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opencc-zeroMar 2020View details →

Phenological responses to climate warming in temperate moths and butterflies: species traits predict future changes in voltinism

Changes in the number of generations per year (voltinism) have been among the most common phenological responses to climate warming in insects inhabiting seasonal environments. Nevertheless, numerous species have maintained univoltine (one generation per year) phenology with increasing temperatures, indicating the involvement of phylogenetic, ecological or some other constraints on phenological change. I examined geographic variation in voltinism in moths and butterflies of Northern Europe to identify species traits that might predispose species to univoltine/multivoltine phenology. I focused on species with a wide latitudinal distribution range (15 degrees as a minimum) which makes it unlikely that constraints imposed by season length could preclude multivoltinism across their distribution. Almost half of the 731 moth and butterfly species considered appear to have a single generation throughout their entire European range. A univoltine life-cycle across a wide latitudinal gradient suggests the presence of some constraint that makes additional generations either impossible or at least strongly disadvantageous, which will unlikely change with future climate warming. The scattered distribution of univoltine and multivoltine species across the lepidopteran phylogeny indicates that phylogenetic constraints are not strongly limiting changes in voltinism, and the trait is open to ecologically-driven adaptive evolution. My data show that species with one generation per year are generally larger than multivoltine species, but size forms no absolute constraint to having multiple generations per year. Obligately univoltine species dominate among egg and adult overwinterers (life-histories typical of so-called spring-feeders), whereas species with capacity for multiple generations prevail among pupal overwinterers. Multivoltinism is also infrequent among species feeding on grasses, particularly in endophagous grass-feeders. Larval diet breadth has no discernible effect on voltinism. Given the diverse ecological consequences of voltinism and its changes, accounting for the species' capacity for multivoltinism may be a key to address future challenges in biodiversity conservation and pest management.

opencc-zeroOct 2021View details →

Inter- and intraspecific selection in alien plants: how population growth, functional traits and climate responses change with residence time

Aim: When alien species are introduced to new ranges, climate or trait mismatches may initially constrain their population growth. However, inter- and intraspecific selection in the new environment should cause population growth rates to increase with residence time. Using a species-for-time approach, we test whether with increasing residence time (a) negative effects of climatic mismatches between the species' new and native range on population growth weaken, and (b) functional traits converge towards values that maximize population growth in the new range. Location: Germany. Time period: 12,000 years BP to present. Major taxa studied: 46 plant species of the Asteraceae family. Methods: We set up a common-garden mesocosm-experiment using annual plant species with a wide range of residence times (7-12,000 years) and followed their population dynamics over two years. We calculated climatic distance between the common garden and the species' native range. We also measured key functional traits of each species to analyse trait-demography relationships and test trait convergence with increasing residence time. Results: We found no support for the hypothesis that negative effects of climatic mismatches on population growth weaken with residence time. However, seed mass had a clear negative effect on population growth. As expected under such strong directional selection between or within species, increasing residence time led seed mass to converge to low values that increase population growth. Accordingly, population growth tended to increase with residence time. Main conclusions: We identify trait but not climatic mismatches as important constraints on population growth of invaders. Understanding how inter- and intraspecific selection shapes functional traits of alien species should improve the predictability of future invasions and help understanding limits to the population growth and spread of invaders already present. In a broader context, this study contributes to the conceptual integration of invasion biology with community, functional, and population ecology.

opencc-zeroDec 2021View details →

Adaptive potential of Coffea canephora from Uganda in response to climate change

Understanding vulnerabilities of plant populations to climate change could help preserve their biodiversity and reveal new elite parents for future breeding programs. To this end, landscape genomics is a useful approach for assessing putative adaptations to future climatic conditions, especially in long-lived species such as trees. We conducted a population genomics study of 207 Coffea canephora trees from seven forests along different climate gradients in Uganda. For this, we sequenced 323 candidate genes involved in key metabolic and defense pathways in coffee. Seventy-one SNPs were found to be significantly associated with bioclimatic variables, and were thereby considered as putatively adaptive loci. These SNPs were linked to key candidate genes, including transcription factors, like DREB-like and MYB family genes controlling plant responses to abiotic stresses, as well as other genes of organoleptic interest, like the DXMT gene involved in caffeine biosynthesis and a putative pest repellent. These climate-associated genetic markers were used to compute genetic offsets, predicting population responses to future climatic conditions based on local climate change forecasts. Using these measures of maladaptation to future conditions, substantial levels of genetic differentiation between present and future diversity were estimated for all populations and scenarios considered. The populations from the forests Zoka and Budongo, in the northernmost zone of Uganda, appeared to have the lowest genetic offsets under all predicted climate change patterns, while populations from Kalangala and Mabira, in the Lake Victoria region, exhibited the highest genetic offsets. The potential of these findings in terms of ex-situ conservation strategies are discussed.

