Find research datasets worth reusing

Data from: Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly

1. Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. 2. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. 3. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring data set including the majority of all habitat patches at the species' northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonisation-extinction dynamics. 4. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species' larval development. In contrast, colonisation and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity, and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land-use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is thus probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. 5. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate, and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land-use, appear thus essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change.

Data from: Responses of common and rare aliens and natives to nutrient availability and fluctuations

1. Global environmental change not only includes changes in mean environmental conditions but also in temporal environmental fluctuations. Because it is frequently suggested that common species, and particularly invasive alien species, are phenotypically highly plastic, they might benefit more from these fluctuations than rare native and rare alien species. Experimental tests, however, are still lacking. 2. Here, we tested whether alien plant species take more advantage of increases in resource levels and fluctuations therein than native species, and whether common species do so more than rare species. Therefore, we grew seven common alien, seven rare alien, nine common native and six rare native herbaceous plants, in one treatment with constantly low nutrient availability and five treatments with high nutrient availability that differed in temporal availability of nutrients (constant, increasing, decreasing, single large pulse, multiple smaller pulses). 3. We found that all species produced more biomass and longer roots, and had a lower root mass fraction under high nutrient conditions than under low nutrient conditions, irrespective of their origin and commonness. Among the high nutrient treatments, the temporal pattern of nutrient supply also influenced biomass production, root allocation and root thickness, but the magnitude and/or directions of these responses varied among the groups of species. Particularly, we found that alien plant species, irrespective of whether they are common or rare, produced more biomass, and had a higher root mass fraction when nutrients were supplied as a single pulse in the middle of the growth period instead of supplied at a constant rate, whereas the reverse was true for the native species. 4. Synthesis: Our study suggests that species origin does not drive differences in plant biomass production, root morphology and allocation in response to changes in mean environmental nutrient availability. However in our study, alien plant species, in contrast to native plant species, benefited from a large nutrient pulse. This suggests that increased fluctuations in nutrient availability might promote alien plant invasions.

opencc-zeroDec 2011View details →

Data from: Population genetics of the American eel (Anguilla rostrata): FST = 0 and NAO effects on demographic fluctuations of a panmictic species

We performed population genetic analyses on the American eel (Anguilla rostrata) with three main objectives. First, we conducted the most comprehensive analysis of neutral genetic population structure to date in order to revisit the null hypothesis of panmixia in this species. Second, we used this data to provide the first estimates of contemporary effective population size (Ne) and to document temporal variation in effective number of breeders (Nb) in American eel. Third, we tested for statistical associations between temporal variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the effective number of breeders and two indices of recruit abundance. A total of 2142 eels from 32 sampling locations were genotyped with 18 microsatellite loci. All measures of differentiation were essentially zero, and no evidence for significant spatial or temporal genetic differentiation was found. The panmixia hypothesis should thus be accepted for this species. Nb estimates varied by a factor of 23 among 12 cohorts, from 473 to 10 999. The effective population size Ne was estimated to be around 22 382. This study also showed that genetically based demographic indices, namely Nb and allelic richness (Ar), can be used as surrogates for the abundance of breeders and recruits, which were both shown to be positively influenced by variation during high (positive) NAO phases. Thus, long-term genetic monitoring of American glass eels at several sites along the North American Atlantic coast would represent a powerful and efficient complement to census monitoring to track demographic fluctuations and better understand their causes.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Short-term variations in gene flow related to cyclic density fluctuations in the common vole

In highly fluctuating populations with complex social systems genetic patterns are likely to vary in space and time due to demographic and behavioural processes. Cyclic rodents are extreme examples of demographically instable populations that often exhibit strong social organisation. In such populations, kin structure and spacing behaviour may vary with density fluctuations and impact both the composition and spatial structure of genetic diversity. In this study, we analysed the multiannual genetic structure of a cyclic rodent, Microtus arvalis, using a sample of 875 individuals trapped over three complete cycles (from 1999 to 2007) and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. We tested the predictions that genetic diversity and gene flow intensity vary with density fluctuations. We found evidences for both spatial scale-dependant variations in genetic diversity and higher gene flow during high density. Moreover, investigation of sex-specific relatedness patterns revealed that, although dispersal is biased toward males in this species, distances moved by both sexes were lengthened during high density. Altogether, these results suggest that an increase of migration with density allows to restore the local loss of genetic diversity occurring during low density. We then postulate that this change in migration results from local competition, which enhances female colonisation of empty spaces and male dispersal among colonies.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Data from: Quaternary climatic fluctuations and resulting climatically suitable areas for Eurasian owlets

