Find research datasets worth reusing

Data from: Host traits drive viral life histories across phytoplankton viruses

Viruses are integral to ecological and evolutionary processes, but we have a poor understanding of what drives variation in key traits across diverse viruses. For lytic viruses, burst size, latent period, and genome size are primary characteristics controlling host-virus dynamics. Here we synthesize data on these traits for 75 strains of phytoplankton viruses, which play an important role in global biogeochemistry. We find that primary traits of the host (genome size, growth rate) explain 40-50% of variation in burst size and latent period. Specifically, burst size and latent period both exhibit saturating relationships vs. the host:virus genome size ratio, with both traits increasing at low genome size ratios while showing no relationship at high size ratios. In addition, latent period declines as host growth rate increases. We analyze a model of latent period evolution to explore mechanisms that could cause these patterns. The model predicts that burst size may often be set by the host genomic resources available for viral construction, while latent period evolves to permit this maximal burst size, modulated by host metabolic rate. These results suggest that general mechanisms may underlie the evolution of diverse viruses. Future extensions of this work could help explain viral regulation of host populations, viral influence on community structure and diversity, and viral roles in biogeochemical cycles.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Data from: Resource overlap and dilution effects shape host plant use in a myrmecophilous butterfly

1. The effects of consumers on fitness of resource organisms are a complex function of the spatio-temporal distribution of the resources, consumer functional responses and trait preferences, and availability of other resources. 2. The ubiquitous variation in the intensity of species interactions has important consequences for the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of natural populations. Nevertheless, little is known about the processes causing this variation and their operational scales. Here, we examine how variation in the intensity of a consumer-resource interaction is related to resource timing, resource density and abundance of other resources. 3. Using the butterfly consumer Phengaris alcon and its two sequential resources, the host plant Gentiana pneumonanthe and the host ants Myrmica spp., we investigated how butterfly egg-laying depended on focal host plant phenology, density and phenology of neighboring host plants and host ant abundance. 4. Butterflies preferred plants that simultaneously maximized the availability of both larval resources in time and space, i.e., they chose early-flowering plants that were of higher nutritional quality for larvae where host ants were abundant. Both the probability of oviposition and the number of eggs were lower in plant individuals with a high neighbor density than in more isolated plants, and this dilution effect was stronger when neighbors flowered early. 5. Our results show that plant-herbivore interactions simultaneously depend on the spatio-temporal distribution of a focal resource, and on the small-scale spatial variation in the abundance of other herbivore resources. Given that consumers have negative effects on fitness and prefer certain timing of the resource organisms, this implies that processes acting at the levels of individuals, populations and communities simultaneously contribute to variation in consumer-mediated natural selection.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Gypsy moth herbivory induced volatiles and reduced parasite attachment to cranberry hosts

Interactions between species can have cascading effects that shape subsequent interactions. For example, herbivory can induce plant defenses that affect subsequent interactions with herbivores, pathogens, mycorrhizae, and pollinators. Parasitic plants are present in most ecosystems, and play important roles in structuring communities. However, the effects of host herbivory on parasitic plants, and the potential mechanisms underlying such effects, are not well known. We conducted a greenhouse study to ask whether gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) damage, host cultivar, and their interaction affected preference of the stem parasite dodder (Cuscuta spp.) on cranberry hosts (Vaccinium macrocarpum). We then assessed the mechanisms that could underlie such effects by measuring induced changes in phytohormones and secondary compounds. We found that damage by gypsy moths delayed dodder attachment by approximately 0.3 days when dodder stems were added 2 days after damage, and reduced attachment by more than 50% when dodder stems were added 1 week after host plant damage. Gypsy moth damage significantly increased jasmonic acid (JA) levels, total volatile emissions, and the flavonol, quercetin aglycone, suggesting possible mechanisms underlying variation in dodder ability to locate or attach to hosts. Dodder preference also differed between cranberry cultivars, with the highest attachment on the cultivar that had significantly lower levels of total volatile emissions and total phenolic acids, suggesting that volatile composition and phenolics may mediate dodder preference. Our results indicate that herbivory can reduce subsequent attachment by a highly damaging parasitic plant, demonstrating the potential importance of early damage for shaping subsequent species interactions.

