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159 results for “extinction risk”
Fig. 1 in Distribution range and extinction risk of tree snail subgenus Amphidromus (Pulmonata: Camaenidae) in Thailand
Fig. 1. Tree snails in subgenus Amphidromus. A, Amphidromus (Amphidromus) atricallosus atricallosus; B, A. (A.) atricallosus leucoxanthus; C, A. (A.) givenchyi; D, A. (A.) inversus annamiticus; E, A. (A.) schomburgki dextrochlorus; F, A. (A.) schomburgki schomburgki.
sammsherman27/CoralReefSharkRayIUCN: Data and Code Used in Sherman et al. 2022 - Half a century of rising extinction risk of coral reef sharks and rays
<p>Code and data to reproduce analyses in Sherman et al. 2022 Half a century of rising extinction risk of coral reef sharks and rays.</p>
Ecological marginalization is widespread and increases extinction risk in mammals
<p>Human land-use results in widespread range change across taxa. Anthropogenic pressures can result in species' realized niches expanding, shifting, or contracting. Marginalization occurs when contraction constrains species to the geographic or ecological extremes of their historic niche. Using 4,785 terrestrial mammal species, we show that range contraction results in niche space and habitat diversity loss. Additionally, ecological marginalization is a common consequence of range contraction caused by human land use change. Remnant populations become located in the climatic and topographic extremes of their historic niche that are more likely to be at the periphery of their historic niche at greater distances from historic niche centroids. This ecological marginalization is associated with poor performance and increased extinction risk independent of geographic range loss. Range loss and marginalization may create a "double whammy" in vulnerable groups, such as large-bodied species and species with small geographical range size. Our results reveal a hitherto unrecognized conservation threat that is vital to incorporate into conservation assessment and management.</p>
Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales
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Ecological marginalization is widespread and increases extinction risk in mammals
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Mitigating the extinction risk of globally threatened and endemic mountainous Orthoptera species: Parnassiana parnassica and Oropodisma parnassica
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Environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk to a greater degree in pollination specialists than in generalists
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Code for individual-based simulations in "Environmental fluctuations can promote evolutionary rescue in high-extinction-risk scenarios"
<p>Substantial environmental change can force a population onto a path towards extinction, but under some conditions, adaptation by natural selection can rescue the population and allow it to persist. This process, known as evolutionary rescue, is believed to be less likely to occur with greater magnitudes of random environmental fluctuations because environmental variation decreases expected population size, increases variance in population size, and increases evolutionary lag. However, previous studies of evolutionary rescue in fluctuating environments have only considered scenarios in which evolutionary rescue was likely to occur. We extend these studies to assess how baseline extinction risk (which we manipulated via changes in the initial population size, degree of environmental change, or mutation rate) influences the effects of environmental variation on evolutionary rescue following an abrupt environmental change. Using a combination of analytical models and stochastic simulations, we show that autocorrelated environmental variation hinders evolutionary rescue in low-extinction-risk scenarios but facilitates rescue in high-risk scenarios. In these high-risk cases, the chance of a run of good years counteracts the otherwise negative effects of environmental variation on evolutionary demography. These findings can inform the development of effective conservation practices that consider evolutionary responses to abrupt environmental changes.</p>
Spatiophylogenetic modelling of extinction risk reveals evolutionary distinctiveness and brief flowering period as threats in a hotspot plant genus
Comparative models used to predict species threat status can help to identify diagnostic features of species at risk. Such models often combine variables measured at the species level with spatial variables, causing multiple statistical challenges, including phylogenetic and spatial non-independence. We present a novel Bayesian approach for modelling threat status that simultaneously deals with both forms of non-independence and estimates their relative contribution, and we apply the approach to modelling threat status in the Australian plant genus Hakea. We find that after phylogenetic and spatial effects are accounted for, species with greater evolutionary distinctiveness and a shorter annual flowering period are more likely to be threatened. The model allows us to combine information on evolutionary history, species biology, and spatial data, to calculate latent extinction risk (potential for non-threatened species to become threatened), estimate the most important drivers of risk for individual species, and map spatial patterns in the effects of different predictors on extinction risk. This could be of value for proactive conservation decision-making based on the early identification of species and regions of potential conservation concern.
