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59 results for “Regime shifts”
Marine diatoms record Late Holocene regime shifts in the Pikialasorsuaq ecosystem
<p><span>The Pikialasorsuaq (North Water </span><span>polynya) is an area of local and global cultural and ecological significance. However, over the last decades, the region has been subject to rapid warming and, in some recent years, the seasonal ice arch that has historically defined the polynya's northern boundary has failed to form. Both factors are deemed to alter the polynya's ecosystem functioning. To understand how climate-induced changes to the Pikialasorsuaq impact the basis of the marine food web, we explored diatom community-level responses to changing conditions, from a sediment core spanning the last 3800 years. Four metrics were used: total diatom concentrations, taxonomic composition, mean size, and diversity. Generalized additive model statistics highlight significant changes at ca. 2400, 2050, 1550, 1200, and 130 cal years BP, all coeval with known transitions between colder and warmer intervals of the Late Holocene, and regime shifts in the Pikialasorsuaq. Notably, a weaker/contracted polynya during the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly caused the diatom community to reorganize via shifts in species composition, with the presence of larger taxa but lower diversity, and significantly reduced export production. This study underlines the high sensitivity of primary producers to changes in the polynya dynamics and illustrates that the strong pulse of early-spring cryopelagic diatoms that makes the Pikialasorsuaq exceptionally productive may be jeopardized by rapid warming and associated Nares Strait ice arch destabilization. F</span><span>uture alterations to the phenology of primary producers may disproportionately impact higher trophic levels and keystone species in this region, with implications for Indigenous Peoples and global diversity. </span></p>
Data from: A palaeolimnological perspective to understand regime-shift dynamics in two Yangtze-basin lakes
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Hidden Markov models with serial correlation for identifying stock-recruitment regime shifts
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Lake Sanabria ecosystem regime shift (1986-2019)
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Data from: Climate change-driven regime shifts in a planktonic food web
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Data from: Shifting precipitation regimes influence optimal germination strategies and population dynamics in bet-hedging desert annuals
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A regime shift in Southeast Greenland marine ecosystem
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Marine diatoms record Late Holocene regime shifts in the Pikialasorsuaq ecosystem
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Data from: Emergent spatial patterns can indicate upcoming regime shifts in a realistic model of coral community
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Data from: Shifts in functional group community diversity of threatened mesic forests with changing fire regimes
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Stoichiometric mismatch causes a warming-induced regime shift in experimental plankton communities
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Data from: Ecological regime shift preserved in the Anthropocene stratigraphic record
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Regime shift in secondary inorganic aerosol formation and nitrogen deposition in the rural US
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Data from: A regime shift from erosion to carbon accumulation in a temperate northern peatland
<p>Peatlands are globally important ecosystems but many are degraded and some are eroding. However, some degraded peatlands are undergoing apparently spontaneous recovery, with switches from erosion to renewed carbon accumulation—a type of ecological regime shift. We used a palaeoecological approach to investigate and help understand such a switch in a blanket peatland in North Wales, UK. Our data show: (a) a rapid accumulation of new peat after the switch from the eroding state, with between 5.2 and 10.6 kg m<sup>-2</sup> carbon accumulating since the beginning of the recovery which occurred between the late 1800s and early to mid‐1900s CE, with an average carbon accumulation rate in the new peat between 46 and 121 g C m<sup>−2</sup> year<sup>−1</sup>; (b) three main successional pathways in peat‐forming vegetation; and (c) hydrological changes with an increase to moderately high water‐tables after the switch that promoted new carbon accumulation as well as protecting vulnerable old carbon. External factors, including changes in climate and industrial activity, can only partially explain our results. Following previous studies, we suggest that internal ecosystem processes offer a substantial part of the explanation and interpret the switch to renewed carbon accumulation as a bifurcation‐type tipping point involving changes in the physical form of the eroded landscape. <i>Synthesis</i>. Our long‐term ecological data reveal a switch from a degraded peatland with active erosion and loss of carbon to a revegetated, wetter peatland accumulating carbon. The switch can be interpreted as a bifurcation tipping point. We suggest that external factors such as climate and pollution levels are important for setting suitable boundary conditions for peatland recovery, but internal mechanisms can explain the change in peatland state. Our study is the first of its kind to apply tipping‐point theory to the internal mechanisms linked to peat erosion and recovery and may help improve understanding of the trajectories of other peatlands in a changing climate.</p>
Long-term empirical evidence, early warning signals, and multiple drivers of regime shifts in a lake ecosystem
