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27 results for “Source-sink”
Source-Sink Dynamics of Garlic Mustard Invasion at Harvard Forest 2004-2006
We are investigating the role of disturbance history, source-sink metapopulation dynamics, and genetic adaptation to different canopy environments in the invasion success of Alliaria petiolata in the New England understory. In these studies, we employ a combination of population-level experiments, metapopulation studies, and landscape-level historical analyses. We have initiated a statewide survey of forested locations to determine the presence and absence of garlic mustard with respect to major pathways of invasion via past and present habitat disturbances. More explicit spatial analyses will test whether past sites of open canopy could have acted as corridors for the spread of invasive populations to present locations. This broad analysis will enable us to evaluate the generality of emerging conclusions from our population-level studies for predicting the broad-scale factors controlling the distribution, pattern and abundance of non-native species. At the population-level, we have begun long term demographic modeling of A. petiolata and experiments to test for habitat-specific natural selection on physiological, phenological, and allocational traits in sites with different canopy structure (edge or understory). In long term demographic analyses, we will use matrix population models to determine the relative contributions of subpopulations in different habitats to forest invasion. In ongoing reciprocal transplant studies, we will asses whether the maternal source habitat of a propagule contributes to its germination and survival in contrasting habitats.
Supplementary material for "High turn-over rates at the upper range limit and elevational source-sink dynamics in a widespread songbird"
<p><strong>Abstract</strong></p> <p>The formation of an upper distributional range limit for species breeding along mountain slopes is often based on environmental gradients resulting in changing demographic rates towards high elevations. However, we still lack an empirical understanding of how the interplay of demographic parameters forms the upper range limit in highly mobile species. Here, we study apparent survival and within-study area dispersal over a 700 m elevational gradient in barn swallows (<em>Hirundo rustica</em>) by using 15 years of capture-mark-recapture data. Annual apparent survival of adult breeding birds decreased while breeding dispersal probability of adult females, but not males increased towards the upper range limit. Individuals at high elevations dispersed to farms situated at elevations lower than would be expected by random dispersal. These results suggest higher turn-over rates of breeding individuals at high elevations, an elevational increase in immigration and thus, within-population source-sink dynamics between low and high elevations. The formation of the upper range limit therefore is based on preference for low-elevation breeding sites and immigration to high elevations. Thus, shifts of the upper range limit are not only affected by changes in the quality of high-elevation habitats but also by factors affecting the number of immigrants produced at low elevations.</p>
Supplementary Materials to the publication Wood structure explained by complex spatial source-sink interactions
<p>Model output and visualisation scripts to the publication Wood structure explained by complex spatial source-sink interactions. A readme explains the file origin. model output files and their variables and units are described within the .R analysis code.</p>
An integrated population model reveals source-sink dynamics for competitively subordinate African wild dogs linked to anthropogenic prey depletion
<ol> <li>Many African large carnivore populations are declining due to decline of the herbivore populations on which they depend. The densities of apex carnivores like the lion and spotted hyena correlate strongly with prey density, but competitive subordinates like the African wild dog benefit from competitive release when the density of apex carnivores is low, so the expected effect of a simultaneous decrease in resources and dominant competitors is not obvious. </li> <li>Wild dogs in Zambia's Luangwa Valley Ecosystem occupy four ecologically similar areas with well-described differences in the densities of prey and dominant competitors, due to spatial variation in illegal offtake.</li> <li>We used long-term data to fit a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) of the demography and dynamics of wild dogs in these four regions. The IPM used Leslie projection to link a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model of area-specific survival (allowing for individual heterogeneity in detection), a zero-inflated Poisson model of area-specific fecundity, and a state-space model of population size that used estimates from a closed mark-capture model as the counts from which (latent) population size was estimated.</li> <li>The IPM showed that both survival and reproduction were lowest in the region with the lowest density of preferred prey (puku, <em>Kobus vardonii</em>, and impala, <em>Aepyceros</em> <em>melampus</em>), despite little use of this area by lions. Survival and reproduction were highest in the region with the highest prey density, and intermediate in the two regions with intermediate prey density. The population growth rate (λ) was positive for the population as a whole, strongly positive in the region with the highest prey density, and strongly negative in the region with the lowest prey density.</li> <li>It has long been thought that the benefits of competitive release protect African wild dogs from the costs of low prey density. Our results show that the costs of prey depletion overwhelm the benefits of competitive release and cause local population decline where anthropogenic prey depletion is strong. Because competition is important in many guilds and humans are affecting resources of many types, it is likely that similarly fundamental shifts in population limitation are arising in many systems.</li> </ol>
An integrated population model reveals source-sink dynamics for competitively subordinate African wild dogs linked to anthropogenic prey depletion
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Data from: Identification of source-sink dynamics in mountain lions of the Great Basin
Natural and anthropogenic boundaries have been shown to affect population dynamics and population structure for many species with movement patterns at the landscape level. Understanding population boundaries and movement rates in the field for species that are cryptic and occur at low densities is often extremely difficult and logistically prohibitive; however genetic techniques may offer insights that have previously been unattainable. We analyzed thirteen microsatellite loci for 739 mountain lions (Puma concolor) using muscle tissue samples from individuals in the Great Basin throughout Nevada and the eastern Sierra Nevada mountain range to test the hypothesis that heterogeneous hunting pressure results in source-sink dynamics at the landscape scale. We used a combination of non-spatial and spatial model-based Bayesian clustering methods to identify genetic populations. We then used a recently developed Bayesian multilocus genotyping method to estimate asymmetrical rates of contemporary movement between those sub-populations and to identify source and sink populations. We identified 2 populations at the highest level of genetic structuring with a total of 5 subpopulations in the Great Basin of Nevada and the eastern Sierra Nevada range. Our results suggest that source-sink dynamics occur at landscape scales for wide-ranging species, such as mountain lions, and that source populations may be those that are under relatively less hunting pressure and that occupy refugia.