Aim: The nested pattern in the geographical distribution of three Indian owlets, resulting in a gradient of endemicity, is hypothesized to be an impact of historical climate change. In current time, the Forest Owlet Athene blewitti is endemic to central India, and its range is encompassed within the ranges of the Jungle Owlet Glaucidium radiatum (distributed through South Asia) and Spotted Owlet Athene brama (distributed through Iran, South and Southeast Asia). Another phylogenetically close species, Little Owl Athene noctua, which is largely Palearctic in distribution, is hypothesized to have undergone severe range reduction during the Last Glacial Maximum, showing a post-glacial expansion. The present study tests hypotheses on the possible role of Quaternary climatic fluctuations in shaping geographical ranges of owlets. Methods: We used primary field observations, open access data, and climatic niche modeling to construct suitable climatic niches of four owlets for four periods, the Last Interglacial (~120-140 Ka), Last Glacial Maximum (~22 Ka), Mid-Holocene (~6 Ka) and Current (1960-1990). We performed climatic niche extent, breadth and overlap analyses, and tested if climatically suitable areas for owlets are nested in a relatively stable climate. Results: Climatically suitable areas for all owlets examined underwent cycles of expansion and reduction or a gradual expansion or reduction since the Last Interglacial. The Indian owlets show significant climatic niche overlap in the current period. Climatically suitable areas for Little Owl shifted southwards during the Last Glacial Maximum and expanded northwards in the post-glaciation period. For each owlet, the modeled climatic niches were nested in climatically stable areas. Main Conclusions: The study highlights the impact of Quaternary climate change in shaping the present distribution of owlets. This is relevant to the current scenario of climate change and global warming and can help inform conservation strategies, especially for the extremely range-restricted Forest Owlet.

opencc-zeroDec 2012View details →

Data from: Water level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species

Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analyzed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep, and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison to the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids.

opencc-zeroDec 2018View details →

Data from: Accounting for interspecific competition and age structure in demographic analyses of density dependence improves predictions of fluctuations in population size

Understanding species coexistence has long been a major goal of ecology. Coexistence theory for two competing species posits that intraspecific density dependence should be stronger than interspecific density dependence. Great tits and blue tits are two bird species that compete for food resources and nesting cavities. Based on long-term monitoring of these two competing species at sites across Europe, combining observational and manipulative approaches, we show that the strength of density regulation is similar for both species, and that individuals have contrasting abilities to compete depending on their age. For great tits, density regulation is driven mainly by intraspecific competition. In contrast, for blue tits, interspecific competition contributes as much as intraspecific competition, consistent with asymmetric competition between the two species. In addition, including age-specific effects of intra- and interspecific competition in density-dependence models improves predictions of fluctuations in population size by up to three times.

Data from: Temporally autocorrelated environmental fluctuations inhibit the evolution of stress tolerance

As global environmental conditions continue to change at an unprecedented rate many species will experience increases in natural and anthropogenic stress. Generally speaking, selection is expected to favor adaptations that reduce the negative impact of environmental stress (i.e., stress tolerance). However, natural environmental variables typically fluctuate, exhibiting various degrees of temporal autocorrelation, known as environmental 'colors,' which may complicate evolutionary responses to stress. Here we combine experiments and theory to show that temporal environmental autocorrelation can determine long-term evolutionary responses to stress, without affecting the total amount of stress experienced over time. Experimental evolution of RNA virus lineages in differing environmental autocorrelation treatments agreed closely with predictions from our theoretical models that stress tolerance is favored in less autocorrelated (whiter) environments but disfavored in more autocorrelated ('redder)ned' environments. This is explained by an interaction between environmental color autocorrelation and a phenotypic tradeoff between stress tolerance and reproductive ability. The degree to which environmental color autocorrelation influences evolutionary trajectories depends on the shape of this tradeoff as well as the relative level of tolerance exhibited by novel mutants. These results suggest that long-term evolutionary dynamics depend not only on the overall strength of selection, but also on the way that selection is distributed over time.

