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233 results for “climatic niche”
Temporal variability is key to modelling the climatic niche
<p><strong>Aim</strong><i>:</i> Niche-based species distribution models (SDMs) have become a ubiquitous tool in ecology and biogeography. These models relate species occurrences with the environmental conditions found at these sites. Climatic variables are the most commonly used environmental data, and are usually included in SDMs as averages of a reference period (30-50 years). In this study we analyze the impact of including inter-annual climatic variability on the estimation of species niches and predicted distributions when assessing plant demographic response to extreme climatic episodes.</p> <p><strong>Location</strong><i>:</i> Mediterranean basin, SE Iberian Peninsula.</p> <p><strong>Methods</strong><i>:</i> We first characterized species niches with inter-annual and average climate in the same environmental space. We then compare the respective capacities of climatic suitability obtained from averaged climate-based and from inter-annual variability-based niches to explain population demographic responses to extreme drought. Furthermore, we assessed the relative increase in niche size when including climatic variability for a set of Mediterranean species exhibiting a wide range of distribution areas.</p> <p><strong>Results</strong><i>:</i> We found that climatic suitability obtained from inter-annual variability-based niches showed higher explanatory capacity than average climate-based suitability, especially for populations living in climatically marginal conditions, although both niches quantifications significantly explained species demographic responses. In addition, species with restricted distribution ranges increased relatively more their niche space when considering climatic variability, probably because in widely distributed species spatial variability compensates for temporal variability.</p> <p><strong>Main Conclusions</strong><i>:</i> The common use of climatic averages when characterizing species niches could lead to underestimations of species distribution and misunderstanding of demographic behavior, with implications for conservation plans derived from SDMs, e.g. overestimations of species extinction risk under climate change, or underestimations of alien species invasion' risk. We highlight that including climatic variability in niche modelling can be particularly important when dealing with species with restricted distribution and populations at the margin of their species niche.</p>
Data from: Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant
A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.
Data from: Reconstructing changes in the genotype, phenotype, and climatic niche of an introduced species
An introduced species must contend with enormous environmental variation in its introduced range. In this study, we use niche models and ordination analyses to reconstruct changes in genotype, phenotype, and climatic niche of Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense), which is regarded as one of the world's most threatening invasive plants. In the United States, Johnsongrass has rapidly evolved within- and among-population genetic diversity; our results show that genetic differentiation in expanding Johnsongrass populations has resulted in phenotypic variation that is consistent with habitat and climatic variation encountered during its expansion. Moreover, Johnsongrass expanded from agricultural to non-agricultural habitat, and now, despite occupying overlapping ranges, extant agricultural and non-agricultural populations are genetically and phenotypically distinct and manifest different plastic responses when encountering environmental variation. Non-agricultural accessions are broadly distributed in climatic and geographic space and their fitness traits demonstrate plastic responses to common garden conditions that are consistent with local specialization. In contrast, agricultural accessions demonstrate "general purpose" plastic responses and have more restricted climatic niches and geographic distributions. They also grow much larger than non-agricultural accessions. If these differences are adaptive, our results suggest that adaptation to local habitat variation plays a crucial role in the ecology of this invader. Further, its success relates to its ability to succeed on dual fronts, by responding simultaneously to habitat and climate variability and by capitalizing on differential responses to these factors during its range expansion.
Community science validates climate suitability projections from ecological niche modeling
<p><span>Climate change poses an intensifying threat to many bird species, and projections of future climate suitability provide insight into how species may shift their distributions in response. Climate suitability is characterized using ecological niche models (ENMs), which correlate species occurrence data with current environmental covariates and project future distributions using the modeled relationships together with climate predictions. Despite their widespread adoption, ENMs rely on several assumptions that are rarely validated <i>in situ </i>and can be highly sensitive to modeling decisions, precluding their reliability in conservation decision-making. Using data from a novel, large-scale community science program, we developed dynamic occupancy models to validate near-term climate suitability projections for bluebirds and nuthatches in summer and winter. We estimated occupancy, colonization, and extinction dynamics across species' ranges in the United States in relation to projected climate suitability in the 2020s, and used a Gibbs variable selection approach to quantify evidence of species-climate relationships. We also included a Bird Conservation Region strata-level random effect to examine among-strata variation in occupancy that may be attributable to land-use and ecoregional differences. Across species and seasons, we found strong evidence that initial occupancy and colonization were positively related to 2020 climate suitability, illustrating an independent validation of projections from ENMs across a large geographic area. </span><span>Random strata effects revealed that occupancy probabilities were generally higher than average in core areas and lower than average in peripheral areas of species' ranges, and served as a first step in identifying spatial patterns of occupancy from these community science data. </span><span>Our findings lend much-needed support to the use of ENM projections for addressing questions about potential climate-induced changes in species' occupancy dynamics. More broadly, </span>our work highlights the value of community scientist observations for ground-truthing projections from statistical models and for refining our understanding of the processes shaping species' distributions under a changing climate.</p>
Data from: Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change.
Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.
Data from: Stepping inside the niche: microclimate data are critical for accurate assessment of species' vulnerability to climate change
To assess a species' vulnerability to climate change, we commonly use mapped environmental data that are coarsely resolved in time and space. Coarsely resolved temperature data are typically inaccurate at predicting temperatures in microhabitats used by an organism and may also exhibit spatial bias in topographically complex areas. One consequence of these inaccuracies is that coarsely resolved layers may predict thermal regimes at a site that exceed species' known thermal limits. In this study, we use statistical downscaling to account for environmental factors and develop high-resolution estimates of daily maximum temperatures for a 36 000 km2 study area over a 38-year period. We then demonstrate that this statistical downscaling provides temperature estimates that consistently place focal species within their fundamental thermal niche, whereas coarsely resolved layers do not. Our results highlight the need for incorporation of fine-scale weather data into species' vulnerability analyses and demonstrate that a statistical downscaling approach can yield biologically relevant estimates of thermal regimes.
Data from: The seasonal climate niche predicts phenology and distribution of an ephemeral annual plant, Mollugo verticillata
1.Many short-lived species complete their life cycles during brief seasonal windows of favorable environmental conditions. Such species may persist in the face of climate warming by migration to track their seasonal climate niche in space and/or by phenological shifts to track favorable conditions in time within the year. To describe the seasonal climate niche of the short-lived annual Mollugo verticillata in California, we used data from herbarium specimens and historic climate records to estimate environmental conditions at the location, month and year of each collection. 2.We used these data in a MaxEnt framework to construct a seasonal species distribution model (SDM) of the species' climate niche within the total climate space available across all seasons and locations in California. The model provides fine-scale spatial and temporal predictions of habitat suitability, predicting both where and when the species should be observed. 3.We compared the predictions of the model to those from a conventional SDM based on mean annual climate data. Both models showed that M. verticillata is limited to warm environments within California. However, the seasonal SDM also predicted phenology by mapping climate suitability across the state for each month of the year. Mollugo verticillata is limited to warm months, and its seasonal climate niche shifts in space across California in the course of the year. 4.We used the seasonal SDM to map the predicted future species distribution for each month of the year under three warming scenarios. The species is predicted to expand its range and occur earlier in the year in most locations; in the warmest locations seasonal suitability is predicted to decline in the warmest months, which may result in bimodal phenology with a mid-summer gap. 5.Synthesis - We developed a novel species distribution model using herbarium records and monthly weather data, which predicts not only where a short-lived species should be found, but when during the year it is predicted to occur in those areas. This model can be used to predict how climate change will affect the species distribution in space as well as seasonal phenology across the landscape.
Data from: Quantifying the climatic niche of symbiont partners in a lichen symbiosis indicates mutualist-mediated niche expansions
The large distributional areas and ecological niches of many lichenized fungi may in part be due to the plasticity in interactions between the fungus (mycobiont) and its algal or cyanobacterial partners (photobionts). On the one hand, broad-scale phylogenetic analyses show that partner compatibility in lichens is rather constrained and shaped by reciprocal selection pressures and codiversification independent of ecological drivers. On the other hand, sub-species-level associations among lichen symbionts appear to be environmentally structured rather than phylogenetically constrained. In particular, switching between photobiont ecotypes with distinct environmental preferences has been hypothesized as an adaptive strategy for lichen-forming fungi to broaden their ecological niche. The extent and direction of photobiont-mediated range expansions in lichens, however, have not been examined comprehensively at a broad geographic scale. Here we investigate the population genetic structure of Lasallia pustulata symbionts at sub-species-level resolution across the mycobiont's Europe-wide range, using fungal MCM7 and algal ITS rDNA sequence markers. We show that variance in occurrence probabilities in the geographic distribution of genetic diversity in mycobiont-photobiont interactions is closely related to changes in climatic niches. Quantification of niche extent and overlap based on species distribution modeling and construction of Hutchinsonian climatic hypervolumes revealed that combinations of fungal-algal interactions change at the sub-species level along latitudinal temperature gradients and in Mediterranean climate zones. Our study provides evidence for symbiont-mediated niche expansion in lichens. We discuss our results in the light of symbiont polymorphism and partner switching as potential mechanisms of environmental adaptation and niche evolution in mutualisms.