Data from: Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub
Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source–sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20–800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source–sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source–sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.
Data from: Genetic source-sink dynamics among naturally structured and anthropogenically fragmented puma populations
Fragmentation of wildlife populations is increasing on a global scale and understanding current population genetic structure, genetic diversity, and genetic connectivity is key to informing wildlife management and conservation. We genotyped 992 pumas (Puma concolor) at 42 previously developed microsatellite loci and identified 10 genetic populations throughout the states of California and Nevada, USA. Although some genetic populations had large effective population sizes, others were small and inbred. Genetic diversity was extremely variable (heterozygosity, uHe = 0.33–0.53), with some populations nearly as low as an endangered subspecies, the Florida Panther (P. c. coryi, uHe = 0.24). Specifically, pumas in the Sierra Nevada were genetically diverse and formed the largest genetic source population in the region. In contrast, coastal and southern populations surrounded by urbanization had low genetic diversity, fragmented gene flow, and tended to be genetic sinks. The strong population genetic structuring of pumas across California (FST = 0.05–0.39) is vastly different than other genetic studies in less-urbanized states, including our analysis in Nevada, where pumas had few barriers to gene flow and weak population differentiation. Our results have far-reaching conservation and management implications for pumas and indicate large-scale fragmentation in one of North America's most biodiverse and rapidly-urbanizing regions.
Data from: Effect of pyric herbivory on source-sink dynamics in grassland birds
Grasslands world-wide provide a host of ecosystem services. In particular, these grasslands serve as biodiversity repositories for a myriad of imperilled animal species. One such group is grassland birds, which have experienced significant declines, predominantly caused by extensive loss and degradation of native grasslands. Rangeland management that promotes increasing and sustaining livestock production through reducing the inherent, disturbance-driven variability that historically occurred in grasslands is considered a major contributing factor to these declines. An alternative approach to this homogeneous management paradigm attempts to restore a shifting mosaic of disturbance patches across the landscape through the spatial and temporal interactions of fire and grazing (i.e. pyric herbivory). Application of pyric herbivory through patch-burn grazing increases overall habitat heterogeneity, likely a critically important factor in maintaining and enhancing grassland bird populations. We compared reproductive rates and estimates of fecundity of three grassland birds nesting in grasslands maintained by traditional and patch-burn grazing management paradigms in the Southern Great Plains of North America. Additionally, we used a sensitivity analysis approach to assess population stability (i.e. λ = 1) and source–sink population dynamics under the two management practices. Nest survival for dickcissels Spiza americana and grasshopper sparrows Ammodramus savannarum was higher in patch-burned grasslands than in traditionally managed grasslands, while nest survival for eastern meadowlarks Sturnella magna was higher in traditionally managed grasslands than in patch-burned grasslands. Dickcissels and grasshopper sparrows responded positively to patch burning with source habitats occurring over a wider range of survival rates under patch burning than traditional management, while no clear pattern emerged in source–sink dynamics of eastern meadowlarks. Synthesis and applications. Management strategies such as patch-burn grazing offer opportunities to restore landscape heterogeneity to benefit bird communities while maintaining livestock production goals. Applying patch-burn grazing to rangelands can increase productivity of grassland birds and could be effective for reversing the decline of grassland birds by providing source habitats more consistently than traditional rangeland management. Our results emphasize the utility of using sensitivity analyses to determine source–sink population dynamics when evaluating management practices. However, land managers should consider that source–sink models have shortcomings and designation of a habitat as a sink does not necessarily mean the habitat has low conservation value.
