Projected future autumn leaf phenology of deciduous trees

<p><span>Autumn leaf phenology (i.e. leaf colouring or leaf senescence) marks the end of the growing season, during which trees assimilate atmospheric CO₂. Since autumn leaf phenology responds to climatic conditions, climate change affects the length of the growing season. Thus, autumn phenology is often modelled to assess possible climate change effects on future CO₂ mitigating capacities and species compositions of forests.</span></p> <p><span>Here, we give access to the entire dataset of projected autumn phenology analyzed in Meier and Bigler (2023). The data was derived from different combinations of 21 process-oriented phenology models, 5 optimization algorithms, ≥7 sampling procedures, and 26 climate model chains from two representative concentration pathways. The dataset contains the average autumn phenology per site and for the years 2080-2099 according to each combination that led to a successful calibration. Calibration and validation were based on &gt;45 000 observations for common beech (<em>Fagus sylvatica L.</em>), pedunculate oak (<em>Quercus robur L.</em>), and European larch (<em>Larix decidua Mill</em>.) from 500 Central European sites each.</span></p> <p><span>Cite as Meier, M., &amp; Bigler, C. (2023). Process-oriented models of autumn leaf phenology: Ways to sound calibration and implications of uncertain projections. <em>Geoscientific Model Development</em>, 16(23), 7171–7201. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023</span></p>