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opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Predicting community rank-abundance distributions under current and future climates

Understanding influences of environmental change on biodiversity requires consideration of more than just species richness. Here we present a novel framework for understanding possible changes in species' abundance structures within communities under climate change. We demonstrate this using comprehensive survey and environmental data from 1,748 woody plant communities across southeast Queensland, Australia, to model rank-abundance distributions (RADs) under current and future climates. Under current conditions, the models predicted RADs consistent with the region's dominant vegetation types. We demonstrate that under a business as usual climate scenario, total abundance and richness may decline in subtropical rainforest and shrubby heath, and increase in dry sclerophyll forests. Despite these opposing trends, we predicted evenness in the distribution of abundances between species to increase in all vegetation types. By assessing the information rich, multidimensional RAD, we show that climate-driven changes to community abundance structures will likely vary depending on the current composition and environmental context.

opencc-zeroDec 2014View details →

Data from: Variation of xylem vessel diameters across a climate gradient: insight from a reciprocal transplant experiment with a widespread boreal tree

Xylem vessel diameters represent an important plant hydraulic trait to ensure sufficient water supply from the roots to the leaves. The ability to adjust the hydraulic pathway to environmental cues is key in order to satisfy transpirational demands and maximize growth and survival. We evaluated the variability of vessel diameters in trembling aspen in a reciprocal transplant experiment. We tested six provenances from three ecological regions of North America planted at four test sites in western Canada. All test sites were established at the same time with the same provenances arranged in a randomized complete block design. Vessel diameter showed a strong interaction of population and test site suggesting a high degree of phenotypic plasticity in this trait. Gaussian kernel density estimates support plastic as well as genetic contributions in vessel diameter control trending from bimodal distributions at the most northern test site towards unimodal distributions at the warmest and mildest test site. Furthermore, we used test site-specific climate data in form of a 2-year, 5-year and 10-year average of 21 directly and derived climatic variables and found that average site-specific vessel diameters correlated strongly with summer moisture availability. A previously found negative relationship with vessel diameter and tree height in central Alberta was also found at two other boreal test sites but reversed at a wetter and milder sub-boreal test site. In summary, vessel diameters were highly plastic in response to different environments and varied with summer moisture availability. The variability of vessel diameter and tree height correlations suggests that vessel diameter alone cannot serve as a reliable proxy for long-term growth performance beyond boreal environments. Instead, selecting aspen populations with a high degree of plasticity in this trait appears to be the safest option for assisted migration and seed transfer programmes under climate change.

Data from: Convergent local adaptation to climate in distantly related conifers

When confronted with an adaptive challenge, such as extreme temperature, closely related species frequently evolve similar phenotypes using the same genes. Although such repeated evolution is thought to be less likely in highly polygenic traits and distantly related species, this has not been tested at the genome scale. We performed a population genomic study of convergent local adaptation among two distantly related species, lodgepole pine and interior spruce. We identified a suite of 47 genes, enriched for duplicated genes, with variants associated with spatial variation in temperature or cold hardiness in both species, providing evidence of convergent local adaptation despite 140 million years of separate evolution. These results show that adaptation to climate can be genetically constrained, with certain key genes playing nonredundant roles.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Thermal sensitivity of a Neotropical amphibian (Engystomops pustulosus) and its vulnerability to climate change

