Find research datasets worth reusing

opencc-by-4.0Nov 2021View details →

Dataset for "Winter inverse lake stratification under historic and future climate change"

Summary results for Woolway et al., Winter inverse lake stratification under historic and future climate change. See README file for specific information on the variables provided.

opencc-zeroJan 2022View details →

Data from: Foliar herbivory creates subtle soil legacy effects that alter future herbivores via changes in plant community biomass allocation

Plants leave legacy effects in the soil they grow in, which can drive important vegetation processes, including productivity, community dynamics and species turnover. Plants at the same time also face continuous pressure posed by insect herbivores. Given the intimate interactions between plants and herbivores in ecosystems, plant identity and herbivory are likely to interactively shape soil legacies. However, the mechanisms that drive such legacy effects on future generations of plants and associated herbivores are little known. In a greenhouse study, we exposed ten common grasses and non-leguminous forbs individually to insect herbivory by two closely related noctuid caterpillars, Mamestra brassicae and Trichoplusia ni (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) or kept them free of herbivores. We then used the soil legacies created by these plant individuals to grow a plant community composed of all ten plant species in each soil, and exposed these plant communities to M. brassicae. We measured conditioning plant biomass, soil respiration and chemistry of the conditioned soils, as well as individual plant, plant community and herbivore biomass responses. At the end of the conditioning phase, soils with herbivore legacies had higher soil respiration, but only significantly so for M. brassicae. Herbivore legacies had minimal impacts on community productivity. However, path models reveal that herbivore-induced soil legacies affected responding herbivores through changes in plant community shoot: root ratios. Soil legacy effect patterns differed between functional groups. We found strong plant species and functional group-specific effects on soil respiration parameters, which in turn led to plant community shifts in grass: forb biomass ratios. Soil legacies were negative for the growth of plants of the same functional group. Synthesis: We show that insect herbivory, plant species and their functional groups, all incur soil microbial responses that lead to subtle (herbivory) or strong (plants and their functional group) effects in response plant communities and associated polyphagous herbivores. Hence, even though typically ignored, our study emphasizes that legacies of previous insect herbivory in the soil can influence current soil-plant-insect community interactions.

opencc-by-4.0Jun 2022View details →

Future Food Security in Africa under Climate Change

This excel file contains data tables (S2-S3) also found in the supplementary materials of the publication titled "Future Food Security in Africa under Climate Change".  The tables included here include a regional breakdown of African countries (Table S2), available calories for direct or indirect human consumption under diverse food loss and waste pathways (Table S3), and data on national caloric deficits under different scenarios (Table S4).

opencc-zeroJul 2022View details →

Data for: Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter-specific overlap under future climate change

Aim: To estimate spatiotemporal changes in habitat suitability and inter-specific overlap among three marine predators: Baltic grey seals (Halichoerus grypus grypus), harbour seals (Phoca vitulina), and harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) under contemporary and future conditions. Location: The southwestern region of the Baltic Sea, including the Danish Straits and the Kattegat, one of the fastest-warming semi-enclosed seas in the world. Methods: Location data (>200 tagged individuals) were analysed within the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to estimate changes in total area size and overlap of species-specific habitat suitability between 1997-2020 and 2091-2100. A total of eleven candidate predictor variables were considered representing anthropogenic activity, environmental, and climate sensitive oceanographic conditions in the area. Sea surface temperature and salinity data were taken from representative concentration pathways [RCPs] scenarios 6.0 and 8.5 to forecast potential climate change effects. Results: Model output suggests that habitat suitability of Baltic grey seals will decline drastically over space and time, largely driven by changes in sea surface salinity and a loss of currently available haulout sites following sea level rise in the future. A similar though weaker response was observed for harbour seals, while suitability of habitat for harbour porpoises was predicted to remain fairly stable over space and time. Inter-specific overlap in highly suitable habitat was predicted to increase slightly under RCP scenario 6.0 when compared to contemporary conditions but to largely disappear under RCP scenario 8.5. Main conclusions: Marine predators in the southwestern Baltic Sea and adjacent waters may respond differently to future climatic conditions, leading to divergent shifts in habitat suitability that are likely to decrease inter-specific overlap. We, therefore, conclude that climate change can lead to a marked redistribution of area use by marine predators in the region, which may influence local food-web dynamics and ecosystem functioning.