opencc-zeroJun 2022View details →

Riding an escalator: upward range shift and patterns of genetic response to climate change in Acer caudatifolium

Aim Rapid global warming is threatening global biodiversity, and it will likely lead to varying degrees of local adaptation, particularly among plant species. Besides, rising temperatures frequently result in upslope distribution shifts towards climatic optima (i.e., the escalator effect) within a limited dispersal space, such as in insular environments. Here, we integrated ecological and genetic approaches to investigate how climate change will impact the genetic compositions and spatial distributions of Taiwan endemic maple Acer caudatifolium. Location Taiwan Methods We estimate the distribution range shifts of A. caudatifolium under climate change through species distribution modeling (SDM). We also use 368 genotyped samples to infer dispersal and genetic hotspots and quantify the contributions of geography/environments to genetic variations. We further assess the potential risk to A. caudatifolium under different climate warming scenarios. Results We detected three genetic diversity hotspots near mountainous glacial refugia and two dispersal hotspots in northern Taiwan and the central-to-southern Central Mountain Range. Overall range reductions and an altitudinal upslope-shift were observed in SDM. Using both linear and nonlinear regression approaches, we found that genetic variation was significantly associated with geographic distance and elevation-related climatic variables. The potential risk analysis revealed that the northernmost summit-dwelling populations were the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the major risk factor differed among populations: for central populations, temperature and precipitation jointly determined the potential risk, whereas precipitation was the only risk factor for northern and southern populations. Main conclusions This case study demonstrates how various climate factors, mountain height, and the availability of corridors jointly determine the demographic fates and sustainability of island maples in the face of climate change. This study also provided estimates of the implications of global warming, which can be conducive to developing appropriate conservation strategies.

opencc-zeroDec 2021View details →

Invasive rodent responses to experimental and natural hurricanes with implications for global climate change

Hurricanes cause dramatic changes to forests by opening the canopy and depositing debris onto the forest floor. How invasive rodent populations respond to hurricanes is not well understood, but shifts in rodent abundance and foraging may result from scarce fruit and seed resources that follow hurricanes. We conducted studies in a wet tropical forest in Puerto Rico to better understand how experimental (Canopy Trimming Experiment) and natural (Hurricane Maria) hurricane effects alter populations of invasive rodents (Rattus rattus [rats] and Mus musculus [mice]) and their foraging behaviors. To monitor rodent populations, we used tracking tunnels (inked and baited cards inside tunnels enabling identification of animal visitors' footprints) within experimental hurricane plots (arborist trimmed in 2014) and reference plots (closed canopy forest). To assess shifts in rodent foraging, we compared seed removal of two tree species (Guarea guidonia and Prestoea acuminata) between vertebrate-excluded and free-access treatments in the same experimental and reference plots, and did so 3 months before and 9 months after Hurricane Maria (2017). Trail cameras were used to identify animals responsible for seed removal. Rat incidences generated from tracking tunnel surveys indicated that rat populations were not significantly affected by experimental or natural hurricanes. Before Hurricane Maria there were no mice in the forest interior, yet mice were present in forest plots closest to the road after the hurricane, and their forest invasion coincided with increased grass cover resulting from open forest canopy. Seed removal of Guarea and Prestoea across all plots was rat dominated (75%-100% rat-removed) and was significantly less after than before Hurricane Maria. However, following Hurricane Maria, the experimental hurricane treatment plots of 2014 had 3.6 times greater seed removal by invasive rats than did the reference plots, which may have resulted from rats selecting post-hurricane forest patches with greater understory cover for foraging. Invasive rodents are resistant to hurricane disturbance in this forest. Predictions of increased hurricane frequency from expected climate change should result in forest with more frequent periods of grassy understories and mouse presence, as well as with heightened rat foraging for fruit and seed in pre-existing areas of disturbance.