A species' thermal sensitivity and its exposure to climate variation are key components in the prediction of its vulnerability to climate change. We tested the thermal sensitivity of a tropical amphibian that lives in a mild constant climate in which the thermal tolerance range is expected to closely match the experienced environmental temperature. The air temperature that this species is exposed to varies between 21.9 and 31.6°C with an annual mean of 27.2°C. We estimated the microhabitat water temperature variation under vegetation shade, which buffers the temperature by 1.8°C in relation to that of the air, and with open canopy, where the water was 1.9°C warmer than the air temperature. With broods of tadpoles split into five treatments (15°C, 21°C, 28°C, 31°C, and 33°C), we estimated the critical thermal maximum (CTMax) and critical thermal minimum (CTMin) after at least 7 days of acclimation. Both CTMax (42.3°C) and CTMin (11.8°C) were more extreme than the temperature range estimated for the field. We estimated the optimum temperature (To = 28.8°C) and the thermal performance breadth (range: 23.3–34.1°C) based on growth rate (g/day). The animals were able to acclimate more extensively to cold than to warm temperatures. These performance curve traits closely matched the air temperature. The estimated vulnerability varied according to the microhabitat prediction model used. The combination of tadpole data on thermal sensitivity and macro- and microhabitat variation provides a necessary framework to understand the effects of climate change on tropical amphibians.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Fire-regime complacency and sensitivity to centennial- through millennial-scale climate change in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, Colorado, U.S.A.

1. Key uncertainties in anticipating future fire regimes are their sensitivity to climate change, and the degree to which climate will impact fire regimes directly, through increasing the probability of fire, versus indirectly, through changes in vegetation and landscape flammability. 2. We studied the sensitivity of subalpine forest fire regimes (i.e., fire frequency, fire severity) to previously documented climate variability over the past 6000 years, utilizing pollen and macroscopic charcoal from high-resolution lake-sediment records in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. We combined data from the four lakes to provide composite records of vegetation and fire history within a 200 km2 study area. 3. Rates of forest burning were relatively complacent to millennial-scale summer cooling and decreased effective moisture. Mean return intervals between fire episodes, defined over 500-year periods, generally varied between 150-250 years, consistent with tree-ring-based estimates spanning recent centuries. Variability around these long-term means, however, was significantly correlated with variability in summer moisture (i.e., more burning with drier summers), inferred from existing lake-level and supporting paleoenvironmental records. 4. The most pronounced change in fire regimes was in response to decreased subalpine forest density ca. 2400 cal. year BP, itself a response to regional cooling. This indirect impact of climate was followed by a decrease in charcoal production per fire, a proxy for crown-fire severity, while the long-term rate of burning remained unchanged. Over the last 1500 years, increased summer evaporation and drought frequency were associated with increased fire severity, highlighting a direct link between fire and climate. 5. Synthesis: Subalpine forest fire history reveals complacency and sensitivity of fire regimes to changing vegetation and hydroclimate over the past 6000 years. Complacency is highlighted by non-varying fire frequency over millennia. Sensitivity is evident through changes in biomass burned per fire (and inferred fire severity), in response to climate-induced changes in forest density and, more recently, increased summer drought. Overall, the paleo record suggests that (i) fire severity may be more responsive to climate change than fire frequency in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, and (ii) the indirect impacts of climate on vegetation and fuels are important mechanisms determining fire-regime response to climate change.

Data from: Climate, demography, and zoogeography predict introgression thresholds in Salmonid hybrid zones in Rocky Mountain streams

Among the many threats posed by invasions of nonnative species is introgressive hybridization, which can lead to the genomic extinction of native taxa. This phenomenon is regarded as common and perhaps inevitable among native cutthroat trout and introduced rainbow trout in western North America, despite that these taxa naturally co-occur in some locations. We conducted a synthetic analysis of 13,315 genotyped fish from 558 sites by building logistic regression models using data from geospatial stream databases and from 12 published studies of hybridization to assess whether environmental covariates could explain levels of introgression between westslope cutthroat trout and rainbow trout in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains. A consensus model performed well (AUC, 0.78–0.86; classification success, 72–82%; 10-fold cross validation, 70–82%) and predicted that rainbow trout introgression was significantly associated with warmer water temperatures, larger streams, proximity to warmer habitats and to recent sources of rainbow trout propagules, presence within the historical range of rainbow trout, and locations further east. Assuming that water temperatures will continue to rise in response to climate change and that levels of introgression outside the historical range of rainbow trout will equilibrate with those inside that range, we applied six scenarios across a 55,234-km stream network that forecast 9.5–74.7% declines in the amount of habitat occupied by westslope cutthroat trout populations of conservation value, but not the wholesale loss of such populations. We conclude that introgression between these taxa is predictably related to environmental conditions, many of which can be manipulated to foster largely genetically intact populations of westslope cutthroat trout and help managers prioritize conservation activities.

