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223 results for “future changes”
Data from: Prediction of Platycodon grandiflorus distribution in China using MaxEnt model concerning current and future climate change
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Data from: Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes
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Present status, future trends, and control strategies of invasive alien plants in China affected by human activities and climate change
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Model output for: Attributing causes of future climate change in the California Current System with multi-model downscaling
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Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania
<p>Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth, and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.</p>
Data from: Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty
Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica. Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.
Data from: Historical baselines and the future of shell calcification for a foundation species in a changing ocean
Seawater pH and the availability of carbonate ions is decreasing due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, posing challenges for calcifying marine species. Marine mussels are of particular concern given their role as foundation species worldwide. Here, we document shell growth and calcification patterns in Mytilus californianus, the California mussel, over millennial and decadal scales. By comparing shell thickness across the largest modern shells, the largest mussels collected in the 1960s-1970s and shells from two Native American midden sites (1000-2420 years BP), we found that modern shells are thinner overall, thinner per age category, and thinner per unit length. Thus, the largest individuals of this species are calcifying less now than in the past. Comparisons of shell thickness in smaller individuals over the past 10-40 years, however, do not show significant shell thinning. Given our sampling strategy, these results are unlikely to simply reflect within-site variability or preservation effects. Review of environmental and biotic drivers known to affect shell calcification suggest declining ocean pH as a likely explanation for the observed shell thinning. Further future decreases in shell thickness could have significant negative impacts on M. californianus survival and, in turn, negatively impact the species rich complex that occupies mussel beds.
Data from: From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants
Climate change is projected to influence the genetic resources of plant species. Recent research has examined genetic diversity patterns under current climate conditions, with little attention to the future genetic consequences for species. In this study, we combined ecological niche modeling and population genetic approaches to project future changes in genetic diversity using plastid and nuclear DNA and reconstructed distribution patterns of three circumboreal plants (Chamaedaphne calyculata, Linnaea borealis ssp. borealis, and Pedicularis sceptrum-carolinum ssp. sceptrum-carolinum) in the last glacial maximum. We found that circumboreal plants could potentially lose their geographic ranges in the future (2070; 35–52% in RCP 4.5 (representative concentration pathways), 37–53% in RCP 6.0, and 56–69% in RCP 8.5), only slightly compensated by a predicted range gain of 18–33% (across the three RCPs). It is expected that future genetic diversity level could remain similar or lower than the present level. On the other hand, the homogeneity of the genetic background—a lack of admixture and domination of one gene pool in most populations of C. calyculata and L. borealis ssp. borealis—was predicted to become more pronounced in the future. Combining the paleoecological niche modeling and genetic data revealed, more precisely, the climate refugia for circumboreal plants in the Alps, central Asia, Beringia, and southern North America and the macrorefugia more restricted to the northern part of Eurasia and North America, reaching the arctic zone.
Data from: The interactive effects of photoperiod and future climate change may have negative consequences for a wide-spread invasive insect
Increasing global temperatures may affect many ectotherms, including insects, although increasing temperatures are thought to benefit future populations through effects on adult size, fecundity, or populations. However, the way that temperature may interact with photoperiod is not well understood. We study this problem using the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, an important worldwide invasive whose future spread is thought to be affected by changes in climate. We investigated how mass at maturity varied with temperature (21°C, 25°C) across short and long photoperiods, using laboratory populations from the extreme ends of this species' current US range (Florida, New Jersey). These values were used to parametrize a model to predict optimal mass based on development times; the results of a second laboratory experiment under the same treatments were compared to model predictions. Warmer conditions shortened development times in females from all locations leading to either higher or lower mass depending on the photoperiod. We then used published mass–fecundity relationships to determine the consequences of mass on fecundity under our conditions. Under the majority of scenarios warming decreased predicted fecundity under long photoperiods, but proved beneficial under short photoperiods because the costs of fast development were offset by increased survival in the face of late-season freezing risk. However, fecundity was always low under short photoperiods, so the marginal benefit of warming appears negligible given its cost under long photoperiods when the majority of reproduction occurs. Thus, with northern range expansion, where colder weather currently limits this species, detrimental effects of warming on fecundity are likely, similar to those identified for mass. Unlike previous work that has shown benefits of a warming planet to insects like Aedes albopictus, our work predicts lower performance under warming conditions in summer across the current range, a prediction with implications for range expansion, disease dynamics and populations.
