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97 results for “chance”
"Chancing on a spectacle:" co-occurring animal migrations and interspecific interactions
Migrations of diverse wildlife species often converge in space and time, with their journeys shaped by similar forces (i.e., geographic barriers and seasonal resources and conditions); we term this "co-migration." Supporting this, recent studies have elucidated co-migrations and seasonal patterns that govern the location and timing of multiple species' journeys. Beyond their significance as natural wonders, species with overlapping migrations may interact ecologically, with potential effects on population and community dynamics. Direct and indirect ecological interactions including predation and competition between migrant species remain poorly understood, in part because migration is the least-studied phase of animals' annual cycles. To address this gap, we conducted a literature review to examine whether animal migration studies incorporate multiple species and to what extent they investigate interspecific interactions between co-migrants. Following a key word search, we read all migration research papers in 23 relevant peer-reviewed journals during 2008-2017. Thirty percent of animal migration papers reported two or more species with coinciding migrations, suggesting that co-migrations are common, although few studies investigated or discussed these mixed-species migrations further. Synthesizing those that did explore this phenomenon, we present examples and describe five types of ecological interactions between migrating species, including predator-prey, host-parasite, and commensal relationships. Deepening ecological knowledge of interspecific interactions among migratory animal communities will enhance understanding of the drivers of migration and could improve predictions about wildlife responses to global change. Further research focused on multi-species migrations could also inform conservation efforts for migratory animal populations, many of which are declining or shifting, with unexplored consequences for other co-migratory species.
Data from: Successful by chance? the power of mixed models and neutral simulations for the detection of individual fixed heterogeneity in fitness components
Heterogeneity in fitness components consists of fixed heterogeneity due to latent differences fixed throughout life (e.g. genetic variation), and dynamic heterogeneity generated by stochastic variation. Their relative magnitude is crucial for evolutionary processes, as only the former may allow for adaptation. However, the importance of fixed heterogeneity in small populations has recently been questioned. Using neutral simulations (NS), several studies failed to detect fixed heterogeneity, thus challenging previous results from mixed models (MM). To understand the causes of this discrepancy, we estimate the statistical power and false positive rate of both methods, and apply them to empirical data from a wild rodent population. While MM show high false positive rates if confounding factors are not accounted for, they have high statistical power to detect real fixed heterogeneity. In contrast, NS are also subject to high false positive rates, but have always low power. Indeed, MM analyses of the rodent population data show significant fixed heterogeneity in reproductive success, whereas NS analyses do not. We suggest that fixed heterogeneity may be more common than is suggested by NS, and that NS are useful only if more powerful methods are not applicable and if they are complemented by a power analysis.
More than just noise: chance, mating success, and sexual selection
<p>Chance plays a critical but under-appreciated role in determining mating success. In many cases, we tend to think of chance as background noise that can be ignored in studies of mating dynamics. When the influence of chance is consistent across contexts, chance can be thought of as background noise; in other cases, however, the impact of chance on mating success can influence our understanding of how mates are acquired and how sexual selection operates. In particular, when the importance of chance co-varies with biological or ecological factors in a systematic manner— that is when chance becomes consistently more or less important under certain conditions– then chance is important to consider if we want to fully understand the operation of mate acquisition and sexual selection. Here, we present a model that explores how chance co-varies with factors such as sex ratio, adult population size, and mating regime in determining variation in mating success. We find that in some cases, chance co-varies with adult population size and OSR to create variation in mating success. We discuss how chance can influence our more general understanding of the operation of mating dynamics and sexual selection.</p>
FIGURE 5 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 5. Distributional records of Helicops species occurring in the Pantanal and neighboring ecoregions. Symbols denote the type-locality of Helicops boitata (black triangle), as well as localities with vouchers of H. angulatus (white crosses), H. leopardinus (white diamonds), and H. polylepis (white circles). The white circle marked with an asterisk refer to a specimen determined as Helicops polylepis from São Domingos, state of Mato Grosso (IBSP 31712), destroyed by fire on May 15th of 2010.
FIGURE 4 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 4. General views of dorsum, venter and detail of head of the holotype of Helicops boitata (UFMT-R 11940) in life (SVL 437 mm, tail length 205 mm), from the margins of Transpantaneira Road, region of Poconé, state of Mato Grosso, Bra- zil.
FIGURE 1 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 1. Phylogenetic relationships of the tribe Hydropsini (comprising one species of Hydrops Wagler, 1830, one species of Pseudoeryx Fitzinger, 1826, and 10 species of Helicops Wagler, 1828) based on a concatenated dataset of the 12S, 16S, BDNF, C-mos, and NT3 sequence data. Numbers at nodes indicate the values of Bayesian Credibility/Maximum Likelihood bootstrap. The bar represents the number of expected changes per site in the Bayesian Analysis. The name Helicops pictiventris is currently a junior synonym of H. infrataeniatus, but it appears in the tree exactly as the pertinent sequences appear in the GenBank dataset (see Grazziotin et al. 2012).
FIGURE 3 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 3. Dorsal, ventral, and lateral (left/right) views of the head of the holotype of Helicops boitata (UFMT-R 11940), from the margins of Transpantaneira Road, region of Poconé, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Scale bar = 10 mm.
FIGURE 2 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 2. Dorsal and ventral views of the holotype of Helicops boitata (UFMT-R 11940), from the margins of Transpantaneira Road, region of Poconé, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Scale bar = 100 mm.
