BBN designed to develop future land-use scenarios for the Sierra Nevada under different environmental and management conditions

<p>Land-use change (deforestation for crops and pastures, reforestation, firewood removal, etc.) constitutes one of the primary drivers of global change, since human activity is to a greater or lesser degree altering the vegetation cover of the planet. The combined effects of climate change and shifts in land use determine the distribution and structure of the vegetation of the Sierra Nevada, and the associated ecosystem services. The surface cover of tree formations in Sierra Nevada has expanded from 15% to 51.23% over the last 60 years. Similarly, a densification of the scattered tree cover and the natural forests and a decline in the surface area occupied by cultivated fields (from 17.8% to 4.72%) has occurred in the last six decades (Zamora, et al, 2016). Therefore, it is important to ascertain future land use change and its effects on the vegetation cover.&nbsp;</p><p>The main purpose of this model is to facilitate the land-use management of Protected Areas (PAs) based on ecosystem services (ES). A BBN is being designed to develop future land-use scenarios for the Sierra Nevada under different environmental and management conditions. Afterwards, we will implement these scenarios in other ES assessment models. The analysis of ES trade-offs in several scenarios will help managers to predict the state of ES and their relations in the future.</p>