opencc-zeroDec 2015View details →

Data from: Movement tactics of a mobile predator in a meta-ecosystem with fluctuating resources: the arctic fox in the High Arctic

Animal movement is a fundamental process shaping ecosystems at multiple levels, from the fate of individuals to global patterns of biodiversity. The spatio-temporal dynamic of food resources is a major driver of animal movement and generates patterns ranging from range residency to migration and nomadism. Arctic tundra predators face a strongly fluctuating environment marked by cyclic microtine populations, high seasonality, and the potential availability of sea ice, which gives access to marine resources in winter. This type of relatively poor and highly variable environment can promote long-distance movements and resource tracking in mobile species. Here, we investigated the winter movements of the arctic fox, a major tundra predator often described as a seasonal migrant or nomad. We used six years of Argos satellite telemetry data collected on 66 adults from Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada) tracked during the sea ice period. We hypothesized that long-distance movements would be influenced by spatio-temporal changes in resource availability and individual characteristics. Despite strong annual and seasonal changes in resource abundance and distribution, we found that a majority of individuals remained resident, especially those located in an area characterized by highly predictable pulse resources (goose nesting colony) and abundant cached food items (eggs). Foxes compensated terrestrial food shortage by commuting to the sea ice rather than using long-distance tracking or moving completely onto the sea ice for winter. Individual characteristics also influenced movement patterns: age positively influenced the propensity to engage in nomadism, suggesting older foxes may be driven out of their territories. Our results show how these mammalian predators can adjust their movement patterns to favor range residency despite strong spatio-temporal fluctuations in food resources. Understanding the movement responses of predators to prey dynamics helps identifying the scales at which they work, which is a critical aspect of the functioning and connectivity among meta-ecosystems.

opencc-zeroDec 2010View details →

Data from: A highly social, land-dwelling fish defends territories in a constantly fluctuating environment

The Pacific leaping blenny (Alticus arnoldorum) is a marine fish that has made a highly successful transition to land. We report an extensive field study on the behavior of this remarkable fish and how it has coped with life on land. The fish occurs in great abundance above the waterline along the rocky coastlines of Micronesia. We found them to be terrestrial in all aspects of their adult daily life, but heavily constrained by large fluctuations in both tide and temperature with almost all activity limited to a brief period at mid-tide. Despite this, the fish were highly social and data were consistent with males defending exclusive territories on land. A variety of metrics – the use of visual displays, the allometry of ornaments, and sexual dimorphism – further imply sexual selection on both sexes was strong. Despite being restricted to an extremely narrow habitable zone in which conditions change constantly, the Pacific leaping blenny is remarkably adapted to life on land and rarely returned to water. The genus is unique among the living fishes in its degree of terrestriality and serves as a useful model of the constraints and adaptations that accompany major ecological transitions.

Data from: Coping with the climate: cuticular hydrocarbon acclimation of ants under constant and fluctuating conditions

Terrestrial arthropods achieve waterproofing by a layer of cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs). At the same time, CHCs also serve as communication signals. To maintain waterproofing under different climate conditions, insects adjust the chemical composition of their CHC layer, but this may affect the communication via CHC. The detailed acclimatory changes of CHCs and how these influence their physical properties are still unknown. Here, we studied acclimation in two closely related ant species with distinct CHC profiles, Myrmica rubra and Myrmica ruginodis, in response to constant or fluctuating temperature and humidity regimes. We measured how acclimation affected CHC composition and viscosity, and the ants' drought survival. In both species, CHC composition showed strong, predictable responses to temperature regimes. Warm-acclimated individuals had higher proportions of linear alkanes, and less methyl-branched or unsaturated CHCs. These changes coincided with higher solid content and viscosity of CHCs in warm-acclimated ants. Temperature fluctuation caused effects similar to constant-cool conditions in M. rubra, but led to entirely different profiles in M. ruginodis, suggesting that fluctuating and constant conditions pose very different challenges. Acclimation to dry conditions led to higher absolute amounts of CHCs, which increased the ants' drought survival, whereas temperature acclimation did not. Hence, the temperature-induced CHC changes cannot be explained by the need for waterproofing alone. While these changes could be non-adaptive, we propose that they serve to maintain a constant CHC viscosity, which may be essential for communication and other functions.

