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opencc-zeroDec 2015View details →

Data from: Behavioural hypervolumes of spider communities predict community performance and disbandment

Trait-based ecology argues that an understanding of the traits of interactors can enhance the predictability of ecological outcomes. We examine here whether the multidimensional behavioural-trait diversity of communities influences community performance and stability in situ. We created experimental communities of web-building spiders, each with an identical species composition. Communities contained one individual of each of five different species. Prior to establishing these communities in the field, we examined three behavioural traits for each individual spider. These behavioural measures allowed us to estimate community-wide behavioural diversity, as inferred by the multidimensional behavioural volume occupied by the entire community. Communities that occupied a larger region of behavioural-trait space (i.e. where spiders differed more from each other behaviourally) gained more mass and were less likely to disband. Thus, there is a community-wide benefit to multidimensional behavioural diversity in this system that might translate to other multispecies assemblages.

opencc-by-4.0Oct 2020View details →

Predicting Prime Path Coverage Using Regression Analysis

SBES - Research Track - 2020 - Presentation Video.

Predictive biomarkers of individual trajectories in elderly persons with subtle cognitive decline: APOE genotype data

The mentalizing network (MN) treats social interactions based on our understanding of other people's intentions and includes the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), temporoparietal junction (TPJ), posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), precuneus (PC) and amygdala. Not all elders are equally affected by the aging-related decrease of mentalizing abilities. Personality has recently emerged as a strong determinant of functional connectivity in MN areas. However, its impact on volumetric changes across the mentalizing network in brain aging is still unknown. To address this issue, we explored the determinants of volume decrease in MN components including amyloid burden, personality, and APOE genotyping in a previously established cohort of 130 healthy elders with a mean follow-up of 54 months. Personality was assessed with the Neuroticism Extraversion Openness Personality Inventory-Revised. Regression models corrected for multiple comparisons were used to identify predictors of volume loss including time, age, sex, personality, amyloid load, presence of APOE epsilon 4 allele and cognitive evolution. In cases with higher Agreeableness scores, there were lower volume losses in posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), precuneus (PC) and amygdala bilaterally. This was also the case for right medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) in elders displaying lower Agreeableness and Conscientiousness. In multiple regression models, the effect of Agreeableness was still observed in left PC and right amygdala and that of Conscientiousness in right mPFC volume loss (26.3% of variability, significant age, sex). Several Agreeableness (Modesty) and Conscientiousness (order, dutifulness, achievement striving and self-discipline) facets were positively related to increased volume loss in cortical components of the MN. In conclusion, these data challenge the beneficial role of higher levels of Agreeableness and Conscientiousness in old age showing that they are associated with an increased rate of volume loss within the mentalizing network.

Forest patch size predicts seed bank composition in urban areas

Questions: As urban areas expand around the world, understanding how to restore and maintain forests within the urban environment becomes increasingly important. Given that a comprehensive understanding of regeneration dynamics is critical to designating appropriate management interventions we ask the following: how does regeneration, vis-à-vis the buried seed bank, vary in heterogenous urban forests? And, can forest patch size be used to predict regeneration and consequent management interventions? Location: Vacant lots and public parks throughout New Haven, CT, USA. Methods: We sampled buried seed banks in 131 plots distributed across three forest patch sizes ranging from large intact parks (95-126 ha), to small parks (1-19 ha), and vacant lots (.05-.65 ha). We collected soil samples from the surface mineral soil and stratified them over sand in a greenhouse over a period of 5 months to record germination. Results: By examining seed bank floristics in a range of forest patch sizes we found that species composition and dominance of specific functional groups shifted with patch size representing a spectrum of urbanization within just one city. Seed bank floristics in large parks more closely resembled results from seed bank studies in rural forests with over 85% native germinants on average. In contrast, vacant lots were dominated by non-native germinants and more ruderal species indicative of earlier successional stages. Seed banks in small parks were variable and in some cases were more similar to large parks or vacant lots. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that large parks in urban areas may be largely self-sustaining whereas smaller parks may require more intensive management for site rehabilitation, especially in early states of succession. Furthermore, our results confirm the highly heterogeneous nature of urban forest patches and call for more systematic sampling of urban areas to capture this variation and improve management prescriptions and outcomes.