opencc-by-4.0Aug 2022View details →

Data from "Projections of leaf turgor loss point shifts under future climate change scenarios" (Tordoni et al. 2022 Global Change Biology)

The dataset includes four sheets representing the average turgor loss point (tlp) values at grid cell level (tlp_data) and the climatic variables and related climate change scenarios derived from the three models used in this study (HadGEM2-ES-RACMO22E, EC-EARTH_RACMO22E, EC-EARTH_CCLM4-8-17, respectively). The sheet "tlp_data" reports the cell ID (OGU) and the average tlp values for each taxonomic group considered in this study (gymnosperms, angiosperms, herbaceous and woody angiosperms).  Each of the other three sheets reports the cell ID (OGU), coordinates of the cell centroid (Long, Lat) and a set of six climatic variables: 95th percentiles of average temperature (BIO1.95, °C), temperature seasonality (BIO4, °C), annual consecutive frost days where temperature was ≤ 0 °C (CFD.ann, n° days), annual consecutive dry days where precipitation was < 1 mm (CDD.ann, n° days), 5th percentiles of cumulate annual precipitation (BIO12.5, mm), and precipitation seasonality (BIO15, %). For each model, "hist" refers to historical data encompassing the period 1970-2005, whereas "RCP2.6" and "RCP8.5" reports the average value of future projections for the period 2080-2100 in two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5).

opencc-by-4.0Apr 2024View details →

MDM data for "Wind driven ocean circulation changes can amplify future cooling of the North Atlantic warming hole" - submitted to Journal of Climate

Data files for MDM simulation used in Journal of Climate submission, "Wind driven ocean circulation changes can amplify future cooling of the North Atlantic warming hole"

opencc-zeroMay 2024View details →

Data for: Planning for a future of changes: prioritizing areas for conservation of small mammals in the Caatinga, Brazil

Human land use and climate change are two of the main threats affecting biodiversity, especially in arid/semiarid regions. The most effective way to protect the species in these ecosystems against these threats is through the delimitation of Protected Areas (PAs). However, such PAs need to be targeted cost-efficiently and consider future climate change. We identify priority areas to preserve small mammal species in the Caatinga in the present and in the future of climate change. We also evaluate how well these priority areas are protected by current PAs and identify ways forward to improve their protection. We use ecological niche models and Zonation spatial prioritisation software to identify the top 30% priority areas to preserve small mammal species under current climate and land use scenarios, besides considering optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of future climate change. We also evaluate how much these priority areas are covered by current PAs, identify ways to further improve their protection using hierarchical mask analysis, and evaluate species mean distribution coverage. The consequences of climate change will not hugely impact the distribution of priority areas for species conservation in the Caatinga. Around 13% of the identified priority areas overlap with current PAs, and planning the expansion of PAs considering integral protection areas increases the coverage of priority areas to more than 18% and captures more than 72% of species-suitable areas. Our prioritisations take into account climate change and provide low risk if conducted as a "no-regrets" conservation action. These priority areas are poorly supported by the Brazilian PA system, and need of further protection. One cost-effective option could be to upgrade some Sustainable Use PAs into more restrictive ones. Securing these priority areas helps preserve the long-term ecosystem functioning and to prevent biodiversity loss in a changing world.

Dataset for "Multi-model evidence of future tropical Atlantic rainfall change modulated by AMOC decline"

This dataset contains EC-Earth3 experiments used for the paper Multi-model evidence of future tropical Atlantic rainfall change modulated by AMOC decline (G. Cerato, K. Bellomo, R. D'Agostino, J. von Hardenberg, 2024) submitted to Journal of Climate. Data uploaded here allows the user to reproduce the figures related to the EC-Earth3 experiments from the journal article.