Data from: Hidden survival heterogeneity of three common eider populations in response to climate fluctuations

(1) Understanding how individuals and populations respond to fluctuations in climatic conditions is critical to explain and anticipate changes in ecological systems. Most such studies focus on climate impacts on single populations without considering inter- and intra-population heterogeneity. However, comparing geographically dispersed populations limits the risk of faulty generalizations and helps to improve ecological and demographic models. (2) We aimed to determine whether differences in migration tactics among and within populations would induce inter- or intra-population heterogeneity in survival in relation to winter climate fluctuations. Our study species was the Common eider (Somateria mollissima), a marine duck with a circumpolar distribution, which is strongly affected by climatic conditions during several phases of its annual cycle. (3) Capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data were collected in two arctic (northern Canada and Svalbard) and one subarctic (northern Norway) population over a period of 18, 15 and 29 years, respectively. These three populations have different migration tactics and experience different winter climatic conditions. Using multi-event and mixture modelling, we assessed the association between adult female eider survival and winter conditions as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation index. (4) We found that winter weather conditions affected survival of female eiders from each of these three populations. However, different mechanisms seemed to be involved. Survival of the two migrating arctic populations was impacted directly by changes in the NAO, whereas the subarctic resident population was affected by the NAO with time lags of two to three years. Moreover, we found evidence for intra-population heterogeneity in the survival response to the winter NAO in the Canadian eider population, where individuals migrate to distinct wintering areas. (5) Our results illustrate how individuals and populations of the same species can vary in their responses to climate variation. We suspect that the found variation in survival response of birds to winter conditions is partly explained by differences in migration tactic. Detecting and accounting for inter- and intra-population heterogeneity will improve our predictions concerning the response of wildlife to global changes.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Windows of opportunity for germination of riparian species after restoring water level fluctuations: a field experiment with controlled seed banks

1. Restoration activities aiming at increasing vegetation diversity often try to stimulate both dispersal and germination. In wetlands, dispersal and germination are coupled as water and water level fluctuations (WLF) simultaneously influence seed transport and germination conditions (soil moisture). Water regime shifts have been shown to affect vegetation composition. However, the interactions between WLF, dispersal and subsequent germination as drivers of such changes are still poorly understood, especially within the complexity of a field situation. 2. We tested the effect of soil moisture on ten riparian species in the greenhouse and sowed these species on 135 field locations in nine wetlands with recently restored WLF. We used quantile regressions to test the effects of WLF on the window of opportunity for germination from sown seeds and other seeds naturally dispersed to our plots, as well as on community diversity. 3. Soil moisture significantly affected germination both in the greenhouse and in the field. In the complexity of a field situation, a flooding depth just below the soil level, an intermediate flooding duration and a high flooding frequency provided the best opportunities for maximal germination. This was because these conditions enhanced germination from the seed bank as well as increasing germination from dispersed seeds. Seedling diversity showed identical patterns. 4. Other known (i.e., light conditions) and unknown factors played a role as we found low and variable germination, even under optimal conditions. We found evidence that WLF can affect vegetation zonation as flooded seedling communities contained more species with high moisture affinity. 5. Synthesis and applications. Water level fluctuations provide clear windows of opportunity for germination both from the seed bank and from dispersed seeds. Water regime changes are therefore likely to strongly affect recruitment opportunities and subsequent community assembly in riparian ecosystems, for instance through climate change or management. Water level fluctuations can be used as management tool to stimulate plant recruitment and seedling diversity in riparian wetlands.

