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121 results for “Scenario Modelling”
Storyline data used in the paper "The July 2019 European heatwave in a warmer climate: Storyline scenarios with a coupled model using spectral nudging"
<p>We provide the storyline data (in NetCDF format) used in the paper: “The July 2019 European heatwave in a warmer climate: Storyline scenarios with a coupled model using spectral nudging” published in Journal of Climate. The data is structured in four .tar.gz files (Preindustrial, Present, 2 and 4 K warmer climates) containing all variables used in this each climate. The data from the five ensemble members (E1 to E5) have been included separately in 3-months files.</p> <p>Atmospheric variables (Files are named as: {variable}_E{ensemble member}_{starting month}{year}.nc:</p> <ul> <li> <p>Latent heat flux (ahfl)</p> </li> <li> <p>Sensible heat flux (ahfs)</p> </li> <li> <p>Monthly Global Mean 2m Temperature (GMTT2mMonthly)</p> </li> <li> <p>Maximum 2m Temperature (t2max)</p> </li> <li> <p>Mean 2m Temperature (t2mean)</p> </li> <li> <p>Minimum 2m Temperature (t2max)</p> </li> <li> <p>Soil Wetness (ws)</p> </li> </ul> <p> Only for present climate:</p> <ul> <li> <p>850 hPa Temperature (T850)</p> </li> <li> <p>Total Cloud Cover (TCC)</p> </li> <li> <p>500 hPa Geopotential Height (Z500)</p> </li> </ul> <p>Five layers soil moisture (Only for present climate, Files are named as: From20172019in2017Climatessp370{ensemble member}_{year}{starting month}.01_jsbid.nc) </p> <p>Oceanic variables (from FESOM, Files are named as: {variable}_E{ensemble member}_{year}{starting month}01.nc:</p> <ul> <li> <p>Sea Ice Concentration (SIC)</p> </li> <li> <p>Sea Surface Temperature (SST)</p> </li> </ul> <p><strong>Please, note that FESOM uses an unstructured mesh.</strong></p>
SESMG scenario-files of the study "Model-based run-time and memory reduction for a mixed-use multi-energy system model with high spatial resolution"
<p>This dataset contains model scenario-files belonging to the publication "Model-based run-time and memory reduction for a mixed-use multi-energy system model with high spatial resolution".</p> <p>The individual scenarios can be executed and evaluated with the "Spreadsheet Energy System Model Generator" (<a href="https://github.com/chrklemm/SESMG">SESMG</a>) <a href="https://github.com/chrklemm/SESMG/tree/v0.4.0rc1">v0.4.0rc1</a></p> <p>The respective file names indicate to which model run mentioned in the main study the scenario-files belong. For model runs for which no sepparate scenario file exists, the scenario "reference.xlsx" with adjusted SESMG settings was used.</p> <p> </p>
Figure 3 in Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan
Figure 3. Location map of the study area.
Figure 2 in Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan
Figure 2. Schematic view of Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) model.
Figure 1 in Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan
Figure 1. High-resolution flow chart of the Random Forest (RF) model.