FIGURE 4 in Southern Africa's Great Escarpment as an amphitheater of climate-driven diversification and a buffer against future climate change in bats

FIGURE 4 (Continued)

FIGURE 2 in Southern Africa's Great Escarpment as an amphitheater of climate-driven diversification and a buffer against future climate change in bats

FIGURE 2 (Continued)

opencc-by-4.0Mar 2024View details →

AkiraSMori/BiodProd-ProtectArea: Analyses for "Biodiversity protection and its future benefits to society are intertwined with climate change action"

<div> <h2>Abstract</h2> <a href="https://github.com/AkiraSMori/BiodProd-ProtectArea/blob/main/README.md#abstract"></a></div> Biodiversity loss and climate change are incontrovertibly intertwined, yet the nuanced interplay between these global challenges is often understated in policy dialogues. Here, we illustrate that conservation through protected areas can effectively preserve primary productivity and carbon capture in forests worldwide, which directly depend on tree diversity. However, we also discover that failing to mitigate future climate change has the potential to diminish the effectiveness of terrestrial protected areas in conserving tree diversity-dependent forest productivity, especially in warmer biomes. This holds true even under the most optimized selection of protected areas designed to meet the global biodiversity target of 30% protection by 2030. Thus, climate change mitigation is critical for the success of many conservation actions aimed at achieving global targets; otherwise, existing and future efforts to conserve biodiversity and their benefits to society could be in vain. Addressing anthropogenic climate change will sustain the many biodiversity-derived ecosystem benefits to society.

opencc-by-4.0Oct 2016View details →

Figure 1 in The potential effects of future climate change on suitable habitat for the Taiwan partridge (Arborophila crudigularis): an ensemble-based forecasting method

Figure 1. Modeled range and presence records for Arborophila crudigularis.

The past and future changes of river sediment in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic

<a href="../api/records/12597593/draft/files/E3SM-tanzeli-lnd-elm-erosion-v3.zip/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">E3SM-tanzeli-lnd-elm-erosion-v3.zip</a>: Model code <a href="../api/records/12597593/draft/files/domain_lnd_Mid-Atlantic_MPAS_c220107.nc/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">domain_lnd_Mid-Atlantic_MPAS_c220107.nc</a>: Mid-Atlantic mesh grid <a href="../api/records/12597593/draft/files/ancillary.pk/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ancillary.pk</a>: ancillary variables including "area" (grid cell area: m^2), "areaTotal" (upstream drainage area: m^2), "DSIG" (downstream index), "GINDEX" (grid cell index), "outletG" (river basin index), and "rlen" (river channel length: m). <a href="../api/records/12597593/draft/files/Baseline.pk/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Baseline.pk</a>: Baseline simulation: "Q": discharge (m^3/s), "Qs": sediment discharge (kg/s) <a href="../api/records/12597593/draft/files/CLIM_noLU_noDAM.pk/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">CLIM_noLU_noDAM.pk</a>: CLIM_noLU_noDAM simulation <a href="../api/records/12597593/draft/files/noCLIM_LU_noDAM.pk/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">noCLIM_LU_noDAM.pk</a>: noCLIM_LU_noDAM simulation <a href="../api/records/12597593/draft/files/noCLIM_noLU_DAM.pk/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">noCLIM_noLU_DAM.pk</a>: noCLIM_noLU_DAM simulation <a href="../api/records/12597593/draft/files/SSP585_UKESM1-0-LL.pk/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">SSP585_UKESM1-0-LL.pk</a>: SSP585_UKESM1-0-LL simulation <a href="../api/records/12597593/draft/files/SSP585_MPI-ESM1-2-HR.pk/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">SSP585_MPI-ESM1-2-HR.pk</a>: SSP585_MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulation <a href="../api/records/12597593/draft/files/SSP585_GFDL-ESM4.pk/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">SSP585_GFDL-ESM4.pk</a>: SSP585_GFDL-ESM4 simulation <a href="../api/records/12597593/draft/files/SSP585_IPSL-CM6A-LR.pk/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">SSP585_IPSL-CM6A-LR.pk</a>: SSP585_IPSL-CM6A-LR simulation <a href="../api/records/12597593/draft/files/draw_ssc_channel_vari4pub.py/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">draw_ssc_channel_vari4pub.py</a>: Python script to plot longitudinal SSC variations <a href="../api/records/12597593/draft/files/cmp_qs_icom_future4pub.py/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cmp_qs_icom_future4pub.py</a>: Python script to plot future sediment discharge change

opencc-by-4.0Sep 2024View details →

Data output from Projecting future climate change impacts on the distribution of pelagic squid in the Southern Ocean

