FCE Redlands 2001 Zoning, Miami-Dade County, South Florida

Urban growth models have increasingly been used by planners and policy makers to visualize, organize, understand, and predict urban growth. However, these models reveal a wide disparity in their attention to policy factors. Some urban growth models capture few if any specific policy effects (e.g.,as model variables), while others integrate certain policies but not others. Since zoning policies are the most widely used form of land use control in the United States, their conspicuous absence from so many urban growth models is surprising. This research investigated the impacts of zoning on urban growth by calibrating and simulating a cellular automaton urban growth model, SLEUTH, under two conditions in a South Florida location. The first condition integrated restrictive agricultural zoning into SLEUTH, while the other ignored zoning data. Goodness of fit metrics indicate that including the agricultural zoning data improved model performance. The results further suggest that agricultural zoning has been somewhat successful in retarding urban growth in South Florida. Ignoring zoning information is detrimental to SLEUTH performance in particular, and urban growth modeling in general.