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opencc-by-4.0Dec 2022View details →

Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically-calibrated ice-sheet model

========================================================================= Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically-calibrated ice-sheet model =========================================================================----------------------- INTRODUCTION -----------------------This dataset contains the data and scripts required to reproduce the figures and tables presented in the study: "Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically-calibrated ice-sheet model" in The Cryosphere.We perform an ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet between 1950 and 3014, forced by a panel of CMIP6 climate models, starting from present-day geometry with the Kori-ULB ice-sheet model v0.9. We calibrate our ensemble in a Bayesian framework to produce observationally-calibrated Antarctic projections used to investigate the future trajectory of the Antarctic ice sheet related to uncertainties in the future balance between sub-shelf melting and ice discharge on the one hand, and the surface mass balance on the other. All simulations are performed at a spatial resolution of 16 km.Hindcasts of the behaviour of the AIS over the period 1950-2014 CE are reproduced using changes in oceanic and atmospheric boundary conditions derived from the CMIP5 climate model NorESM1-M. As of the year 2015 CE, climate projections derived from a subset of CMIP6 climate models (MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, CESM2-WACCM and UKESM1-0-LL) are used as forcing until the year 2300 CE. Afterwards, no climate trend is applied. The forcing applied is derived from both the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5 and 1-2.6 scenarios. ------------------------------ PROVIDED SCRIPTS:  ------------------------------ - 'KoriModelAll.m' and 'KoriInputParams.m': Kori-ULB ice flow model (more info at https://github.com/FrankPat/Kori-ULB)  - 'Compute_Bayesian_Weight.m': calculation of the ensemble likelihood weights used in the Bayesian calibration.  - 'Plot_parameter_space_distributions.m': calculation and plots of prior and posterior parameter  probability distributions.  - 'Plot_sea_level_distributions.m': calculation and plots of prior and posterior sea-level distributions.  - 'Plot_mass_balance_components_distributions.m': calculation and plots of mass balance components distributions.  - 'Plot_mean_thickness_change.m': calculation and plots of calibrated mean thickness change.  - 'Plot_ungrounded_probability.m': calculation and plots of the marginal probability of being ungrounded.  - 'Plot_SMB_sensitivity.m': Calculation and plots of surface mass balance sensitivity.  - 'run_MISMIPplus.m' and 'MISMIPplus.m': run and compare MISMIP+ experiment------------------------- PROVIDED DATA:  -------------------------<ul><li>'LHSensemble.mat': 100x9 matrices containing the values of the 100-member ensemble sampled (using maximin Latin Hypercube) within the parameter space in Table 1.<ul><li>1rst column ((:,1)) contains values of atmospheric present-day climatology (CLIMatm): MARv3.11 (1) - RACMOv2.3p2 (2)</li><li>2nd column ((:,2)) contains values of oceanic present-day climatology (CLIMocn): Jourdain2020 (1) - Schmidtko2014 (2)</li><li>3rd column ((:,3)) contains values of the atmospheric lapse rate (°C/km)</li><li>4th column ((:,4)) contains values of the thickness of the thermally-active layer influencing surface refreezing (m)</li><li>5th column ((:,5)) contains values of the contains values of the Degree day factor for the melting of ice (mm/PDD)</li><li>6th column ((:,6)) contains values of the contains values of the Degree day factor for the melting of snow (mm/PDD)</li><li>7th column ((:,7)) contains values of the applied Sub-shelf melt parameterisation: Quadratic-local Antarctic slope parameterisation (1) - PICO model (2) - Plume model (3) - ISMIP6 Nonlocal quadratic parameterisation (4) - ISMIP6 Nonlocal quadratic parameterisation including dependency on local slope (5)</li><li>8th column ((:,8)) contains values of the effective ice-ocean heat flux: [0.1 x 10^-5 - 10 x 10^-5] m/s for gammaT* in PICO - [1 x 10^-4 - 10 x 10^-4] for Cd^1/2Gamma_TS in Plume -  [1 x 10^-4 - 10 x 10^-4] for K in Quadratic-local Antarctic slope parameterisation - [1 x 10^4 - 4 x 10^4] m/yr for gamma0 in ISMIP6 Nonlocal quadratic parameterisation - [1 x 10^6 - 4 x 10^6] m/yr for gamma0 in ISMIP6 Nonlocal quadratic parameterisation with slope dependency</li><li>9th column ((:,9)) contains values of the CMIP6 climate model applied for climate forcing: MRI-ESM2-0 (1) - UKESM1-0-LL (2) - CESM2-WACCM (3) - IPSL-CM6A-LR (4) 'LHval' and 'LHS' contain the absolute values and the values of the parameters scaled linearly between 0 and 1 (0: minimum value, 1:maximum value) of the nine parameters, respectively.  </li></ul></li><li>'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA.mat' contains the following variables describing the evolution of the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the historical period (1950-2014).<ul><li>H_ensemble: 4D matrix of dimension [X, Y, snap_time, ensemble member] with ice thickness field (in meters) for the 100 ensemble members at different years (snap_time). X and Y represent spatial coordinates on a grid.</li><li>MASK_ensemble: 4D matrix of dimension [X, Y, snap_time, ensemble member] with grounded mask field (in meters) for the 100 ensemble members at different years (snap_time). X and Y represent spatial coordinates on a grid.  It distinguishes grounded ice (1: grounded) from ocean or floating ice (0: ocean/floating).</li><li>mbcomp_ensemble: 3D matrix of dimension [time, mbcomp, ensemble member] with timeseries (yearly values at years time) of various mass balance components for the 100 ensemble members (in gigatons per year, Gt/yr).  