Data from: Predators and patterns of within-host growth can mediate both among-host competition and the evolution of transmission potential of parasites

Parasite prevalence shows tremendous spatiotemporal variation. Theory indicates this variation might stem from life history characteristics of parasites and key ecological factors. Here, we illustrate how the interaction of an important predator and the schedule of 'transmission potential' of two parasites can explain parasite abundance. A field survey showed that a non-castrating fungus (Metschnikowia bicuspidata) commonly infected a dominant zooplankton host (Daphnia dentifera), while a castrating bacterial parasite (Pasteuria ramosa) was rare. This result seemed surprising given that the bacterium produces many more infectious propagules (spores) than the fungus upon host death. The fungus's dominance can be explained by the schedule of within host growth of parasites (i.e., how transmission potential changes over the course of infection) and spore release from 'sloppy predators' (Chaoborus spp., who consume Daphnia prey whole, then later regurgitate the carapace and parasite spores). In essence, sloppy predators create a niche that the faster-schedule fungus currently occupies. However, a selection experiment showed the slower-schedule bacterium can evolve into this faster-schedule, predator-mediated niche (but pays a cost in maximal spore yield to do so). Hence, our study shows how parasite life history can interact with predation to strongly influence the ecology, epidemiology, and evolution of infectious disease. 18 pages, 1 table, 5 figures; Appendix

Data from: The relationship between parasite fitness and host condition in an insect - virus system

Research in host-parasite evolutionary ecology has demonstrated that environmental variation plays a large role in mediating the outcome of parasite infection. For example, crowding or low food availability can reduce host condition and make them more vulnerable to parasite infection. This observation that poor-condition hosts often suffer more from parasite infection compared to healthy hosts has led to the assumption that parasite productivity is higher in poor-condition hosts. However, the ubiquity of this negative relationship between host condition and parasite fitness is unknown. Moreover, examining the effect of environmental variation on parasite fitness has been largely overlooked in the host-parasite literature. Here we investigate the relationship between parasite fitness and host condition by using a laboratory experiment with the cabbage looper Trichoplusia ni and its viral pathogen, AcMNPV, and by surveying published host-parasite literature. Our experiments demonstrated that virus productivity was positively correlated with host food availability and the literature survey revealed both positive and negative relationships between host condition and parasite fitness. Together these data demonstrate that contrary to previous assumptions, parasite fitness can be positively or negatively correlated with host fitness. We discuss the significance of these findings for host-parasite population biology.

Data from: Virus infection influences host plant interactions with non-vector herbivores and predators

1. Viruses are widespread in both natural and agricultural plant communities and can significantly alter diverse traits of their host plants that mediate key interactions with other organisms. Yet, the impacts of plant viruses on broader community dynamics remain little studied. 2. Here we explore the effects of Cucumber mosaic virus, a common non-persistently transmitted plant virus, on short and long-term interactions of herbivorous and predatory insects with squash (Cucurbita pepo) plants in a weedy field setting, as well as virus-induced changes in plant phenotypes that mediate these interactions. Cucumber mosaic virus has previously been shown to have numerous effects on host plants that likely influence interactions with arthropods, including reduced plant size, increased volatile emissions, and diminished plant quality and palatability for aphid vectors. 3. Infection reduced the likelihood of many herbivorous insects arresting and feeding on plants, as well as the apparency of plants to herbivores that base in-flight foraging on visual cues. In particular, infection drastically reduced numbers of a specialist squash herbivore (Anasa tristis) on plants in the field—a pattern likely driven by a reduction of phagostimulatory sugar levels in leaf tissue and concurrent increase in amino acid levels, as nymphal development was not obviously impacted by infection status. Relative to effects on herbivores, virus infection had little impact on the ability of predatory insects to locate aphid prey, although an experiment examining plant visitation in the absence of aphids revealed reduced numbers of foraging Syrphidae (Diptera) and Coccinellidae (Coleoptera) on infected plants but increased visitation and oviposition by Chrysopidae (Neuroptera). 4. CMV infection may reduce overall herbivore pressure on infected plants through effects on palatability and apparency, yet predators appear to locate herbivorous prey that do occur on infected plants as efficiently as those on healthy plants. 5. Virus infection can significantly influence plant interactions with the insect community (including non-vector as well as vector insects) with potential implications both for disease spread and for broader community dynamics.