FIGURE 1 in Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina
FIGURE 1. General Niche-Environment System Factor Analysis (GNESFA) and Factor Analysis of the Niche, Taking the Environment as the Reference (FANTER) for Pristidactylus species. Left column: grey points show the distribution of the RUs (here the pixels) on the axes found by the analysis and black points correspond to the RUs used by the species. Right column: correlations between the environmental variables and the axes. References: P. achalensis A–B; P. nigroiugulus C–D.
FIGURE 5 in Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina
FIGURE 5. Area models for suitability habitat from the averaged replications output for: P. achalensis, A) Present model = 5008.55 km², B) Model for 2050 RCP 45 = 4054.00 km², C) Model for 2050 RCP 85 = 2677.83 km²; P. nigroiugulus, 2) Present model = 71957.34 km², E) Model for 2050 RCP 45 = 56162.45 km², F) Model for 2050 RCP 85 = 38501.27 km². References: Country / province names, protected areas perimeters dashed-green lines, protected areas intersected with suitable areas filled in solid green, localities in red dots, and defined accessible area (M) in the upper left box.
FIGURE 4 in Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina
FIGURE 4. True skill statistic (TSS) performed on the replicates for each species. References: mod, number of model replicate; values close to 1 indicates perfect agreement, values near zero indicates a performance no better than random.
FIGURE 3. RUs histograms for P in Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina
FIGURE 3. RUs histograms for P. nigroiugulus. The white columns show the distributions of available RUs, whereas grey columns show the distributions of used RUs.
FIGURE 2. RUs histograms for P in Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina
FIGURE 2. RUs histograms for P. achalensis. The white columns show the distributions of available RUs, whereas grey columns show the distributions of used RUs.
Potential impacts of future warming and land use changes on intra-urban heat exposure in Houston Texas
<p>Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (T<sub>min</sub>) and daily maximum heat index (HI<sub>max</sub>) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (T<sub>min</sub>) and 7.3°C (HI<sub>max</sub>) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (T<sub>min</sub>) and 2.5°C (HI<sub>max</sub>), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (T<sub>min</sub>) and 8.3°C (HI<sub>max</sub>), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat.</p>
Data for the "Deforestation could push Amazonia close to a tipping point under future climate change." paper
<p>Matlab datafiles for the output of the HYBRID-ICBL <span>coupled land surface-atmosphere single column model presented in the "Deforestation could push Amazonia close to a tipping point under future climate change"</span></p> <p><span>Values are daily mean values and their names are self explanatory as follows.</span></p>
Future changes in Tropical Cyclone activity due GhGs and the atmospheric effect of future aerosols
<p>This dataset compiles the output of selected fields of high resolutions E3SM experiments performed to decouple the effects of changes in GhGs and the atmospheric effect of future aerosols on the projected changes in tropical cyclone activity.</p> <p>The study describing these experiemnts was submitted to publication with the title "The Atmospheric Effect of Aerosols on Future Tropical Cyclone Frequency and Precipitation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model"</p> <p>The full dataset is available at NERSC's HPSS. Please contact the Dr. Sena at anasena@iastate.edu for more information on how to obtain them.</p>
Data for study " Future Climate Change Impacts on Rice in Uttar Pradesh, India's Most Populous Agrarian State "
<p>Crop management practicrs used to calibrate the DSSAT for Uttar Pradesh. The rice genetic coefficients for various rice varieties/ cultivars are also available here.</p>
A companion dataset to the paper Scenarios of future climate zone changes in Europe based on EURO-CORDEX regional model ensemble by Holtanová et al., to be submitted to Regional Environmental Change
<p>The content of the dataset is described in the metadata.txt file. </p>
Data products from "An 85-year record of glacier change and impacts on future projections for Kennicott and Root Glaciers, Alaska"
<p>DEMs, orthophotos, glacier outlines, historical velocity, model outputs, and ice-penetrating radar data from "An 85-year record of glacier change and impacts on future projections for Kennicott and Root Glaciers, Alaska". File structure is shown in the readme file.</p>
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These curated guides explain access requirements, typical timelines, costs, and reuse considerations for widely used research datasets.
Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
ABODe is a University of Edinburgh DataShare dataset for behavior classification in group-housed mice using home-cage video, identities, bounding boxes, ground-plate positions, and annotator labels.
DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.