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7 results for “fire thresholds”
DATASET : Thresholds of fire response to moisture and fuel load differ between tropical savannas and grasslands across continents
<p><strong>Abstract </strong></p> <p><strong>Aim:</strong> An emerging framework for tropical ecosystems states that fire activity is either ‘<em>fuel build-up limited</em>’ or ‘<em>fuel moisture limited</em>’ i.e. as you move up along rainfall gradients, the major control on fire occurrence switches from being the amount of fuel, to the moisture content of the fuel. Here we used remotely sensed datasets to assess whether interannual variability of burned area is better explained by annual rainfall totals driving fuel build-up, or by dry season rainfall driving fuel moisture.</p> <p><strong>Location:</strong> Pantropical savannas and grasslands</p> <p><strong>Time period:</strong> 2002-2016</p> <p><strong>Methods:</strong> We explored the response of annual burned area to interannual variability in rainfall. We compared several linear models to understand how <em>fuel moisture </em>and <em>fuel build-up effect </em>(accumulated rainfall during 6 and 24 months prior to the end of the burning season respectively) determine the interannual variability of burned area and explore if tree cover, dry season duration and human activity modified these relationships.</p> <p><strong>Results:</strong> Fuel and moisture controls on fire occurrence in tropical savannas varied across continents. Only 24% of South American savannas were <em>fuel build-up limited</em> against 61% of Australian savannas and 47% of African savannas. On average, South America switched from fuel limited to moisture limited at 500 mm yr<sup>-1</sup>, Africa at 800 mm yr<sup>-1</sup> and Australia at 1000 mm yr<sup>-1 </sup>of mean annual rainfall.</p> <p><strong>Main conclusions:</strong> In 42% of tropical savannas (accounting for 41% of current area burned) increased drought and higher temperatures will not increase fire, but there are savannas, particularly in South America, that are likely to become more flammable with increasing temperatures. These findings highlight that we cannot transfer knowledge of fire responses to global change across ecosystems/regions – local solutions to local fire management issues are required, and different tropical savanna regions may show contrasting responses to the same drivers of global change.</p>
Thresholds and alternative states in neotropical dry forest in response to fire severity, 2005-2018
Neotropical xerophytic forest ecosystems evolved with fires that shaped their resilience to disturbance events. We asked if there is evidence for a fire severity threshold causing an abrupt transition from a forest to an alternative shrub thicket state in the presence of typical post-fire management. We studied a heterogeneous wildfire event to assess medium-term effects (11 years) of varying fire severity in a xerophytic Caldén forest (Prosopis caldenia) in La Pampa province, central Argentina. We conducted field vegetation surveys in patches that were exposed to low (LFS), medium (MFS), and high (HFS) fire severities, but had similar pre-fire woody canopy cover. Satellite images were used to quantify fire severity using a delta Normalized Burning Ratio (dNBR) and to map pre-fire canopy cover. The structure and composition of woody and herbaceous vegetation was measured during the 2017-18 growing season (September to March) in areas affected by different severities of the 2006 wildfire.
Data from: Consequences of climatic thresholds for projecting fire activity and ecological change
Aim: Ecological properties governed by threshold relationships can exhibit heightened sensitivity to climate, creating an inherent source of uncertainty when anticipating future change. We investigated the impact of threshold relationships on our ability to project ecological change outside the observational record (e.g., the 21st century), using the challenge of predicting late‐Holocene fire regimes in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems. Location: Boreal forest and tundra ecosystems of Alaska. Time period: 850–2100 CE. Major taxa studied: Not applicable. Methods: We informed a set of published statistical models, designed to predict the 30‐year probability of fire occurrence based on climatological normals, with downscaled global climate model data for 850–1850 CE. To evaluate model performance outside the observational record and the implications of threshold relationships, we compared modelled estimates with mean fire return intervals estimated from 29 published lake‐sediment palaeofire reconstructions. To place our results in the context of future change, we evaluate changes in the location of threshold to burning under 21st‐century climate projections. Results: Model–palaeodata comparisons highlight spatially varying accuracy across boreal forest and tundra regions, with variability strongly related to the summer temperature threshold to burning: sites closer to this threshold exhibited larger prediction errors than sites further away from this threshold. Modifying the modern (i.e., 1950–2009) fire–climate relationship also resulted in significant changes in modelled estimates. Under 21st‐century climate projections, increasing proportions of Alaskan tundra and boreal forest will approach and surpass the temperature threshold to burning, with > 50% exceeding this threshold by > 2 °C by 2070–2099. Main conclusions: Our results highlight a high sensitivity of statistical projections to changing threshold relationships and data uncertainty, implying that projections of future ecosystem change in threshold‐governed ecosystems will be accompanied by notable uncertainty. This work also suggests that ecological responses to climate change will exhibit high spatio‐temporal variability as different regions approach and surpass climatic thresholds over the 21st century.
Data from: Consequences of climatic thresholds for projecting fire activity and ecological change
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Data from: Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change
Boreal forests and arctic tundra cover 33% of global land area and store an estimated 50% of total soil carbon. Because wildfire is a key driver of terrestrial carbon cycling, increasing fire activity in these ecosystems would likely have global implications. To anticipate potential spatiotemporal variability in fire-regime shifts, we modeled the spatially explicit 30-yr probability of fire occurrence as a function of climate and landscape features (i.e. vegetation and topography) across Alaska. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models captured the spatial distribution of fire across boreal forest and tundra ecoregions (AUC from 0.63–0.78 and Pearson correlations between predicted and observed data from 0.54–0.71), highlighting summer temperature and annual moisture availability as the most influential controls of historical fire regimes. Modeled fire–climate relationships revealed distinct thresholds to fire occurrence, with a nonlinear increase in the probability of fire above an average July temperature of 13.4°C and below an annual moisture availability (i.e. P-PET) of approximately 150 mm. To anticipate potential fire-regime responses to 21st-century climate change, we informed our BRTs with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under the RCP 6.0 scenario. Based on these projected climatic changes alone (i.e. not accounting for potential changes in vegetation), our results suggest an increasing probability of wildfire in Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, but of varying magnitude across space and throughout the 21st century. Regions with historically low flammability, including tundra and the forest–tundra boundary, are particularly vulnerable to climatically induced changes in fire activity, with up to a fourfold increase in the 30-yr probability of fire occurrence by 2100. Our results underscore the climatic potential for novel fire regimes to develop in these ecosystems, relative to the past 6000–35 000 yr, and spatial variability in the vulnerability of wildfire regimes and associated ecological processes to 21st-century climate change.
Data from: Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change
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Assessment of the Implementation of the ResQGARD® Impedance Threshold Device by the San Antonio Fire Department
ClinicalTrials.gov study NCT01780350. IPD Sharing: Not stated. Countries: 0. Publications: 0.
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