The components mbcomp include the following ice-sheet aggregated and grounded ice sheet components:                     (1) Ice-sheet aggregated surface mass balance                     (2) Ice-sheet aggregated accumulation                     (3) Ice-sheet aggregated surface melt                     (4) Ice-sheet aggregated runoff                     (5) Ice-sheet aggregated rain                     (6) sub-shelf melt                     (7) dynamic ice loss (calving)                     (8) surface mass balance over the grounded ice sheet                     (9) accumulation over the grounded ice sheet                     (10) surface melt over the grounded ice sheet                     (11) runoff over the grounded ice sheet                     (12) rain over the grounded ice sheet                                 (13) Net mass balance (rate of HAF change)</li><li>SLC_ensemble: 2D matrix of dimension [ensemble member, time] with timeseries (yearly values at years time) of the ice-sheet sea-level contribution (in m)   </li></ul></li><li>'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA_NO_ELEVATION_FEEDBACK.mat': same as 'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the historical period (1950-2014) when neglecting the melt-elevation feedback.  </li><li>'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA_HYDROFRAC.mat': same as 'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the historical period (1950-2014) when including surface melt-driven hydrofracturing of the ice shelves (estimated following Pollard et al., 2015).  </li><li>'CONTROL_ENSEMBLE_DATA.mat': contains the variables H_ensemble, MASK_ensemble, mbcomp_ensemble and SLC_ensemble (as in 'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA') describing the evolution of the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 when considering constant present-day conditions as of the year 2015.  </li><li>'SSP126_ENSEMBLE_DATA.mat': contains the variables H_ensemble, MASK_ensemble, mbcomp_ensemble and SLC_ensemble (as in 'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA') describing the evolution of the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under a SSP1-2.6 scenario.  </li><li>'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA.mat': contains the variables H_ensemble, MASK_ensemble, mbcomp_ensemble and SLC_ensemble (as in 'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA') describing the evolution of the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under a SSP5-8.5 scenario. It also contains the variable Runoff_ensemble, a 4D matrix of dimension [X, Y, snap_time, ensemble member] with surface runoff field (in m/yr i.e.) for the 100 ensemble members at different years (snap_time). X and Y represent spatial coordinates on a grid, as used in Fig. 7.  </li><li>'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_NO_ELEVATION_FEEDBACK.mat': same as 'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under an SSP5-8.5 scenario when neglecting the melt-elevation feedback.  </li><li>'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_HYDROFRAC.mat': same as 'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under an SSP5-8.5 scenario when including surface melt-driven hydrofracturing of the ice shelves (estimated following Pollard et al., 2015).  </li><li>'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_ATM_ONLY.mat': same as 'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under an SSP5-8.5 scenario when considering constant oceanic present-day conditions as of the year 2015.  </li><li>'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_NO_ELEVATION_FEEDBACK_ATM_ONLY.mat': same as 'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under an SSP5-8.5 scenario when neglecting the melt-elevation feedback and considering constant oceanic present-day conditions as of the year 2015.  </li><li>'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_OCEAN_ONLY.mat': same as 'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under an SSP5-8.5 scenario considering constant atmospheric present-day conditions as of the year 2015.  </li><li>'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN.mat' contains the following variables describing the evolution of the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the historical period (1950-2014) integrated over 27 drainage basins (http://imbie.org/imbie-2016/drainage-basins/).<ul><li>SLC_ensemble_basin: 3D matrix of dimension [basin, ensemble member, time] with timeseries (yearly values at years time) of the ice-sheet sea-level contribution (in m) by basin</li><li>mbcomp_ensemble_basin: 4D matrix of dimension [basin, time, mbcomp, ensemble member] with timeseries (yearly values at years time) of various mass balance components for the 100 ensemble members (in gigatons per year, Gt/yr) by basin. The components mbcomp include the same ice-sheet aggregated and grounded ice-sheet components as in 'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA.mat'.  </li></ul></li><li>'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN_NO_ELEVATION_DATA.mat': same as 'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the historical period (1950-2014) when neglecting the melt-elevation feedback.  </li><li>'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN_HYDROFRAC.mat': same as 'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the historical period (1950-2014) when including surface melt-driven hydrofracturing of the ice shelves (estimated following Pollard et al., 2015).  </li><li>'SSP126_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN.mat': contains the variables SLC_ensemble_basin and mbcomp_ensemble_basin (as in 'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA°BASIN') describing the evolution of the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under a SSP1-2.6 scenario.  </li><li>'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN.mat': contains the variables SLC_ensemble_basin and mbcomp_ensemble_basin (as in 'HIST_ENSEMBLE_DATA') describing the evolution of the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under a SSP5-8.5 scenario.  </li><li>'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN_NO_ELEVATION_FEEDBACK.mat': same as 'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under a SSP5-8.5 scenario when neglecting the melt-elevation feedback.  </li><li>'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN_HYDROFRAC.mat': same as 'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under an SSP5-8.5 scenario when including surface melt-driven hydrofracturing of the ice shelves (estimated following Pollard et al., 2015).  </li><li>'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN_ATM_ONLY.mat': same as 'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under an SSP5-8.5 scenario when considering constant oceanic present-day conditions as of the year 2015.  </li><li>'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN_NO_ELEVATION_FEEDBACK_ATM_ONLY.mat': same as 'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under an SSP5-8.5 scenario when neglecting the melt-elevation feedback and considering constant oceanic present-day conditions as of the year 2015.  </li><li>'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN_OCEAN_ONLY.mat': same as 'SSP585_ENSEMBLE_DATA_BASIN.mat' for the 100-member ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2015-3014 under an SSP5-8.5 scenario considering constant atmospheric present-day conditions as of the year 2015.  </li><li>'GCM_SSPXXX_mean_aTs.mat': Timeseries of the regionally-averaged (between 90–60°S) annual near-surface (2-m) air temperature anomaly (°C) projected by the climate model 'GCM' from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) between 2015 and 2300 under the SSPXXX emission scenario, compared to the 1995-2014 reference period. SSPXXX may be 'SSP126' and 'SSP585' and GCM may be 'MRI-ESM2-0', 'CESM2-WACCM', 'IPSL-CM6A-LR', or 'UKESM1-0-LL'.  </li><li>'CALIBRATION DATA.mat': values ('val'), uncertainty ('sigma'), beginning ('year1') and end ('year2') of the average time period of the 12 regionally and temporally aggregated IMBIE data used in the Bayesian calibration (Table 2 in this study, coming from Table 2 from Otosaka et al., 2023)  </li><li>'INIT_MAR_aNorESM1-M_1950.mat' and 'INIT_RACMO_aNorESM1-M_1950.mat': Ice-sheet initial states at year 1950 obtained with the 1995-2014 atmospheric climatology from MARv3.11(Kittel eta l.,2021) or RACMOv2.3p2 (van Wessem et al., 2018), respectively, adjusted with a 1945-1955 anomaly from NorESM1-M. H is the ice thickness (in meters), B is the bedrock topography (in meters), and u is the surface velocity (in m/yr). These files were provided as input files to Kori-ULB to produce the projections. More info on the input files and their variables can be found here: https://github.com/FrankPat/Kori-ULB.</li></ul>---------------------------------------------------------- MATLAB FUNCTIONS USED IN SCRIPTS:  ----------------------------------------------------------- imagescn: imagesc with transparent NaNs, by Chad Greene (2023), downloaded from MATLAB Central File Exchange (https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/61293-imagescn),  - brewermap: provides all ColorBrewer colorschemes for MATLAB, by Stephen23. Downloaded from https://github.com/DrosteEffect/BrewerMap. - crameri: returns perceptually-uniform scientific colormaps created by Fabio Crameri (requires CrameriColourMaps8.0.mat)---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTERNAL DATA NOT CONTAINED IN THIS REPOSITORY: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BedMachine data used for the present-day grounding lines in Figures 2 and 7: It is BedMachine v2 (Morlighem et al., 2020) and can be found here: https://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0756/versions/2. - The delineation of the 27 Zwally Basins used to identify and separate the West and East Antarctic ice sheets and the Antarctic Peninsula can be found at http://imbie.org/imbie-2016/drainage-basins/ - Outputs from MAR(CNRM-CM6-1) and MAR(CESM2) used in Figures 7 and S10. The data can be downloaded at 10.5281/zenodo.4529004 and 10.5281/zenodo.4529002, respectively. It was then interpolated to the 16-km grid used by Kori-ULB. - CESM2-WACCM outputs used in Figure 7 were downloaded from the CMIP6 search interface (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/) and interpolated to the 16-km grid used by Kori-ULB. - The CMIP6 forcing data used in this study (and plotted in Figures S6 and S7) are accessible through the CMIP6 search interface (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/). They have been interpolated to the interpolated to the 16-km grid used by Kori-ULB.--------------------- REFERENCES:  ---------------------Kittel, C., Amory, C., Agosta, C., Jourdain, N. C., Hofer, S., Delhasse, A., Doutreloup, S., Huot, P.-V., Lang, C., Fichefet, T., and Fettweis, X.: Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 15, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021, 2021.Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Binder, T. et al. Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet. Nat. Geosci. 13, 132–137 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8Otosaka, I. N., Shepherd, A., Ivins, E. R., Schlegel, N.-J., Amory, C., van den Broeke, M. R., Horwath, M., Joughin, I., King, M. D., Krinner, G., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Rignot, E., Scambos, T., Simon, K. M., Smith, B. E., Sørensen, L. S., Velicogna, I., Whitehouse, P. L., A, G., Agosta, C., Ahlstrøm, A. P., Blazquez, A., Colgan, W., Engdahl, M. E., Fettweis, X., Forsberg, R., Gallée, H., Gardner, A., Gilbert, L., Gourmelen, N., Groh, A., Gunter, B. C., Harig, C., Helm, V., Khan, S. A., Kittel, C., Konrad, H., Langen, P. L., Lecavalier, B. S., Liang, C.-C., Loomis, B. D., McMillan, M., Melini, D., Mernild, S. H., Mottram, R., Mouginot, J., Nilsson, J., Noël, B., Pattle, M. E., Peltier, W. R., Pie, N., Roca, M., Sasgen, I., Save, H. V., Seo, K.-W., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E. J. O., Schröder, L., Simonsen, S. B., Slater, T., Spada, G., Sutterley, T. C., Vishwakarma, B. D., van Wessem, J. M., Wiese, D., van der Wal, W., and Wouters, B.: Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023.Pollard, D., DeConto, R. M., and Alley, R. B.: Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 412, 112–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035, 2015.   van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., Noël, B. P. Y., van Meijgaard, E., Amory, C., Birnbaum, G., Jakobs, C. L., Krüger, K., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lhermitte, S., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Medley, B., Reijmer, C. H., van Tricht, K., Trusel, L. D., van Ulft, L. H., Wouters, B., Wuite, J., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016), The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018.