Data from: Gut microbiota signatures predict host and microbiota responses to dietary interventions in obese individuals

Background: Interactions between the diet and intestinal microbiota play a role in health and disease, including obesity and related metabolic complications. There is great interest to use dietary means to manipulate the microbiota to promote health. Currently, the impact of dietary change on the microbiota and the host metabolism is poorly predictable and highly individual. We propose that the responsiveness of the gut microbiota may depend on its composition, and associate with metabolic changes in the host. Methodology: Our study involved three independent cohorts of obese adults (n = 78) from Belgium, Finland, and Britain, participating in different dietary interventions aiming to improve metabolic health. We used a phylogenetic microarray for comprehensive fecal microbiota analysis at baseline and after the intervention. Blood cholesterol, insulin and inflammation markers were analyzed as indicators of host response. The data were divided into four training set – test set pairs; each intervention acted both as a part of a training set and as an independent test set. We used linear models to predict the responsiveness of the microbiota and the host, and logistic regression to predict responder vs. non-responder status, or increase vs. decrease of the health parameters. Principal Findings: Our models, based on the abundance of several, mainly Firmicute species at baseline, predicted the responsiveness of the microbiota (AUC = 0.77–1; predicted vs. observed correlation = 0.67–0.88). Many of the predictive taxa showed a non-linear relationship with the responsiveness. The microbiota response associated with the change in serum cholesterol levels with an AUC of 0.96, highlighting the involvement of the intestinal microbiota in metabolic health. Conclusion: This proof-of-principle study introduces the first potential microbial biomarkers for dietary responsiveness in obese individuals with impaired metabolic health, and reveals the potential of microbiota signatures for personalized nutrition.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Host resistance and pathogen aggressiveness are key determinants of coinfection in the wild

Coinfection, whereby the same host is infected by more than one pathogen strain, may favor faster host exploitation rates as strains compete for the same limited resources. Hence, coinfection is expected to have major consequences for pathogen evolution, virulence and epidemiology. Theory predicts genetic variation in host resistance and pathogen infectivity to play a key role in how coinfections are formed. The limited number of studies available have demonstrated coinfection to be a common phenomenon, but little is known about how coinfection varies in space, and what its determinants are. Our aim is to understand how variation in host resistance and pathogen infectivity and aggressiveness contribute to how coinfections are formed in the interaction between fungal pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis and Plantago lanceolata. Our phenotyping study reveals that more aggressive strains are more likely to form coinfections than less aggressive strains in the natural populations. In the natural populations most of the variation in coinfection is found at the individual plant level, and results from a common garden study confirm the prevalence of coinfection to vary significantly among host genotypes. These results show that genetic variation in both the host and pathogen populations are key determinants of coinfection in the wild.

opencc-zeroDec 2015View details →

Data from: Selective logging in tropical forests decreases the robustness of liana-tree interaction networks to the loss of host tree species

Selective logging is one of the major drivers of tropical forest degradation, causing important shifts in species composition. Whether such changes modify interactions between species and the networks in which they are embedded remain fundamental questions to assess the 'health' and ecosystem functionality of logged forests. We focus on interactions between lianas and their tree hosts within primary and selectively logged forests in the biodiversity hotspot of Malaysian Borneo. We found that lianas were more abundant, had higher species richness and different species compositions in logged than in primary forests. Logged forests showed heavier liana loads disparately affecting slow-growth tree species, which could exacerbate the loss of timber value and carbon storage already associated to logging. Moreover, simulation scenarios of host tree local species loss indicated that logging might decrease the robustness of liana-tree interaction networks if heavily infested trees (i.e. the most connected ones) are more likely to disappear. This effect is partially mitigated in the short term by the colonization of host trees by a greater diversity of liana species within logged forests, yet this might not compensate for the loss of preferred tree hosts in the long term. As a consequence, species interaction networks may show a lagged response to disturbance, which may trigger sudden collapses in species richness and ecosystem function in response to additional disturbances, representing a new type of "extinction debt".

Data from: Rapid antagonistic coevolution in an emerging pathogen and its vertebrate host