Data from: Why do bugs perish? range size and local vulnerability traits as surrogates of Odonata extinction risk
<p>Despite claims of an insect decline worldwide, our understanding of extinction risk in insects is incomplete. Using bionomic data of all odonate (603 dragonflies and damselflies) North American species, we assessed: a) regional extinction risk and whether this is related to local extirpation; b) whether these two patterns are similar altitudinally and latitudinally; and, c) areas of conservation concern. We used geographic range size as a predictor of regional extinction risk and body size, thermal limits and habitat association as predictors of local extirpation. We found that: a) greater regional extinction risk is related to narrow thermal limits, lotic habitat use and large body size (this in damselflies but not dragonflies); b) southern species are more climate-tolerant but with limited geographic range size than northern species; and, c) two priority areas for odonate conservation are the cold-temperate to sub-boreal Northeast USA and the Transversal Neo-Volcanic System. Our approach can be used to estimate insect extinction risk as it compensates for the lack of abundance data. </p>
Data from: Prioritizing global land protection for population persistence can double the efficiency of habitat protection for reducing mammal extinction risk
<p>Halting the alarming rate of species extinction, driven primarily by habitat destruction, motivated the international community to adopt (2022) the Global Biodiversity Framework and it’s 23 targets aimed at reversing habitat and species loss. Due to urgency and resource constraints, a key challenge is meeting targets effectively and efficiently. Here we conduct a global prioritization linking 70,492 unique population maps and life history characteristics for 861 threatened terrestrial mammal species. Incorporating individual population data boosted viability for 84% more populations compared to using a more typical approach that uses species distributions alone, nearly doubling the security of long-term species persistence. We map and rank global mammal persistence priority areas and assess how well the current protected areas (PA) system captures these important regions. Our results will provide conservation actors a more direct and quantifiable linkage between conservation action and extinction risk than has previously been possible at a global scale.</p>
Demography and environment modulate the effects of genetic diversity on extinction risk in a butterfly metapopulation
<p>Linking genetic diversity to extinction is a common goal in genomic studies. Recently, a debate has arisen regarding the importance of genetic variation in conservation as some studies have failed to find associations between genome-wide genetic diversity and extinction risk. However, only rarely are genetic diversity and fitness measured together in the wild, and typically variation in demographic history or environment are ignored. It is therefore difficult to infer whether a lack of an association is real or obscured by confounding factors. To address these shortcomings, we analysed genetic data from 7,501 individuals with extinction data from 279 meadows and mortality of 1,742 larval nests in a butterfly metapopulation. We found strong negative associations between genetic diversity and extinction when heterozygosity was included alone in models. However, this association was no longer present when ecological covariates were included. Interactions between heterozygosity and demographic variables revealed that associations are context-dependent or only detectable when confounding factors are controlled. For example, extinction declined with increasing heterozygosity in large but not currently small populations, although negative associations between heterozygosity, extinction, and mortality were detected in populations with a recent history of decline. We conclude that low genetic diversity is an important predictor of extinction, predicting >25% increase in extinction beyond ecological factors in certain contexts. This highlights that inferences about the importance of genetic diversity should not rely on genomic data alone but requires investments in obtaining demographic and environmental data from natural populations to jointly assess their impact on population extinction risk.</p>
DArTseq genetic dataset associated with the article "Hybrids as mirrors of the past: genomic footprints reveal spatio-temporal dynamics and extinction risk of alpine extremophytes in the mountains of Central Asia"
<p>Description: This file stores genetic information on the single nucleotide polymorphism markers (SNPs) in the examined alkali grasses (Poaceae: Puccinellia). The dataset was generetad by Genome-Wide Restriction Fragment Analysis via the DArTseq platform (Diversity Arrays Technology Pty Ltd, Canberra, Australia), which combines complexity reduction methods, fragment size selection, and high-throughput sequencing, optimised for a target organism. The file contains raw data.<br> <br>Usage notes: We used R (version 4.2.2, 2022-10-31; https://www.R-project.org/) and RStudio (version 2022.07.2+576 "Spotted Wakerobin" Release (e7373ef832b49b2a9b88162cfe7eac5f22c40b34, 2022-09-06; http://www.rstudio.com/) on Windows 8.1 to handle this file. We used the dartR R-package (version 2.7.2) with necessary dependencies to import, proccess and analyse this data file as an object of a class genlight (dartR) in the R environment. You may also handle the file as an object of a class genlight using the adegenet and ade4 R-packages. To learn more about installation procedure and how to use of the R-packages visit: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/available_packages_by_name.html.<br> </p>
A global map of species at risk of extinction due to natural hazards
<p>An often-overlooked question of the biodiversity crisis is how natural hazards contribute to species extinction risk. To address this issue, we explored how four natural hazards: earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, overlapped with the distribution ranges of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles that have either narrow distributions or populations with few mature individuals. To assess which species are at risk from these natural hazards, we combined the frequency and magnitude of each natural hazard to estimate a probability of impact. We considered species at risk if they overlapped with regions where any of the four natural hazards historically occurred (n = 3,722). Those species with at least a quarter of their range subjected to a high probability of impact were considered at high risk (n = 2,001) of extinction due to natural hazards. In total, 834 reptiles, 617 amphibians, 302 birds, and 248 mammals were at high risk and they were mainly distributed on islands and in the tropics. Hurricanes (n = 983) and earthquakes (n = 868) affected the most species, while tsunamis (n = 272), and volcanoes (n = 171) affected considerably fewer. The region with the highest number of species at high risk was the Pacific Ring of Fire, especially due to volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis, while hurricane-related high-risk species were concentrated in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern Pacific Ocean. Our study provides important information regarding the species at risk due to natural hazards and can help guide conservation attention and efforts to safeguard their survival.</p>
Data from: Incorporating explicit geospatial data shows more species at risk of extinction than the current Red List
The IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Red List classifies species according to their risk of extinction, informing global to local conservation decisions. Unfortunately, important geospatial data do not explicitly or efficiently enter this process. Rapid growth in the availability of remotely sensed observations provides fine-scale data on elevation and increasingly sophisticated characterizations of land cover and its changes. These data readily show that species are likely not present within many areas within the overall envelopes of their distributions. Additionally, global databases on protected areas inform how extensively ranges are protected. We selected 586 endemic and threatened forest bird species from six of the world's most biodiverse and threatened places (Atlantic Forest of Brazil, Central America, Western Andes of Colombia, Madagascar, Sumatra, and Southeast Asia). The Red List deems 18% of these species to be threatened (15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable). Inevitably, after refining ranges by elevation and forest cover, ranges shrink. Do they do so consistently? For example, refined ranges of critically endangered species might reduce by (say) 50% but so might the ranges of endangered, vulnerable, and nonthreatened species. Critically, this is not the case. We find that 43% of species fall below the range threshold where comparable species are deemed threatened. Some 210 bird species belong in a higher-threat category than the current Red List placement, including 189 species that are currently deemed nonthreatened. Incorporating readily available spatial data substantially increases the numbers of species that should be considered at risk and alters priority areas for conservation.
