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6 results for “ukcp18”
Projected changes in droughts and extreme droughts in Great Britain are strongly influenced by the choice of drought index: UKCP18-based bias adjusted potential evapotranspiration
<p>Potential evapotranspiration calculated from the UKCP18 RCM ensemble using the Penman-Monteith method as implemented by Robinson et al. (2017) and bias adjusted using Lange et al. (2019). This dataset was used for analysis of future drought characteristics in Reyniers et al. (2022). Details on the bias adjustment of this potential evapotranspiration dataset, as well as bias-adjusted precipitation and temperature from the same climate model ensemble, can be found in Reyniers et al. (2025).</p> <p>---</p> <p>Reyniers, N., Osborn, T. J., Addor, N., and Darch, G.: Projected changes in droughts and extreme droughts in Great Britain strongly influenced by the choice of drought index, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1151–1171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1151-2023, 2023.</p> <p>Reyniers, N., Zha, Q., Addor, N., Osborn, T. J., Forstenhäusler, N., and He, Y.: Two sets of bias-corrected regional UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) of temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for Great Britain, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2113–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2113-2025, 2025. </p> <p>Robinson, E. L., Blyth, E. M., Clark, D. B., Finch, J., Rudd, A. C. (2017). Trends in atmospheric evaporative demand in Great Britain using high-resolution meteorological data. HESS, <em>21</em>(2), 1189-1224.</p> <p>Lange, S. (2019). Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1. 0). <em>GMD,</em> <em>12</em>(7), 3055-3070.</p>
Projected changes in droughts and extreme droughts in Great Britain are strongly influenced by the choice of drought index: UKCP18-based SPI and SPEI data
<p>Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI; McKee et al., 1993) and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2009) computed from UKCP18 Strand 3 simulations (Met Office Hadley Centre, 2018).</p> <p>This data was produced for the study by Reyniers et al. (<em>in prep</em>) analysing (diferences in) drought projections using these indicators. The methodology used to produce this data can be found there if/when the paper is accepted, however do not hesitate to reach out with any further questions. Please note the RCM data was bias adjusted prior to SPI and SPEI computation. There is one file per ensemble member containing the full simulated period on a monthly time step, using aggregation periods of 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months for the computation of SP(E)I.</p> <p><strong>References</strong></p> <p>McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., Kleist, J., et al.: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, in: Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, vol. 17, pp. 179–183, Boston, 1993</p> <p>Met Office Hadley Centre (2018): UKCP18 Regional Projections on a 12km grid over the UK for 1980-2080. Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, <em>date of citation</em>. <a href="https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/589211abeb844070a95d061c8cc7f604">https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/589211abeb844070a95d061c8cc7f604</a></p> <p>Reyniers, N., Osborn, T. J., Addor, N., Darch, G.: Projected changes in droughts and extreme droughts in Great<br> Britain are strongly influenced by the choice of drought index. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, <em>in prep. for HESS</em></p> <p>Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., and López-Moreno, J. I.: A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Journal of Climate, 23, 1696–1718, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1, 2009.</p>
UK Climate Projections (UKCP18): Weather Patterns
<p>Provided here are the data files for the weather patterns generated for the <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp">2018 UK Climate Projections</a> (UKCP or UKCP18) Global ensemble (sometimes referred to as the land-gcm). The weather patterns are the same weather patterns as used in <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1563">Neal et al. (2016)</a> and used the same code to generate the weather patterns for the ensemble members. A historical equivalent of this dataset based on ERA5 can be found in <a href="https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.942896">Neal, (2022)</a>.</p> <p>The UKCP Global model dataset features two ensembles:<br>The PPE-15 : A 15 member perturbed parameter ensemble of the HadGEM3.05 model<br>The CMIP5-13: A sub-selection of 13 members from the CMIP5 ensemble.</p> <p>The PPE-15 data is available using the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and the CMIP5-13 is available only using the RCP 8.5 scenario.</p> <p>When using these weather patterns please cite: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06031-0">Pope et al., 2022</a>, Investigation of future climate change over the British Isles using weather patterns. Climate Dynamics. </p>
UKCP18 RCM precipitation and temperature bias corrected using ISIMIP3BA change-preserving quantile mapping.