Host-pathogen coevolution is assumed to play a key role in eco-evolutionary processes, including epidemiological dynamics and the evolution of sexual reproduction [1-4]. Despite this, direct evidence for host-pathogen coevolution is exceptional [5-7], particularly in vertebrate hosts. Indeed, although vertebrate hosts have been shown to evolve in response to pathogens or vice versa [8-12], there is little evidence for the necessary reciprocal changes in the success of both antagonists over time [13]. Here, we generate a time-shift experiment to demonstrate adaptive, reciprocal changes in North American house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus) and their bacterial pathogen, Mycoplasma gallisepticum [14-16]. Our experimental design is made possible by the existence of disease-exposed and unexposed finch populations, which were known to exhibit equivalent responses to experimental inoculation until the recent spread of genetic resistance in the former [14, 17]. While inoculation with pathogen isolates from epidemic outbreak caused comparable sub-lethal eye-swelling in hosts from exposed (hereafter adapted) and unexposed (hereafter ancestral) populations, inoculation with isolates sampled after the spread of resistance were threefold more likely to cause lethal symptoms in hosts from ancestral populations. Similarly, the probability that pathogens successfully established an infection in the primary host and, before inducing death, transmitted to an uninfected sentinel was highest when recent isolates were inoculated in hosts from ancestral populations and lowest when early isolates were inoculated in hosts from adapted populations. Our results demonstrate antagonistic host-pathogen coevolution, with hosts and pathogens displaying increased resistance and virulence in response to each other over time.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Assembly, annotation, and comparison of Macrophomina phaseolina isolates from strawberry and other hosts

Background: Macrophomina phaseolina is a fungal plant pathogen with a broad host range, but one genotype was shown to exhibit host preference/specificity on strawberry. This pathogen lacked a high-quality genome assembly and annotation, and little was known about genomic differences among isolates from different hosts. Results: We used PacBio sequencing and Hi-C scaffolding to provide nearly complete genome assemblies for M. phaseolina isolates representing the strawberry-specific genotype and another genotype recovered from alfalfa. The strawberry isolate had 59 contigs/scaffolds with an N50 of 4.3 Mb. The isolate from alfalfa had an N50 of 5.0 Mb and 14 nuclear contigs with half including telomeres. Both genomes were annotated with MAKER using transcript evidence generated in this study with over 13,000 protein-coding genes predicted. Unique groups of genes for each isolate were identified when compared to closely related fungal species. Structural comparisons between the isolates reveal large-scale rearrangements including chromosomal inversions and translocations. To include isolates representing a range of pathogen genotypes, an additional 30 isolates were sequenced with Illumina, assembled, and compared to the strawberry genotype assembly. Within the limits of comparing Illumina and PacBio assemblies, no conserved structural rearrangements were identified among the isolates from the strawberry genotype compared to those from other hosts, but some candidate genes were identified that were largely present in isolates of the strawberry genotype and absent in other genotypes. Conclusions: High-quality reference genomes of M. phaseolina have allowed for the identification of structural changes associated with a genotype that has a host preference toward strawberry and will enable future comparative genomics studies. Having more complete assemblies allows for structural rearrangements to be more fully assessed and ensures a greater representation of all the genes. Work with Illumina data from additional isolates suggests that some genes are predominately present in isolates of the strawberry genotype, but additional work is needed to confirm the role of these genes in pathogenesis. Additional work is also needed to complete the scaffolding of smaller contigs identified in the strawberry genotype assembly and to determine if unique genes in the strawberry genotype play a role in pathogenicity.

Data from: Acquisition of obligate mutualist symbionts during the larval stage is not beneficial for a coral host

Theory suggests that the direct transmission of endosymbionts from parents to offspring (vertical transmission) in animal hosts is advantageous and evolutionarily stable, yet many host species instead acquire their symbionts from the environment (horizontal acquisition). An outstanding question in marine biology is why some scleractinian corals do not provision their eggs and larvae with the endosymbiotic dinoflagellates that are necessary for a juvenile's ultimate survival. We tested whether the acquisition of photosynthetic endosymbionts (family Symbiodiniaceae) during the planktonic larval stage was advantageous, as is widely assumed, in the ecologically important and threatened Caribbean reef-building coral Orbicella faveolata. Following acquisition, similar changes occurred in larval energetic lipid use and gene expression regardless of whether their symbionts were photosynthesizing, suggesting the algae did not provide the energetic benefits characteristic of the mutualism in adults. Larvae that acquired photosymbionts isolated from conspecific adults on their natal reef exhibited a reduction in swimming, which may interfere with their ability to find suitable settlement substrate, and also a decrease in survival. Larvae exposed to two cultured algal species did not exhibit differences in survival, but decreased their swimming activity in response to one species. We conclude that acquiring photosymbionts during the larval stage confers no advantages and can in fact be disadvantageous to this coral host. The timing of symbiont acquisition appears to be a critical component of a host's life history strategy and overall reproductive fitness, and this timing itself appears to be under selective pressure.

