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269 results for “Regional climate”
Climate velocities and species tracking in global mountain regions
<p>Mountain ranges harbor high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species under anthropogenic climate change<sup>1,2</sup>. Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as climate warms<sup>3,4</sup>. However, a global analysis of isotherm shift velocities along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions<sup>5</sup>. We address this by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally using satellite data (SLRT) and laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour<sup>6</sup> (i.e., the moist adiabatic lapse rate: MALRT). Dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or MALRT, we provide the first maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (> 11.67 m/yr for the SLRT, > 8.25 m/yr for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates like Northern Sumatra, the Brazilian Highlands, and Southern Africa. By linking these velocities to species range shift velocities, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting persisting range shift dynamics even if we manage to curb climate change trajectories. Our findings are vital for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions we identified.</p> <p><strong>References</strong></p> <ol> <li>Rahbek, C.<em> et al.</em> Building mountain biodiversity: Geological and evolutionary processes. <em>Science</em> 365, 1114-1119 (2019).</li> <li>Rahbek, C.<em> et al.</em> Humboldt's enigma: What causes global patterns of mountain biodiversity? <em>Science</em> 365, 1108-1113 (2019).</li> <li>Chen, I. C., Hill, J. K., Ohlemuller, R., Roy, D. B. & Thomas, C. D. Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming. <em>Science</em> 333, 1024-1026 (2011).</li> <li>Lenoir, J.<em> et al.</em> Species better track climate warming in the oceans than on land. <em>Nature Ecology & Evolution</em>, 1-16 (2020).</li> <li>Pepin, N.<em> et al.</em> Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. <em>Nat Clim Change</em> 5, 424-430 (2015).</li> <li>Holton, J. R. & Hakim, G. J. <em>An introduction to dynamic meteorology</em>. Vol. 88 (Academic press, 2012).</li> </ol>
Data and Code for "A Novel Emergent Constraint Approach for Refining Regional Climate Model Projections of Flood Timing" Paper Submission to AGU GRL
<p>This contains the emergent constraint code, the offline CMIP6 hydrology data, and the shapefiles for each region used in the paper "A Novel Emergent Constraint Approach for Refining Regional Climate Model Projections of Flood Timing" submitted to AGU GRL.</p>
Spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland aboveground biomass in northern China and the alpine region: Impacts of climate change and human activities
<p>We employed CASA model to estimate grassland Net Primary Productivity and aboveground biomass A(AGB) from meteorological and GIMMS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) remote sensing data in northern China. We analyzed the dynamics of grassland AGB and impacts climate change and human activites.</p>
Spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland aboveground biomass in northern China and the alpine region: Impacts of climate change and human activities
<p>We employed CASA model to estimate grassland Net Primary Productivity and aboveground biomass A(AGB) from meteorological and GIMMS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) remote sensing data in northern China. We analyzed the dynamics of grassland AGB and impacts climate change and human activites.</p>
Climate characteristics and trends of extreme daily precipitation events associated with cold fronts in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil
<p>Data used in the paper "Climate characteristics and trends of extreme daily precipitation events associated with cold fronts in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil" from Theoretical and Applied Climatology</p>
Climate model (CM2.6) and regional model (ACM) processed output used to investigate the physical drivers and biogeochemical effects of the weakening of the northwest North Atlantic Shelfbreak Jet (Garcia-Suarez & Fennel., 2024; JAMES)
<p>Key processed output from the climate model GFDL CM2.6 and the regional Atlantic Canada model (ACM) used to investigate the physical drivers and the biogeochemical effects of the weakening of the shelfbreak jet in the northwest North Atlantic Ocean. The dataset includes all model variables required to reproduce the key results in <em>Garcia-Suarez & Fennel (2024, JAMES)</em>. See <em>GarciaSuarezandFennel_JAMES_CM26_ACM_data_README_v2.txt</em> for more details.</p>