Data output from Projecting future climate change impacts on the distribution of pelagic squid in the Southern Ocean: Rasters, R models and scripts

opencc-by-4.0Oct 2024View details →

Small orbital forcing changes alter the ocean circulation of Earth's next future supercontinent: Simulations

This dataset contains the simulations from the manuscript "Small orbital forcing changes alter the ocean circulation of Earth's next future supercontinent". From the methods section of the manuscript: The simulations are carried out using the fully-coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model ROCKE-3D version Planet 1.0 (R3D1) (Way et al., 2017). The model is run at a horizontal resolution of 4 x 5 degrees and simulations were integrated for 5000 and 7000 years for PD and future forcing, respectively, to ensure they were in equilibrium. The topography and bathymetry is the one used by Way et al. (2021) in their simulation 2 (Aurica). This includes a fully dynamic ocean 4252 m deep and land elevations close to present day mean topography and elevations between 1 and 858 m. Due to high uncertainties in its future evolution, atmospheric composition is kept constant at year 1850 levels, following the setup in Way et al. (2021): the atmosphere is dominated by nitrogen with 21% oxygen, 285 ppmv CO2, 0.3 ppmv N2O and 0.79 ppmv CH4, and no aerosols or ozone are included. Two simulations are presented: PD_Aurica which which has present-day day-length (24 hrs) and insolation (1361 Wm-2) and F_Aurica where we apply orbital forcing consistent with 250 Ma into the future - day length is increased by 0.5 hrs and insolation is increased by 2.6 Wm-2 (see Way et al., 2021).  PD_Aurica corresponds to the output files with the following names: ANN4500-4999.*F_AURICA_RAND_PD_03.nc F_Aurica corresponds to the output files with the following names: ANN6500-6999.*F_AURICA_RAND_PD_01.nc The diagnostic files including AGC, AIJ, AIJK and AIJL in the filename contain atmospheric diagnostics and outputs, whereas those that include OIJ, OIJL, OJL and OTJ contain ocean diagnostics and outputs. <a href="https://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/author/533569006/35432">Way M. J.</a>, <a href="https://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/author/830545035/35432">I. Aleinov</a>, D. S. Amundsen, <a title="See all authors for this publication">et al.</a> 2017. "Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets." The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series 231 (1): 12 [<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3847/1538-4365/aa7a06">10.3847/1538-4365/aa7a06</a>] <a href="https://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/author/533569006/42520">Way M. J.</a>, H. S. Davies, J. C. Duarte, <a title="See all authors for this publication">et al.</a> 2021. "The Climates of Earth’s Next Supercontinent: Effects of Tectonics, Rotation Rate, and Insolation." Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 22 (8): [<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021gc009983">10.1029/2021gc009983</a>]

opencc-zeroSep 2021View details →

Data from: Current distributions and future climate‐driven changes in diatoms, insects and fish in U.S. streams

