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opencc-zeroNov 2019View details →

FIG. 1 in A small elevational gradient shows negative bottom-to-top bryophyte richness in a seasonally dry forest in Brazil

FIG. 1. — Results of the clustering with weighted average between Caatinga areas (including rocky outcrops) based on the Sørensen similarity index showing that the bryophyte flora of Catimbau NP is singular: dotted arm indicates Rocky outcrop in Bahia state; brackets in light gray indicates areas in Paraíba state and the bold arms indicate the areas in Pernambuco state; site P29, highlighted in blue shows the isolation of Catimbau NP. Bahia state is approximately 370 km from Pernambuco state and 930 km from Paraíba, in a straight line. Coefficient of Cofenetic Correlation (CCC) = 0.80. Own illustration: Fabronia ciliaris (Brid.) Brid.

opencc-zeroMay 2023View details →

Code, scripts and data for: Seasonality and competition select for variable germination behavior in perennials

The occurrence of within-population variation in germination behavior and associated traits such as seed size has long fascinated evolutionary ecologists. In annuals, unpredictable environments are known to select for bet-hedging strategies causing variation in dormancy duration and germination strategies. Variation in germination timing and associated traits is also commonly observed in perennials and often tracks gradients of environmental predictability. Although bet-hedging is thought to occur less frequently in long-lived organisms, these observations suggest a role of bet-hedging strategies in perennials occupying unpredictable environments. We use complementary analytical and evolutionary simulation models of within-individual variation in germination behavior in seasonal environments to show how bet-hedging interacts with fluctuating selection, life-history traits, and competitive asymmetries among germination strategies. We reveal substantial scope for bet-hedging to produce variation in germination behavior in long-lived plants, when "false starts" to the growing season results in either competitive advantages or increased mortality risk for alternative germination strategies. Additionally, we find that lowering adult survival may, in contrast to classic bet-hedging theory, result in less spreading of germination by decreasing density-dependent competition. These models extend insights from bet-hedging theory to perennials and explore how competitive communities may be affected by ongoing changes in climate and seasonality patterns.

opencc-by-4.0May 2023View details →

Data from: Comparing winter versus summer deepwater dissolved oxygen depletion with the potential for cross-seasonal forecasting of deepwater oxygen availability

Depletion of deepwater dissolved oxygen (DO) in lakes has become increasingly prevalent and severe due to many external stressors, potentially threatening human-derived ecosystem services ranging from drinking water quality to fisheries. Using year-round, high-frequency DO data from 12 dimictic lakes, we compared three measures of deepwater DO depletion during winter and summer:  DO depletion rate, DO minimum, and hypoxia duration. Hypoxia (DO < 3 mg L-1) occurred in over half of the lakes and persisted an average of 83% longer in summer than in winter. While we found no difference in DO depletion rates between winter versus summer, these rates were strongly related to lake morphology in winter but water transparency and temperature in summer. Winter hypoxia duration was negatively related to summer hypoxia duration, suggesting potential utility for forecasting DO depletion in the subsequent summer. Spring mixing efficacy was strongly related to winter minimum DO saturation and hypoxia duration, and was also a strong predictor of summer minimum DO saturation and hypoxia duration. Hence, these cross-seasonal patterns suggest deepwater DO metrics can be used to forecast DO availability in subsequent seasons, modified by the relative importance of morphology, water transparency, and temperature. These findings can allow for improved, early management when DO is predicted to be critically low based on previous seasons’ DO measurements, which can work to minimize the negative consequences for water quality and fisheries health associated with severe DO depletion.

opencc-zeroNov 2019View details →

FIG. 4 in A small elevational gradient shows negative bottom-to-top bryophyte richness in a seasonally dry forest in Brazil

FIG. 4. — Venn diagram showing the low percentage of similarity between the belts levels based on the Sørensen-Dice index, total number of species per belt, and the amount of species shared between each belt.

opencc-zeroNov 2019View details →

FIG. 2 in A small elevational gradient shows negative bottom-to-top bryophyte richness in a seasonally dry forest in Brazil