Multidimensional trait morphology predicts ecology across ant lineages

1. Understanding the link between ecology and morphology is a fundamental goal in biology. Ants are diverse terrestrial organisms, known to exhibit ecologically-driven morphological variation. While relationships between individual traits and ecologies have been identified, multidimensional interactions among traits and their cumulative predictive power remain unknown. Because selective pressures may generate convergent syndromes spanning multiple traits, we applied multivariate analyses across a wide sampling of taxa to assess ecomorphological variation in an integrative context. 2. How well does morphology predict ecology? Moreover, are there quantitatively-supported ant ecomorphs? We investigated the links between trait morphology and ecology by assembling a morphometric dataset spanning over 160 species within 110 genera. Because ants occupy a wide range of ecologies, we compiled natural history data on nesting microhabitat, foraging stratum, and functional role into 35 defined niche combinations. This tripartite ecological classification and our morphological dataset were optimized under dimension reduction techniques including Principal Component Analysis, Principal Coordinate Analysis, Linear Discriminant Analysis, and Random Forest supervised machine learning. 3. Our results describe ant ecomorphospace as comprising regions of shared, generalized morphology as well as unique phenotypic space associated with specialized ecologies. Dimension reduction and model-based approaches predict ecology with 77-85% accuracy and Random Forest analysis consistently outperforms LDA. While accounting for shared ancestry, we found eye, antennal scape, and leg morphology to be most informative in differentiating among ecologies. We also note some heterogeneity between trait significance in each ecological aspect (nesting niche, foraging niche, functional role). To increase the utility of ecomorphological classification we simplified our 35 observed niche combinations into 10 ecomorph syndromes, which were also predicted by morphology. The predictive power of these machine learning methods underscores the strong role that ecology has in convergently shaping overall body plan morphology across ant lineages. We include a pipeline for predictive ecomorphological modeling using morphometric data, which may be expanded with additional specimen-based and natural history data.

opencc-zeroJul 2021View details →

Data from: Bee phenology is predicted by climatic variation and functional traits

Climate change is shifting the environmental cues that determine the phenology of interacting species. Plant-pollinator systems may be susceptible to temporal mismatch if bees and flowering plants differ in their phenological responses to warming temperatures. While the cues that trigger flowering are well-understood, little is known about what determines bee phenology. Using Generalized Additive Models, we analyzed time-series data representing 67 bee species collected over nine years in the Colorado Rocky Mountains to perform the first community-wide quantification of the drivers of bee phenology. Bee emergence was sensitive to climatic variation, advancing with earlier snowmelt timing, while later phenophases were best explained by functional traits including overwintering stage and nest location. Comparison of these findings to a long-term flower study showed that bee phenology is less sensitive than flower phenology to climatic variation, indicating potential for reduced synchrony of flowers and pollinators under climate change.

Data from : Environmental predictability drives adaptive within- and transgenerational plasticity of heat tolerance across life stages and climatic regions

Although environmental variability and predictability have been proposed as the underlying ecological context in which transgenerational plasticity (TGP) arises, the adaptive significance and interaction with within-generation plasticity (WGP) in such scenarios is still poorly understood. In order to investigate these questions, we considered the tolerance to upper thermal limits of larvae and adults of the desert endemic Drosophila mojavensis adapted to different climatic regions (Desert vs Mediterranean climate). Thermal plasticity was investigated by acclimating parents and offspring at 36°C (versus at 25°C). We then used historical temperature variation data from both regions to perform individual-based simulations by modeling expected components of adaptive plasticity in multiple life stages. Thermal response to ramping heat shocks was more pronounced in larvae, where acclimation treatments in parents and offspring increased their heat-shock performance, while heat knockdown in adults was only increased by offspring acclimation of adults. The relative contribution of WGP and TGP was greater for the population from the more thermally variable Sonoran Desert. Similarly, individual-based simulations of evolving maternal effects indicated that variation in tolerance to upper thermal limits across life stages and climates is expected from its adaptive significance in response to environmental predictability. Our approach offers a new perspective and interpretation of adaptive plasticity, demonstrating that environmental predictability can drive thermal responses across generations and life stages in a scenario with regional climate variability.

opencc-by-4.0Oct 2020View details →

Data for "Rainfall-Runoff Prediction at Multiple Timescales with a Single Long Short-Term Memory Network"