<p>We present bias-corrected UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18; Met Office Hadley Centre, 2018) regional datasets for temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (1981-2080). All 12 members of the 12 km ensemble were corrected using quantile mapping and a change-preserving variant (Lange, 2019; Lange, 2020). Both methods effectively reduce biases in multiple statistics, while maintaining projected climatic changes. We provide guidance on using the bias-corrected datasets for climate change impact assessment. Please find a detailed description and evaluation in the metadata and accompanying data paper (Reyniers et al., 2025).</p> <p>---</p> <p>Met Office Hadley Centre (2018): UKCP18 Regional Projections on a 12km grid over the UK for 1980-2080. CEDA, <em>8 March 2022</em>. <a href="https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/589211abeb844070a95d061c8cc7f604">https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/589211abeb844070a95d061c8cc7f604</a></p> <p>Lange, S. (2019). Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1. 0). <em>GMD,</em> <em>12</em>(7), 3055-3070.</p> <p>Lange, S. (2020). ISIMIP3BASD (2.4.1). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3898426</p> <p>Reyniers, N., Zha, Q., Addor, N., Osborn, T. J., Forstenhäusler, N., & He, Y. (2025). Two sets of bias-corrected regional UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) of temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for Great Britain. <em>Earth System Science Data</em>, <em>2025, 17(5)</em>, 2113–2133.</p>
UKCP18 RCM precipitation and temperature bias corrected using non-parametric quantile mapping method
<p>The UKCP18 RCM PPE (Met Office Hadley Centre, 2018) projections of precipitation and daily average temperature were bias adjusted using a non-parametric quantile mapping method based on empirical quantiles (Boe et al, 2007, Gudmundsson et al, 2012). The datasets cover the period from December 1980 to November 2080 and are intended for use in climate change impact assessments, where the bias correction helps reduce biases in multiple statistics while <span>maintaining projected climatic changes</span>.</p> <p>-------------------------------------------------</p> <p>Met Office Hadley Centre (2018): UKCP18 Regional Projections on a 12km grid over the UK for 1980-2080. CEDA, <em>8 March 2022</em>. <a href="https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/589211abeb844070a95d061c8cc7f604">https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/589211abeb844070a95d061c8cc7f604</a></p> <p>Boe, J.; Terray, L.; Habets, F. & Martin, E. Statistical and dynamical downscaling of the Seine basin climate for hydro-meteorological studies. International Journal of Climatology, 2007, 27, 1643-1655, doi: 10.1002/joc.1602.</p> <p>Gudmundsson, L.; Bremnes, J. B.; Haugen, J. E. & Engen-Skaugen, T. Technical Note: Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations - a comparison of methods. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2012, 16, 3383-3390, doi:10.5194/hess-16-3383-2012.</p> <p><strong>Paper Citation:</strong><br>We kindly ask users of this dataset to cite the paper that describes the dataset. The paper is published and can be accessed via the following link: <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2113-2025" target="_new" rel="noopener">https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2113-2025</a>.</p> <p><br>Please reference the paper as:<br>Reyniers, N., Zha, Q., Addor, N., Osborn, T. J., Forstenhäusler, N., and He, Y.: Two sets of bias-corrected regional UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) of temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for Great Britain, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2113–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2113-2025, 2025.</p>
Temperature-related mortality in England and Wales under UKCP18 climate projections
<p>This dataset is associated with the following publication, where further details are provided and which should be cited for further applications:</p> <p>Huang et al. 2022, Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales, Environ. Res. Lett., <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5">https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5</a>.</p> <p>The data contain daily temperature-related mortality estimates for ten NUTS 1 regions of England and Wales over the period 1900 to 2099, based on temperatures from the 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) simulations. Exposure-response relationships are based on present-day observations and extrapolated where necessary.</p> <p>Variables in the csv files are as follows:</p> <p>"tmean": daily mean temperature (in degrees C)<br> "bAD": backward attributable deaths<br> "fAD": forward attributable deaths</p> <p>RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios are considered, as indicated in the file names. Model numbers refer to UKCP18 climate models.</p>
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