Simulated winter snow, soil thermal regime, and artificial drainage dynamics under climate change.

<p>This dataset provides simulated winter subsurface drainage outputs from the calibrated Root Zone Water Quality Model&ndash;Simultaneous Heat and Water (RZ-SHAW) and four machine-learning models (Cubist, LSTM, Multilinear, SVM) for five agricultural research sites across Eastern Canada (Alfred, Harrow, Kentville, Ottawa-Greenbelt, and St-Emmanuel). The simulations span from 1950 to 2100 under the high-emission climate change scenario RCP8.5, derived from the Canadian Regional Climate Model Large Ensemble (CANRCM4 LE).</p> <p>Included in this repository are:</p> <ul> <li> <p>Winter drainage volume's future projections from 1950 to 2100 the RZ-SHAW and machine-learning models.</p> </li> <li> <p>RZ-SHAW simulated future projections from 1950 to 2100 in snow cover, soil thermal conditions, subsurface drainage volume and frequency, evaporation, surface runoff, and soil water storage.</p> </li> </ul> <p>This dataset also contains simulated annual crop yield projections (kg/hectare) from 1950 to 2100 the five sites Alfred (corn), Harrow (corn and soybean), Kentville (corn), Ottawa (corn), St-Emmanuel (corn). Simulations were performed using the RZ-SHAW model under RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Each site's data includes annual grain yield values and Sen's slope trend analysis with Mann-Kendall significance test results.</p> <p>Users should note the following important limitations when interpreting these yield projections:</p> <ol> <li>Simplified Crop Growth Parameters: The crop module was implemented primarily to account for crop residue effects on winter soil conditions, not for yield prediction. No calibration was performed for crop growth parameters.</li> <li>No Nutrient Stress: Simulations were run without nitrogen or phosphorus limitations for simplicity, which may overestimate yields in scenarios where nutrient availability would be constraining.</li> <li>Fixed Management Practices: Planting and harvest dates were held constant throughout the simulation period (1950-2100) based on historical averages, which becomes increasingly unrealistic under future climate conditions.</li> <li>No CO₂ Fertilization Effect: Atmospheric CO₂ concentration changes were not incorporated, potentially underestimating photosynthetic responses in future climate scenarios.</li> <li>Limited Stress Responses: The model's representation of heat stress, drought tolerance, and other physiological responses to extreme conditions may not fully capture crop responses under future climate scenarios.</li> <li>No Adaptation Strategies: The simulations do not account for potential adaptations such as cultivar changes, shifting planting dates, or irrigation implementation that would likely occur in response to changing conditions.</li> </ol>