Data from: Climate constrains lake community and ecosystem responses to introduced predators

Human activities have resulted in rising temperatures and the introduction or extirpation of top predators worldwide. Both processes generate cascading impacts throughout food webs and can jeopardize important ecosystem services. We examined the impact of fish stocking on communities and ecosystems in California mountain lakes across an elevation (temperature and dissolved organic carbon) gradient to determine how trophic cascades and ecosystem function vary with climate. Here, we show that the impact of fish on the pelagic consumer-to-producer biomass ratio strengthened at low elevation, while invertebrate community composition and benthic ecosystem rates (periphyton production and litter decomposition) were most influenced by predators at high elevation. A warming climate may therefore alter the stability of lake ecosystems by shifting the strength of top-down control by introduced predators over food web structure and function.

Data from: Spatial variation in climate mediates gene flow across an island archipelago

High levels of gene flow among partially isolated populations can overwhelm selection and limit local adaptation. This process, known as "gene swamping," can homogenize genetic diversity among populations and reduce the capacity of a species to withstand rapid environmental change. We studied brown anole lizards (Anolis sagrei) distributed across seven islands in The Bahamas. We used microsatellite markers to estimate gene flow among islands and then examined the correlation between thermal performance and island temperature. The thermal optimum for sprint performance was correlated with both mean and maximum island temperature whereas performance breadth was not correlated with any measure of temperature variation. Gene flow between islands decreased as the difference between mean island temperatures increased, even when those islands were adjacent to one another. These data suggest that phenotypic variation is the result of either 1) local genetic adaptation with selection against immigrants maintaining variation in the thermal optimum, 2) irreversible forms of adaptive plasticity such that immigrants have reduced fitness, or 3) an interaction between fixed genetic differences and plasticity. In general, the patterns of gene flow we observed suggest that local thermal environments represent important ecological filters that can mediate gene flow on relatively fine geographic scales.

Data from: A diet rich in C3 plants reveals the sensitivity of an alpine mammal to climate change

Plant-herbivore interactions provide critical insights into the mechanisms that govern the spatiotemporal distributions of organisms. These interactions are crucial to understanding the impacts of climate change, which are likely to have an effect on the population dynamics of alpine herbivores. The Royle's pika (Ochotona roylei, hereafter pika) is a lagomorph found in the western Himalaya, and is dependent on alpine plants that are at risk from climate change. As the main prey of many carnivores in the region, the pika plays a crucial role in trophic interactions. We examined topographical features, plant genera presence, and seasonal dynamics as drivers of the plant richness in the pika's diet across an elevational gradient (2600−4450 m). We identified 79 plant genera in the faecal pellets of pikas, of which 89% were forbs, > 60% were endemic to the Himalaya and 97.5% of the plant genera identified followed the C3 photosynthetic pathway. We found that during the pre-monsoon season, the plant richness of the pika's diet decreased with increasing elevation. We demonstrate that a large area of talus supports greater plant diversity and, not surprisingly, results in higher species richness in the pika's diet. However, in talus habitat with deep crevices, pikas consumed fewer plant genera suggesting they may be foraging sub-optimally due to predation risk. The continued increase in global temperature is expected to have an effect on the distribution dynamics of C3 plants and consequently influence pika diet and distribution, resulting in a significant negative cascading effect on the Himalayan ecosystem.

opencc-zeroDec 2010View details →

Data from: Climatic forcing of Quaternary deep-sea benthic communities in the North Pacific Ocean

