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7 results for “Ebola outbreak”
Macroeconomic Impact of Ebola outbreaks in SSA and potential mitigation of GDP loss with prophylactic vaccination programs
<p>Introduction: Decisions about prevention of and response to Ebola outbreaks require an understanding of the macroeconomic implications of these interventions. Prophylactic vaccines hold promise to mitigate the negative economic impacts of infectious disease outbreaks. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between outbreak size and economic impact among countries with recorded Ebola outbreaks and to quantify the hypothetical benefits of prophylactic Ebola vaccination interventions in these outbreaks.</p> <p>Methods: The synthetic control method was used to estimate the causal impacts of Ebola outbreaks on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of five countries in sub-Saharan Africa that have previously experienced Ebola outbreaks between 2000 and 2016, where no vaccines were deployed. Using illustrative assumptions about vaccine coverage, efficacy, and protective immunity, the potential economic benefits of prophylactic Ebola vaccination were estimated using the number of cases in an outbreak as a key indicator.</p> <p>Results: The impact of Ebola outbreaks on the macroeconomy of the selected countries led to a decline in GDP of up to 36%, which was greatest in the third year after the onset of each outbreak and increased exponentially with the size of outbreak (i.e., number of reported cases). Over three years, the aggregate loss estimated for Sierra Leone from its 2014-2016 outbreak is estimated at 16.1 billion International$. Prophylactic vaccination could have prevented up to 89% of an outbreak’s negative impact on GDP, reducing the outbreak’s impact to as little as 1.6% of GDP lost. </p> <p>Conclusion: This study supports the case that macroeconomic returns are associated with prophylactic Ebola vaccination. Our findings support recommendations for prophylactic Ebola vaccination as a core component of prevention and response measures for global health security. </p>
Data from: Avoidable errors in the modeling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola
As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence data are used to estimate these parameters and guide policy. Some widely used modelling practices lead to potentially large errors in parameter estimates and, consequently, errors in model-based forecasts. Even more worryingly, in such situations, confidence in parameter estimates and forecasts can itself be far overestimated, leading to the potential for large errors that mask their own presence. Fortunately, straightforward and computationally inexpensive alternatives exist that avoid these problems. Here, we first use a simulation study to demonstrate potential pitfalls of the standard practice of fitting deterministic models to cumulative incidence data. Next, we demonstrate an alternative based on stochastic models fit to raw data from an early phase of 2014 West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak. We show not only that bias is thereby reduced, but that uncertainty in estimates and forecasts is better quantified and that, critically, lack of model fit is more readily diagnosed. We conclude with a short list of principles to guide the modelling response to future infectious disease outbreaks.
Community Preparedness for Outbreak Response and Readiness for Ebola Vaccination in Liberia
ClinicalTrials.gov study NCT05888649. IPD Sharing: NO. Countries: 1. Publications: 10.
Data from: Impact of the Ebola outbreak on Trypanosoma brucei gambiense infection medical activities in coastal Guinea, 2014-2015: a retrospective analysis from the Guinean national Human African Trypanosomiasis control program
Open the record for dataset details and reuse information.
Data from: Impact of the Mass Drug Administration for malaria in response to the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone
Open the record for dataset details and reuse information.
Data from: Avoidable errors in the modeling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola
Open the record for dataset details and reuse information.
Ebola virus glycoprotein variant with increased infectivity for human cells dominated the 2013-2016 outbreak
GEO Series GSE84865. Homo sapiens. 26 samples. Type: Expression profiling by high throughput sequencing.
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