opencc-by-4.0Mar 2024View details →

Datasets of the Doctoral Dissertation: "A Geoarchaeological Approach to the Materiality and Historical Ecology of Earth Mounds: The Colina da Monte Site, Uruguay."

These PDF files contain the datasets, workflows, and codes from Rocío M. López Cabral's Doctoral Dissertation project: "A Geoarchaeological Approach to the Materiality and Historical Ecology of Earth Mounds: The Colina da Monte Site, Uruguay."

opencc-by-4.0Feb 2024View details →

Prospective with historical control, case-matched cohort study of the tertiary survey beneficial in critically severe trauma patients.

Raw data, Tertiary survey record form, and STROBE checklist of "Prospective with historical control, case-matched cohort study of the tertiary survey beneficial in critically severe trauma patients" study.

FIGURE 1 in Developing a database of Australian grasshopper occurrences from historic field survey notebooks spanning 54 years (Orthoptera: Acrididae, Morabidae, Pyrgomorphidae, Tetrigidae)

FIGURE 1 First page of field notebook number 156. This trip was conducted from Port Augusta to Norseman, Western Australia, by Ken Key, Murray S Upton and Jim Balderson from 28/9/1963 to 23/10/1963. Plant specimens were identified by Nancy T Burbidge. On 28th of September, they started from Mildura, took Arumpo road at a vehicle odometer 6827 and travelled 6 mi to reach 6833. Site description and general observations for collection at stop 6833: Flat with sparse belah and Callitris robusta to 25 ft on pale brown sandy loam with?Cassia sp. abundant to 8 ft and regrowth. Ground layer of Bassia spp. and Kochia spp. to 6 in. and occasional Kochia?pyramidata to 2 ft barley grass and succulents drying off, considerable bare ground. Return. Grasshoppers collected at this site: Cratilopus sp. 1, Chortoicetes terminifera, Caperrala sp. 1 (j.), Apotropis vittata (j.).

FIGURE 4 in Developing a database of Australian grasshopper occurrences from historic field survey notebooks spanning 54 years (Orthoptera: Acrididae, Morabidae, Pyrgomorphidae, Tetrigidae)

FIGURE 4 Comparison of survey consistency among different surveyors. (a) Between-site distance maintained by different lead surveyors. (b) The total number of grasshoppers recorded per site by different lead surveyors. Numbers in the middle of boxplot show median value. (c) Seasonal variation in the number of species counted per site by different lead surveyors. (d) Proportion of total surveys conducted in each season by different surveyors. Values on pie charts show the number of surveys conducted by each surveyor. Seasons are indicated by colours.

FIGURE 3 in Developing a database of Australian grasshopper occurrences from historic field survey notebooks spanning 54 years (Orthoptera: Acrididae, Morabidae, Pyrgomorphidae, Tetrigidae)

FIGURE 3 Spatial bias in historic grasshopper surveys in Western Australia and Tasmania (inset). (a) Thiessen polygon network drawn based on survey sites as centre of each polygon, showing the intensity of survey activity; the smaller polygons, the more intensive the survey activity because each polygon represents a sampling site. Colours in the background represent bioregions. (b) Bioregions bias: Positive scores indicate positive survey bias (higher survey effort than expected from a random allocation) and vice versa. Bars on right side of vertical dash line represent Tasmania. Bioregions were abbreviated as: AvWh, Avon Wheatbelt; BL, Ben Lomond; Ca, Carnarvon; CeKi, Central Kimberley; CeRa, Central Ranges; Co, Coolgardie; Da, Dampierland; EsPl, Esperance plains; F, Furneaux; Ga, Gascoyne; GeSa, Geraldton Sandplains; GiDe, Gibson Desert; GrSaDe, Great Sandy Desert; GrViDe, Great Victorian Desert; Ha, Hampton; JaFo, Jarrah Forest; K, King; LiSaDe, Little Sandy Desert; Ma, Mallee; Mu, Murchison; NoKi, Northern Kimberley; Nu, Nullarbor; OrViPl, Ord Victoria Plain; Pi, Pilbara; SwCoPl, Southwest Coastal Plain; Ta, Tanami; TCH, Tasmanian Central Highlands; TNM, Tasmanian Northern Midlands; TNS, Tasmanian Northern Slopes; TSE, Tasmanian South East; TSR, Tasmanian Southern Ranges; TW, Tasmanian West; ViBo, Victorian Bonaparte; Wa, Warren; Ya, Yalgoo.

FIGURE 2 in Developing a database of Australian grasshopper occurrences from historic field survey notebooks spanning 54 years (Orthoptera: Acrididae, Morabidae, Pyrgomorphidae, Tetrigidae)

FIGURE 2 Grasshopper species count and survey effort in Western Australia and Tasmania (inset) per 50-km grid cells. Only records with both genus and species (either confirmed based on formal taxonomy for genus and species or putative taxonomy used for genus or species) names were included in these analyses. (a) Species richness (total number of recorded species per cell); (b) total number of survey sites per cell; (c) for each cell, the average number of species per survey site. No survey was conducted in white cells. Bioregions were abbreviated as: Ca, Carnarvon; CeKi, Central Kimberley; Co, Coolgardie; Da, Dampierland; EsPl, Esperance Plains; Ga, Gascoyne; Ha, Hampton; Nu, Nullarbor; Pi, Pilbara; SwCoPl, Southwest Coastal Plains; ViBo, Victorian Bonaparte.

opencc-zeroApr 2024View details →

Data from: Feather corticosterone is lower in translocated and historical populations of the endangered Laysan duck (Anas laysanensis)

Identifying reliable bioindicators of population status is a central goal of conservation physiology. Physiological stress measures are often used as metrics of individual health and can assist in managing endangered species if linked to fitness traits. We analysed feather corticosterone, a cumulative physiological stress metric, of individuals from historical, translocated, and source populations of an endangered endemic Hawaiian bird, the Laysan duck (Anas laysanensis). We hypothesised that feather corticosterone would reflect the improved reproduction and survival rates observed in populations translocated to Midway and Kure Atolls from Laysan Island. We also predicted less physiological stress in historical Laysan birds collected before ecological conditions deteriorated and the population bottleneck. All hypotheses were supported: we found lower feather corticosterone in the translocated populations and historical samples than in those from recent Laysan samples. This suggests that current Laysan birds are experiencing greater physiological stress than historical Laysan and recently translocated birds. Our initial analysis suggests that feather corticosterone may be an indicator of population status and could be used as a non-invasive physiological monitoring tool for this species with further validation. Furthermore, these preliminary results, combined with published demographic data, suggest that current Laysan conditions may not be optimal for this species.

opencc-zeroApr 2024View details →

Historical baleen plates indicate that once abundant Antarctic blue and fin whales demonstrated distinct migratory and foraging strategies

