Markov Modeling of Component Fault Growth Over A Derived Domain of Feasible Output Control Effort Modifications

This paper introduces a novel Markov process formulation of stochastic fault growth modeling, in order to facilitate the development and analysis of prognostics-based control adap- tation. A metric representing the relative deviation between the nominal output of a system and the net output that is ac- tually enacted by an implemented prognostics-based control routine, will be used to define the action space of the formu- lated Markov process. The state space of the Markov pro- cess will be defined in terms of an abstracted metric repre- senting the relative health remaining in each of the system’s components. The proposed formulation of component fault dynamics will conveniently relate feasible system output per- formance modifications to predictions of future component health deterioration.