Anticipating the potential impacts of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans on Neotropical salamander diversity

<p>Emergent infectious disease caused by the fungal pathogens <i>Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis</i> (<i>Bd</i>) and <i>B. salamandrivorans</i> (<i>Bsal</i>) represent one of the major causes of biodiversity loss in amphibians. While <i>Bd </i>has affected amphibians worldwide, <i>Bsal </i>remains restricted to Asia and Europe, but also could be a major threat for salamanders in the Western hemisphere, including the 320 bolitoglossine species described. Here we predict the suitable areas for <i>Bsal </i>in the Neotropics and assessed its potential impact on bolitoglossine diversity. For this, we determined the geographic patterns of taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity for bolitoglossines and modelled the potential distribution of <i>Bsal</i> in the Neotropics. We identified which species and regions could be at risk from an eventual introduction of <i>Bsal </i>in the region, quantified the degree of overlap between regions of high diversity and the suitable conditions for the pathogen, and considered species IUCN Red List status, and geographic range size. We found that regions of high taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity are concentrated in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Sierra Madre Oriental, the southern portion of Sierra Madre del Sur and the mountains of Oaxaca in México, as well as the Chiapan-Guatemalan highlands, and the Cordilleras of Costa Rica and Panama. Alarmingly, the regions of high diversity for bolitoglossines and over 75% of the ranges of the more threatened species could be affected by <i>Bsal</i>. Given the unknown vulnerability of these species, we strongly recommend measures to avoid the introduction of <i>Bsal</i> in the continent.</p>