Data for the paper "Rainfall-Runoff Prediction at Multiple Timescales with a Single Long Short-Term Memory Network" GitHub: <a href="https://github.com/gauchm/mts-lstm">https://github.com/gauchm/mts-lstm</a> This dataset contains the hourly NLDAS forcings and USGS streamflow data. For training with our codebase, we recommend using the combined NetCDF file, but you can also use the csv files (but it will take much longer to load the data).   Related Datasets: <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4071885">https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4071885</a> contains the models trained with the forcings and streamflow from this dataset.

opencc-by-4.0Oct 2020View details →

Models and Predictions for "Rainfall-Runoff Prediction at Multiple Timescales with a Single Long Short-Term Memory Network"

Models and Predictions for the paper "Rainfall-Runoff Prediction at Multiple Timescales with a Single Long Short-Term Memory Network" GitHub: <a href="https://github.com/gauchm/mts-lstm">https://github.com/gauchm/mts-lstm</a> Results The file `results.tar.gz` contains: <ul> <li>ensembled predictions for all models (generated from the models in `models/` using the <a href="https://neuralhydrology.readthedocs.io/en/latest/api/neuralhydrology.utils.nh_results_ensemble.html">`nh-results-ensemble` command</a>). These predictions were used in the `results-analysis.ipynb` and `odelstm-analysis.ipynb` notebooks on the GitHub repository for the paper.</li> <li>the NWM predictions <ul> <li>`nwm_chrt_v2_1h.p` contains hourly NWM predictions for the CAMELS basins between 1993 and 2007. The file is derived from the reanalysis on <a href="https://docs.opendata.aws/nwm-archive/readme.html">aws</a>.</li> <li>`nwm_results.p` is derived from `nwm_chrt_v2_1h.p` and contains hourly and day-aggregated results and performance metrics for the test period of our paper.</li> </ul> </li> <li>a file `signatures.p` with hydrologic signatures that were calculated from the models' predictions. These signatures were used in the `results-analysis.ipynb` notebook on the GitHub repository for the paper.</li> </ul> Models The tar.gz files prefixed with `models-` contain the trained MTS-LSTM, sMTS-LSTM, and ODE-LSTM models from our experiments. For each experiment, there exist 10 model setups (one for each random seed). Besides the trained models, each model's tar.gz also contains the predictions on the test or validation perod and the configuration file used to train the model. MTS-LSTM <ul> <li>`mtslstm_seed*` -- the MTS-LSTM from the benchmarking section of the paper (using one forcings product, trained on daily and hourly data)</li> <li>`mtslstm_multiforcing_seed*` -- the MTS-LSTM from the section on per-timescale input data, experiment "multi-forcing B" (using just NLDAS as hourly inputs)</li> <li>`mtslstm_multiforcing_dailyhourly_seed*` -- the MTS-LTSM from the section on per-timescale input data, experiment "multi-forcing A" (ingesting daily forcings into the hourly model)</li> <li>`mtsltsm_136H1D_seed*` -- the MTS-LTSM from the section on prediction at other timescales (1-, 3-, 6-hourly and daily predictions)</li> </ul> sMTS-LSTM <ul> <li>`smtslstm_seed*` -- the sMTS-LSTM from the benchmarking section of the paper (using one forcings product, trained on daily and hourly data)</li> <li>`smtslstm_noregularization_seed*` -- the sMTS-LSTM from the section on cross-timescale consistency (trained without regularization)</li> </ul> Time-Continuous Experiments The file `models-timecontinuous.tar.gz` contains one sub-folder per basin on which we conducted our initial experiments. Each basin directory contains: <ul> <li>Experiment A (trained on daily and 12-hourly, evaluated on hourly): <ul> <li>`odelstm_a_seed*` -- the ODE-LSTM from experiment A</li> <li>`mtslstm_a_seed*` -- the MTS-LSTM from experiment A</li> </ul> </li> <li>Experiment B (trained on hourly and 3-hourly, evaluated on daily) <ul> <li>`odelstm_b_seed*` -- the ODE-LSTM from experiment B</li> <li>`mtslstm_b_seed*` -- the MTS-LSTM from experiment B</li> </ul> </li> </ul> Related Datasets: <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4072700">https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4072700</a> contains the hourly NLDAS forcings and USGS streamflow required to use the models from this dataset.

opencc-by-4.0May 2020View details →

Integrating QSAR models predicting acute contact toxicity and mode of action profiling in honey bees (A. mellifera): Data curation using open source databases, performance testing and validation