opencc-zeroMar 2020View details →

Characterising biogeochemical fluctuations in a world of extremes

Coastal and intertidal habitats are at the forefront of anthropogenic influence and environmental change. The species occupying these habitats are adapted to a world of extremes, which may render them robust to the changing climate or more vulnerable if they are at their physiological limits. We characterised the diurnal, seasonal and interannual patterns of flux in biogeochemistry across an intertidal gradient on a temperate sandstone platform in eastern Australia over six years (2009–2015) and present a synthesis of our current understanding of this habitat in context with global change. We used rock pools as natural mesocosms to determine biogeochemistry dynamics and patterns of eco-stress experienced by resident biota. In situ measurements and discrete water samples were collected night and day during neap low tide events to capture diurnal biogeochemistry cycles. Calculation of pHT using total alkalinity (TA) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) revealed that the mid-intertidal habitat exhibited the greatest flux over the years (pHT 7.52–8.87), and over a single tidal cycle (1.11 pHT units), while the low-intertidal (pHT 7.82–8.30) and subtidal (pHT 7.87–8.30) were less variable. Temperature flux was also greatest in the mid-intertidal (8.0–34.5˚C) and over a single tidal event (14˚C range), as typical of temperate rocky shores. Mean TA and DIC increased at night and decreased during the day, with the most extreme conditions measured in the mid-intertidal owing to prolonged emersion periods. Temporal sampling revealed that net ecosystem calcification (NEC) and production (NEP) were highest during the day and lowest at night, particularly in the mid-intertidal. Characterisation of biogeochemical fluctuations in a world of extremes demonstrates the variable conditions that intertidal biota routinely experience and highlights potential microhabitat-specific vulnerabilities and climate change refugia.

opencc-zeroDec 2012View details →

Data from: Spatial variation buffers temporal fluctuations in early juvenile survival for an endangered Pacific salmon

1. Spatial, phenotypic, and genetic diversity at relatively small scales can buffer species against large-scale processes such as climate change that tend to synchronize populations and increase temporal variability in overall abundance or production. This portfolio effect generally results in improved biological and economic outcomes for managed species. Previous evidence for the portfolio effect in salmonids has arisen from examinations of time series of adult abundance, but we lack evidence of spatial buffering of temporal variability in demographic rates such as survival of juveniles during their first year of life. 2. We therefore use density-dependent population models with multiple random effects to represent synchronous (similar among populations) and asynchronous (different among populations) temporal variability as well as spatial variability in survival. These are fitted to 25 years of survey data for breeding adults and surviving juveniles from 15 demographically distinct populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) within a single metapopulation in the Snake River in Idaho, USA. 3. Model selection identifies the most support for the model that included both synchronous and asynchronous temporal variability, in addition to spatial variability. Asynchronous variability (log-SD = 0.55) is approximately equal in magnitude to synchronous temporal variability (log-SD = 0.67), but much lower than spatial variability (log-SD = 1.11). We also show that the pairwise correlation coefficient, a common measure of population synchrony, is approximated by the estimated ratio of shared and total variance, where both approaches yield a synchrony estimate of 0.59. We therefore find evidence for spatial buffering of temporal variability in early juvenile survival, although between-population variability that persists over time is also large. 4. We conclude that spatial variability decreases interannual changes in overall juvenile production, which suggests that conservation and restoration of spatial diversity will improve population persistence for this metapopulation. However, the exact magnitude of spatial buffering depends upon demographic parameters such as adult survival that may vary among populations, and is proposed as an area of future research using hierarchical life cycle models. We recommend that future sampling of this metapopulation employ a repeated-measure sampling design to improve estimation of early juvenile carrying capacity.

Data from: Offspring fitness and the optimal propagule size in a fluctuating environment

Propagule size is an important maternal effect on offspring fitness and phenotype in birds and other oviparous animals. The performance of propagules often increases with size, but a fluctuating environment may introduce temporal variation in the optimal phenotype. Understanding these mechanisms will provide novel insights into the eco-evolutionary dynamics of life history strategies in parental reproductive investment. We investigated the interaction between propagule size (measured as egg volume) and environmental conditions on offspring mortality and phenotype in a Norwegian house sparrow population. Increased propagule size reduced offspring mortality in early life, with more pronounced effects under heavy precipitation. However, the optimal propagule size for low offspring mortality until recruitment shifted from large to small as temperature increased. Propagule size had no significant effect on fledgling body mass and tarsus length. These results reveal a potential for eco-evolutionary dynamics in propagule size, as populations adapt to fluctuating environmental conditions. The ultimate outcome of this dynamic process will also depend on variation in parental fitness and trade-offs with other life-history traits, particularly clutch size.