Data and code from: Phenotypic memory drives population growth and extinction risk in a noisy environment
<p>Random environmental fluctuations pose major threats to wild populations. As patterns of environmental noise are themselves altered by global change, there is growing need to identify general mechanisms underlying their effects on population dynamics. This notably requires understanding and predicting population responses to the color of environmental noise, i.e. its temporal autocorrelation pattern. Here, we show experimentally that environmental autocorrelation has a large influence on population dynamics and extinction rates, which can be predicted accurately provided that a memory of past environment is accounted for. We exposed near to 1000 lines of the microalgae <em>Dunaliella salina</em> to randomly fluctuating salinity, with autocorrelation ranging from negative to highly positive. We found lower population growth, and twice as many extinctions, under lower autocorrelation. These responses closely matched predictions based on a tolerance curve with environmental memory, showing that non-genetic inheritance can be a major driver of population dynamics in randomly fluctuating environments. </p>
Productivity, niche availability, species richness and extinction risk: Untangling relationships using individual-based simulations
It has been widely hypothesised that the productivity of an ecosystem affects the number of species that it can support. Despite decades of study, the nature, extent, and underlying mechanisms of this relationship are unclear. One suggested mechanism is the "more individuals" hypothesis (MIH). This proposes that productivity controls the number of individuals in the ecosystem, and that more individuals can be divided into a greater number of species before their population size is sufficiently small for each to be at substantial risk of extinction. Here, we test this hypothesis using REvoSim: an individual-based eco-evolutionary system that simulates the evolution and speciation of populations over geological time, allowing phenomena occurring over timescales that cannot be easily observed in the real world to be evaluated. The individual-based nature of this system allows us to remove assumptions about the nature of speciation and extinction that previous models have had to make. Many of the predictions of the MIH are supported in our simulations: rare species are more likely to undergo extinction than common species, and species richness scales with productivity. However, we also find support for relationships that contradict the predictions of the strict MIH: species population size scales with productivity, and species extinction risk is better predicted by relative than absolute species size. Furthermore, we show that the scaling of species richness with productivity depends upon the ability of species to partition niche space. Consequently, we suggest that the MIH is applicable only to ecosystems where niches are not already saturated with species, and where partitioning is therefore still possible. Some hypotheses regarding patterns of biodiversity implicitly or explicitly overlook niche theory in favour of neutral explanations, as has historically been the case with the MIH. Our simulations demonstrate that niche theory exerts a control on the applicability of the MIH. --
Sexually-selected male weapon increases the risk of population extinction under environmental change: An experimental evidence
<p><span>Exaggerated sexually-selected traits, occurring more commonly in males, help individuals to increase reproductive success, but are costly to produce and maintain. These costs on the one hand may improve population fitness by intensifying selection against maladapted males, but on the other hand may increase the risk of extinction under environmental challenge. However, the impact of sexually selected traits on extinction risk have not been investigated experimentally. We used replicate populations of a male-dimorphic mite, <em>Rhizoglyphus robini</em>, to test if prevalence of a sexually-selected weapon affected the risk of extinction under gradual temperature increase (20C per generation). In two independent experiments that utilized either inbred lines or lines mass selected for or against the weapon to establish experimental replicate populations differing in the prevalence of the weapon, we found that populations with high weapon prevalence were more likely to go extinct. Extinctions occurred despite partial suppression of the weapon expression at increased temperature and were not explained by increased male mortality. Our results provide the first, to our knowledge, experimental evidence demonstrating dramatic effect of elaborated sexual traits on the risk of extinction under environmental challenge.</span></p>
Productivity, niche availability, species richness and extinction risk: Untangling relationships using individual-based simulations
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Code for individual-based simulations in "Environmental fluctuations can promote evolutionary rescue in high-extinction-risk scenarios"
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