FIG. 2. — Elevational distribution and representativeness of bryophyte families in the Catimbau National Park. The width of the bars denotes the number of species per family. The elevation is measured in meters.

opencc-zeroMay 2023View details →

Bird breeding season linked to sunshine hours in a marginally seasonal equatorial climate

The timing of reproduction is a fundamental aspect of life history, yet the breeding seasons of most birds of the world, i.e., those in the tropics, remain poorly understood. Here we use more than 3,000 mist-netting records and 300,000 citizen scientist observations collected over six years to characterize the nesting, incubation, fledging, and juvenile stages of the breeding season on Singapore Island in Southeast Asia's equatorial rainforest zone. The breeding season was compared with climate variables and food availability to identify possible proximate and ultimate causes. Breeding was seasonal and began just after the rainiest months of the year, when insect abundance was highest and when masting events were most likely to occur. While true photoperiod varied little throughout the year, overcast weather in November–December and sunnier weather in February–March caused average daily sunshine to increase by several hours at the onset of the breeding season in all six years. Our data suggest that subjective daily sunshine hours, which correlate with photoperiod at higher latitudes but not in the tropics, may be the actual proximate trigger of breeding activity in most of the world's birds.

opencc-by-4.0May 2023View details →

Seasonal forecasts of ocean heat content in ECMWF-SEAS5 and CMCC-SPS3

Seasonal forecasts of ocean heat content in the upper 300m from two Copernicus Climate Change Service Systems: ECMWF SEAS5 and CMCC SPS3. Data was used for the following study: McAdam, R., Masina, S., Balmaseda, M. et al. Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems. Clim Dyn 58, 3335–3350 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06101-3

opencc-zeroMay 2023View details →

Data from: Ageing of juvenile coral grouper (Plectropomus maculatus) reveals year-round spawning and recruitment: Implications for seasonal closures

Temporal patterns in spawning and juvenile recruitment can have major effects on population size and the demographic structure of coral reef fishes. For harvested species, these patterns are crucial in determining stock size and optimising management strategies such as seasonal closures. For the commercially important coral grouper (Plectropomus spp.) on the Great Barrier Reef, histological studies indicate peak spawning around the summer new moons. Here we examine the timing of spawning activity for P. maculatus in the southern Great Barrier Reef by deriving age in days for 761 juvenile fish collected between 2007 and 2022, and back-calculating settlement and spawning dates. Age-length relationships were used to estimate spawning and settlement times for a further 1,002 juveniles collected over this period. Unexpectedly, our findings indicate year-round spawning activity generates distinct recruitment cohorts that span several weeks to months. Peak spawning varied between years with no clear association with environmental cues, and little to no alignment with existing seasonal fisheries closures around the new moon. Given the variability and uncertainty in peak spawning times, this fishery may benefit from additional and longer seasonal closures, or alternative fisheries management strategies, to maximise the recruitment contribution from periods of greatest reproductive success.

opencc-zeroJun 2023View details →

Evolution of butterfly seasonal plasticity driven by climate change varies across life stages

Photoperiod is a common cue for seasonal plasticity and phenology, but climate change can create cue-environment mismatches for organisms that rely on it. Evolution could potentially correct these mismatches, but phenology often depends on multiple plastic decisions made during different life stages and seasons that may evolve separately. For example, Pararge aegeria (Speckled wood butterfly) has photoperiod-cued seasonal life history plasticity in two different life stages: larval development time and pupal diapause. We tested for climate-change-associated evolution of this plasticity by replicating common garden experiments conducted on two Swedish populations 30 years ago. We found evidence for evolutionary change in the contemporary larval reaction norm—although these changes differed between populations—but no evidence for evolution of the pupal reaction norm. This variation in evolution across life stages demonstrates the need to consider how climate change affects the whole life cycle to understand its impacts on phenology.

opencc-zeroJun 2023View details →

Data from: Additive genetic and environmental variation interact to shape the dynamics of seasonal migration in a wild bird population