SeisSol dynamic rupture model setup of the Mw 7.5 Palu earthquake scenario published in Ulrich et al. (2019)
<p>All data required to run the dynamic rupture model of the Palu earthquake presented in:</p> <p>Ulrich, T., Vater, S., Madden, E. H., Behrens, J., van Dinther, Y., van Zelst, I., Fielding, E. J., Liang, C. & Gabriel, A. A. (2019). Coupled, Physics-based Modeling Reveals Earthquake Displacements are Critical to the 2018 Palu, Sulawesi Tsunami. doi: 10.31223/osf.io/3bwqa.</p> <p>A detailed readme file summarizing the data and data formats is also provided.</p>
Laboratory modeling of gap-leaping and intruding western boundary currents under different climate change scenarios
<p>Western boundary currents (WBCs), such as, the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream, are very intense currents flowing along the western boundaries of the oceans.<br>WBCs -and their respective extensions- have an important effect on climate because of their huge heat transports, the corresponding air–sea interactions and the role they play in sustaining the global conveyor belt. It is therefore very relevant to analyze WBC dynamics not only through observations and numerical modelling, but also by means of laboratory experiments; to this respect several rotating tank experiments have been performed in recent years.<br>The new laboratory experiments proposed here for the Hydralab+ 19GAPWEBS project are aimed at analyzing the interactions of a WBC with gaps located along the western coast. Examples of such processes include the Gulf Stream leaping from the Yucatan to Florida and the Kuroshio leaping, and partly penetrating, through the South and East China Seas and through the wider gap separating Taiwan to Japan. In the experiments the WBC is produced by a horizontally unsheared current flowing over a topographic beta slope; along the western lateral boundary a sequence of gaps of different widths simulate the openings present in the above mentioned locations.</p>
Code and data to reproduce the results of the paper: "Land Use Patterns and Climate Change---A Modeled Scenario of the Late Bronze Age in Southern Greece"
<p>Code and data to reproduce the results of Knitter et al. (2019): Land Use Patterns and Climate Change---A Modeled Scenario of the Late Bronze Age in Southern Greece. ERL.</p>
Eutrophication Risk Index (ERI) for the Cerrado and Caatinga: Modeling Scenarios for 2030 and 2040
<p><span>To assist in mapping Water Pollution Risk (WPR), we developed the Eutrophication Risk Index (ERI). This index is designed to assess and predict the vulnerability of water bodies to eutrophication, a process driven by excessive nutrient accumulation—particularly nitrogen and phosphorus—resulting in uncontrolled algal growth. The ERI helps identify at-risk areas and supports the development of more effective mitigation strategies aimed at preserving water quality and sustaining aquatic ecosystems.</span></p> <p><span>The proposed Eutrophication Risk Index (ERI) specifically accounts for human pressures on aquatic ecosystems. The ERI is determined by the phosphorus contribution to aquatic environments, derived from urban effluents and the excess nutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen) applied to the soil, measured in tons per hectare per year (Ton ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). To calculate the ERI for the Cerrado and Caatinga, we employed an equation with two main components: one concerning nutrient loss from agricultural systems and the other related to nutrient loss in wastewater.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Nutrient Loss in Agricultural Areas:</span></strong><span><br>Nutrient loss from agricultural areas was estimated using a spatially explicit soil nutrient balance model, incorporating secondary data sources and land use and land cover maps of the study area. For this analysis, we assumed that the nutrient balance in the soil is the difference between total inputs (IN) and total outputs (OUT), where IN includes chemical and organic fertilizers and OUT represents agricultural products. A positive nutrient balance, or surplus, indicates potential nutrient loss that could impact adjacent ecosystems. In our calculations, we also considered phosphorus saturation levels as a risk factor for phosphorus loss, alongside soil types.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Nutrient Loss in Wastewater:</span></strong><span><br>Nutrient loss in wastewater was based on data from the National Water and Sanitation Agency. This method considers the nutrient content in untreated wastewater and in effluents from wastewater treatment plants. We assumed a constant treatment efficiency of 30%, although this value may be optimistic given the primary effluent treatment processes in Brazil. For future assessments, local data on sewage treatment plants could be incorporated into the calculations if available during the project's execution.</span></p> <p><span>This dataset includes empirical data and model simulations developed under the NEXUS project (</span><a href="https://nexus.ccst.inpe.br/" target="_new"><span>https://nexus.ccst.inpe.br/</span></a><span>), which analyzed the interrelationship and challenges of agricultural production, energy, and water resource use in the Caatinga and Cerrado regions. Conducted between 2018 and 2024, the NEXUS project employed a participatory multiscale approach, combining qualitative and quantitative methods from natural and social sciences. Over its six-year duration, the project engaged more than one hundred stakeholders from various sectors, producing diagnostics and scenarios for sustainable futures in these biomes.