opencc-zeroOct 2019View details →

Angiosperm to Gymnosperm host-plant switch entails shifts in microbiota of the Welwitschia bug, Probergrothius angolensis (Distant, 1902)

Adaptation of herbivorous insects to new host plants is key to their evolutionary success in diverse environments. Many insects are associated with mutualistic gut bacteria that contribute to the host's nutrition and can thereby facilitate dietary switching in polyphagous insects. However, how gut microbial communities differ between populations of the same species that feed on different host plants remains poorly understood. Most species of Pyrrhocoridae (Hemiptera: Heteroptera) are specialist seed-feeders on plants in the family Malvaceae, however populations of one species, Probergrothius angolensis, has switched to the very distantly related Welwitschia mirabilis plant in the Namib Desert. We first compared development and survival of laboratory populations of Pr. angolensis with two other pyrrhocorids on seeds of Welwitschia and found only Pr. angolensis capable of successfully completing its development. We then collected Pr. angolensis in Namibia from Malvaceae and Welwitschia host plants, respectively, to assess their bacterial and fungal community profiles using high-throughput amplicon sequencing. Comparison with long-term lab reared insects indicated stable associations of Pr. angolensis with core bacteria (Commensalibacter, Enterococcus, Bartonella, and Klebsiella), but not fungi or yeasts. Phylogenetic analyses of core bacteria revealed relationships to other insect-associated bacteria, but also found new taxa indicating potential host-specialized nutritional roles. Importantly, the microbial community profiles of bugs feeding on Welwitschia vs. Malvaceae revealed stark and consistent differences in the relative abundance of core bacterial taxa that correlate with the host-plant switch; a result we were able to recreate through feeding experiments. Thus, a dynamic gut microbiota may provide a means for insect adaptation to new host plants in new environments when food plants are extremely divergent.

opencc-zeroDec 2011View details →

Data from: Behavioral evidence for fruit odor discrimination and sympatric host races of Rhagoletis pomonella flies in the western United States

The recent shift of Rhagoletis pomonella (Diptera: Tephritidae) from its native host downy hawthorn, Crataegus mollis, to introduced domesticated apple, Malus domestica, in the eastern U.S. is a model for sympatric host race formation. However, the fly is also present in the western U.S., where it may have been introduced via infested apples within the last 60 years. In addition to apple, R. pomonella also infests two hawthorns in the West, one the native black hawthorn, C. douglasii, and the other the introduced English ornamental hawthorn, C. monogyna. Here, we test for behavioral evidence of host races in the western U.S. through flight tunnel assays of western R. pomonella flies to host fruit volatile blends. We report that western apple, black hawthorn, and ornamental hawthorn flies showed significantly increased levels of upwind directed flight to their respective natal compared to non-natal fruit volatile blends, consistent with host race status. We discuss the implications of the behavioral results for the origin(s) of western R. pomonella, including the possibility that western apple flies were not introduced, but may represent a recent shift from local hawthorn fly populations.

opencc-zeroDec 2019View details →

Data from: A non-parametric analytic framework for within-host viral phylogenies and a test for HIV-1 founder multiplicity

Phylogenetics is a powerful tool for understanding the diversification dynamics of viral pathogens. Here we present an extension of the spectral density profile of the modified graph Laplacian, which facilitates the characterization of within-host molecular evolution of viruses and the direct comparison of diversification dynamics between hosts. This approach is non-parametric and therefore fast and model-free. We used simulations of within-host evolutionary scenarios to evaluate the efficiency of our approach and to demonstrate the significance of interpreting a viral phylogeny by its spectral density profile in terms of diversification dynamics. The key features that are captured by the profile are positive selection on the viral gene (or genome), temporal changes in substitution rates, mutational fitness, and time between sampling. Using sequences from individuals infected with HIV-1, we showed the utility of this approach for characterizing within-host diversification dynamics, for comparing dynamics between hosts, and for charting disease progression in infected individuals sampled over multiple years. We furthermore propose a heuristic test for assessing founder heterogeneity, which allows us to classify infections with single and multiple HIV-1 founder viruses. This non-parametric approach can be a valuable complement to existing parametric approaches.

opencc-zeroDec 2014View details →

Data from: Host genotype is an important determinant of the cereal phyllosphere mycobiome