There is a growing evidence that changes in deep-sea benthic ecosystems are modulated by climate changes, but most evidence to date comes from the North Atlantic Ocean. Here we analyze new ostracod and published foraminiferal records for the last 250,000 years on Shatsky Rise in the North Pacific Ocean. Using linear models, we evaluate statistically the ability of environmental drivers (temperature, productivity, and seasonality of productivity) to predict changes in faunal diversity, abundance and composition. These microfossil data show glacial-interglacial shifts in overall abundances and species diversities that are low during glacial intervals and high during interglacials. These patterns replicate those previously documented in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting that the climatic forcing of the deep-sea ecosystem is widespread, and possibly global in nature. However, these results also reveal differences with prior studies that probably reflect the isolated nature of Shatsky Rise as a remote oceanic plateau. Ostracod assemblages on Shatsky Rise are highly endemic but of low diversity, consistent with the limited dispersal potential of these animals. Benthic foraminifera, by contrast, have much greater dispersal ability and their assemblages at Shatsky Rise show diversities typical for deep-sea faunas in other regions. Statistical analyses also reveal ostracod–foraminferal differences in relationships between environmental drivers and biotic change. Rarefied diversity is best explained as a hump-shaped function of surface productivity in ostracods, but as having a weak and positive relationship with temperature in foraminifera. Abundance shows a positive relationship with both productivity and seasonality of productivity in foraminifera, and a hump-shaped relationship in ostracods. Finally, species composition in ostracods is influenced by both temperature and productivity, but only a temperature effect is evident in foraminifera. Though complex in detail, the global-scale link between deep-sea ecosystems and Quaternary climate changes underscores the interaction between the physical and biological components of paleoceanographical research to better understand the history of the biosphere.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Stepping inside the niche: microclimate data are critical for accurate assessment of species' vulnerability to climate change

To assess a species' vulnerability to climate change, we commonly use mapped environmental data that are coarsely resolved in time and space. Coarsely resolved temperature data are typically inaccurate at predicting temperatures in microhabitats used by an organism and may also exhibit spatial bias in topographically complex areas. One consequence of these inaccuracies is that coarsely resolved layers may predict thermal regimes at a site that exceed species' known thermal limits. In this study, we use statistical downscaling to account for environmental factors and develop high-resolution estimates of daily maximum temperatures for a 36 000 km2 study area over a 38-year period. We then demonstrate that this statistical downscaling provides temperature estimates that consistently place focal species within their fundamental thermal niche, whereas coarsely resolved layers do not. Our results highlight the need for incorporation of fine-scale weather data into species' vulnerability analyses and demonstrate that a statistical downscaling approach can yield biologically relevant estimates of thermal regimes.

Data from: Morphometric traits capture the climatically driven species turnover of 10 spruce taxa across China

This study explored the relative roles of climate and phylogenetic background in driving morphometric trait variation in 10 spruce taxa in China. The study further addressed the hypothesis that these variations are consistent with species turnover on climatic gradients. Nine morphometric traits of leaves, seed cones, and seeds for the 10 studied spruce taxa were measured at 504 sites. These data were analyzed in combination with species DNA sequences from NCBI GenBank. We detected the effects of phylogeny and climate through trait-variation-based K statistics and phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) analyses. Multivariate analyses were performed to detect trait variation along climatic gradients with species replacement. The estimated K-values for the nine studied morphometric traits ranged from 0.19 to 0.68, and the studied environmental variables explained 39–83% of the total trait variation. Trait variation tended to be determined largely by a temperature gradient varying from wet-cool climates to dry-warm summers and, additionally, by a moisture gradient. As the climate became wetter and cooler, spruce species tended to be replaced by other spruces with smaller needle leaves and seeds but larger cones and seed scales. A regression analysis showed that spruce species tended to be successively replaced by other species, along the gradient, although the trends observed within species were not necessarily consistent with the overall trend. The climatically driven replacement of the spruces in question could be well indicated by the between-species variation in morphometric traits that carry lower phylogenetic signal. Between-species variation in these traits is driven primarily by climatic factors. These species demonstrate a narrower ecological amplitude in temperature but wider ranges on the moisture gradient.