opencc-zeroAug 2022View details →

Response of distribution patterns of two closely related species in Taxus genus to climate change since last inter-glacial

Climate change affects species' spatio-temporal distribution deeply. However, how climate affects the spatio-temporal distribution pattern of related species on the large scale remains largely unclear. Here, we selected two closely related species in the Taxus genus, Taxus chinensis and Taxus mairei, to explore their distribution pattern. Four environmental variables were employed to simulate the distribution patterns using the optimized Maxent model. The results showed that the highly suitable area of T. chinensis and T. mairei in the current period was 1.616 × 105 km2 and 3.093 × 105 km2, respectively. The distribution area of T. chinensis was smaller than that of T. mairei in different periods. Comparison of different periods shows that the distribution area of the two species was almost in stasis from LIG to the future periods. Temperature and precipitation were the main climate factors that determined the potential distribution of the two species. The centroids of T. chinensis and T. mairei were in Sichuan and Hunan provinces in current period, respectively. In the future, the centroid migration direction of the two species would shift towards the northeast. Our results revealed that the average elevation distribution of T. chinensis was higher than that of T. mairei. This study sheds new insights into the habitat preference and limiting environmental factors of the two related species and provides a valuable reference for the conservation of these two threatened species.

opencc-zeroOct 2022View details →

Plant secondary metabolic responses to global climate change: A meta-analysis in medicinal and aromatic plants

Plant secondary metabolites (SMs) play crucial roles in plant-environment interactions and contribute greatly to human health. Global climate changes are expected to dramatically affect plant secondary metabolism, yet a systematic understanding of such influences is still lacking. Here, we employed medicinal and aromatic plants (MAAPs) as model plant taxa and performed a meta-analysis from 360 publications using 1828 paired observations to assess the responses of different SMs levels and the accompanying plant traits to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2), elevated temperature (eT), elevated nitrogen deposition (eN), and decreased precipitation (dP). The overall results showed that phenolic and terpenoid levels generally respond positively to eCO2 but negatively to eN, while the total alkaloid concentration was increased remarkably by eN. By contrast, dP promotes the levels of all SMs, while eT exclusively exerts a positive influence on the levels of phenolic compounds. Further analysis highlighted the dependence of SM responses on different moderators such as plant functional types, climate change levels or exposure durations, mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation. Moreover, plant phenolic and terpenoid responses to climate changes could be attributed to the variations in C/N ratio and total soluble sugar levels, while the trade-off supposition contributed to SM responses to climate changes other than eCO2. Taken together, our results predicted the distinctive SM responses to diverse climate changes in MAAPs, and allowed us to define potential moderators responsible for these variations. Further, linking SM responses to C-N metabolism and growth-defence balance provided biological understandings in terms of plant secondary metabolic regulation.

opencc-by-4.0Sep 2017View details →

Hydrologic Response of the Columbia River System to Climate Change

Hydrologic projections for the Columbia River Basin and coastal drainages in the Pacific Northwest, United States. See http://www.hydro.washington.edu/CRCC/ for more information.

opencc-zeroMay 2024View details →

Data from: Data for habitat quality or quantity? Niche marginality across 21 plants and animals suggests differential responses between highland and lowland species to past climatic changes

Climatic changes can affect species distributions, population abundance, and evolution. Such organismal responses could be determined by the amount and quality of available habitats, which can vary independently. In this study, we assessed changes in habitat quantity and quality independently to generate explicit predictions of the species' responses to climatic changes between Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and present day. We built ecological niche models and distribution models for 21 reptile, mammal, and plant taxa from the Baja California peninsula inhabiting lowland or highland environments. Geological data suggests the CCSM global circulation model is a better representation of LGM climate for the Baja California peninsula. Significant niche divergence was detected for all clades within species, along with significant differences in the niche breadth and area of distribution between northern and southern clades. Most clades showed a reduction in distribution area towards LGM. Further, niche marginality (used as a measure of habitat quality) was higher during LGM for most clades, except for northern highland species. Our results suggest that changes in habitat quantity and quality can affect organismal response independently. This allows the prediction of genomic signatures associated with changes in effective population size and selection pressure that could be explicitly tested to support our models.

opencc-zeroJun 2024View details →

Data from: Leaf morphological traits show greater responses to changes in climate than leaf physiological traits and gas exchange variables