Aim Biodiversity on Earth is threatened by climate change. Despite the vulnerability of freshwater habitats to human impacts, most climate change projections have focused on terrestrial systems. Here, we examined how the current distributions and biodiversity of stream taxa might change under mitigated, stabilizing and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Location Conterminous USA. Time period Present day to 2070. Major taxa studied Stream diatoms, insects and fish. Methods We developed species distribution models for 336 freshwater taxa from 1,227 distinct stream localities using water chemistry, watershed and climatic variables. Models based only on climate were used to project changes in the distributions and biodiversity of cold‐ versus warm‐water taxa under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) ranging from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m2. Results In all three organismal groups, climate emerged as the strongest predictor of species distributions, providing comparable explanatory power to water chemistry and watershed variables combined. The RCP‐based projections suggested a widespread expansion of warm‐water taxa, outpacing the decline of cold‐water taxa. Consequently, overall species richness would increase, but beta diversity would decrease drastically with the severity of climate change. A closer look at individual taxa and functional guilds revealed that vulnerable cold‐water taxa included: (a) diatom guilds forming the base and bulk of the biofilm; (b) environmentally sensitive insects, characteristic of unimpacted streams; and (c) ecologically and recreationally important salmonids, which were forecast to diminish dramatically in source habitats. Warm‐water fish projected to increase their distributions include bait bucket release minnows and dominant predators. Main conclusions Our results suggest potentially devastating impacts of climate change on stream ecosystems, with the restructuring of diatom, insect and fish communities, diminished distributions of functionally important taxa and widespread expansion of warm‐water taxa, giving rise to biotic homogenization. Given that the magnitude of these biotic shifts depends on the severity of climate change, appropriate current policy decisions are necessary to preserve freshwater ecosystems.

opencc-zeroOct 2022View details →

Climate change threatens the future of rainforest ringtail possums by 2050

Aim The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather escalate the pressure of global warming on biodiversity. Globally, synergistic effects of multiple components of climate change have driven local extinctions and community collapses, raising concern about the irreversible deterioration of ecosystems. Here, we disentangle the pressure of different climatic components on the population dynamics of a tropical community of marsupials in a World Heritage Area. Location The Australian Wet Tropics. Method We analyse the potential influence of climate change in different dimensions, quantifying the effect of spatial differences in temperature exposure and observed increases in temperature and frequency of extreme heatwaves. Results We find a strong negative effect of climate change on population dynamics, particularly extreme heatwaves, resulting in a rapid and severe decline in ringtails' population size in the last three decades. Main conclusions Forecasted increases in temperature and heatwaves threaten the collapse of the community by 2050, with ringtail possums falling below population viability thresholds within two decades.

opencc-zeroNov 2022View details →

Using landscape genomics to delineate future adaptive potential for climate change in the Yosemite Toad (Anaxyrus canorus)

An essential goal in conservation biology is delineating population units that maximize the probability of species persisting into the future and adapting to future environmental change. However, future-facing conservation concerns are often addressed using retrospective patterns that could be irrelevant. We recommend a novel landscape genomics framework for delineating future "Geminate Evolutionary Units" (GEUs) in a focal species: (1) identify loci under environmental selection, (2) model and map adaptive conservation units that may spawn future lineages, (3) forecast relative selection pressures on each future lineage, and (4) estimate their fitness and likelihood of persistence using geo-genomic simulations. Using this process, we delineated conservation units for the Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus canorus), a U.S. federally threatened species that is highly vulnerable to climate change. We used a genome-wide dataset, redundancy analysis, and Bayesian association methods to identify 24 candidate loci responding to climatic selection (R2 ranging from 0.09–0.52), after controlling for demographic structure. Candidate loci included genes such as MAP3K5, involved in cellular response to environmental change. We then forecasted future genomic response to climate change using the multivariate machine learning algorithm Gradient Forests. Based on all available evidence, we found three GEUs in Yosemite National Park, reflecting contrasting adaptive optima: YF-North (high winter snowpack with moderate summer rainfall), YF-East (low to moderate snowpack with high summer rainfall), and YF-Low-Elevation (low snowpack and rainfall). Simulations under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario suggest that the species will decline by 29% over 90 years, but the highly diverse YF-East lineage will be least impacted for two reasons: (1) geographically it will be sheltered from the largest climatic selection pressures, (2) its standing genetic diversity will promote a faster adaptive response. Our approach provides a comprehensive strategy for protecting imperiled non-model species with genomic data alone and has wide applicability to other declining species.

opencc-zeroDec 2022View details →

Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016–2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, eleven times higher than the effects of climate change across all services but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite – they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.