Niche dynamics of Memecylon in Sri Lanka: distribution patterns, climate change effects, and conservation priorities

<p><b>Aim</b>: Recent climate projections have shown that the distribution of organisms in island biotas is highly affected by climate change. Here, we present the results of the analysis of niche dynamics of a plant group, <i>Memecylon</i> on Sri Lanka, an island, using species occurrences and climate data. We aim to determine which climate variables explain current distribution, model how climate change impacts the availability of suitable habitat for <i>Memecylon,</i> and determine conservation priority areas for Sri Lankan <i>Memecylon</i>.</p> <p><b>Location</b>: Sri Lanka</p> <p><b>Methods</b>: We used georeferenced occurrence data of Sri Lankan <i>Memecylon</i> to develop ecological niche models and assess both current and future potential distributions under six climate change scenarios in 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. We also overlaid land-cover, and protected area maps and performed a gap analysis to understand the impacts of land-cover changes on <i>Memecylon</i> distributions and propose new areas for conservation.</p> <p><b>Results</b>: Differences among suitable habitats of <i>Memecylon</i> were found to be related to patterns of endemism. Under varying future climate scenarios, endemic groups were predicted to experience habitat shifts, gains, or losses. The narrow endemic <i>Memecylon </i>restricted to the montane zone were predicted to be the most impacted by climate change. Projections also indicated that changes in species' habitats can be expected as early as 2041-2060. Gap analysis showed that while narrow endemic categories are considerably protected as demonstrated by their overlap with protected areas, more conservation efforts in Sri Lankan forests containing wide endemic and non-endemic <i>Memecylon</i> are needed.</p> <p><b>Main conclusions</b>: This research helped clarify general patterns of responses of Sri Lankan <i>Memecylon </i>to global climate change. Data from this study are useful for designing measures aimed at filling the gaps in forest conservation on this island.</p>