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31 results for “Phenological mismatch”
Seasonal trajectories of plant-pollinator interaction networks differ following phenological mismatches along an urbanization gradient - Data and code
<p>Dataset and code used in the article "Seasonal trajectories of plant-pollinator interaction networks differ following phenological mismatches along an urbanization gradient", by A. Fisogni et al., published in Landscape and Urban Planning (2022, 226:104512, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920462200161X?via%3Dihub">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2022.104512</a>)</p>
Different currencies for calculating resource phenology result in opposite inferences about trophic mismatches
<p>Shifts in phenology are among the key responses of organisms to climate change. When rates of phenological change differ between interacting species they may result in phenological asynchrony. Studies have found conflicting patterns concerning the direction and magnitude of changes in synchrony, which have been attributed to biological factors. A hitherto overlooked additional explanation is differences in the currency used to quantify resource phenology, such as abundance and biomass. Studying an insectivorous bird, Sanderling, and its prey, we show that the median date of cumulative arthropod biomass occurred, on average, 6.9 days after the median date of cumulative arthropod abundance. In some years this difference could be as large as 21 days. For 23 years, hatch dates of Sanderlings became less synchronized with the median date of arthropod abundance, but more synchronized with the median date of arthropod biomass. The currency-specific trends can be explained by our finding that mean biomass per arthropod specimen increased with date. Using a conceptual simulation, we show that estimated rates of phenological change for abundance and biomass can differ depending on temporal shifts in the size distribution of resources. We conclude that studies of trophic mismatch based on different currencies for resource phenology can be incompatible with each other.</p>
Phenological mismatch affects individual fitness and population growth in the winter moth
<p>Climate change can severely impact species that depend on temporary resources by inducing phenological mismatches between consumer and resource seasonal timing. In the winter moth, warmer winters caused eggs to hatch before their food source, young oak leaves, became available. This phenological mismatch changed the selection on the temperature sensitivity of egg development rate. However, we know little about the fine-scale fitness consequences of phenological mismatch at the individual level and how this mismatch affects population dynamics in the winter moth. To determine the fitness consequences of mistimed egg hatching relative to timing of oak budburst, we quantified survival and pupation weight in a feeding experiment. We found that mismatch greatly increased mortality rates of freshly hatched caterpillars, as well as affecting caterpillar growth and development time. We then investigated whether these individual fitness consequences have population-level impacts by estimating the effect of phenological mismatch on population dynamics, using our long-term data (1994–2021) on relative winter moth population densities at four locations in the Netherlands. We found a significant effect of mismatch on population density with higher population growth rates in years with a smaller phenological mismatch. Our results indicate that climate change-induced phenological mismatch can incur severe individual fitness consequences that can impact population density in the wild.</p>
Different currencies for calculating resource phenology result in opposite inferences about trophic mismatches
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Phenology-informed decline risk of estuarine fishes and their prey suggests potential for future trophic mismatches
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Phenological mismatch affects individual fitness and population growth in the winter moth
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Phenological mismatch is less important than total nectar availability for checkerspot butterflies
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Data from: Phenological mismatch with trees reduces wildflower carbon budgets
Interacting species can respond differently to climate change, causing unexpected consequences. Many understory wildflowers in deciduous forests leaf out and flower in the spring when light availability is highest before overstory canopy closure. Therefore, different phenological responses by understory and overstory species to increased spring temperature could have significant ecological implications. Pairing contemporary data with historical observations initiated by Henry David Thoreau (1850s), we found that overstory tree leaf out is more responsive to increased spring temperature than understory wildflower phenology, resulting in shorter periods of high light in the understory before wildflowers are shaded by tree canopies. Because of this overstory-understory mismatch, we estimate that wildflower spring carbon budgets in the northeastern United States were 12-26% larger during Thoreau's era and project a 10-48% reduction during this century. This underappreciated phenomenon may have already reduced wildflower fitness and could lead to future population declines in these ecologically important species.