Fig. 3 in Data from: Climate niche differentiation between two passerines despite ongoing gene flow
Fig. 3 Sexual dimorphism oc the CF and FM duration oc echolocation pulses emitted bv hanging Hipposideros pratti. A-1, B-1, C-1 ss. A-2, B-2, C-2: the distribution oc CF and FM duration oc echolocation pulses recorded crom male and cemale bats. A-3, B-3, C-3: statistical comparison oc these two temporal parameters oc echolocation pulses recorded crom male and cemale bats (see Fig. 2 cor legends)
Fig. 2 in Data from: Climate niche differentiation between two passerines despite ongoing gene flow
Fig. 2 Sexual dimorphism oc the CF, FM bandwidth, and PRR oc echolocation pulses emitted bv hanging Hipposideros pratti. A-1, B-1, C-1 ss. A-2, B-2, C-2: the distribution oc CF, FM bandwidth, and PRR oc echolocation pulses recorded crom male and cemale bats. A-3, B-3, C-3: statistical comparison oc these three pulse parameters recorded crom male and cemale bats. The number within each parenthesis indicates the sample size. Student's t test: *p <0.05; **p <0.01
Fig. 1 in Data from: Climate niche differentiation between two passerines despite ongoing gene flow
Fig. 1 The sonogram (a) and power spectrum (b) oc a representatise echolocation pulse emitted bv a hanging Hipposideros pratti. The CF (kHz), FM bandwidth (kHz), CF duration (ms), and FM duration (ms) oc this echolocation pulse were 60.0, 12.8, 7.5, and 2.7. Clearlv, the second harmonic is the predominant one that contains the highest energv
Supplementary - Testing the Tropical Niche Conservatism Hypothesis: Climatic niche evolution of Escallonia Mutis ex L. F. (Escalloniaceae)
<p>Supplementary material of the article Testing the Tropical Niche Conservatism Hypothesis: Climatic niche evolution of Escallonia Mutis ex L. F. (Escalloniaceae)</p>
Fig. 8 in Taxonomic revision of the southern hemisphere pygmy forget-me-not group (Myosotis; Boraginaceae) based on morphological, population genetic and climate-edaphic niche modelling data
Fig. 8. Myosotis antarctica subsp. traillii photographs and distribution map. (a) Habit. (b, d) Rosette leaf tips: (b) adaxial and (d) abaxial sides. (c) Flower. (e) Nutlets. (f) Map of georeferenced herbarium specimens observed by J. M. Prebble (35). Whie scale bars: 2 mm; black scale bars: 1 mm. Photo credits: a, e by J. M. Prebble (a: WELT SP100487, Tiwai Point, Southland, South Island; e: WELT SP104518, cultivated ex Mason Bay, Stewart Island). b, c © Te Papa by H. M. Meudt (b: WELT SP090544, Manihi Rd, Taranaki, North Island; c: WELT SP090629, Hukanui, Gisborne, North Island; d: WELT SP090631, Waipuna, Gisborne, North Island).
Fig. 2 in Taxonomic revision of the southern hemisphere pygmy forget-me-not group (Myosotis; Boraginaceae) based on morphological, population genetic and climate-edaphic niche modelling data
Fig. 2. Maps of MaxEnt niche models for pygmy Myosotis in New Zealand and southern South America. (a) Myosotis glauca (light blue circles). (b) M. pygmaea (green circles). (c, h) M. "Volcanic Plateau" (grey triangles). (d) M. brevis (yellow cir-cles). (e) M. drucei (dark blue circles; excluding individuals identified as M. "Volcanic Plateau"). (f) M. drucei (dark blue circles) + M. pygmaea (green circles) + M. "Volcanic Plateau" (grey triangles) (g) M. antarctica (pink circles; Chilean locations), note scale is the same as for maps of New Zealand. a–f use models based on the nine-layer model (see Table 1), whereas g and h are based on the sevenlayer model.
