620 km reported for observed southern limits since 1850. The differences in latitudinal shift through time between the observed and hindcasted southern limits of distribution suggest that caribou range recession should have been only 17% of what has been observed since 1850 if recent climate change had been the only disturbance driver. This limited impact of climate reinforces the scientific consensus stating that caribou range recession in Quebec is mainly caused by anthropogenic drivers (i.e. logging, development of the road network, agriculture, urbanization) that have modified the structure and composition of the forest over the past 160 years, paving the way for habitat-mediated apparent competition and overharvesting. Our results also call for a better consideration of past distribution ranges in models aiming at projecting future distributions, especially for endangered species.

opencc-zeroSep 2023View details →

Effect of climate-change-induced increases on the range of rice-barley double cultivation on the intermediate egret

Intensification of cultivation methods and land use types, particularly in the face of climate change, has steadily weakened the habitat function of rice fields for waterbirds. Intermediate egrets (Ardea intermedia) are highly dependent on rice field habitats. Here, we examine the effect of a shift from rice monoculture to rice–barley double cultivation on the use of rice fields by intermediate egrets in South Korea. Rice-barley double cultivation has been increasing steadily in the southern region of South Korea due to changes in the rice growth period under climate change and maximization of economic benefits. We studied rice fields to determine the effect of the rice-barely double cultivation area on the abundance of intermediate egrets on the regional scale and their potential distribution pattern in response to double cultivation in relation to climate change using national-scale climate, altitude, and land cover data from May 1 to June 23, 2018. Compared to the irrigation practices used for rice monoculture, irrigation was stopped for some time in rice-barley double cultivation prior to planting, compromising the role of rice fields as a food ground for intermediate egrets. The potential abundance of intermediate egrets rapidly decreased by half when the double cultivation area increased to >40% of the total rice-field area, and was less than one individual if the area increased to >80%. Furthermore, according to climate change projections, by 2100, the double cultivation area would account for 75.74% of the predicted range of intermediate egret foraging ground. Synthesis and applications. Double cultivation areas should be <40% of existing rice fields to minimize the impact of the change in cultivation practices. This approach can also convert rice fields to other types of land use. Consequently, appropriate conservation and management measures may be developed to maintain suitable habitats despite rapidly changing cultivation practices resulting from climate change.