Data from: Can the source-sink hypothesis explain macrofaunal abundance patterns in the abyss? A modeling test
Low food availability is a major structuring force in deep-sea benthic communities, sustaining only very low densities of organisms in parts of the abyss. These low population densities may result in an Allee effect, whereby local reproductive success is inhibited, and populations are maintained by larval dispersal from bathyal slopes. This slope–abyss source–sink (SASS) hypothesis suggests that the abyssal seafloor constitutes a vast sink habitat with macrofaunal populations sustained only by an influx of larval 'refugees' from source areas on continental slopes, where higher productivity sustains greater population densities. Abyssal macrofaunal population densities would thus be directly related to larval inputs from bathyal source populations. We evaluate three predictions derived from the SASS hypothesis: (i) slope-derived larvae can be passively transported to central abyssal regions within a single larval period, (ii) projected larval export from slopes to the abyss reproduces global patterns of macrofaunal abundance and (iii) macrofaunal abundance decreases with distance from the continental slope. We find that abyssal macrofaunal populations are unlikely to be sustained solely through influx of larvae from slope sources. Rather, local reproduction probably sustains macrofaunal populations in relatively high-productivity abyssal areas, which must also be considered as potential larval source areas for more food-poor abyssal regions.
Data from: Source-sink relationships during grain filling in wheat in response to various temperature, water deficit and nitrogen deficit regimes
<p>Grain filling is a critical process for improving crop production under adverse conditions caused by climate change. Here, using a quantitative method, we quantified post-anthesis source-sink relationships of a large data set to assess the contribution of remobilized pre-anthesis assimilates to grain growth for both biomass and nitrogen. The data set came from 13 years' semi-controlled field experimentation, in which six bread wheat genotypes were grown at plot scale under contrasting temperature, water, and nitrogen regimes. On average, grain biomass was ~10% higher than post-anthesis aboveground biomass accumulation across regimes and genotypes. Overall, the estimated relative contribution (%) of remobilized assimilates to grain biomass became increasingly significant with increasing stress intensity, ranging from virtually nil to 100%. This percentage was altered more by water and nitrogen regimes than by temperature, indicating the greater impact of water or nitrogen regimes relative to high temperatures under our experimental conditions. Relationships between grain nitrogen demand and post-anthesis nitrogen uptake were generally insensitive to environmental conditions, as there was always significant remobilization of nitrogen from vegetative organs, which helped to stabilize the amount of grain nitrogen. Moreover, variations in the relative contribution of remobilized assimilates with environmental variables were genotype-dependent. Our analysis provides an overall picture of post-anthesis source-sink relationships and pre-anthesis assimilate contributions to grain filling across (non-)environmental factors, and highlights that designing wheat adaption to climate change should account for complex multi-factor interactions.</p>
Data from: Can the source-sink hypothesis explain macrofaunal abundance patterns in the abyss? A modeling test
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Data from: Effect of pyric herbivory on source-sink dynamics in grassland birds
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Data from: Post-fragmentation population structure in a cooperative breeding Afrotropical cloud forest bird: emergence of a source-sink population network
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Data from: Source-sink relationships during grain filling in wheat in response to various temperature, water deficit and nitrogen deficit regimes
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Data from: Individual variation and the source-sink group dynamics of extra-group paternity in a social mammal
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Data from: Genetic source-sink dynamics among naturally structured and anthropogenically fragmented puma populations
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Data from: Identification of source-sink dynamics in mountain lions of the Great Basin
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Data from: Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub
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Data from: Why we should care about movements: Using spatially explicit integrated population models to assess habitat source-sink dynamics
<p>1. Assessing the source-sink status of populations and habitats is of major importance for understanding population dynamics and for the management of natural populations. Sources produce a net surplus of individuals (per capita contribution to the metapopulation >1) and will be the main contributors for self-sustaining populations, whereas sinks produce a deficit (contribution < 1). However, making these types of assessments is generally hindered by the problem of separating mortality from permanent emigration, especially when survival probabilities as well as moved distances are habitat-specific.<br> 2. To address this long-standing issue, we propose a spatial multi-event Integrated Population Model (IPM) that incorporates habitat-specific dispersal distances of individuals. Using information about local movements, this IPM adjusts survival estimates for emigration outside the study area.<br> 3. Analyzing 24 years of data on a farmland passerine (the northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe) we assessed habitat-specific contributions, and hence the source-sink status and temporal variation of two key breeding habitats, while accounting for habitat- and sex-specific local dispersal distances of juveniles and adults. We then examined the sensitivity of the source-sink analysis by comparing results with and without accounting for these local movements.<br> 4. Estimates of first-year survival, and consequently habitat-specific contributions, were higher when local movement data were included. The consequences from including movement data were sex specific, with contribution shifting from sink to likely source in one habitat for males, and previously noted habitat differences for females disappearing.<br> 5. Assessing the source-sink status of habitats is extremely challenging. We show that our spatial IPM accounting for local movements can reduce biases in estimates of the contribution by different habitats, and thus reduce the overestimation of the occurrence of sink habitats. This approach allows combining all available data on demographic rates and movements, which will allow better assessment of source-sink dynamics and better informed conservation interventions.</p>
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