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5 results for “Species distribution models (SDMs)”
Incorporating plant phenological responses into species distribution models (SDMs) reduces estimates of future species loss and turnover
<p>Anthropogenetic climate change has caused distribution shifts of many species, and species distribution models (SDMs) are central for documenting this relationship. However, most SDMs rarely consider the evolution of climate-sensitive functional traits, such as phenology, which strongly affect species fitness. Using >120,000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species across the eastern United States, we developed a novel "phenology-informed" SDM that integrates dynamic phenological responses to changing climates. Compared to standard SDMs, our phenology-informed SDMs forecast lower species habitat loss and less species turnover under climate change. These results suggest that phenotypic plasticity or local adaptation in phenology may help species adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats under rapid environmental change. Our findings reveal how phenology variation mediates species distributions and affects regional biodiversity patterns. Our newly developed model also circumvents the need for mechanistic models, facilitating the deployment of trait-based SDMs across unprecedented spatial and taxonomic scales.</p>
Incorporating plant phenological responses into species distribution models (SDMs) reduces estimates of future species loss and turnover
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Quantifying niche similarity among new world seed plants--Species Distribution Models (SDMs) & associated metadata
<p>Niche shift and conservatism are often framed as mutually exclusive. However, both processes could contribute to biodiversity patterns. We tested this expectation by quantifying the degree of climatic niche similarity among New World seed plants.</p> <p>To incorporate the biological reality that species experience varied abiotic conditions across their range, we assembled distribution models and used these to characterize temperature, precipitation, and elevation niches for species as continuously-valued distributions. We then quantified niche similarity (distributional overlap) and identified statistically significant differences compared to a randomized null.</p> <p>The degree of niche similarity differed among climate variables, plant lineages, and at different phylogenetic scales. For example, ~17% of all seed plants were significantly different in elevational niche from their closest relative(s), whereas for precipitation, this value was only ~4%. Average niche similarity decreased with increasing phylogenetic distance, consistent with niche conservatism; however, variance in niche similarity among close relatives was large, such that there always existed niche differences equaling those among distantly related species.</p> <p>Our results suggest researchers should incorporate both niche shift and conservatism as important, scale-dependent factors shaping biodiversity patterns as these processes are not mutually exclusive, nor do they contribute equally to patterns among different plant lineages or niche variables.</p>
Structural uncertainty in species distribution models (SDMs)
<p>This repository contains all scripts of data downloading, data processing, model building, and model prediction for the species distribution modeling experiment lead by Anna Thonis, Uzma Ashraf, C. Nikki Cavalieri, Toni Lyn Morelli, and Adam B. Smith. More details about this worldwide experiment can be found at https://earthskysea.org/join-us-in-a-study-of-sdm-methodology/.</p> <p>To note, the range map for <em>Prionailurus bengalensis</em> can be downloaded directly from IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/spatial-data-download). The range map for <em>Zamia prasina</em> can be obtained by request. All the present and future climate raster layers are downloaded from CHELSA v2.1 (https://chelsa-climate.org/downloads/). Other processed environmental layers can be obtained by request since the size of these data is over 220 GB.</p>
Quantifying niche similarity among new world seed plants--Species Distribution Models (SDMs) & associated metadata
Open the record for dataset details and reuse information.
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OpenNeuro
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