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284 results for “Future climate”
Data from: Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty
Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica. Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.
Data from: Predicting community rank-abundance distributions under current and future climates
Understanding influences of environmental change on biodiversity requires consideration of more than just species richness. Here we present a novel framework for understanding possible changes in species' abundance structures within communities under climate change. We demonstrate this using comprehensive survey and environmental data from 1,748 woody plant communities across southeast Queensland, Australia, to model rank-abundance distributions (RADs) under current and future climates. Under current conditions, the models predicted RADs consistent with the region's dominant vegetation types. We demonstrate that under a business as usual climate scenario, total abundance and richness may decline in subtropical rainforest and shrubby heath, and increase in dry sclerophyll forests. Despite these opposing trends, we predicted evenness in the distribution of abundances between species to increase in all vegetation types. By assessing the information rich, multidimensional RAD, we show that climate-driven changes to community abundance structures will likely vary depending on the current composition and environmental context.
Data from: Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures
Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million € per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change.
Data from: From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants
Climate change is projected to influence the genetic resources of plant species. Recent research has examined genetic diversity patterns under current climate conditions, with little attention to the future genetic consequences for species. In this study, we combined ecological niche modeling and population genetic approaches to project future changes in genetic diversity using plastid and nuclear DNA and reconstructed distribution patterns of three circumboreal plants (Chamaedaphne calyculata, Linnaea borealis ssp. borealis, and Pedicularis sceptrum-carolinum ssp. sceptrum-carolinum) in the last glacial maximum. We found that circumboreal plants could potentially lose their geographic ranges in the future (2070; 35–52% in RCP 4.5 (representative concentration pathways), 37–53% in RCP 6.0, and 56–69% in RCP 8.5), only slightly compensated by a predicted range gain of 18–33% (across the three RCPs). It is expected that future genetic diversity level could remain similar or lower than the present level. On the other hand, the homogeneity of the genetic background—a lack of admixture and domination of one gene pool in most populations of C. calyculata and L. borealis ssp. borealis—was predicted to become more pronounced in the future. Combining the paleoecological niche modeling and genetic data revealed, more precisely, the climate refugia for circumboreal plants in the Alps, central Asia, Beringia, and southern North America and the macrorefugia more restricted to the northern part of Eurasia and North America, reaching the arctic zone.
Data from: The interactive effects of photoperiod and future climate change may have negative consequences for a wide-spread invasive insect
Increasing global temperatures may affect many ectotherms, including insects, although increasing temperatures are thought to benefit future populations through effects on adult size, fecundity, or populations. However, the way that temperature may interact with photoperiod is not well understood. We study this problem using the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, an important worldwide invasive whose future spread is thought to be affected by changes in climate. We investigated how mass at maturity varied with temperature (21°C, 25°C) across short and long photoperiods, using laboratory populations from the extreme ends of this species' current US range (Florida, New Jersey). These values were used to parametrize a model to predict optimal mass based on development times; the results of a second laboratory experiment under the same treatments were compared to model predictions. Warmer conditions shortened development times in females from all locations leading to either higher or lower mass depending on the photoperiod. We then used published mass–fecundity relationships to determine the consequences of mass on fecundity under our conditions. Under the majority of scenarios warming decreased predicted fecundity under long photoperiods, but proved beneficial under short photoperiods because the costs of fast development were offset by increased survival in the face of late-season freezing risk. However, fecundity was always low under short photoperiods, so the marginal benefit of warming appears negligible given its cost under long photoperiods when the majority of reproduction occurs. Thus, with northern range expansion, where colder weather currently limits this species, detrimental effects of warming on fecundity are likely, similar to those identified for mass. Unlike previous work that has shown benefits of a warming planet to insects like Aedes albopictus, our work predicts lower performance under warming conditions in summer across the current range, a prediction with implications for range expansion, disease dynamics and populations.
FIGURE 1 in Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina
FIGURE 1. General Niche-Environment System Factor Analysis (GNESFA) and Factor Analysis of the Niche, Taking the Environment as the Reference (FANTER) for Pristidactylus species. Left column: grey points show the distribution of the RUs (here the pixels) on the axes found by the analysis and black points correspond to the RUs used by the species. Right column: correlations between the environmental variables and the axes. References: P. achalensis A–B; P. nigroiugulus C–D.
FIGURE 5 in Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina
FIGURE 5. Area models for suitability habitat from the averaged replications output for: P. achalensis, A) Present model = 5008.55 km², B) Model for 2050 RCP 45 = 4054.00 km², C) Model for 2050 RCP 85 = 2677.83 km²; P. nigroiugulus, 2) Present model = 71957.34 km², E) Model for 2050 RCP 45 = 56162.45 km², F) Model for 2050 RCP 85 = 38501.27 km². References: Country / province names, protected areas perimeters dashed-green lines, protected areas intersected with suitable areas filled in solid green, localities in red dots, and defined accessible area (M) in the upper left box.
FIGURE 4 in Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina
FIGURE 4. True skill statistic (TSS) performed on the replicates for each species. References: mod, number of model replicate; values close to 1 indicates perfect agreement, values near zero indicates a performance no better than random.
FIGURE 3. RUs histograms for P in Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina
FIGURE 3. RUs histograms for P. nigroiugulus. The white columns show the distributions of available RUs, whereas grey columns show the distributions of used RUs.
FIGURE 2. RUs histograms for P in Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina
FIGURE 2. RUs histograms for P. achalensis. The white columns show the distributions of available RUs, whereas grey columns show the distributions of used RUs.