Object-based evaluation of precipitation systems in convection-permitting regional climate simulation over eastern China
<p>Data used in the manuscript "<strong>Object-based evaluation of precipitation systems in convection-permitting regional climate simulation over eastern China</strong>" which was submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. </p>
Future Projection of Solar Energy Over China Based on Multi-Regional Climate Model Simulations
<p>Data for article "Future Projection of Solar Energy Over China Based on Multi-Regional Climate Model Simulations"</p>
Eocene to Oligocene vegetation and climate in the Tasmanian Gateway region controlled by changes in ocean currents and pCO2
<p>Datasets accompanying Eocene to Oligocene vegetation and climate in the Tasmanian Gateway region controlled by changes in ocean currents and pCO2 by Amoo et al.</p> <p>Supplementary table S1: Raw palynomorph assemblage data, total counts, ODP Site 1172 </p> <p>Supplementary table S2: Sporomorph-based climate estimates including MAT, WMMT, CMMT and MAP </p> <p>Supplementary table S3: Sporomorph diversity indices</p>
Resilience of seagrass populations to thermal stress does not reflect regional differences in ocean climate
<p>1. The prevalence of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity among populations is critical to accurately predicting when and where climate change impacts will occur. Currently, comparisons of thermal performance between populations are untested for most marine species or overlooked by models predicting the thermal sensitivity of species to extirpation.</p> <p>2. Here we compared the ecological response and recovery of seagrass populations (<i>Posidonia oceanica</i>) to thermal stress throughout a year-long translocation experiment across a 2800 km gradient in ocean climate. Transplants in central and warm-edge locations experienced temperatures >29 ºC, representing thermal anomalies >5ºC above long-term maxima for cool-edge populations, 1.5ºC for central and <1ºC for warm-edge populations.</p> <p>3. Cool, central and warm-edge populations differed in thermal performance when grown under common conditions, but patterns contrasted with expectations based on thermal geography. Cool-edge populations did not differ from warm-edge populations under common conditions and performed significantly better than central populations in growth and survival.</p> <p>4. Our findings reveal that thermal performance does not necessarily reflect the thermal geography of a species. We demonstrate that warm-edge populations can be less sensitive to thermal stress than cooler, central populations suggesting that Mediterranean seagrasses have greater resilience to warming than current paradigms suggest.</p>
Factors determining regional climate change competitiveness
<p>Regional climate change competitiveness is the comprehensive ability of a region to achieve and sustain the competitive advantage and attain economic and social development under climate change constraints when compared with other regions in the process of development. This database contains the raw data illustrating the EU region’s (NUTS2) impact on climate change and the effects of the region's and sector's climate change adaptatove measures.</p>
Thermal performance of seaweeds and seagrasses across a regional climate gradient
<p><span>Comparative patterns in thermal performance between populations have fundamental implications for a species thermal sensitivity to warming and extreme events. Despite this, within-species variation in thermal performance is seldom measured. Here we compare thermal performance between-species variation within communities, for two species of seagrass (<i>Posidonia oceanica</i> and <i>Cymodocea nodosa</i>) and two species of seaweed (<i>Padina pavonica</i> and <i>Cystoseira compressa</i>). Experimental populations from four locations spanning approximately 75% of each species global distribution and a 6ºC gradient in summer temperatures were exposed to 10 temperature treatments (15ºC to 36ºC), reflecting median, maximum and future temperatures. Experimental thermal performance displayed the greatest variability between species, with optimal temperatures differing by over 10ºC within the same location. Within-species differences in thermal performance were also important for <i>P. oceanica</i> which displayed large thermal safety margins within cool and warm-edge populations and small safety margins within central populations. Our findings suggest patterns of thermal performance in Mediterranean seagrasses and seaweeds retain deep 'pre-Mediterranean' evolutionary legacies, suggesting marked differences in sensitivity to warming within and between benthic marine communities.</span></p>