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Scenarios Descriptions:</span></strong><span><br>The “Green Transition” scenario aligns with the dominant sustainability narrative in the business sector, focusing on efficiency gains and technological solutions (e.g., low-carbon agriculture, energy transition led by large corporations) to address environmental challenges. This scenario envisions agricultural production concentrated in highly productive areas, facilitating the restoration of natural vegetation and fostering an increasingly urban future.</span></p> <p><span>Conversely, the “Lives in Balance” scenario reflects the aspirations and struggles of social movements and traditional communities for recognition and the coexistence of diverse ways of life. It advocates transforming production systems, particularly through decentralized food and energy production, and emphasizes strengthening family farming and agroecological systems.</span></p> <p> </p> <p><strong><span>Acknowledgements</span></strong><span><br>The authors would like to thank the NEXUS Project, funded by the São Paulo Research Foundation – FAPESP (grants 2022/00917-0 and 2017/22269-2), and the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) for their support to Marcela Miranda through the National Postdoctoral Program (grants 88882.317530/2019-1 and 1732909/2017-2).</span></p>
Scenario-tree model to estimate the sensitivity of a surveillance system for classical scrapie
<p>The supplementary files to the EFSA's scientific report on the "Evaluation of the application of Slovenia to be recognised as having a negligible risk of classical scrapie" include:</p> <p>R code of the scenario-tree model to estimate the sensitivity of the surveillance system of sheep and goats for scrapie in Slovenia.</p> <p>Read-me file with information and instructions on how to rum the model </p> <p>Input data from Slovenia. Surveillance data to be analysed usgin the model.</p>
Species functional data and species distribution model projections for future land-use and fire management scenarios in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Gerês-Xurés
<p>The data includes nine functional traits and species distribution model projections for 102 species of vertebrates (amphibians, birds, and reptiles) in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Gerês-Xurés. The model projections are available for 2050 under six different land-use and fire management scenarios, namely two land-use scenarios of “business-as-usual” (BAU; ongoing trends of land abandonment) and “High Nature Value farmlands” (HNV), each under three fire management scenarios (low suppression - LS, current fire suppression - CS, and high fire suppression - HS). The species distribution projections for each scenario are presented as matrices of species presences/absences, obtained after reclassifying consensus predictions of species distribution models.</p>
A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections from Three Regional Climate Models for a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)
<p>1km regridded Greenland Ice Sheet SMB / Runoff / Melt projection until 2100. Projections from MAR, RACMO, HIRHAM forced by CESM2 (SSP5-8.5).</p>
OSeMOSYS model file and alternative data files (i.e. scenarios) of electricity trade in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) Region
<p>This set of files consists of an OSeMOSYS model file and five separate scenarios exploring electricity trade across the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Region. Two sensitivity scenarios are also available.</p>
Model data of tsunami and storm surge scenarios for Anegada, British Virgin Islands
Open the record for dataset details and reuse information.
Data from: Weighing homoplasy against alternative scenarios with the help of macroevolutionary modeling: a case study on limb bones of fossorial sciuromorph rodents
Homoplasy is a strong indicator of a phenotypic trait's adaptive significance when it can be linked to a similar function. We assessed homoplasy in functionally relevant scapular and femoral traits of Marmotini and Xerini, two sciuromorph rodent clades that independently acquired a fossorial lifestyle from an arboreal ancestor. We studied 125 species in the scapular dataset and 123 species in the femoral dataset. Pairwise evolutionary model comparison was used to evaluate whether homoplasy of trait optima is more likely than other plausible scenarios. The most likely trend of trait evolution among all traits was assessed via likelihood scoring of all considered models. The homoplasy hypothesis could never be confirmed as the single most likely model. Regarding likelihood scoring, scapular traits most frequently did not differ among Marmotini, Xerini, and arboreal species. For the majority of femoral traits, results indicate that Marmotini, but not Xerini, evolved away from the ancestral arboreal condition. We conclude on the basis of the scapular results that the forelimbs of fossorial and arboreal sciuromorphs share mostly similar functional demands, whereas the results on the femur indicate that the hind limb morphology is less constraint, perhaps depending on the specific fossorial habitat.
Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania
<p>Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth, and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.</p>
Data from: Model-based comparisons of phylogeographic scenarios resolve the intraspecific divergence of cactophilic Drosophila mojavensis
The cactophilic fly Drosophila mojavensis exhibits considerable intraspecific genetic structure across allopatric geographic regions and shows associations with different host cactus species across its range. The divergence between these populations has been studied for more than 60 years, yet their exact historical relationships have not been resolved. We analysed sequence data from 15 intronic X-linked loci across populations from Baja California, mainland Sonora-Arizona and Mojave Desert regions under an isolation-with-migration model to assess multiple scenarios of divergence. We also compared the results with a pre-existing sequence dataset of 8 autosomal loci. We derived a population tree with Baja California placed at its base and link their isolation to Pleistocene climatic oscillations. Our estimates suggest the Baja California population diverged from an ancestral Mojave Desert/mainland Sonora-Arizona group around 230-270 Kya, while the split between the Mojave Desert and mainland Sonora-Arizona populations occurred one glacial cycle later, 117-135 Kya years ago. Although we found these three populations to be effectively allopatric, model ranking could not rule out the possibility of a low-level of gene flow between two of them. Finally, the Mojave Desert population showed a small effective population size, consistent with a historical population bottleneck. We show that model-based inference from multiple loci can provide accurate information on the historical relationships of closely related groups allowing us to set into historical context a classic system of incipient ecological speciation.
Data from: Comparing the impact of future cropland expansion on global biodiversity and carbon storage across models and scenarios
<p>Land-use change is a direct driver of biodiversity and carbon storage loss. Projections of future land-use often include notable expansion of cropland areas in response to changes in climate and food demand, although there are large uncertainties in results between models and scenarios. This study examines these uncertainties by comparing three different socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-3) across three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM and PLUMv2). It assesses the impacts on biodiversity metrics and direct carbon loss from biomass and soil as a direct consequence of cropland expansion. Results show substantial variation between models and scenarios, with little overlap across all nine projections. Although SSP1 projects the least impact, there are still significant impacts projected. IMAGE and GLOBIOM project the greatest impact across carbon storage and biodiversity metrics due to both extent and location of cropland expansion. Furthermore, for all the biodiversity and carbon metrics used, there is a greater proportion of variance explained by model used. This demonstrates the importance of improving the accuracy of land-based models. Incorporating effects of land-use change in biodiversity impact assessments would also help better prioritise future protection of biodiverse and carbon-rich areas.</p>
Data from: Manipulating wetland hydroperiod to improve occupancy rates by an endangered amphibian: modelling management scenarios
Environmental managers have the difficult task of ensuring species persistence despite considerable uncertainty about their response to management. Spatially explicit population models provide one solution for simulating the dynamics of species and evaluating alternative management regimes. We used a Bayesian model to investigate wetland occupancy dynamics of the endangered growling grass frog Litoria raniformis at a wastewater treatment plant in southern Victoria, Australia. We coupled prior information from earlier research on this species with our survey data to quantify the effects of patch-scale variables and connectivity on the probabilities of occupancy, population extinction and colonization. Hydroperiods of 13 sites were experimentally enhanced to bolster occupancy rates by L. raniformis. We used simulations to assess the extent to which the enhanced hydroperiod regime improved the viability of the focal metapopulation. Occupancy rate increased by 15% among the enhanced sites in 2013–2014, whereas the rate of occupancy among unenhanced sites fell by 11% in that year. Forward simulation using the dynamic occupancy model suggested that the minimum occupancy rate across the metapopulation would be 18% higher if the enhanced hydroperiod regime was retained over the next 20 years. Mean posterior effects of patch-scale variables and connectivity on the occupancy dynamics of L. raniformis were consistent with the prior effect in all cases, with only small changes to the size of these effects. There was no clear effect of water chemistry on occupancy dynamics. Synthesis and applications. This work suggests that managing the hydroperiod of constructed wetlands can be an effective tool for the conservation of amphibians and demonstrates the utility of spatially explicit models for assessing metapopulation viability. We encourage managers to experimentally test the efficacy of manipulating patch-scale variables to improve occupancy rates within amphibian metapopulations.
A companion dataset to the paper Scenarios of future climate zone changes in Europe based on EURO-CORDEX regional model ensemble by Holtanová et al., to be submitted to Regional Environmental Change
<p>The content of the dataset is described in the metadata.txt file. </p>
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OpenNeuro
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