Southern hemisphere blue (Balaenoptera musculus intermedia) and fin (Balaenoptera physalus) whales are the largest predators in the Southern Ocean, with similarities in morphology and distribution. Yet, understanding of their life history and foraging is limited due to current low abundances and limited ecological data. To address these gaps, historic Antarctic blue (n = 5) and fin (n = 5) whale baleen plates, collected in 1947–1948 and recently rediscovered in the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, were analyzed for bulk (δ13C and δ15N) stable isotopes. Regular oscillations in isotopic ratios, interpreted as annual cycles, revealed that baleen plates contain approximately six years (14.35 ± 1.20 cm yr–1) of life history data in blue whales and four years (16.52 ± 1.86 cm yr–1) in fin whales. Isotopic results suggest that: 1) in the 1940s, blue and fin whales fed at the same trophic level but in slightly different habitats, 2) fin whales appear to have had more regular annual migrations, and 3) fin whales may have migrated to ecologically distinct sub-Antarctic waters annually while some blue whales may have resided year-round in the Southern Ocean. These results reveal differences in ecological niche and life history strategies between Antarctic blue and fin whales during a period when their populations were more abundant than today, and before major human-driven climatic changes occurred in the Southern Ocean.

opencc-by-nd-4.0Jun 2011View details →

Connection - The First Historic Photographic Art Masterpiece on AI

Connection, the First Visionary Artwork of Artificial Intelligence. Connection is a groundbreaking photographic work created in 2011, by the french artist N.P. , both conceptually and historically, that stands as the first artistic exploration of the profound philosophical, existential, and ethical questions surrounding artificial intelligence. Created more than a decade before the advent of ChatGPT and the widespread discourse on AI’s societal implications, this visionary piece foresaw the critical dialogue that would emerge between humanity and the intelligent systems it creates.   The Process: An Act of Disappearance The creation of Connection is itself an act of profound metaphorical resonance. The artist, who endures the daily constraints of a physically dysfunctional body, performed an intensely physical act during the long exposure process of the photograph. Through continuous, deliberate motion, the artist erased their own presence from the final image, leaving only the traces of energy, light, and movement behind. This disappearance is not merely technical—it is philosophical. The artist’s vanishing within the act of creation evokes a haunting parallel: as humanity breathes life into superintelligent systems, it may one day witness its own obsolescence, much as the artist’s physical form is subsumed by the ephemeral flow captured in the image.   The work thus operates on multiple levels: as a profoundly personal act of endurance, as a meditation on the fragility of human existence, and as a prophetic statement on the relationship between creator and creation.   A Metaphor for Humanity and Artificial Intelligence Connection serves as a visual and conceptual metaphor for humanity’s pursuit of superintelligence. Just as the artist vanishes within the act of creation, humanity’s drive to engineer machines of unprecedented capability raises questions about the long-term implications for the Homo sapiens sapiens species. Could the very act of creating an intelligence greater than our own lead to humanity’s symbolic, or even literal, disappearance? This work prefigures the ethical dilemmas and existential risks posed by the rise of artificial intelligence, embedding them within a singular aesthetic statement years before these concerns entered mainstream awareness.   The Visual Language of Connection The composition of Connection reflects a synthesis of order and chaos, evoking both the structured pathways of neural networks and the unpredictable dynamism of organic life. The image appears simultaneously timeless and forward-looking, embodying the energy flows and fractal repetitions found in both biological systems and AI architectures. It is an invitation to consider the continuity between human creativity and algorithmic processes, suggesting a shared language of pattern and complexity that transcends the boundaries of biology and computation.   A Historic and Pioneering Artwork Connection is more than a photograph; it is a declaration of artistic and intellectual foresight. As the earliest known artistic exploration of the intersection between human creativity and artificial intelligence, this work occupies a unique place in art history. It predates not only the public awareness of AI but also the technological frameworks, such as large language models, that now define our contemporary moment. In this sense, Connection is both prophetic and timeless, a rare achievement that anticipates the central questions of our era while remaining deeply rooted in the enduring struggles of the human condition.   Enduring Legacy Through its pioneering vision, Connection challenges us to reflect on the future of human identity in a world increasingly shaped by its creations. It speaks to collectors, scholars, and thinkers across disciplines—art, technology, and philosophy—inviting them to engage with its layers of meaning. As both an artistic and historical artifact, Connection marks the beginning of a vital conversation, one that will define the trajectory of human and artificial intelligence relations for generations to come.

opencc-by-4.0Feb 2023View details →

A list of taxa currently and historically regulated under South Africa's National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act, Alien & Invasive Species Regulations

This information is lists of alien species regulated in South Africa under the National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act in an accessible form. The first worksheet is essentially metadata. The second worksheet is intended to be a link between any taxa listed or proposed for listing and various taxonomic backbones. The third worksheet is intended to provide a list of taxonomically verified names linked to the current lists. The other worksheets link to particular versions of the regulations (including version sent for public comment that were never published), the intention is for this to be an exact copy (including formatting), please report any inconsistencies between this and the published version to john.wilson2@gmail.com, but before doing so please double-check that what is presented here, is not how it is presented in the lists themselves. The data were extracted by John Wilson at various dates from pdfs in the government gazette, contact john.wilson2@gmail.com For further details please see: Wilson JRU, Kumschick S (2024). The regulation of alien species in South Africa. South African Journal of Science. vol. 120, issue 5/6, Art. #17002. https://doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2024/17002  If only the database is to be cited, cite as Wilson, J. R. (2025) A list of taxa currently and historically regulated under South Africa's National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act, Alien & Invasive Species Regulations. v1.1(20250325) doi: 10.5281/zenodo.15082537 (NOTE CHECK FOR LATEST VERSION ) For a full description of metadata see: the latest species list available at iasreport.sanbi.org.za/ or http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8217211