opencc-zeroDec 2012View details →

Data from: A phylogenetic analysis of the grape genus (Vitis L.) reveals broad reticulation and concurrent diversification during neogene and quaternary climate change

Background: Grapes are one of the most economically important fruit crops. There are about 60 species in the genus Vitis. The phylogenetic relationships among these species are of keen interest for the conservation and use of this germplasm. We selected 309 accessions from 48 Vitis species,varieties, and outgroups, examined ~11 kb (~3.4 Mb total) of aligned nuclear DNA sequences from 27 unlinked genes in a phylogenetic context, and estimated divergence times based on fossil calibrations. Results: Vitis formed a strongly supported clade. There was substantial support for species and less for the higher-level groupings (series). As estimated from extant taxa, the crown age of Vitis was 28 Ma and the divergence of subgenera (Vitis and Muscadinia) occurred at ~18 Ma. Higher clades in subgenus Vitis diverged 16 -- 5 Ma with overlapping confidence intervals, and ongoing divergence formed extant species at 12 -- 1.3 Ma. Several species had species-specific SNPs. NeighborNet analysis showed extensive reticulation at the core of subgenus Vitis representing the deeper nodes, with extensive reticulation radiating outward. Fitch Parsimony identified North America as the origin of the most recent common ancestor of extant Vitis species. Conclusions: Phylogenetic patterns suggested origination of the genus in North America, fragmentation of an ancestral range during the Miocene, formation of extant species in the late Miocene-Pleistocene, and differentiation of species in the context of Pliocene-Quaternary tectonic and climatic change. Nuclear SNPs effectively resolved relationships at and below the species level in grapes and rectified several misclassifications of accessions in the repositories. Our results challenge current higher-level classifications, reveal the abundance of genetic diversity in the genus that is potentially available for crop improvement, and provide a valuable resource for species delineation, germplasm conservation and use.

Data from: The impacts of climate change and disturbance on spatio-temporal trajectories of biodiversity in a temperate forest landscape

The ongoing changes to climate challenge the conservation of forest biodiversity. Yet, in thermally limited systems, such as temperate forests, not all species groups might be affected negatively. Furthermore, simultaneous changes in the disturbance regime have the potential to mitigate climate-related impacts on forest species. Here, we (i) investigated the potential long-term effect of climate change on biodiversity in a mountain forest landscape, (ii) assessed the effects of different disturbance frequencies, severities and sizes and (iii) identified biodiversity hotspots at the landscape scale to facilitate conservation management. We employed the model iLand to dynamically simulate the tree vegetation on 13 865 ha of the Kalkalpen National Park in Austria over 1000 years, and investigated 36 unique combinations of different disturbance and climate scenarios. We used simulated changes in tree cover and composition as well as projected temperature and precipitation to predict changes in the diversity of Araneae, Carabidae, ground vegetation, Hemiptera, Hymenoptera, Mollusca, saproxylic beetles, Symphyta and Syrphidae, using empirical response functions. Our findings revealed widely varying responses of biodiversity indicators to climate change. Five indicators showed overall negative effects, with Carabidae, saproxylic beetles and tree species diversity projected to decrease by more than 33%. Six indicators responded positively to climate change, with Hymenoptera, Mollusca and Syrphidae diversity projected to increase more than twofold. Disturbances were generally beneficial for the studied indicators of biodiversity. Our results indicated that increasing disturbance frequency and severity have a positive effect on biodiversity, while increasing disturbance size has a moderately negative effect. Spatial hotspots of biodiversity were currently found in low- to mid-elevation areas of the mountainous study landscape, but shifted to higher-elevation zones under changing climate conditions. Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight that intensifying disturbance regimes may alleviate some of the impacts of climate change on forest biodiversity. However, the projected shift in biodiversity hotspots is a challenge for static conservation areas. In this regard, overlapping hotspots under current and expected future conditions highlight priority areas for robust conservation management.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population-level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype-environment association analysis we identify potential climate-adaptive SNPs in our genomic dataset and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.