This excel file (DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3755675">https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3755675</a>) provides the collection of raw data used for developing the first integrative Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) model using EFSA's OpenFoodTox, US-EPA ECOTOX and Pesticide Properties DataBase i) to predict acute contact toxicity (LD50) and ii) to profile the Mode of Action (MoA) of pesticides active substances in honey bees (Apis mellifera). Chemical identifiers (e.g. SMILES, CAS n., InChI) and acute contact toxicity data (LD50) on honey bees were used to develop and validate i) a two-category QSAR model (toxic/non-toxic; n=411) (sensitivity =0.93), specificity =0.85), balanced accuracy =0.90), Matthews correlation coefficient MCC=0.78), and ii) a regression-based model (n=113) (R2=0.74; MAE=0.52). Similarly, current study proposes the first MoA profiling for 113 pesticides active substances and the first harmonised MoA classification scheme for acute contact toxicity in honey bees, including LD50s data points from three different databases such as EFSA's OpenFoodTox, US-EPA ECOTOX and Pesticide Properties DataBase. Such classification allows to further define MoAs and the target site of Plant Protection Products (PPPs) active substances, thus enabling regulators and scientists to refine chemical grouping and toxicity extrapolations for single chemicals and component-based mixture risk assessment of multiple chemicals. The full data collection and analysis of QSAR models, toxicity data (LD50) and Mode of Action (Moa) data are described in Carnesecchi et al., 2020 (DOI: doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139243). This work was supported by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) [contract number: OC/EFSA/SCER/2018/01 and NP/EFSA/AFSCO/2016/02 (Edoardo Carnesecchi)].

openother-openOct 2020View details →

Images from Newspaper Navigator predicted as maps, with human corrected labels

The Dataset contains images derived from the Newspaper Navigator (news-navigator.labs.loc.gov/), a dataset of images drawn from the Library of Congress Chronicling America collection (chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/).  <blockquote> [The Newspaper Navigator dataset] consists of extracted visual content for 16,358,041 historic newspaper pages in Chronicling America. The visual content was identified using an object detection model trained on annotations of World War 1-era Chronicling America pages, including annotations made by volunteers as part of the <a href="https://labs.loc.gov/work/experiments/beyond-words/">Beyond Words</a> crowdsourcing project. source:<a href="https://news-navigator.labs.loc.gov/"> https://news-navigator.labs.loc.gov/</a> </blockquote> One of these categories is 'maps'. In the original training data for Newspaper Navigator, there were relatively few labelled examples of maps. The predictions for maps have an <a href="https://github.com/LibraryOfCongress/newspaper-navigator">Average Precision of 69.5%, and 34 images in the validation data</a>. This dataset contains a sample of these images which have been predicted as 'maps'. It also includes additional labels which indicate whether the predicted map image is a 'map' or 'not a map'.  The data is organised as follows: <ul> <li>The images themselves can be found in 'newspaper_maps.zip' </li> <li>`2020_30_10_13_19_228_sample.json` contains metadata about each image drawn from the Newspaper Navigator Dataset.</li> <li>map_labels.csv contains the labels for the images as a CSV file  </li> </ul>

Data from: Coral cover surveys corroborate predictions on reef adaptive potential to thermal stress

As anomalous heat waves are causing the widespread decline of coral reefs worldwide, there is an urgent need to identify coral populations tolerant to thermal stress. Heat stress adaptive potential is the degree of tolerance expected from evolutionary processes and, for a given reef, depends on the arrival of propagules from reefs exposed to recurrent thermal stress. For this reason, assessing spatial patterns of thermal adaptation and reef connectivity is of paramount importance to inform conservation strategies. In this work, we applied a seascape genomics framework to characterize the spatial patterns of thermal adaptation and connectivity for coral reefs of New Caledonia (Southern Pacific). In this approach, remote sensing of seascape conditions was combined with genomic data from three coral species. For every reef of the region, we computed a probability of heat stress adaptation, and two indices forecasting inbound and outbound connectivity. We then compared our indicators to field survey data, and observed that decrease of coral cover after heat stress was lower at reefs predicted with high probability of adaptation and inbound connectivity. Last, we discussed how these indicators can be used to inform local conservation strategies and preserve the adaptive potential of New Caledonian reefs.

