Figure 4 in A two-species distribution model for parapatric newts, with inferences on their history of spatial replacement

Figure 4. Model of the two-species distribution of Triturus cristatus and Triturus marmoratus for climatic conditions as foreseen for 50 years from now under the CMCC-ESM2_ SSP126 scenario. Results were simplified to a binary representation, with red for T. cristatus (probability of occurrence, Pc> 0.5) and blue for T. marmoratus (Pc <0.5). Grey areas predict the presence of one species or the other, depending on zero or full forestation (for details, see main text). The white line approximates the mutual species border as modelled for the present day (Fig. 2A). Note that the contact zone would have to move at a pace of> 10 km/ year to keep up with the projected change. Three other scenarios yielded even larger contact zone displacements (Supporting Information, Fig. S2).