Data from: pollinators limit seed production in an early blooming rare plant: evidence of a mismatch between plant phenology and pollinator emergence
<p>The reproductive ecology of rare plants is seldom studied, yet the persistence of plant populations depends on successful mutualisms with pollinators. As atmospheric temperatures rise, phenology of plants and pollinators may become mismatched. We investigated the reproduction of <em>Trifolium barnebyi</em> (Barneby's Clover), a mat-forming perennial endemic to central Wyoming, USA that grows in the crevices of sandstone bedrock. Our objectives were to evaluate a method for monitoring changes in cover as well as assess the pollination and seed-set of <em>T. barnebyi</em>. We established five monitoring transects using a divided frame to estimate percent cover. We conducted seed-set experiments at three locations to measure self-pollination and the degree to which pollinating insects limited seed production. We used vane traps and bee bowls to capture pollinators, and examined pollen carried on bees. Percent cover along transects declined over the 4 year period and was associated with spring precipitation. <em>Trifolium barnebyi</em> did not self-pollinate and relied on pollinators to produce seeds. The number and mass of viable seeds per flower, and the number of bees captured increased as the season progressed, indicating that more and larger seeds were made when more pollinators were present. Blooming of <em>T. barnebyi</em> ranged between April and June depending on the microhabitat the plant lived in and we observed much higher seed production in later-blooming plants. Pollen from <em>T. barnebyi </em>was primarily carried by Andrena bees, although we found smaller amounts of pollen on seven other bee genera. A mismatch in timing between blooming and pollinating insect emergence could limit seed production in<em> T. barnebyi </em>if plants bloom earlier over time and bee emergence does not follow the same phenology. Rare plants can be pollinated by rare pollinators showing that conserving these pollinators is crucial for rare plants and early blooming species may be higher at risk.</p>
Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits (Parus major)
<p></p><p> Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit (Parus major), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection. Here, we show that selection on seasonal timing indeed weakened significantly over the past two decades as increases in late spring temperatures have slowed down. Consequently, there has been no further advancement in the date of peak caterpillar food abundance, while great tit phenology has continued to advance, thereby weakening the phenological mismatch. We thus show that the relationships between temperature, phenologies of prey and predator, and selection on predator phenology are robust, also in times of a slowdown of warming. Using projected temperatures from a large ensemble of climate simulations that take natural climate variability into account, we show that prey phenology is again projected to advance faster than great tit phenology in the coming decades, and therefore that long-term global warming will intensify phenological mismatches. </p><p></p>
Effects of phenological mismatch under warming are modified by community context
<p>Climate change is altering the relative timing of species interactions by shifting when species first appear in communities and modifying the duration organisms spend in each developmental stage. However, community contexts, such as intraspecific competition and alternative resource species, can prolong shortened windows of availability and may mitigate the effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Using a combination of laboratory experiments and dynamic simulations, we quantified how the effects of phenological shifts in Drosophila-parasitoid interactions differed with concurrent changes in temperature, intraspecific competition, and the presence of alternative host species. Our study confirmed that warming shortens the window of host susceptibility. However, the presence of alternative host species sustained interaction persistence across a broader range of phenological shifts than pairwise interactions by increasing the degree of temporal overlap with suitable development stages between hosts and parasitoids. Irrespective of phenological shifts, parasitism rates declined under warming due to reduced parasitoid performance, which limited the ability of community context to manage temporally mismatched interactions. These results demonstrate that the ongoing decline in insect diversity may exacerbate the effects of phenological shifts in ecological communities under future global warming temperatures.</p>
Data from: Phenological mismatches mitigate the ecological impact of a biological invader on amphibian communities
<p>Data and code for the manuscript entitled "Phenological mismatches mitigate the ecological impact of a biological invader on amphibian communities" for Ecological Applications (2024). <br><br><br><br>The raw sequencing data was submitted to NCBI’s Sequence Read Archive (SRA) under BioProject number PRJNA1023717 (https://dataview.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/object/PRJNA1023717?reviewer=rciv7kme2qq5vpcnqqog4vjioo). </p>
Effects of phenological mismatch under warming are modified by community context
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Data from: Spring ephemeral <em>Erythronium umbilicatum</em> may not be vulnerable to phenological mismatch with overstory trees
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Data from: Phenological mismatch with trees reduces wildflower carbon budgets
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Anatomy of a range contraction: Flow-phenology mismatches threaten salmonid fishes near their trailing edge
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Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits (Parus major)
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Data from: pollinators limit seed production in an early blooming rare plant: evidence of a mismatch between plant phenology and pollinator emergence
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Data from: When spring ephemerals fail to meet pollinators: mechanism of phenological mismatch and its impact on plant reproduction
The flowering phenology of early-blooming plants is largely determined by snowmelt timing in high-latitude and high-altitude ecosystems. When the synchrony of flowering and pollinator emergence is disturbed by climate change, seed production may be restricted due to insufficient pollination success. We revealed the mechanism of phenological mismatch between a spring ephemeral (Corydalis ambigua) and its pollinator (overwintered bumble bees), and its impact on plant reproduction, based on 19 years of monitoring and a snow removal experiment in a cool-temperate forest in northern Japan. Early snowmelt increased the risk of phenological mismatch under natural conditions. Seed production was limited by pollination success over the three years of pollination experiment and decreased when flowering occurred prior to bee emergence. Similar trends were detected on modification of flowering phenology through snow removal. Following snowmelt, the length of the pre-flowering period strongly depended on the ambient surface temperature, ranging from 4 days (at >7ºC) to 26 days (at 2.5ºC). Flowering onset was explained with an accumulated surface degree-day model. Bumble bees emerged when soil temperature reached 6ºC, which was predictable by an accumulated soil degree-day model, although foraging activity after emergence might depend on air temperature. These results indicate that phenological mismatch tends to occur when snow melts early but subsequent soil warming progresses slowly. Thus, modification of the snowmelt regime could be a major driver disturbing spring phenology in northern ecosystems.
Data from: Phenological mismatch drives selection on elevation, but not on slope, of breeding time plasticity in a wild songbird
Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism for populations to respond to fluctuating environments, yet may be insufficient to adapt to a directionally changing environment. To study whether plasticity can evolve under current climate change, we quantified selection and genetic variation in both the elevation (RNE) and slope (RNS) of the breeding time reaction norm in a long-term (1973–2016) study population of great tits (Parus major). The optimal RNE (the caterpillar biomass peak date regressed against the temperature used as cue by great tits) changed over time, whereas the optimal RNS did not. Concordantly, we found strong directional selection on RNE, but not RNS, of egg-laying date in the second third of the study period; this selection subsequently waned, potentially due to increased between-year variability in optimal laying dates. We found individual and additive genetic variation in RNE but, contrary to previous studies on our population, not in RNS. The predicted and observed evolutionary change in RNE were, however, marginal, due to low heritability and the sex limitation of laying date. We conclude that adaptation to climate change can only occur via micro-evolution of RNE, but this will necessarily be slow and potentially hampered by increased variability in phenotypic optima.
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