opencc-by-4.0Oct 2021View details →

Annotated Corpora of Historical Catalan (HisCat) - Llibre dels Fets

This repository is part of the Annotated Corpora of Historical Catalan (HisCat). It contains the first POS-tagged text that is partially manually corrected and used to train Old Catalan POS taggers, described in the following paper: Meelen, Marieke & Pujol i Campeny, Afra, (2021) 'Old Catalan Morphosyntax: developing an annotated corpus' in Journal of Open Humanities Data. This POS-tagged text is the 13th century Llibre dels Fets, a historical chronicle. The version of the text used for this project is Bruguera, J. (1991). El Llibre dels Fets del Rei en Jaume. Barcelona: Barcino. as prepared for the Corpus Informatitzat del Català Antic Torruella, J., Pérez Saldanya, M., & Martines, J. (2009). Corpus Informatitzat del Català Antic. URL: <a href="http://cica.cat/">http://cica.cat/</a>. The subcorpus counts with 164,096 POS-annotated tokens (165,538 tokens including punctuation and folio markers), of which 60,000 have been manually corrected. This subcorpus contains a total of and 4,506 main clauses. POS tagging of this text was done with the Memory-Based Tagger by TiMBL (<a href="https://languagemachines.github.io/mbt/">https://languagemachines.github.io/mbt/</a>). The code accompanying the paper can be found on GitHub: <a href="https://github.com/lothelanor/catalancorpora">https://github.com/lothelanor/catalancorpora</a>). In addition to memory-based tagging, have tried neural-based tagging with TARGER (<a href="https://github.com/achernodub/targer">https://github.com/achernodub/targer</a>) for which we created word embeddings that can be found on <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5615556">Zenodo</a>. Results for memory-based tagging were better, however, which is why this version is uploaded here. <pre> </pre>

opencc-by-4.0Dec 2021View details →

DNA methylation in clonal Duckweed lineages (Lemna minor L.) reflects current and historical environmental exposures.

The following depository contains raw phenotypic data and intermediate DNA methylation data presented in the article "DNA methylation in clonal Duckweed lineages (Lemna minor L.) reflects current and historical environmental exposures." : 1) Raw phenotypic data - Frond_area_Phase1_Phase2 -> Frond area measured at different time points (week 1, 6, 7 and 8) during the experiment. - Frond_number_Phase1_Phase2 -> Frond number measured at different time points (week 1, 6, 7 and 8) during the experiment. 2) Intermediate files obtained from running the epiGBS2 pipeline. The following files are available: - consensus_cluster.renamed.fa ->  epiGBS de novo loci. This file consists of the de novo epiGBS reference sequence file obtained during the de novo reference creation. - methylation.filtMETH -> The filtered DNA methylation data. This data was obtained after filtering the raw DNA methylation data. Cytosines which had a 10X coverage or higher and which were present in 80% of all samples were kept for further analysis. Demultiplexed and raw data were deposited at NCBI: BioProject: PRJNA883550

opencc-zeroNov 2021View details →

Estimating historic N- and S-deposition with publicly available data – An example from Central Germany

The deposition of reactive nitrogen and sulphur has profound effects on ecosystem functioning. In the last decades, monitoring networks providing high resolution spatio-temporal deposition estimates have been set up, but equivalent information on historic deposition is mostly missing. However, understanding vegetation change and mitigate future loss of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning is only possible evaluating the effects of its strongest drivers, which includes deposition in many ecosystems. Here, we combine different data sources to provide estimates of historic deposition in forested ecosystems on a high spatio-temporal scale for a federal state in Central Germany from 1880 to present. We make use of data from field measurement stations together with elevation and precipitation data from the last three decades to build a simple deposition model, validate this model with a model publicly available covering the time range from 2000 to present, and extrapolate deposition from this joint model to the past using European deposition trends from the last 150 years. Our approach can easily be adapted to other data and spatial areas shows how to use raw deposition data together with publicly available data on elevation and precipitation to construct simple deposition models covering recent and historic times in areas and for times for which no data are available.

opencc-zeroOct 2018View details →

FIG. 3 in The d'Orbigny Palaeontological Collection of the National Museum of Natural History and Science, Lisbon, Portugal: Historical perspective and revision of Cretaceous Cephalopoda

FIG. 3. — Cretaceous ammonites of the d'Orbigny Collection of the National Museum of Natural History and Science (Museu Nacional de História Natural e da Ciência): A-D, Neolissoceras grasianum (d'Orbigny, 1840) in ventral (A), lateral (B) and oral (C) views, and original label (D): Nº 357/Ammonites grasanus (d'Orb), Andar 17º Neocomiense, Terreno Cretaceo, Localidade S.t Julien (Hautes Alpes); E-G, Pleurohoplites (Pleurohoplites) renauxianus (d'Orbigny, 1840) in lateral (E) and ventral (F) views, and original label (G): Nº 464/Ammonites Renauxianus (d'Orb), Andar 20º Cenomaniense, Terreno Cretaceo, Localidade Mont-Blainville (Meuse); H-K, Acanthoceras rhotomagense (Brongniart, 1822) in oral (H), lateral (I) and ventral (J) views, and original label (K): Nº 463/Ammonites rhotomagensis (Lamarck), Andar 20º Cenomaniense, Terreno Cretaceo, Localidade Rouen (Seine inf.re). Scale bar: 2 cm.

opencc-zeroOct 2018View details →

FIG. 2 in The d'Orbigny Palaeontological Collection of the National Museum of Natural History and Science, Lisbon, Portugal: Historical perspective and revision of Cretaceous Cephalopoda