Dataset and R code from: Positive and negative effects of land abandonment on butterfly communities revealed by a hierarchical sampling design across climatic regions
<p class="MsoNormal">Land abandonment may decrease biodiversity but also provides an opportunity for rewilding. It is therefore necessary to identify areas that may benefit from traditional land management practices and those that may benefit from a lack of human intervention. In this study, we conducted comparative field surveys of butterfly occurrence in abandoned and inhabited settlements in 18 regions of diverse climatic zones in Japan to test the hypotheses that species-specific responses to land abandonment correlate with climatic niches and habitat preferences. Hierarchical models that unified species occurrence and habitat preferences revealed that negative responses to land abandonment were associated with species that have cold climatic niches and utilize open habitats, suggesting that species negatively impacted by land abandonment will decline more due to future climate warming. Maps representing species gains and losses due to land abandonment, which were created from the model estimates, showed similar geographic patterns, but some areas exhibited high species losses relative to gains. Our hierarchical modelling approach was useful for scaling up local-scale effects of land abandonment to a macro-scale assessment, which is crucial to developing spatial conservation strategies in the era of depopulation.</p>
Code for APJAS publication - Numerical errors in ice microphysics parameterizations and their effects on simulated regional climate
<p>In this repository, we include the source codes for WRF microphysics parameterization used in the APJAS publication "Numerical errors in ice microphysics parameterizations and their effects on simulated regional climate"</p> <p>There are three WDM6 codes for simulations. The original WDM6 code (ORG) using parameter defined by Hong et al (2004), the revised WDM6 code (NEW) those revised by removing the numerical errors, and the additional WDM6 code (SEN) for sensitivity experiment adopting the column-shaped parameters.</p> <p>In supplement, several cloud-ice characteristics presented in the paper were induced in detail and compared with Hong et al (2004) and this study.</p>
Lagrangian Heavy Precipitation Events in convection-permitting Regional Climate Models over the Alps and in the Mediterranean
<p>The csv datafile contains a set of heavy precipitation events identified in cpRCMs.</p> <p>Each of the entries represents an event and is described with detailed properties:</p> <p>'Start Date [YYYYMMDD.HOUR/24]', 'Latitude [°]', 'Longitude [°]',<br> 'Duration [h]', 'Volume [km² h]', 'P99(pr) [mm h-1]',<br> 'P90(pr) [mm h-1]', 'P75(pr) [mm h-1]',<br> 'P50(pr) [mm h-1]', 'P25(pr) [mm h-1]',<br> 'P10(pr) [mm h-1]', 'Total Precipitation [m3]',<br> 'Maximum Precipitation [mm h-1$]',<br> 'Mean Precipitation [mm h-1$]', 'Direction [°]',<br> 'Distance Traveled [km]', 'Eccentricity [-]', 'Track Eccentricity [-]',<br> 'Mean Ellipsicity [-]', 'Track Ellipsicity [-]', 'Mean Major Angle [°]',<br> 'Track Major Angle [°]', 'Mean Major Axis [-]', 'Track Major Axis [-]',<br> 'My Orientation [°]', 'My Track Orientation [°]', 'max(Elevation) [m]',<br> 'min(Elevation) [m]', 'Start Year [YYYY]', 'Start Month [MM]',<br> 'LandFallSea [-]', 'Scenarios', 'Models', 'situations', 'Ensemble',<br> 'Speed [km h$^{-1}$]', 'Mean(Area) [km²]', 'orographic [-]',<br> 'Severity [-]', 'I/O OBS [-]', 'Region [-]', 'orographic1500 [-]',<br> 'orographic2000 [-]', 'orographic2500 [-]', 'orographic3000 [-]']</p>
The June 2012 North American Derecho: A testbed for evaluating regional and global climate modeling systems at cloud-resolving scales
<p>This is the companion data for the manuscript titled 'The June 2012 North American Derecho: A testbed for evaluating regional and global climate modeling systems at cloud-resolving scales', submitted to the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems in September 2022.</p> <p>derecho_simulation_result: this folder contains part of the SCREAM RRM outputs I ran on NERSC Cori in 2021-2022 corresponding to the simulation in Table 1 of the manuscript.</p> <p>wrf_simulation_result: this folder contains part of the WRF outputs run by Jianfeng Li from PNNL (jianfeng.li@pnnl.gov) in 2022 corresponding to the simulations in Table 4 of the manuscript.</p> <p>plot_script: this folder includes python scripts to plot figures shown in the manuscript.</p> <p>ASOS_station: this txt file contains the processed ASOS station wind speed used in the manuscript.</p> <p><br> Unfortunately, all model outputs are large (~ 3.8 TB for SCREAM RRM and 3.1 TB for WRF). Therefore, I only provide the variables (i.e., OLR, precipitation, composite radar reflectivity, and 10-m wind speed) used directly to generate figures in this repository. All model outputs are archived on tape at NERSC.</p> <p>For more details, refer to the manuscript, or contact me (wrliu@ucdavis.edu).</p>