Data for the "Deforestation could push Amazonia close to a tipping point under future climate change." paper
<p>Matlab datafiles for the output of the HYBRID-ICBL <span>coupled land surface-atmosphere single column model presented in the "Deforestation could push Amazonia close to a tipping point under future climate change"</span></p> <p><span>Values are daily mean values and their names are self explanatory as follows.</span></p>
Dataset for "Contributions of Parameterized Gravity Waves and Resolved Equatorial Waves to the QBO Period in a Future Climate of CESM2" by Lee et al. (2024)
Open the record for dataset details and reuse information.
Data for study " Future Climate Change Impacts on Rice in Uttar Pradesh, India's Most Populous Agrarian State "
<p>Crop management practicrs used to calibrate the DSSAT for Uttar Pradesh. The rice genetic coefficients for various rice varieties/ cultivars are also available here.</p>
Dataset and code for "Evident decrease in future European soil moisture in the Kiel Climate Model grand ensemble"
<p>Here, you only have the processed data. Most calculations have been made with CDO (version 2.0.6 or 1.9.9). The history of commands made can be seen in the file with a simple ncdump -h file. If you need to see more data, please contact the corresponding author.</p>
A companion dataset to the paper Scenarios of future climate zone changes in Europe based on EURO-CORDEX regional model ensemble by Holtanová et al., to be submitted to Regional Environmental Change
<p>The content of the dataset is described in the metadata.txt file. </p>
Future wave climate in the Mediterranean Sea and associated uncertainty from an ensemble of 31 GCM-RCM wave simulations
<p>The data provided is used in a study aimed at assessing future changes in the Mediterranean wave climate. A total of 31 GCM-RCM simulations were used to characterize the wave climate during the historical (1979-2005), mid-century (2034-2060), and end-century (2074-2100) periods. Changes in seasonal significant wave height (Hs) and peak period (Tp) wave parameters are evaluated for both the mean and intense (quantile 0.95) wave climate, along with the shift in wave direction (wave peak dominant direction, θp) for sea states characterized as intense. The robustness of the climate change signal is evaluated following the guidelines outlined in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Additionally, using a wave hindcast as a reference, the changes in future extreme events are assessed by fitting a GEV to a unique and coherent set of bias-corrected annual maxima from each model.</p> <p>We provide data used to obtain the results of our study, comprising: 1) wave climate statistics for Hs, Tp, and θp for each model and each period studied; 2) two sets of annual maxima distribution for each model, which were bias-corrected assuming that the set of extreme events follows either a Gumbel distribution or a GEV distribution. For more details on the methods to obtain these files describing wave climate statistical as used in the study, please refer to Toomey et al., 2024: "Future wave climate in the Mediterranean Sea and associated uncertainty from an ensemble of GCM-RCM wave simulations."</p>
Combined Effects of Future Urban Growth and Climate Change on Irrigation Water Demand in Central Arizona
<p>This dataset contains the simulation results of the combined effects of future urban growth and climate change on irrigation water use in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area, central Arizona. The simulation is conducted with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at 1-km, hourly resolution from 1981-2100 and aggregated to 30-yr average in this dataset. </p> <p>The 30-yr average results are compressed and organized into three files: <strong>Baseline</strong>, <strong>ICLUS2050</strong>, and <strong>ICLUS2100</strong>. The Baseline file contains results using the historical land cover map (year 2010). The <strong>ICLUS2050</strong> and <strong>ICLUS2100</strong> contain results using future land cover maps. The filename of modeling results contains the associated land cover and climate change scenario as follows: "fluxes.irri.ICLUS_<em>$YEAR</em>_<em>$LCSCE</em>.<em>$CLSCE.$GCM</em>.nc", where <em>$YEAR</em> is the year of land cover change projection (2050 or 2100), <em>$LCSCE</em> is the land cover change scenario (SSP2 or SSP5), <em>$CLSCE</em> is the climate change scenario (RCP45 or RCP85), and <em>$GCM</em> is the GCM used (eight in total) </p> <p>More details can be found on the associated paper (this record will be updated when the paper is published):</p> <p>Wang, Z., and Vivoni, E.R. 2021. Combined Effects of Future Urban Growth and Climate Change on Irrigation Water Demand in Central Arizona. <em>Journal of the American Water Resources Association (in revision)</em>.</p>
Trade-offs for climate-smart forestry in Europe under uncertain future climate
<p>Accompanying data to the manuscript "Trade-offs for climate-smart forestry in Europe under uncertain future climate" submitted to Earth's Future.</p>
Orbitrap analysed non-volatile compound data from blue swimmer crab (Portunus armatus) flesh for manuscript: "Climate-driven changes to taste and aroma determining metabolites in an economically valuable portunid (Portunus armatus) have implications for future harvesting"
<p>Accurate mass measurements of non-volatile metabolites conducted on a Q-Exactive Orbitrap LC-MS (Thermo Scientific, Scoresby, VIC, Australia) equipped with a heated electrospray ionization (H-ESI) source. Source conditions were as follows: spray voltage (positive ion 3.9 kV), sheath gas 60 (arbitrary units), auxiliary gas 10 (arbitrary units) and sweep gas 1 (arbitrary units), capillary temperature of 350 °C and auxiliary gas heating temperature of 400 °C.</p>
Data Archive of 'Hadley Cell Edge Modulates the Role of Ekman Heat Flux in a Future Climate'
<p>Output data used to create figures in ' Hadley Cell Edge Modulates the Role of Ekman Heat Flux in a Future Climate ' is archived. Original data sources from which the output data are generated are Reanalysis Products (ERA5, JRA55, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) and 8 CMIP6 model simulations.</p>
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Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
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DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
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International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.