The phyllosphere mycobiome in cereals is an important determinant of crop health. However, an understanding of the factors shaping this community is lacking. Fungal diversity in leaves from a range of cultivars of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum), winter and spring barley (Hordeum vulgare) and a smaller number of samples from oat (Avena sativa), rye (Secale cereale) and triticale (Triticum × Secale) was studied using next-generation sequencing. The effects of host genotype, fungicide treatment and location on fungal communities were explored. In total, 635 251 fungal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) reads were obtained from 210 leaf samples. Visual disease assessments and relative read abundance of Zymoseptoria tritici and Ramularia collo-cygni were strongly positively related. Crop genotype at the species level explained 43% of the variance in the total dataset, followed by fungicide treatment (13%) and location (4%). Indicator species, including plant pathogens, responding to factors such as crop species, location and treatment were identified. Host genotype at both the species and cultivar level is important in shaping phyllosphere fungal communities, whereas fungicide treatment and location have minor effects. We found many host-specific fungal pathogens, but also a large diversity of fungi that were relatively insensitive to host genetic background, indicating that host-specific pathogens live in a 'sea' of nonspecific fungi.

opencc-zeroDec 2014View details →

Data from: Melampyrum sylvaticum as a pre-diapause host plant of the scarce fritillary (Euphydryas maturna) in Finland

Background: The scarce fritillary Euphydryas (Hypodryas) maturna (L.) is included in the Habitats Directive's Annexes II and IV(a). Therefore, it is crucially important to be able to define the habitat and breeding places of E. maturna in a correct and unbiased way. New information: Data on a previously unknown pre-diapause main host plant, the small cow-wheat (Melampyrum sylvaticum L.), of Euphydryas maturna in Finland is presented.

opencc-zeroDec 2014View details →

Data from: Colonization history, host distribution, anthropogenic influence and landscape features shape populations of white pine blister rust, an invasive alien tree pathogen

White pine blister rust is caused by the fungal pathogen Cronartium ribicola J.C. Fisch (Basidiomycota, Pucciniales). This invasive alien pathogen was introduced into North America at the beginning of the 20th century on pine seedlings imported from Europe and has caused serious economic and ecological impacts. In this study, we applied a population and landscape genetics approach to understand the patterns of introduction and colonization as well as population structure and migration of C. ribicola. We characterized 1,292 samples of C. ribicola from 66 geographic locations in North America using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and evaluated the effect of landscape features, host distribution, and colonization history on the structure of these pathogen populations. We identified eastern and western genetic populations in North America that are strongly differentiated. Genetic diversity is two to five times higher in eastern populations than in western ones, which can be explained by the repeated accidental introductions of the pathogen into northeastern North America compared with a single documented introduction into western North America. These distinct genetic populations are maintained by a barrier to gene flow that corresponds to a region where host connectivity is interrupted. Furthermore, additional cryptic spatial differentiation was identified in western populations. This differentiation corresponds to landscape features, such as mountain ranges, and also to host connectivity. We also detected genetic differentiation between the pathogen populations in natural stands and plantations, an indication that anthropogenic movement of this pathogen still takes place. These results highlight the importance of monitoring this invasive alien tree pathogen to prevent admixture of eastern and western populations where different pathogen races occur.

Data from: The predictability of genomic changes underlying a recent host shift in Melissa blue butterflies

Despite accumulating evidence that evolution can be predictable, studies quantifying the predictability of evolution remain rare. Here, we measured the predictability of genome-wide evolutionary changes associated with a recent host shift in the Melissa blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa). We asked whether and to what extent genome-wide patterns of evolutionary change in nature could be predicted (1) by comparisons among instances of repeated evolution, and (2) from SNP $\times$ performance associations in a lab experiment. We delineated the genetic loci (SNPs) most strongly associated with host use in two L. melissa lineages that colonized alfalfa. Whereas most SNPs were strongly associated with host use in none or one of these lineages, we detected a ~two-fold excess of SNPs associated with host use in both lineages. Similarly, we found that host-associated SNPs in nature could also be partially predicted from SNP $\times$ performance (survival and weight) associations in a lab rearing experiment. But the extent of overlap, and thus degree of predictability, was somewhat reduced. Although we were able to predict (to a modest extent) the SNPs most strongly associated with host use in nature (in terms of parallelism and from the experiment), we had little to no ability to predict the direction of evolutionary change during the colonization of alfalfa. Our results show that different aspects of evolution associated with recent adaptation can be more or less predictable, and highlight how stochastic and deterministic processes interact to drive patterns of genome-wide evolutionary change