Fig. 5 in Taxonomic revision of the southern hemisphere pygmy forget-me-not group (Myosotis; Boraginaceae) based on morphological, population genetic and climate-edaphic niche modelling data
Fig. 5. Myosotis glauca photographs and distribution map. (a) Habit. (b) Rosette leaves, adaxial and abaxial sides. (c) Calyces, left to right most to least mature. (d) Nutlets. (e) Map of georeferenced herbarium specimens observed by J. M. Prebble (16). White scale bars: 2 mm; black scale bar: 1 mm. Photo credits: all by J. M. Prebble (WELT SP093285, Nevis Valley, Otago).
Fig. 4 in Taxonomic revision of the southern hemisphere pygmy forget-me-not group (Myosotis; Boraginaceae) based on morphological, population genetic and climate-edaphic niche modelling data
Fig. 4. Myosotis brevis photographs and distribution map. (a) Habit. (b) Inflorescence showing cauline leaf abaxial side. (c) Inflorescence showing cauline leaf adaxial side, calyces, and flower. (d) Rosette leaf adaxial side showing colour morphs. (e) Flower. (f) Nutlet. (g) Map of georeferenced herbarium specimens observed by J. M. Prebble (25). White scale bars: 2 mm; black scale bar: 1 mm. Photo credits: a–e © Te Papa by H. M. Meudt (a: WELT SP090549, Te Ikaamaru Bay, Wellington; b, c: WELT SP090545, Ngawi, Wairarapa; d: WELT SP090543, Stent Road, Taranaki; e: WELT SP090550, Ohau Bay, Wellington); f by J. M. Prebble (WELT SP090543, cultivated ex Stent Road, Taranaki).
Fig. 7. Myosotis antarctica subsp. antarctica. Illustration reproduced from Bot. Antarct. Voy. I in Taxonomic revision of the southern hemisphere pygmy forget-me-not group (Myosotis; Boraginaceae) based on morphological, population genetic and climate-edaphic niche modelling data
Fig. 7. Myosotis antarctica subsp. antarctica. Illustration reproduced from Bot. Antarct. Voy. I. (Fl. Antarct.) Part I, plate 38 (Hooker 1844). Illustration by W. H. Fitch. This image is in the public domain, downloaded from the Biodiversity Heritage Library (https:// www.biodiversitylibrary.org/page/13448452#page/81/ mode/1up, accessed 8 June 2021). Draft pencil drawings for this figure are attached to the type specimen of M. antarctica (K0007878799; visible online at http:// apps.kew.org/herbcat/getImage.do?imageBarcode= K000787899, accessed 8 June 2021), which was collected by J. D. Hooker from Campbell Island.
Fig. 6 in Taxonomic revision of the southern hemisphere pygmy forget-me-not group (Myosotis; Boraginaceae) based on morphological, population genetic and climate-edaphic niche modelling data
Fig. 6. Myosotis antarctica subsp. antarctica photographs and distribution maps. (a, b) Habit. (c) Rosette leaves abaxial and adaxial sides. (d) Flower. (e) Nutlets. (f) Map of mainland New Zealand distribution based on georeferenced herbarium specimens observed by J. M. Prebble (163). (g) Map of Campbell Island distribution based on georeferenced herbarium specimens observed by J. M. Prebble (14). (h) Map of Chilean distribution based on georeferenced herbarium specimens observed by J. M. Prebble (2). White scale bars: 2 mm; black scale bars: 1 mm. Photo credits: a, c, e by J. M. Prebble (a: WELT SP102777, Mt Azimuth, Campbell Island; c: WELT SP093293, Port Hills, Canterbury, South Island E: WELT SP100466, cultivated ex Mt Peel, Western Nelson. South Island). b, d © Te Papa by H. M. Meudt (b: WELT SP106592, Matiri Range, Western Nelson, South Island; d: WELT SP107322, Mt Starveall, Western Nelson, South Island).
Fig. 3 in Taxonomic revision of the southern hemisphere pygmy forget-me-not group (Myosotis; Boraginaceae) based on morphological, population genetic and climate-edaphic niche modelling data
Fig. 3. Plots displaying (a, c) omission and commission values and (b, d) area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC) for two pygmy forget-me-not taxa: (a, b) M. "Volcanic Plateau" and (c, d) M. drucei, modelled using MaxEnt and all nine environmental layers for the New Zealand extent.
Fig. 2 in Climatic Niche Conservatism and Ecological Diversification in the Holarctic Cold-Dwelling Butterfly Genus Erebia
Fig. 2. Illustrative figures of European and Asian mountains (panels A, B) and ancestral reconstruction of climatic traits (panels C–G) for species-specific average values of WorldClim variables.The ancestral reconstructions are based on OU model of evolution in the butterfly genus Erebia.
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