<p>1. Catastrophic regime shifts in various ecosystems are increasing with the intensification of anthropogenic pressures. Understanding and predicting critical transitions are thus a key challenge in ecology. Previous studies have mainly focused on single environmental drivers (e.g., eutrophication) and early warning signals (EWSs) prior to population collapse. However, how multiple environmental stressors interact to shape ecological behaviour and whether EWSs were detectable prior to the recovery process in lake ecosystems are largely unknown.</p> <p>2. We present long-term empirical evidence of the critical transition and hysteresis with the combined pressures of climate warming, eutrophication and trophic cascade effects by fish stocking in a subtropical Chinese lake in the Yangtze floodplain. The catastrophic regime shifts are cross-validated by 64-year multi-trophic level monitoring data and paleo-diatom records.</p> <p>3. We show that EWSs are detectable in both the collapse and recovery trajectories and that including body size information in composite EWSs requires shorter time series data and can improve the predictive ability of regime shifts. Although full recovery has not yet been observed, EWSs prior to recovery provide us with the opportunity to take measures for a clear-water regime.</p> <p>4. Climate warming and top-down cascade effects have a negative influence on water clarity by altering lower trophic level abundance and body size, which in turn have a negative effect on macrophyte abundance. Furthermore, we identify a shift in the dominant driving forces from bottom-up to top-down after regime shifts, decoupling the relationships between nutrients and biological components and thus decreasing the efficiency of nutrient reduction.</p> <p>5. Synthesis This study provides new insights into ecological hysteresis under multiple external stressors and improves our understanding of trait-based EWSs in both the collapse and recovery processes in natural freshwater ecosystems. For management practice, our work suggests that slowing down climate warming and weakening the fish predation pressure on food webs are necessary to increase the effectiveness of nutrient reduction in the restoration of lakes.</p>
Data from: Regime shifts in an Early Triassic subtropical ecosystem
<p>The Early Triassic was one of the most remarkable time intervals in Earth History. To begin with, life on Earth had to face one of the largest subaerial volcanic degassing, the Siberian Traps, followed by a plethora of accompanying environmental hazards with pronounced and repeated climatic changes. These changes not only led to repeated and, for several marine nektonic clades, intense extinction events but also to significant changes in terrestrial ecosystems. The Early Triassic terrestrial ecosystems of the southern subtropical region (Pakistan) are not necessarily marked by abrupt extinction events but by extreme shifts in composition. Modern ecological theories describe such shifts as catastrophic regime shifts. Here, the applicability of modern ecological theories to these past events is tested. Abrupt shifts in ecosystems can occur when protracted changing abiotic drivers (e.g. climate) reach critical points (thresholds or tipping points) sometimes accentuated by stochastic events. Early Triassic terrestrial plant ecosystem changes stand out from the longer term paleobotanical records because changes of similar magnitude have not been observed for many millions of years before and after the Early Triassic. To date, these changes have been attributed to repeated severe environmental perturbations, but here an alternative explanation is tested: the initial environmental perturbations around the Permian–Triassic boundary interval are regarded here as a main cause for a massive loss in terrestrial ecosystem resilience with the effect that comparatively small-scale perturbations in the following ~5 Ma lead to abrupt regime shifts in terrestrial ecosystems.</p>
Data from: Regime shifts shorten food chains for mesopredators with potential sublethal effects
1. Predator populations are in decline globally. Exploitation, as well as habitat degradation and associated changes in prey availability are key drivers of this process of trophic downgrading. In the short term, longevity and dietary adaptability of large-bodied consumers can mask potential sub-lethal effects of a changing prey base, producing a delayed effect that may be difficult to detect. 2. In coral reef ecosystems, regime shifts from coral- to algae-dominated states caused by coral bleaching significantly alter the assemblage of small-bodied reef fish associated with a reef. The effects of this changing prey community on reef-associated mesopredators remains poorly understood. 3. This study found that the total diversity, abundance and biomass of piscivorous mesopredators was lower on regime-shifted reefs than recovering reefs, 16 years after the 1998 mass coral bleaching event. 4. We used stable isotope analyses to test for habitat-driven changes in the trophic niche occupied by a key piscivorous fishery target species on reefs that had regime-shifted or recovered following climatic disturbance. Using morphometric indices, histology, and lipid analyses, we also investigated whether there were sub-lethal costs for fish on regime-shifted reefs. 5. Stable isotopes demonstrated that fish from regime-shifted reefs fed further down the food chain, compared to recovering reefs. Lower densities of hepatocyte vacuoles in fish from regime-shifted reefs, and reduced lipid concentrations in spawning females from these reefs, indicated a reduction in energy stores, constituting a sub-lethal and potential delayed effect on populations. 6. Reduced energy reserves in mesopredators could lead to energy allocation trade-offs, and decreased growth rates, fecundity, and survivorship, resulting in potential population declines in the longer term.