Dissecting joint micro-evolutionary and plastic responses to environmental perturbations requires quantifying interacting components of genetic and environmental variation underlying expression of key traits. This ambition is particularly challenging for phenotypically discrete traits where multiscale decompositions are required to reveal non-linear transformations of underlying genetic and environmental variation into phenotypic variation, and when effects must be estimated from incomplete field observations. We devised a joint multistate capture-recapture and quantitative genetic animal model and fitted this model to full-annual-cycle resighting data from partially-migratory European shags (Gulosus aristotelis) to estimate key components of genetic, environmental and phenotypic variance in the ecologically critical discrete trait of seasonal migration versus residence. We demonstrate non-negligible additive genetic variance in latent liability for migration, resulting in detectable micro-evolutionary responses following two episodes of strong survival selection. Further, liability-scale additive genetic effects interacted with substantial permanent individual and temporary environmental effects to generate complex non-additive effects on expressed phenotypes, causing substantial intrinsic gene-by-environment interaction variance on the phenotypic scale. Our analyses therefore reveal how temporal dynamics of partial seasonal migration arise from combinations of instantaneous micro-evolution and within-individual phenotypic consistency, and highlight how intrinsic phenotypic plasticity could expose genetic variation underlying discrete traits to complex forms of selection.

opencc-by-4.0Jun 2023View details →

Strategic Siting, Design and Operation of Dams minimizes Impacts on Seasonal Floodplain Inundation

Repository of data files for the paper "Strategic Siting, Design and Operation of Dams minimizes Impacts on Seasonal Floodplain Inundation" submitted to Environmental Research Letters.

opencc-by-4.0Jun 2023View details →

Anthropogenic attribution of the increasing seasonal amplitude in surface ocean pCO2: data to prepare figures

The file contains the data to plot the graphics displayed in Joos et al., Anthropogenic attribution of the increasing seasonal  amplitude in surface ocean pCO2, Geophys. Res. Letters, in press, June 2023.

opencc-zeroJun 2023View details →

Breeding season forest fragment size does not create negative carry-over for adult Wood Thrushes on fall migration timing or apparent annual survival

Although carry-over effects related to wintering habitat quality are known to influence population dynamics of migratory songbirds, the presence of breeding season carry-over is under-studied in full annual cycle models. To test whether forest fragment size on the breeding grounds can impose negative carry-over effects on a migratory songbird, we fitted adult Wood Thrushes with one-year coded radio-tags in forest fragments ranging from 11–499 ha in southwestern Ontario during the 2016–2019 breeding seasons and utilized automated telemetry via the Motus Wildlife Tracking System to record fall migration timing and returns the following spring (apparent annual survival). To examine short-term effects of fragment size on breeding females, during the 2018 and 2019 breeding seasons, we collected blood samples during incubation to measure corticosterone levels and tracked complete reproductive success and nest timing. We found that Wood Thrushes breeding in small forest fragments were not subject to strong negative effects on body condition (mass, corticosterone), reproductive success, or timing of the last nest of the season. Next, we found that the onset of fall migration departure was not delayed for birds nesting in small fragments and that apparent annual survival was not linked to breeding fragment size. This suggests that habitat differences linked to fragment size were not strong enough to trigger the kinds of negative carry-over effects (delayed migration, lower reproductive success) that have been documented in other species as a result of poor wintering ground habitat quality. The strength of breeding fragment size-induced seasonal carry-over remains a critical gap in full annual cycle models for other declining migratory songbirds. Our findings suggest that while the importance of preserving large forested areas is often prioritized in conservation projects, small forest fragments can also have high conservation value.

opencc-zeroJul 2023View details →

Consequences of cross-season demographic correlations for population viability

Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long-lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross-season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non-overlapping year-round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between adult survival prior to breeding on productivity or a relationship between productivity and adult survival in the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient life table response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the difference in year-round distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength of population-level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of demographic variation through life-history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates differed among puffin populations, which has implications for – particularly small – populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate.

opencc-by-4.0Jul 2023View details →

Model output from Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP) as used in Seasonal Snow Predictability Derived from Early-Season Snow in North America