FIG. 2. — Cretaceous nautiloid and ammonites of the d'Orbigny Collection of the National Museum of Natural History and Science (Museu Nacional de História Natural e da Ciência): A-C, Angulithes triangularis de Montfort, 1808 in oral (A) and lateral (B) views, and original label (C): Nº 459/Nautilus triangularis (Montf), Andar 20º Cenomaniense, Terreno Cretaceo, Localidade Fouras (Charente inf.re); D-G, Phylloceras (Hypophylloceras) tethys (d'Orbigny, 1840) in ventral (D), lateral (E) and oral (F) views, and original label (G): Nº 360/Ammonites Tethys (d'Orb), Andar 17º Neocomiense, Terreno Cretaceo, Localidade Arredores de [environs of] Sisteron (Basses Alpes); H-K, Ptychophylloceras (Semisulcatoceras) semisulcatum (d'Orbigny, 1840) in ventral (H), lateral (I) and oral (J) views, and original label (K): Nº 359/Ammonites semisulcatus (d'Orb), Andar 17º Neocomiense, Terreno Cretaceo, Localidade Sisteron (Basses Alpes). Scale bar: 2 cm.

opencc-by-4.0Oct 2021View details →

Dataset for Logical-layout analysis on French historical newspapers

Dataset for Logical-layout analysis on French historical newspapers This dataset is intended for training and testing Logical Layout Analysis and recognition system on French historical documents published between 1900 and 1950. The original data is part of the "<a href="https://gallica.bnf.fr/services/engine/search/sru?operation=searchRetrieve&exactSearch=false&version=1.2&query=%28colnum%20adj%20%22Appartient%20%C3%A0%20l%27ensemble%20documentaire%20:%20FrancComt1%22%29">Fond régional: Franche-Comté</a>", which is curated by <a href="https://gallica.bnf.fr/accueil/fr/content/accueil-fr?mode=desktop">Gallica</a>, the digital portal of the Bibliothèque Nationale de France (BnF). This dataset has the following structure: ├── train   ├── 1c     ├── cb32836282t       ├── cb32836282t.xml       ├── bpt6k112325g         ├── bpt6k112325g.xml         ├── truelabels_block.csv         ├── truelabels_line.csv       ├── …     ├── …   ├── 2c   ├── 3c+ └── test   ├── 1c   ├── 2c   └── 3c+ The dataset is divided into a train and a test set. The train and test datasets have been designed to cover as much as possible the various possible layouts that exist in the "Fond régional: Franche-Comté" dataset. To do so, we have divided them into three layout types:   • 1c: documents where the text is displayed in one column, as in books;   • 2c: documents where the text is displayed into two columns;   • 3c+: documents where there are at least 3 columns of text, as in newspapers. Each of the 1c, 2c, and 3c+ folder contains subfolders prefixed by ‘cb’, which contain a collection of documents. For instance, « cb32836282t » is the identifier used in Gallica for « Le Petit écho du 21e Régiment d'infanterie », a French military periodical published during WWI. An XML file with the same name, for instance «cb32836282t.xml », contains metadata about the collection, such as its title, publisher, creator, number of issues, etc. This XML file serves only to describe the collection, and is not to be used for Logical-Layout analysis. The issues in each collection can be found in the subfolders prefixed with « bpt ». For instance, « bpt6k112325g » is the identifier used in Gallica for an issue published in September 1917 of « Le Petit écho du 21e Régiment d'infanterie ». The information about each issue is given in three files, which are described below: 1-bptXXXXXXXXXX.xml The original data, as collected from Gallica. The most important tags of this document and their values are described below:   • oai: metadata about the document, such as its author, title, publisher, original publication date, number of issues, …   • image_url: the url to the document’s scan (in high resolution)   • pagination: a description of each page in the document (size of the page, if it contains a table of content or not, …)   • num_pages: the total number of pages in the document   • ocr: the OCR representation of the document in the XML ALTO format The XML ALTO format provides the text content and physical layout of documents in the following manner. Lines of text are contained in TextLine tags, which in their turn contain String tags for words and SP tags for spaces. TextLine tags are grouped into blocks in TextBlock tags. Sometimes, TextBlock tags are also grouped into ComposedBlock tags. TextBlock and TextLine tags have the following attributes:   • Id : the tag’s identifier   • Height, Width : the text height and width   • Vpos : the vertical position of the text on the page. The higher the value, the lower the word is on the page   • Hpos : the horizontal position of the text on the page. The higher the value, the further on the right the text is on the page   • Language : the language of the text (only for TextBlock tags). Among the attributes listed above, some TextBlock tags also have a Type attribute. This attribute contains logical labels of the lines in the block. In this dataset it appears most often for tables or advertisements. Overall, TextBlock tags that have a Type attribute are rare in this dataset (about 4 % only). Note: The original scan of every document is accessible on the Gallica website, using the URL https://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/<IDENTIFIER>, where <IDENTIFIER> should be replaced by the id of the document (e.g.: bpt6k112325g) or the collection (e.g.: cb32836282t). 2-truelabels_block.csv A CSV file where each line corresponds to a TextBlock tag from the file bptXXXXXXXXXX.xml. This CSV file contains the following columns:   • page: the page on which the TextBlock tag is located   • block_id: the id of the TextBlock tag   • first_last_line: the text content of the first and last TextLine tags inside this TextBlock tag   • classes: the logical label(s) associated with this TextBlock tag The possible values in the column classes are : Text, Title, Header and Other. 3-truelabels_line.csv A CSV file where each line corresponds to a TextLine tag from the file bptXXXXXXXXXX.xml. This CSV file contains the following columns:   • page: the page where the TextLine tag is located   • block_id: the id of the TextBlock tag that contains this TextLine tag   • line_id: the id of this TextLine tag   • text_line: the text content of this TextLine tag   • classes: the logical label(s) associated with this TextLine tag The possible values in the column classes are : Text, Firstline, Title, Header and Other. Firstline indicates the « first line » of a paragraph.

opencc-by-4.0Nov 2021View details →

Supplementary data for: "Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100"