Data from: Can ecosystem functioning be maintained despite climate-driven shifts in species composition? Insights from novel marine forests

1. Climate change is driving a redistribution of species and reconfiguration of ecological communities at a global scale. Persistent warming in many regions has caused species to extend their geographical ranges into new habitats, with thermally-tolerant species often becoming competitively dominant over species with colder affinities. Although these climate-driven changes in species abundance and diversity are well documented, their ecosystem-level implications are poorly understood, and resolving whether reconfigured communities can maintain fundamental ecosystem functions represents a pressing challenge in an increasingly warmer world. 2. Here, we investigated how climate-driven substitutions of foundation species influence processes associated with carbon and nutrient cycling (biomass production, detritus flow, herbivory, decomposition) by comparing two habitat-forming kelp species with contrasting thermal affinities. We examined the wider consequences of the observed (and predicted) emergence of novel marine forests in the NE Atlantic, which are expected to become more dominated by range-expanding, warm-temperate kelps. 3. Warm-temperate kelps both accumulated and released 80% more biomass than the cold-temperate species despite being taxonomically closely-related and morphologically similar. Furthermore, the warm-temperate species accumulated biomass and released detritus year-round, whereas the cold-temperate species did so during short, discrete periods. The warm-temperate kelps supported higher densities of invertebrate grazers and were a preferred food source. Finally, their detritus decomposed 6.5 times faster, despite supporting comparable numbers of detritivores. Overall, our results indicate an important shift in the cycling of organic matter in kelp forests along parts of the NE Atlantic coastline following climate-driven expansion of a warm-affinity kelp, with novel forests supplying large amounts of temporally-continuous—yet highly labile—organic matter. 4. Synthesis. Collectively, our results show that, like species invasions, climate-driven range expansions and consequent shifts in the identity of dominant species can modify a wide range of important ecosystem processes. However, alterations in overall ecosystem functioning may be relatively limited where foundation species share similar ecological and functional traits.

Data from: Climate-related adaptive genetic variation and population structure in natural stands of Norway spruce in the South-Eastern Alps

Forest trees dominate many Alpine landscapes that are currently exposed to changing climate. Norway spruce is one of the most important conifer species of the Italian Alps, and natural populations are found across steep environmental gradients with large differences in temperature and moisture availability. This study seeks to determine and quantify patterns of genetic diversity in natural populations toward understanding adaptive responses to changing climate. Across the Italian species range, 24 natural stands were sampled with a major focus on the Eastern Italian Alps. Sampled trees were genotyped for 384 selected single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 285 genes. A wide array of potential candidate genes was tested for correlation with climatic parameters. To minimize false-positive association between genotype and climate, population structure was investigated. Pairwise F ST estimates between sampled populations ranged between 0.000 and 0.075, with the highest values involving the two disjoint populations, Valdieri, on the western Italian Alps, and Campolino, the most southern population on the Apennines. Despite considerable genetic admixture among populations, both Bayesian and multivariate approach identified four genetic clusters. Selection scans revealed five F ST outliers, and the environmental association analysis detected ten SNPs associated to one or more climatic variables. Overall, 13 potentially adaptive loci were identified, three of which have been reported in a previous study on the same species conducted on a broader geographical scale. In our study, precipitation, more than temperature, was often associated with genotype; therefore, it appears as the most important environmental variable associated with the high sensitivity of Norway spruce to soil water supply. These findings provide relevant information for understanding and quantifying climate change effects on this species and its ability to genetically adapt.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Phylogeography in continuous space: coupling species distribution models and circuit theory to assess the effect of contiguous migration at different climatic periods on genetic differentiation in Busseola fusca (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Current population genetic models fail to cope with genetic differentiation for species with large, contiguous and heterogeneous distribution. We show that in such a case, genetic differentiation can be predicted at equilibrium by circuit theory, where conductance corresponds to abundance in species distribution models (SDM). Circuit-SDM approach was used for the phylogeographic study of the lepidopteran cereal stemborer Busseola fusca Füller (Noctuidae) across sub-Saharan Africa. Species abundance was surveyed across its distribution range. SDM models were optimized and selected by cross validation. Relationship between observed matrices of genetic differentiation between individuals, and matrices of resistance distance was assessed through Mantel tests and redundancy discriminant analyses (RDA). A total of 628 individuals from 130 localities in 17 countries were genotyped at 7 microsatellite loci. Six population clusters were found based on a Bayesian analysis. The eastern margin of Dahomey Gap between East and West Africa was the main factor of genetic differentiation. The SDM projections at present, last interglacial and last glacial maximum periods were used for estimation of circuit resistance between locations of genotyped individuals. For all periods of time, when using either all individuals or only East-African individuals, partial Mantel r and RDA analyses conditioning on geographic distance were found significant. Under future projections (year 2080), partial r and RDA significance were different. From this study, it is concluded that analytical solutions provided by circuit theory are useful for the evolutionary management of populations and for phylogeographic analysis when coalescence times are not accessible by approximate Bayesian simulations.