Adaptation to changing conditions is one of the strategies plants use to survive climate change. Here, we ask whether plants' leaf morphological and physiological traits/gas exchange variables have changed in response to recent, anthropogenic climate change. We grew seedlings from resurrected historic seeds from ex-situ seed banks and paired modern seeds in a common-garden experiment. Species pairs were collected from regions that had undergone differing levels of climate change using an emerging framework – Climate Contrast Resurrection Ecology, allowing us to hypothesise that regions with greater changes in climate (including temperature, precipitation, climate variability and climatic extremes) there would be greater trait responses in leaf morphology and physiology over time. Our found that in regions where there were greater changes in climate, there were greater changes in average leaf area, leaf margin complexity, leaf thickness and leaf intrinsic water use efficiency. Changes in leaf roundness, photosynthetic rate, stomatal density and the leaf economic strategy of our species were not correlated with changes in the climate. Our results show that leaves do have the ability to respond to changes in climate, however, there are greater inherited responses in morphological leaf traits than in physiological traits/variables, and greater responses to extreme measures of climate than gradual changes in climatic means. It is vital for accurate predictions of species' responses to impending climate change to ensure that future climate change ecology studies utilise knowledge about the difference in both leaf trait and gas exchange responses, and the climate variables that they respond to.

opencc-by-4.0Jun 2024View details →

Datasets used in Erosional response to Pleistocene climate changes in the Brazilian highlands

The data files correspond to the data tables of the ms "Erosional response to Pleistocene climate changes in the Brazilian highlands", submitted to JGR.

opencc-zeroJun 2024View details →

Data from: Responses of population structure and genomic diversity to climate change and fishing pressure in a pelagic fish

The responses of marine species to environmental changes and anthropogenic pressures (e.g. fishing) interact with ecological and evolutionary processes that are not well understood. Knowledge of changes in the distribution range and genetic diversity of species and their populations into the future is essential for the conservation and sustainable management of resources. Almaco jack (Seriola rivoliana) is a pelagic fish with high importance to fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific Ocean. In this study, we assessed contemporary genomic diversity and structure in loci that are putatively under selection (outlier loci) and determined their potential functions. Utilizing a combination of genotype-environment association, spatial distribution models, and demogenetic simulations, we modeled the effects of climate change (under three different RCP scenarios) and fishing pressure on the species' geographic distribution and genomic diversity and structure to 2050 and 2100. Our results show that most of the outlier loci identified were related to biological and metabolic processes that may be associated with temperature and salinity. Contemporary genomic structure showed three populations—two in the Eastern Pacific (Cabo San Lucas and Eastern Pacific) and one in the Central Pacific (Hawaii). Future projections suggest a loss of suitable habitat and potential range contractions for most scenarios, while fishing pressure decreased population connectivity. Our results suggest that future climate change scenarios and fishing pressure will affect the genomic structure and genotypic composition of S. rivoliana and lead to loss of genomic diversity in populations distributed in the eastern-central Pacific Ocean, which could have profound effects in fisheries that depend on this resource.

opencc-by-4.0Jul 2024View details →

Beryllium Isotopes in Maar Lake Sediments Response to Rapid Climate Change Since the Last Deglaciation

Data for "Beryllium Isotopes in Maar Lake Sediments Response to Rapid Climate Change Since the Last Deglaciation"

Fig. 6 in Phytoplankton Responses To Climate Change In The Large Lakes Of The Baltic Sea Basin

Fig. 6. Trend of changes in ice-free period (in days) on Lake Onega and Lake Peipsi for 1960- 2015.

Fig. 2 in Phytoplankton Responses To Climate Change In The Large Lakes Of The Baltic Sea Basin

Fig. 2. Phytoplankton biomass structure in the Lake Onega for August 1976-2010.

Fig. 1 in Phytoplankton Responses To Climate Change In The Large Lakes Of The Baltic Sea Basin

Fig. 1. Map of lakes with indication of sampling sites.