The files provided here are the output from the median peak snow water equivalent (peak_SWE.mat), 1 December snow water equivalent (Dec1_SWE.mat), and 1 January snow water equivalent (Jan1_SWE.mat) model simulations for the Noah-MP run with MERRA-2 forcing, as used in Lundquist et al. (2023) and described in Kim et al. (2021).  We also include the model grid's latitude, longitude and elevation data (SEUPlatlon.mat), and example code for plotting the data (Plotmodeldata.m) as in the Lundquist et al. (2023) paper.  Kim, R. S., Kumar, S., Vuyovich, C., Houser, P., Lundquist, J., Mudryk, L., et al. (2021). Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP): Quantification of snow water equivalent uncertainty across North America via ensemble land surface modeling. The Cryosphere, 15(2), 771-791. Lundquist, J. D., R. S. Kim, M. Durand, and L. R. Prugh, 2023, Seasonal Peak Snow Predictability Derived from Early-Season Snow in North America, Geophysical Research Letters, (submitted 2023)

Figure 8a–b in Abundance and Seasonal Occurrence of Pest Fruit Flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Residential and Rural Areas of Oahu (Hawaiian Islands)

Figure 8a–b. Mean captures of female C. capitata per trap per week in torula yeast traps at different sites (a), in different habitats (a, insert graph), and as monthly means throughout the trapping periods in different habitats (b). Values with the same letter in insert graph are not significantly different at the 0.05 level (Tukey's test, post ANOVA). F = 315.75; df = 6,27535; P <0.001; r2 = 6.44%; n = 228 (coffee), 2514 (gardens), 1807 (NW Oahu), 13230 (residential), 1658 (rural), 5630 (urban), 2475 (Waialua).

Figure 4a–b in Abundance and Seasonal Occurrence of Pest Fruit Flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Residential and Rural Areas of Oahu (Hawaiian Islands)

Figure 4a–b. Mean captures of female B. cucurbitae per trap per week in torula yeast traps at different sites (a), in different habitats (a, insert graph), and as monthly means throughout the trapping periods in different habitats (b). Values with the same letter in insert graph are not significantly different at the 0.05 level (Tukey's test, post ANOVA). F = 2897.68; df = 5,27536; P <0.001; r2 = 34.48%; n = 2514 (gardens), 1807 (NW Oahu), 13230 (residential), 1886 (rural), 5630 (urban), 2475 (Waialua).

Figure 3a–b in Abundance and Seasonal Occurrence of Pest Fruit Flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Residential and Rural Areas of Oahu (Hawaiian Islands)

Figure 3a–b. Mean captures of male B. cucurbitae per trap per week in cue-lure traps at different sites (a), in different habitats (a, insert graph), and as monthly means throughout the trapping periods in different habitats (b). Values with the same letter in insert graph are not significantly different at the 0.05 level (Tukey's test, post ANOVA). F = 5453.02; df = 5,18128; P <0.001; r2 = 60.06%); n = 2514 (gardens), 1807 (NW Oahu), 8879 (residential), 1720 (rural), 739 (urban), 2475 (Waialua).

Figure 7a–b in Abundance and Seasonal Occurrence of Pest Fruit Flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Residential and Rural Areas of Oahu (Hawaiian Islands)

Figure 7a–b. Mean captures of male C. capitata per trap per week in trimedlure traps at different sites (a), in different habitats (a, insert graph), and as monthly means throughout the trapping periods in different habitats (b). Values with the same letter in insert graph are not significantly different at the 0.05 level (Tukey's test, post ANOVA). F = 586.20; df = 6,18127; P <0.001; r2 = 16.25%; n = 228 (coffee), 2514 (gardens), 1807 (NW Oahu), 8879 (residential), 1492 (rural), 739 (urban), 2475 (Waialua).

Figure 2a–f in Abundance and Seasonal Occurrence of Pest Fruit Flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Residential and Rural Areas of Oahu (Hawaiian Islands)

Figure 2a–f. Overall mean (±SE) monthly captures of male B. cucurbitae in cue-lure traps (a), female B. cucurbitae in protein traps (b), male B. dorsalis in methyl eugenol traps (c), female B. dorsalis in protein traps (d), male C. capitata in trimedlure traps (e), and female C. capitata in protein traps, based on all trapping sites maintained on Oahu between April 2009 and December 2013.