Intraspecific trait variation in a dryland tree species corresponds to regional climate gradients
<p><strong>Aim:</strong> Intraspecific trait variation is fundamental to understanding a species' adaptive capacity. Assessing phenotypic variation at different ecological scales is useful for evaluating species' vulnerability to changing environmental conditions. Here we quantify the ecological scale of variation of phenotypic functional traits for a widespread dryland tree species in the western United States, <em>Pinus monophylla</em>, and evaluate the strength of trait-environment relationships across spatial gradients and in response to interannual variability in weather conditions.</p> <p><strong>Location:</strong> Western United States</p> <p><strong>Taxon:</strong> Conifer tree (Pinaceae): <em>Pinus monophylla</em></p> <p><strong>Methods:</strong> Nine reproductive and foliar morphological traits were measured from 23 sampling locations in nine mountain ranges, stratified across broad-scale gradients of precipitation timing and quantity and local gradients of elevation. We partitioned trait variation within and among nested ecological scales (mountain range, site, tree, and tree growth year). We then used multivariate methods to quantify the association between environmental variables and ecological trade-offs associated with both reproductive and foliar traits.</p> <p><strong>Results:</strong> Most variation was explained at the scale of individual trees (18–46%) and between growth years (20–30%), with smaller but variable contributions at the scale of sites (8–25%) and mountain ranges (0–15%). Trait values had low correlation with environmental variables (13%); however, 94% of the trait-environment covariance was explained by two major axes of variation: (1) the drought-stress gradient covarying with reproductive traits, and (2) precipitation patterns covarying with foliar morphology.</p> <p><strong>Main conclusions:</strong> High levels of individual trait variation indicate within-population adaptive capacity. Consistent relationships among range-wide patterns of foliar and reproductive traits and broad-scale climate gradients provide indirect evidence of local adaptation and may inform seed sourcing for restoration or the potential for assisted migration efforts. Quantification of intraspecific trait variation across multiple ecological scales is important for understanding the potential climate change response of dryland tree species.</p>
Forecast of the competitiveness of EU regions in the conditions of climate change
<p>The database contains forecasts of the values of climate change competitiveness (Regional Climate Change Competitiveness Index) of EU regions (NUTS2) and countries. The calculations were made for the period 2022-2032 and for period 2022-2100 using the ARIMA method.</p> <p>The Regional Climate Change Competitiveness Index is a mean to evaluate the ability of a region to use factors of competitiveness for the formation of a competitive position of the region under climate change conditions.The structure of the index stems from the premise that it constitutes a function of pillars that can be grouped into six broad sub-indexes: Basic, Natural, Efficiency, Innovation, Sectoral, and Social.Twenty-eight pillars were used in order to determine the main index. The higher the value of Regional Climate Change Competitiveness Index, the higher the level of regional competitiveness. For detailed methodology see: Karman, A.; Miszczuk, A.; Bronisz, U. Regional Climate Change Competitiveness—Modelling Approach. Energies 2021, 14, 3704. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14123704.</p> <p>The forecast can be used by regional authorities to model regional policy (policy-mix, tools, measures) against the climate change.</p> <p>Funding: National Science Centre Poland, „Modelling of climate change impacts on regional competitiveness” 2019/35/B/HS5/01548</p>
Wave climate simulations for Denmark - for paper 'Coinciding storm surge and wave setup: A regional assessment of sea level rise impact'