Data from: Climate-driven hydrological variability determines inter-annual changes in stream invertebrate community assembly

Although flow regime is one of the major drivers of riverine communities, not much is known about how inter-annual variability and extremes of flow influence community assembly mechanisms. We used data on benthic macroinvertebrates and modelled flow regimes in 23 near-pristine boreal streams to assess how community assembly mechanisms and species occupancy varied in response to inter-annual variability in flow conditions across 11 successive years encompassing extreme (both low and high) flow events. A null model approach was used to test whether deterministic or stochastic processes dominated community assembly and how much regional (among-stream) flow variability contributed to community variability (β-diversity). Mean daily flow and the greatest rate of flow rise were the strongest flow-related descriptors of invertebrate community composition. Communities were differentially assembled depending on the direction of change in flow magnitude: in high-flow years, communities were more similar than expected by chance, while at low flows they tended to be more dissimilar than expected. Beta-diversity of macroinvertebrate communities was related to among-stream flow variability only at high flows. Common species correlated strongly with flow variability and contributed most to variation in β-diversity, suggesting that changes in assembly mechanisms are mainly driven by common species. While homogenization of communities in high-flow years reflected increased species occupancies and environmental sorting, increased turnover during low flows likely resulted from stochastic extinctions and dispersal limitation. Our findings suggest that extreme hydrological events exert a strong control over stream invertebrate community assembly, and their effect may be even more profound in the future as high and low-flow spells are expected to occur more frequently, not allowing time for communities to recover.

Data from: Phenological responses of 215 moth species to interannual climate variation in the Pacific Northwest from 1895 through 2013

Climate change has caused shifts in the phenology and distributions of many species but comparing responses across species is challenged by inconsistencies in the methodology and taxonomic and temporal scope of individual studies. Natural history collections offer a rich source of data for examining phenological shifts for a large number of species. We paired specimen records from Pacific Northwest insect collections to climate data to analyze the responses of 215 moth species to interannual climate variation over a period of 119 years (1895–2013) during which average annual temperatures have increased in the region. We quantified the effects of late winter/early spring temperatures, averaged annually across the region, on dates of occurrence of adults, taking into account the effects of elevation, latitude, and longitude. We assessed whether species-specific phenological responses varied with adult flight season and larval diet breadth. Collection dates were significantly earlier in warmer years for 36.3% of moth species, and later for 3.7%. Species exhibited an average phenological advance of 1.9 days/°C, but species-specific shifts ranged from an advance of 10.3 days/°C to a delay of 10.6 days/°C. More spring-flying species shifted their phenology than summer- or fall-flying species. These responses did not vary among groups defined by larval diet breadth. The highly variable phenological responses to climate change in Pacific Northwest moths agree with other studies on Lepidoptera and suggest that it will remain difficult to accurately forecast which species and ecological interactions are most likely to be affected by climate change. Our results also underscore the value of natural history collections as windows into long-term ecological trends.