Data from: Maternally-derived anti-helminth antibodies predict offspring survival in a wild mammal

The transfer of antibodies from mother to offspring provides crucial protection against infection to offspring during early life. However, few studies have tested the consequences of variation in maternal antibody transfer for offspring fitness in the wild. Further, separating out the immunoprotective effects of antibodies from their association with nutritional resources provided by the mother is difficult. Here, we measured plasma levels of total and parasite-specific antibody levels in neonatal (<10 days old) wild Soay sheep over 25 years to quantify variation in maternal antibody transfer and test its association with offspring survival. Maternal antibody transfer was predicted by maternal age and previous antibody responses, and was consistent within mothers across years. Neonatal total IgG antibody levels were positively related to early growth, suggesting they reflected nutritional transfer. Neonatal parasite-specific IgG levels positively predicted first year offspring survival, independent of lamb weight, total IgG levels and subsequent lamb parasite-specific antibody levels. This relationship was in part mediated via an indirect negative association with parasite burden. We show that among-female variation in maternal transfer of immunity can have long-term effects on offspring growth, parasite burden and fitness in the wild, and is likely to impact naturally-occurring host and parasite dynamics.

Data from: Historical climatic instability predicts the inverse latitudinal pattern in speciation rate of modern mammalian biota

Evolutionary rate explanations for latitudinal diversity gradients predict faster speciation and diversification rates in richer, older, and more stable tropical regions (climatic stability hypothesis). Numerous modern lineages have emerged in high latitudes, however, suggesting that climatic oscillations can drive population divergence, at least among extratropical species (glacial refugia hypothesis). This conflicting evidence suggests that geographical patterns of evolutionary rates are more complicated than previously thought. Here, we reconstructed the complex evolutionary dynamics of a comprehensive dataset of modern mammals, both terrestrial and marine. We performed global and regional regression analyses to investigate how climatic instability could have indirectly influenced contemporary diversity gradients through its effects on evolutionary rates. In particular, we explored global and regional patterns of the relationships between species richness and assemblage-level evolutionary rates and between evolutionary rates and climatic instability. We found an inverse relationship between evolutionary rates and species richness, especially in the terrestrial domain. Additionally, climatic instability was strongly associated with the highest evolutionary rates at high terrestrial latitudes, supporting the glacial refugia hypothesis there. At low latitudes, evolutionary rates were unrelated to climatic stability. The inverse relationship between evolutionary rates and the modern latitudinal diversity gradient casts doubt on the idea that higher evolutionary rates in the tropics underlie the current diversity patterns of modern mammals. Alternatively, the longer time spans for diversity to accumulate in the older and more stable tropics (and not high diversification rates) may explain the latitudinal diversity gradient.

A novel clinical model for predicting malignancy of solitary pulmonary nodules: A multicenter study in Chinese population

Supplementary Data   Supplement Figure 1: The calibration curves for the novel model in training cohort (A), internal validation cohort (B) and external validation cohort (C), respectively.   Supplement Table 1. Demographics and clinical characteristics of patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center.   Supplement Table 2. Demographics and clinical characteristics of patients from Henan Tumor Hospital.   Supplement Table 3. Comparison of the sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio of the three models analyzed in this study   Supplement Table 4. The correlation between our model, PKUPH model and Mayo model

Prediction of cardiovascular diseases by integrating multi-modal features with machine learning methods

Electrocardiogram (ECG) and Phonocardiogram (PCG) play important roles in early prevention and diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases. As the development of machine learning technique, detection of cardiovascular diseases from ECG and PCG has been attracted much attention. However, current available methods are mostly based on single data resource. It is desirable to develop efficient multi-modal machine learning methods to predict and diagnose cardiovascular diseases. In this study, we propose a novel multi-modal method for predicting cardiovascular diseases based on ECG and PCG features. By building up conventional neural networks, we extract ECG and PCG deep coding features respectively. The genetic algorithm is used to screen the combined features and obtain the best feature subset. Then support vector machine makes classification decision. Experimental results show that compared with using single-modal features ECG and PCG, the performance of this method reaches an AUC value of 0.936 when using multi-modal data resources. This dataset is developed from a real-world dataset which was assembled by PhysioNet/CinC Challenge in 2016. The original dataset can be downloaded from website (<a href="http://www.physionet.org/challenge/2016/">http://www.physionet.org/challenge/2016/</a>).