Data from: Personalities influence spatial responses to environmental fluctuations in wild fish

1. Although growing evidence supports the idea that animal personality can explain plasticity in response to changes in the social environment, it remains to be tested whether it can explain spatial responses of individuals in the face of natural environmental fluctuations. This is a major challenge in ecology and evolution as spatial dynamics link individual- and population-level processes. 2. In this study we investigated the potential of individual personalities to predict differences in fish behaviour in the wild. Specifically, our goal was to answer if individual differences in plasticity of space use to sea surface temperature could be explained by differences in personality along the reactive-proactive axis. 3. To address this question we first conducted repeated standard laboratory assays (i.e. open-field test, novel object test and mirror-stimulation test) to assess the personality type of 76 wild-caught Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Next, we released the fish back into the sea and monitored their spatial behaviour over large temporal (16 months) and spatial (a whole fjord) scales, using high-resolution acoustic tracking. 4. We demonstrate that 1) cod personality traits are structured into a proactive-reactive syndrome (proactive fish being more bold, exploratory and aggressive), 2) mean depth use of individuals is mainly driven by sea temperature and 3) personality is a significant predictor of home range changes in the wild, where reactive, but not proactive, individuals reduced their home range as sea temperature increased. 5. These findings expand our understanding of the ecological consequences of animal personality and the mechanisms shaping spatial dynamics of animals in nature.

Data from: The fluctuating world of a tundra predator guild: bottom-up constraints overrule top-down species interactions in winter

Global warming is predicted to change ecosystem functioning and structure in Arctic ecosystems by strengthening top-down species interactions, i.e. predation pressure on small herbivores and interference between predators. Yet, previous research is biased towards the summer season. Due to greater abiotic constraints, Arctic ecosystem characteristics might be more pronounced in winter. Here we test the hypothesis that top-down species interactions prevail over bottom-up effects in Scandinavian mountain tundra (Northern Sweden) where effects of climate warming have been observed and top-down interactions are expected to strengthen. But we test this a-priori hypothesis in winter and throughout the 3-4 year rodent cycle, which imposes additional pulsed resource constraints. We used snowtracking data recorded in 12 winters (2004-2015) to analyse the spatial patterns of a tundra predator guild (arctic fox Vulpes lagopus, red fox Vulpes vulpes, wolverine Gulo gulo) and small prey (ptarmigan, Lagopus spp). The a-priori top-down hypothesis was then tested through structural equation modelling, for each phase of the rodent cycle. There was weak support for this hypothesis, with top-down effects only discerned on arctic fox (weakly, by wolverine) and ptarmigan (by arctic fox) at intermediate and high rodent availability respectively. Overall, bottom-up constraints appeared more influential on the winter community structure. Cold specialist predators (arctic fox and wolverine) showed variable landscape associations, while the boreal predator (red fox) appeared strongly dependent on productive habitats and ptarmigan abundance. Thus, we suggest that the unpredictability of food resources determines the winter ecology of the cold specialist predators, while the boreal predator relies on resource rich habitats. The constraints imposed by winters and temporary resource lows should therefore counteract productivity-driven ecosystem change and have a stabilizing effect on community structure. Hence, the interplay between summer and winter conditions should determine the rate of Arctic ecosystem change in the context of global warming.

Data from: Is biasing offspring sex ratio adaptive? a test of Fisher's principle across multiple generations of a wild mammal in a fluctuating environment

Fisher's principle explains that population sex ratio in sexually reproducing organisms is maintained at 1:1 due to negative frequency-dependent selection, such that individuals of the rare sex realize greater reproductive opportunity than individuals of the more common sex until equilibrium is reached. If biasing offspring sex ratio towards the rare sex is adaptive, individuals that do so should have a higher number of grandoffspring. In a wild population of North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) that experiences fluctuations in resource abundance and population density, we show that overall across 26 years, the secondary sex ratio was 1:1; however, stretches of years during which adult sex ratio was biased did not yield offspring sex ratios biased towards the rare sex. Females that had litters biased towards the rare sex did not have more grandoffspring. Critically, adult sex ratio was not temporally autocorrelated across years, thus the population sex ratio experienced by parents was independent of the population sex ratio experienced by their offspring by the time of their primiparity. Expected fitness benefits of biasing offspring sex ratio may be masked or negated by fluctuating environments across years, which limit the predictive value of the current sex ratio.