Supplementary datasets for: Geyman, E.C., van Pelt, W.J.J., Maloof, A.C., Faste Aas, H., and Kohler, J., 2022. "Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100." Nature. Abstract: The melting of glaciers and ice caps accounts for about one-third of current sea-level rise, exceeding the mass loss from the more voluminous Greenland or Antarctic Ice Sheets. The Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, which hosts spatial climate gradients that are larger than the expected temporal climate shifts over the next century, is a natural laboratory to constrain the climate sensitivity of glaciers and predict their response to future warming. Here we link historical and modern glacier observations to predict that twenty-first century glacier thinning rates will more than double those from 1936 to 2010. Making use of an archive of historical aerial imagery from 1936 and 1938, we use structure-from-motion photogrammetry to reconstruct the three-dimensional geometry of 1,594 glaciers across Svalbard. We compare these reconstructions to modern ice elevation data to derive the spatial pattern of mass balance over a more than 70-year timespan, enabling us to see through the noise of annual and decadal variability to quantify how variables such as temperature and precipitation control ice loss. We find a robust temperature dependence of melt rates, whereby a 1°C rise in mean summer temperature corresponds to a decrease in area-normalized mass balance of -0.28 m yr-1 of water equivalent. Finally, we design a space-for-time substitution8 to combine our historical glacier observations with climate projections and make first-order predictions of twenty-first century glacier change across Svalbard.   Dataset description:  This dataset contains the digital elevation models (DEMs), elevation change maps, point clouds, orthophotos, and vector outlines of glacier extents based on the Norwegian Polar Institute's collection of 5,507 high-oblique aerial images captured over Svalbard in 1936/1938. The photographs were analyzed through structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry to generate 3D models. We also provide an .xlsx spreadsheet containing glacier-by-glacier statistics of ice loss and climate fields. Note that all of the raster and point cloud files listed below have been georeferenced in Metashape using the ground control points (GCPs) illustrated in Main Text, Fig. 2e, but have not undergone the co-registration and bias-correction following the methods of Nuth & Kaab (2011), which was done on a glacier-by-glacier basis. However, the glacier change budgets in the .xlsx file [#5 below] do reflect the values from the glacier-by-glacier co-registered and bias-corrected DEMs. See below for descriptions of each dataset (each number below corresponds to a different zipped folder). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Svalbard-wide datasets [all georeferenced Svalbard-wide datasets are in the coordinate system UTM 33N]:  1. Svalbard-wide 1936 DEM (20 m and 50 m resolution) [georeferenced .tif file]  2. Svalbard-wide 1936 orthophotomosaic (20 m resolution) [georeferenced .tif file]  3. Svalbard-wide dh (1936-2010) (20 m and 50 m resolution) [georeferenced .tif file]  4. Shapefile of 1936 glacier extents [ESRI .shp file]  5. Glacier-by-glacier statistics [.xlsx file]  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Regional-datasets:  Due to file size limitations, the high-resolution (5 m) datasets are split into the 8 regions illustrated in Main Text, Fig. 2d:  Zone 1 - South Spitsbergen Zone 2 - Barentsoya-Edgeoya Zone 3 - Austfonna Zone 4 - Vestfonna Zone 5 - Northeast Spitsbergen Zone 6 - Central Spitsbergen Zone 7 - Northwest Spitsbergen Zone 8 - North Spitsbergen 6. Regional 1936 DEMs (5 m resolution) [georeferenced .tif files]  7. Regional dh (1936-2010) (5 m resolution) [georeferenced .tif files]  8. Local 1936 orthomosaics (5 m resolution) [georeferenced .tif files]  9. Unprocessed point clouds [.laz files]. These files represent the raw 3D point clouds (x,y,z) generated in Agisoft Metashape for each of the 17 local models described in Extended Data Figure 3. 10. Thumbnail-sized copies of the 5,507 historical aerial images (1936 and 1938) analyzed in this study, along with a .csv file labeling the approximate location of each photograph.

opencc-zeroJan 2022View details →

Experimental repatriation of snowshoe hares along a southern range boundary reveals historical community interactions

Climate change is altering interspecific interactions globally, yet community-level responses are difficult to predict due to both the direct and indirect effects of changing abiotic and biotic conditions. Snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) are particularly vulnerable to decreasing snow cover and resultant camouflage mismatch. This species shares a suite of predators with alternative prey species including porcupines (Erethizon dorsatum) and ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus), and all three species historically exhibited synchronized population dynamics. Recently, the community has become partially disassembled, notably with the loss of snowshoe hares and associated enemy-mediated indirect interactions resulting from declining snow duration. Specifically, we hypothesized that the extirpation of hares in the early 1990s indirectly increased predation pressure on ruffed grouse and porcupines. To test our hypothesis, we experimentally translocated 96 snowshoe hares to a site within a regional ecotone between northern and southern forests where snowshoe hares were recently extirpated and monitored community members before, during and after translocation. Ruffed grouse were only loosely associated with the biotic interactions that linked porcupines and snowshoe hares, likely due to predation occurring from avian predators and strong negative direct effects of declining winter snow depths. In contrast, predation of neonate porcupines was virtually non-existent following repatriation, compared to periods without hares. This abrupt attenuation of predation did not increase overall survival due to increased non-predation mortality from cold, early spring weather. Porcupines directly benefitted from warming winters: decreased snow cover increased adult survival and warmer temperatures around parturition increased maternal condition and reduced non-predation causes of mortality for neonates. Our experimental manipulation suggests that enemy-mediated indirect interactions were likely important features of this community; however, climate change has disrupted these interactions, resulting in extirpation of a central prey species (snowshoe hare) and increased predation of an alternative prey species (porcupine). We show complex effects from climate change with some species directly and negatively affected, while others benefitted from direct effects of warming winters, but suffered negative effects from indirect interactions. Absent snowshoe hares and associated biotic interactions, continued persistence of this community module is unlikely, potentially resulting in altered no-analogue communities along trailing edge distributions.