<p>This wave climate dataset are the results for the paper titled 'Coinciding storm surge and wave setup: A regional assessment of sea level rise impact'.</p> <p>The operational wave forecasting service provided by DMI-WAM uses the WAM Cycle version 4.5.4, a third-generation spectral wave model. DMI-WAM is used for the wave climate simulations. The meteorological forcing used in this study was obtained from the regional climate model DMI-HIRHAM, developed by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). It is a component of the CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) ensemble in Europe. Regarding the selection of the time frame and IPCC scenarios in our study, we adhered to the recommendations provided by municipalities. Municipalities are keenly interested in obtaining near-future wind wave data for the specific purpose of using them for risk management. Therefore, the examination of forthcoming weather extremes in the near future within the context of the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5 scenario) is of significance within this investigation. We conduct simulations that encompass two distinct time periods: the historical period spanning from 1976 to 2005, and the near-future period from 2041 to 2070. We analyse the WAM model results for wave climate under both present climate conditions (1976-2005) and future climate scenarios (2041-2070) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Furthermore, note that while our wave climate simulations provide valuable insights into the dynamics of wind-induced waves, the mean SLR is not explicitly taken into account. The mean SLR component is considered in the storm surge simulations.</p> <p>Description of files:</p> <p><a href="../api/records/11052226/draft/files/sla.swh.slope.hist.final.max.nc/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">sla.swh.slope.hist.final.max.nc</a> - Maximum sea level, significant wave height, wave length and slope for the historical period.</p> <p><a href="../api/records/11052226/draft/files/sla.swh.slope.rcp85.final.max.MSLR35.nc/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">sla.swh.slope.rcp85.final.max.MSLR35.nc</a> - Maximum sea level, significant wave height, wave length and slope for the RCP8.5 period.</p> <p><a href="../api/records/11052226/draft/files/wavesetup.hist.final.max.nc/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wavesetup.hist.final.max.nc</a> - Maximum wave setup for the historical period.</p> <p><a href="../api/records/11052226/draft/files/wavesetup.rcp85.final.max.MSLR35.nc/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wavesetup.rcp85.final.max.MSLR35.nc</a> - Maximum wave setup for the RCP8.5 period.</p> <p><a href="../api/records/11052226/draft/files/wam.grib.his.swh.98p.nc/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wam.grib.his.swh.98p.nc</a> - 2% exceedence of significant wave height for the historical period.</p> <p><a href="../api/records/11052226/draft/files/wam.grib.rcp8.swh.98p.nc/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wam.grib.rcp8.swh.98p.nc</a> - 2% exceedence of significant wave height for the RCP8.5 period.</p>
Wetland creation and reforestation of legacy surface mines in the Central Applachian Region (USA): A potential climate-adaptation approach for pond-breeding amphibians?
<p>Habitat restoration and creation within human-altered landscapes can buffer the impacts of climate change on wildlife. The Forestry Reclamation Approach (FRA) is a coal surface mine reclamation practice that enhances reforestation through soil decompaction and the planting of native trees. Recently, wetland creation has been coupled with FRA to increase habitat available for wildlife, including amphibians. Our objective was to evaluate the response of pond-breeding amphibians to the FRA by comparing species occupancy, richness, and abundance across two FRA age-classes (2–5-year and 8–1—year reclaimed forests), traditionally reclaimed sites that were left to naturally regenerate after mining, and in mature, unmined forests in the Monongahela National Forest (West Virginia, USA). We found that species richness and occupancy estimates did not differ across treatment types. Spotted Salamanders (<em>Ambystoma maculatum</em>) and Eastern Newts (<em>Notophthalmus viridescens</em>) had the greatest estimated abundances in wetlands in the older FRA treatment. Additionally, larger wetlands had greater abundances of Eastern Newts, Wood Frogs (<em>Lithobates sylvaticus</em>), and Green Frogs (<em>L. clamitans</em>) compared to smaller wetlands. Our results suggest that wetland creation and reforestation increases the number of breeding sites and promotes microhabitat and microclimate conditions that likely maximize the resilience of pond-breeding amphibians to anticipated climate changes in the study area.</p>
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