Predicting tropical tree mortality with leaf spectroscopy

Do tropical trees close to death have a distinct change to their leaf spectral signature? Tree mortality rates have been increasing in tropical forests globally, reducing the global carbon sink. Upcoming hyperspectral satellites could be used to predict regions close to experiencing extensive tree mortality during periods of stress, such as drought. Here we show, for a tropical rainforest in Borneo, how imminent tropical tree mortality impacts leaf physiological traits and reflectance. We measured leaf reflectance (400-2500 nm), light saturated photosynthesis (Asat), leaf dark respiration (Rdark), leaf mass area (LMA) and % leaf water across five campaigns in a six-month period during which there were two causes of tree mortality: a major natural drought and a co-incident tree stem girdling treatment. We find that prior to mortality, there were significant (P<0.05) leaf spectral changes in the red (650-700 nm), the NIR (1000 -1400 nm) and SWIR bands (2000-2400 nm) and significant reductions in the potential carbon balance of the leaves (increased Rdark and reduced Asat). We show that the partial least squares regression technique can predict mortality in tropical trees across different species and functional groups with medium precision but low accuracy (r2 of 0.65 and RMSE/mean of 0.58). However, most tree death in our study was due to girdling, which is not a natural form of death. More research is needed to determine if this spectroscopy technique can be applied to tropical forests in general.

Accurate and Cost-Effective NMR Chemical Shift Predictions for Proteins using Molecules-in-Molecules Fragmentation-Based Method

Files and coordinates associated with the paper titled 'Accurate and Cost-Effective NMR Chemical Shift Predictions for Proteins  using Molecules-in-Molecules Fragmentation Based Method. '

Predictive genetic plan for a captive population of the Chinese goral (Naemorhedus griseus) and prescriptive action for ex situ and in situ conservation management in Thailand

Captive breeding programs for endangered species can increase population numbers for eventual reintroduction to the wild. Captive populations are typically small and isolated, which results in inbreeding and reduction of genetic variability, and may lead to an increased risk of extinction. The Omkoi Wildlife Breeding Center maintains the only Thai captive Chinese goral (Naemorhedus griseus) population, and has plans to reintroduce individuals into natural isolated populations. Genetic variability was assessed within the captive population using microsatellite data. Although no bottleneck was observed, genetic variability was low (allelic richness = 7.091 ± 0.756, He = 0.455 ± 0.219; He < Ho) and 11 microsatellite loci were informative that likely reflect inbreeding. Estimates of small effective population size and limited numbers of founders, combined with wild-born individuals within subpopulations, tend to cause reduction of genetic variability over time in captive programs. This leads to low reproductive fitness and limited ability to adapt to environmental change, thereby increasing the risk of extinction. Management of captive populations as evolutionarily significant units with diverse genetic backgrounds offers an effective strategy for population recovery. Relocation of individuals among subpopulations, or introduction of newly captured wild individuals into the captive program will help to ensure the future security of Chinese goral. Implications for future conservation actions for the species are discussed herein.

Pre-closure fishing pressure predicts effects of marine protected areas

1. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) can be effective tools for marine resource management. However, despite evidence of the positive effects of MPAs, such as increases in body sizes of organisms targeted by fisheries, there is often heterogeneity in biological outcomes among them. 2. Because fishing can drastically impact fish populations, the goal of this study was to determine if the levels of exploitation prior to protection could predict variation in the magnitude of MPA effects. 3. Using a diver operated stereo-video camera system, we compared sizes of fishes targeted by anglers within seven MPAs spanning the Southern California Bight to nearby comparison areas (non-MPAs). We used fine-scale data on pre-closure fishing pressure to test responses of fishes to protection along a gradient of exploitation. 4. Fish size responded to protection in proportion to pre-closure fishing pressure, with MPAs in areas with high pre-closure fishing having greater responses in average lengths and size distributions than those in areas with low fishing pressure. 5. This response was evident in species heavily targeted by recreational fishing, but not in species that were not targeted in fisheries. 6. Synthesis and applications: Pre-closure fishing pressure of an area can impact the efficacy of MPAs, and, when available, should be considered when predicting and evaluating MPA performance. Prioritizing heavily exploited areas for protection when implementing spatial management tools could maximize ecological outcomes.05-Nov-2019