FIGURE 6 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 6. Sulcate (left) and asulcate (right) faces of the fully everted and maximally expanded hemipenis (right organ) of the holotype of Helicops boitata (UFMT-R 11940), from the margins of Transpantaneira Road, region of Poconé, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Scale bar = 10 mm.
FIGURE 7 in Chance, luck and a fortunate finding: a new species of watersnake of the genus Helicops Wagler, 1828 (Serpentes: Xenodontinae), from the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands
FIGURE 7. The holotype of Helicops boitata (UFMT-R 11940) in the wild, as found in the moment of collection (above), and a general perspective of the habitat in the collection site on May 2016 (below), at Pantanal wetlands in the margins of Transpan- taneira Road, region of Poconé, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil.
FIGURE 1 in Enterographa confusa sp. nov. (Roccellaceae, Arthoniales) discovered by chance in type material of its host lichen Arthonia ochraceella, described more than a century ago
FIGURE 1. Enterographa confusa (A–E, holotype, G). A. E. confusa (black arrows point to ascomata of the lichenicolous fungi) forming a paler, whitish area in the thallus of its host, Arthonia ochraceella (white arrows point to ascomata of the host lichen). B. Ascomata of E. confusa. C. Asci in water. D. asci in KI showing the KI+ blue apical ring. E. Ascospores in water. Scale in A = 500 μm, in B = 100 μm, in C–D = 10 μm, in E = 5 μm. (Photos D. Ertz).
Figure 2 in Parthenogenetic Darevskia lizards mate frequently if they have the chance: a quantitative analysis of copulation marks in a sympatric zone
Figure 2. Variation of snout–vent length (SVL, in mm) according to the number of copulation marks in parthenogenetic females of D. armeniaca from Kuchak (Armenia). Mean values and 0.95 confidence intervals are displayed as well as the raw data with symbols proportional to the number of individuals. Letters between parenthesis on the x-axis indicate the groups according to Duncan posthost tests (p <0.05) after significant ANOVA (see results).
Figure 1 in Parthenogenetic Darevskia lizards mate frequently if they have the chance: a quantitative analysis of copulation marks in a sympatric zone
Figure 1. Representative images of females of Darevskia sp. from Kuchak (Armenia). Left: dorsal view; right: ventral view and scar detail. (a) D. valentini (2n, bisexual); (b) D. armeniaca (2n, parthenogenetic); (c) D. unisexualis (2n, parthenogenetic); (d) D. valentini × D. armeniaca (3n, backcross); (e) D. valentini × D. unisexualis (3n, backcross). Identifications are all supported by genetic data (Freitas et al. in press)
Figure 6 in Cloudy with a chance of speciation: integrative taxonomy reveals extraordinary divergence within a Mesoamerican cloud forest bird
Figure 6. Results of tests for strong niche divergence on multivariate niche axis in relationship to the phylogeny. Boxes show whether each niche axis was more divergent than background divergence (diverged), more similar than background divergence (conserved), or was similar to background divergence and therefore failed to reject the null hypothesis (null). Percentages indicate the amount of variation explained by that axis.
Figure 5 in Cloudy with a chance of speciation: integrative taxonomy reveals extraordinary divergence within a Mesoamerican cloud forest bird
Figure 5. Phylogenies of Aphelocoma unicolor based on mitochondrial DNA and ultraconserved elements (UCEs). For the Bayesian time-calibrated mitochondrial DNA phylogeny generated in BEAST, the mean estimated split dates are provided on the nodes, with the 95% highest probability density shown below in square brackets. For both phylogenies, nodes with perfect support are shown with black dots.
Figure 4 in Cloudy with a chance of speciation: integrative taxonomy reveals extraordinary divergence within a Mesoamerican cloud forest bird
Figure 4. Results of a discriminant function (DF) analysis and normal mixture models on all morphological and plumage traits. A, differences among all five Aphelocoma unicolor subspecies in the first two DF axes. B, differences between only the A. u. unicolor and A. u. griscomi subspecies in the third and fourth DF axes. C, D, results of normal mixture modelling to determine the objective number of phenotypic clusters among individuals west (C) and east (D) of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, with inset showing the assignment of individuals to each cluster with respect to their a priori subspecies assignment.
Figure 3 in Cloudy with a chance of speciation: integrative taxonomy reveals extraordinary divergence within a Mesoamerican cloud forest bird
Figure 3. Scatterplot of hue and colour saturation (chroma) for the five Aphelocoma unicolor subspecies.
Figure 2 in Cloudy with a chance of speciation: integrative taxonomy reveals extraordinary divergence within a Mesoamerican cloud forest bird
Figure 2. Differences among the five Aphelocoma unicolor subspecies for six morphological traits (measured in millimetres).
Figure 1. A, a in Cloudy with a chance of speciation: integrative taxonomy reveals extraordinary divergence within a Mesoamerican cloud forest bird
Figure 1. A, a unicolored jay (Aphelocoma unicolor unicolor) from Reserva de Biósfera Sierra de las Minas, Guatemala (Macauley Library ML85163771, photograph by Daniel Aldana). B, specimens representing A. u. guerrerensis (MLZ 45972), A. u. concolor (NMNH A9096), A. u. oaxacae (MLZ 33558), A. u. unicolor (MLZ 45360) and A. u. griscomi (AMNH 327521). C, distribution map of A. unicolor subspecies drawn from eBird observations.
Replication package for: "They Never Had a Chance: Unequal Opportunities and Fair Redistributions"
<p>Replication package for: Dong, L., Huang, L., and Lien, J.W. (2024) "They Never Had a Chance: Unequal Opportunities and Fair Redistributions", The Economic Journal</p>
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