Fig. 4. Annual air temperature over Lake Onega catchment area for 1951–2014 in Phytoplankton Responses To Climate Change In The Large Lakes Of The Baltic Sea Basin

Fig. 4. Annual air temperature over Lake Onega catchment area for 1951–2014.

opencc-by-4.0Dec 2014View details →

Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise

Current and projected future potential boreal bird densities (4-km resolution) Citation for journal article associated with this dataset: -------------------- Stralberg, D., S. M. Matsuoka, A. Hamann, E. M. Bayne, P. Sólymos, F. K. A. Schmiegelow, X. Wang, S. G. Cumming, and S. J. Song. 2015. Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise. Ecological Applications 25:52-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-2289.1 Coordinate System ------------------ Projection: Lambert Conformal Conic False Easting: 0.00000000 False Northing: 0.00000000 Central Meridian: -95.00000000 Standard Parallel 1: 49.00000000 Standard Parallel 2: 77.00000000 Latitude Of Origin: 0.00000000 Linear Unit:  Meter Datum: D WGS 1984 Summary ------- The boreal forest biome provides a resource-rich environment for breeding birds, supporting high species diversity and bird numbers. These birds are likely to shift their distributions northward in response to rapid climate change over the next century. We used a comprehensive dataset of avian point-count surveys from across boreal Canada and Alaska, combined with interpolated climate data, to develop bioclimatic niche models of current avian distribution and density for 80 boreal-breeding songbird species. We then used a downscaling of projected future climates to assess the potential for these species to change their distribution and abundance in response to climate change. Note that projections represent potential densities based on climatic conditions, land use and topography. They do not account for physiographic barriers such as the northern extent of the Rocky Mountains that may prevent colonization of otherwise suitable habitat. Therefore current species’ distributions may be over-estimated in certain regions, particularly in Alaska. Boosted regression tree models of species distribution were averaged across two sets of covariates (climate-only and  climate + land use + topography), 11 bootstrap samples, and four global climate models. Mean projections and uncertainty estimates (coefficient of variation) are available for the current period (based on climate data from 1961-1990) and three future time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100). Climate data layers available at tinyurl.com/ClimateNA. Contact ------- Diana Stralberg, University of Alberta (stralber@ualberta.ca) Boreal Avian Modelling Project (borealbirds.ca) Project sponsors ---------------- Boreal Avian Modelling (BAM) Project Alberta Biodiversity Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project Avian data providers -------------- http://www.borealbirds.ca/index.php/data_partners USGS Breeding Bird Survey Breeding Bird Atlases of Canada BAM founding organisations and funders -------------------------------------- Environment Canada University of Alberta Canadian BEACONs Project Financial supporters -------------------- USFWS Neotropical Migratory Bird Conservation Act Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarships Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute Alberta Innovates Technology Futures Alberta Pacific Forest Industries Inc. Climate Change and Emissions Management Corporation Joint Canada-Alberta Implementation Plan for Oil Sands Monitoring Killam Trusts Landscape Conservation Cooperatives National Fish and Wildlife Foundation Université Laval Species code definitions ------------------------ Code    Common name (Scientific name) ALFL    Alder Flycatcher (Empidonax alnorum) &Dagger; AMCR    American Crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos) AMGO    American Goldfinch (Spinus tristis) AMPI    American Pipit (Anthus rubescens) &Dagger; AMRE    American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) AMRO    American Robin (Turdus migratorius) &Dagger; ATSP    American Tree Sparrow (Spizella arborea) &Dagger; BAWW    Black-and-white Warbler (Mniotilta varia) BBWA    Bay-breasted Warbler (Setophaga castanea) BCCH    Black-capped Chickadee (Poecile atricapillus) &Dagger; BHCO    Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) BHVI    Blue-headed Vireo (Vireo solitarius) BLBW    Blackburnian Warbler (Setophaga fusca) BLJA    Blue Jay (Cyanocitta cristata) BLPW    Blackpoll Warbler (Setophaga striata) &Dagger; BOCH    Boreal Chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus) &Dagger; BRBL    Brewer’s Blackbird (Euphagus cyanocephalus) BRCR    Brown Creeper (Certhia americana) &Dagger; BTNW    Black-throated Green Warbler (Setophaga virens) CAWA    Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis) CCSP    Clay-colored Sparrow (Spizella pallida) CEDW    Cedar Waxwing (Bombycilla cedrorum) CHSP    Chipping Sparrow (Spizella passerina) &Dagger; CMWA    Cape May Warbler (Setophaga tigrina) COGR    Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula) CONW    Connecticut Warbler (Oporornis agilis) CORA    Common Raven (Corvus corax) &Dagger; CORE    Common Redpoll (Acanthis flammea) &Dagger; COYE    Common Yellowthroat (Geothlypis trichas) CSWA    Chestnut-sided Warbler (Setophaga pensylvanica) DEJU    Dark-eyed Junco (Junco hyemalis) &Dagger; EAKI    Eastern Kingbird (Tyrannus tyrannus) EAPH    Eastern Phoebe (Sayornis phoebe) EVGR    Evening Grosbeak (Coccothraustes vespertinus) FOSP    Fox Sparrow (Passerella iliaca) &Dagger; GCKI    Golden-crowned Kinglet (Regulus satrapa) &Dagger; GCTH    Gray-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus) &Dagger; GRAJ    Gray Jay (Perisoreus canadensis) &Dagger; HETH    Hermit Thrush (Catharus guttatus) &Dagger; HOLA    Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris) &Dagger; LCSP    Le Conte's Sparrow (Ammodramus leconteii) LEFL    Least Flycatcher (Empidonax minimus) LISP    Lincoln's Sparrow (Melospiza lincolnii) &Dagger; MAWA    Magnolia Warbler (Setophaga magnolia) MOWA    Mourning Warbler (Geothlypis philadelphia) NAWA    Nashville Warbler (Oreothlypis ruficapilla) NOWA    Northern Waterthrush (Parkesia noveboracensis) &Dagger; OCWA    Orange-crowned Warbler (Oreothlypis celata) &Dagger; OSFL    Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi) &Dagger; OVEN    Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) PAWA    Palm Warbler (Setophaga palmarum) PHVI    Philadelphia Vireo (Vireo philadelphicus) PIGR    Pine Grosbeak (Pinicola enucleator) &Dagger; PISI    Pine Siskin (Spinus pinus) &Dagger; PUFI    Purple Finch (Carpodacus purpureus) RBGR    Rose-breasted Grosbeak (Pheucticus ludovicianus) RBNU    Red-breasted Nuthatch (Sitta canadensis) &Dagger; RCKI    Ruby-crowned Kinglet (Regulus calendula) &Dagger; REVI    Red-eyed Vireo (Vireo olivaceus) RUBL    Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) &Dagger; RWBL    Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) &Dagger; SAVS    Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis) &Dagger; SOSP    Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia) SWSP    Swamp Sparrow (Melospiza georgiana) SWTH    Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus) &Dagger; TEWA    Tennessee Warbler (Oreothlypis peregrina) TRES    Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) &Dagger; VATH    Varied Thrush (Ixoreus naevius) &Dagger; VESP    Vesper Sparrow (Pooecetes gramineus) WAVI    Warbling Vireo (Vireo gilvus) WCSP    White-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia leucophrys) &Dagger; WETA    Western Tanager (Piranga ludoviciana) WEWP    Western Wood-Pewee (Contopus sordidulus) &Dagger; WIWA    Wilson's Warbler (Cardellina pusilla) &Dagger; WIWR    Winter Wren (Troglodytes hiemalis) WTSP    White-throated Sparrow (Zonotrichia albicollis) WWCR    White-winged Crossbill (Loxia leucoptera) &Dagger; YBFL    Yellow-bellied Flycatcher (Empidonax flaviventris) YRWA    Yellow-rumped Warbler (Setophaga coronata) &Dagger; YWAR    Yellow Warbler (Setophaga petechia) &Dagger; &Dagger; symbols denote the 38 species currently breeding in the Alaskan boreal region.

opencc-zeroSep 2021View details →

Data from: Rapid microgeographic evolution in response to climate change

Environmental change is predicted to accelerate into the future and will exert strong selection pressure on biota. While many species may be fated to extinction, others may survive through their capacity to evolve rapidly at highly localized (i.e. microgeographic) scales. Yet, even as new examples have been discovered, the limits to such evolutionary responses have not often been evaluated. One of the first examples of microgeographic variation involved pond populations of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica). Although separated by just tens to hundreds of meters, these populations exhibited countergradient variation in intrinsic embryonic development rates when reared in a common garden. We repeated this experiment 17 years (approx. 6-9 generations) later and found that microgeographic variation persists in contemporary populations. Furthermore, we found that contemporary embryos have evolved to develop 14% to 19% faster than those in 2001. Structural equation models indicate that the predominant cause for this response is likely due to changes in climate over the intervening 17 years. Despite potential for rapid and fine-scale evolution, demographic declines in populations experiencing the greatest changes in climate and habitat imply a limit to the species' ability to mitigate extreme environmental change.