Data from: From success to persistence: Identifying an evolutionary regime shift in the diverse Paleozoic aquatic arthropod group Eurypterida, driven by the Devonian biotic crisis
Mass extinctions have altered the trajectory of evolution a number of times over the Phanerozoic. During these periods of biotic upheaval a different selective regime appears to operate, although it is still unclear whether consistent survivorship rules apply across different extinction events. We compare variations in diversity and disparity across the evolutionary history of a major Paleozoic arthropod group, the Eurypterida. Using these data, we explore the group's transition from a successful, dynamic clade to a stagnant persistent lineage, pinpointing the Devonian as the period during which this evolutionary regime shift occurred. The late Devonian biotic crisis is potentially unique among the 'Big Five' mass extinctions in exhibiting a drop in speciation rates rather than an increase in extinction. Our study reveals eurypterids show depressed speciation rates throughout the Devonian but no abnormal peaks in extinction. Loss of morphospace occupation is random across all Paleozoic extinction events; however, differential origination during the Devonian results in a migration and subsequent stagnation of occupied morphospace. This shift appears linked to an ecological transition from euryhaline taxa to freshwater species with low morphological diversity alongside a decrease in endemism. These results demonstrate the importance of the Devonian biotic crisis in reshaping Paleozoic ecosystems.
Regime shifts in a shallow lake: Consequences for taxonomic and functional diversity, and ecosystem multifunctionality
<ol> <li>Under increasing nutrient loading, shallow lakes may shift from a state of clear water dominated by submerged macrophytes to a turbid state dominated by phytoplankton or a shaded state dominated by floating macrophytes. How such regime shifts mediate the relationship between taxonomic and functional diversity and lake multifunctionality is poorly understood.</li> <li>We employed a detailed database describing a shallow lake over a 12-year period during which the lake has displayed all the three states (clear, turbid, and shaded) to investigate how species richness, functional diversity of fish and zooplankton, ecosystem multifunctionality, and five individual ecosystem functions (nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, standing fish biomass, algae production, and light availability) differ among states. We also evaluated how the relationship between biodiversity (species richness and functional diversity) and multifunctionality is affected by regime shifts.</li> <li>We showed that species richness and the functional diversity of fish and zooplankton were highest during the clear state. The clear state also maintained the highest values of multifunctionality as well as standing fish biomass production, algae production, and light availability, whereas the turbid and shaded states had higher nutrient concentrations. Functional diversity was the best predictor of multifunctionality. The relationship between functional diversity and multifunctionality was strongly positive during the clear state, but such relationship became flatter after the shift to the turbid or shaded state.</li> <li>Our findings illustrate that focusing on functional traits may provide a more mechanistic understanding of how regime shifts affect biodiversity and the consequences for ecosystem functioning. Regime shifts towards a turbid or shaded state negatively affect the taxonomic and functional diversity of fish and zooplankton, which in turn impairs the multifunctionality of shallow lakes.</li> </ol>
Dataset for "Multidecadal regime shifts in North Pacific subtropical mode water formation in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model" by Kim et al., 2022 in Geophysical Research Letters
<p>Kiel Climate Model pre-industrial simulation data used in the Geophysical Research Letters publication titled “Multidecadal regime shifts in North Pacific subtropical mode water formation in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model” by Kim et al., 2022</p>
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