Find research datasets worth reusing

Data from: Quantifying demographic uncertainty: Bayesian methods for integral projection models (IPMs)

Integral projection models (IPMs) are a powerful and popular approach to modeling population dynamics. Generalized linear models form the statistical backbone of an IPM. These models are typically fit using a frequentist approach. We suggest that hierarchical Bayesian statistical approaches offer important advantages over frequentist methods for building and interpreting IPMs, especially given the hierarchical nature of most demographic studies. Using a stochastic IPM for a desert cactus based on a 10-year study as a worked example, we highlight the application of a Bayesian approach for translating uncertainty in the vital rates (e.g., growth, survival, fertility) to uncertainty in population-level quantities derived from them (e.g., population growth rate). The best-fit demographic model, which would have been difficult to fit under a frequentist framework, allowed for spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and correlated responses to temporal variation across vital rates. The corresponding posterior probability distribution for the stochastic population growth rate (λS) indicated that, if current vital rates continue, the study population will decline with nearly 100% probability. Interestingly, less-supported candidate models that did not include spatial variance and vital rate correlations gave similar estimates of λS. This occurred because the best-fitting model did a much better job of fitting vital rates to which the population growth rate was weakly sensitive. The cactus case study highlights several advantages of Bayesian approaches to IPM modeling, including that they: (1) provide a natural fit to demographic data, which are often collected in a hierarchical fashion (e.g., with random variance corresponding to temporal and spatial heterogeneity); (2) seamlessly combine multiple data sets or experiments; (3) readily incorporate covariance between vital rates; and, (4) easily integrate prior information, which may be particularly important for species of conservation concern where data availability may be limited. However, constructing a Bayesian IPM will often require the custom development of a statistical model tailored to the peculiarities of the sampling design and species considered; there may be circumstances under which simpler methods are adequate. Overall, Bayesian approaches provide a statistically sound way to get more information out of hard-won data, the goal of most demographic research endeavors.

opencc-zeroDec 2017View details →

Data from: Differential effect of selection against LINE retrotransposons among vertebrates inferred from whole-genome data and demographic modeling

Variation in LINE composition is one of the major determinants for the substantial size and structural differences among vertebrate genomes. In particular, the larger genomes of mammals are characterized by hundreds of thousands of copies from a single LINE clade, L1, whereas nonmammalian vertebrates possess a much greater diversity of LINEs, yet with orders of magnitude less in copy number. It has been proposed that such variation in copy number among vertebrates is due to differential effect of LINE insertions on host fitness. To investigate LINE selection, we deployed a framework of demographic modeling, coalescent simulations, and probabilistic inference against population-level whole-genome data sets for four model species: one population each of threespine stickleback, green anole, and house mouse, as well as three human populations. Specifically, we inferred a null demographic background utilizing SNP data, which was then exploited to simulate a putative null distribution of summary statistics that was compared with LINE data. Subsequently,we applied the inferred null demographic model with an additional exponential size change parameter, coupled with model selection, to test for neutrality as well as estimate the strength of either negative or positive selection. We found a robust signal for purifying selection in anole and mouse, but a lack of clear evidence for selection in stickleback and human. Overall, we demonstrated LINE insertion dynamics that are not in accordance to a mammalian versus nonmammalian dichotomy, and instead the degree of existing LINE activity together with host-specific demographic history may be the main determinants of LINE abundance.

Data from: Tropical rainforests that persisted: inferences from the Quaternary demographic history of eight tree species in the Guiana shield

How Quaternary climatic and geological disturbances influenced the composition of Neotropical forests is hotly debated. Rainfall and temperature changes during and/or immediately after the last glacial maximum (LGM) are thought to have strongly affected the geographical distribution and local abundance of tree species. The paucity of the fossil records in Neotropical forests prevents a direct reconstruction of such processes. To describe community-level historical trends in forest composition, we turned therefore to inferential methods based on the reconstruction of past demographic changes. In particular, we modelled the history of rainforests in the eastern Guiana Shield over a timescale of several thousand generations, through the application of approximate Bayesian computation and maximum-likelihood methods to diversity data at nuclear and chloroplast loci in eight species or subspecies of rainforest trees. Depending on the species and on the method applied, we detected population contraction, expansion or stability, with a general trend in favour of stability or expansion, with changes presumably having occurred during or after the LGM. These findings suggest that Guiana Shield rainforests have globally persisted, while expanding, through the Quaternary, but that different species have experienced different demographic events, with a trend towards the increase in frequency of light-demanding, disturbance-associated species.

opencc-zeroDec 2010View details →

Data from: Are dormant plants hedging their bets? Demographic consequences of prolonged dormancy in variable environments

During the growing season, some individuals in perennial plant populations may remain alive below ground while others emerge. This phenomenon, known as prolonged dormancy, seems maladaptive, because prolonged dormancy delays growth and reproduction. However, prolonged dormancy may offer the benefit of safety while below ground, leading to the hypothesis that prolonged dormancy is a bet hedging strategy. We evaluated this hypothesis using a 25-year demographic study of Astragalus scaphoides, an iteroparous perennial plant. First, we determined the relationship between prolonged dormancy and fitness using data from individuals in our population. This analysis showed that prolonged dormancy decreased arithmetic mean fitness and reduced variance in fitness. Geometric mean fitness was maximized at intermediate levels of prolonged dormancy. Empirical patterns of lifetime reproductive success confirm this relationship. We also compared fitness of plants in our population to hypothetical plants without prolonged dormancy, which generally revealed benefits of prolonged dormancy, even if plants could forego prolonged dormancy without costs to other vital rates. Therefore, prolonged dormancy may indeed function as a bet hedging strategy, but the benefits of remaining below ground only outweigh the costs for a subset of individuals. Bet hedging has been demonstrated in plants with simple life histories, such as annuals and monocarpic perennials; we present evidence that bet hedging may be important for plants with more complex life histories.

opencc-zeroMay 2016View details →

Data from: Interactive effects of exogenous and endogenous factors on demographic rates of an African rodent

Exogenous and endogenous environmental factors can have simultaneous additive as well as interacting effects on life-history traits. Ignoring such interactions can lead to a biased understanding of variability in demographic rates and consequently population dynamics. These interactions have been the focus of decades-long debates on the mechanisms underlying small mammal population fluctuations. They have often been studied indirectly through seasonal effects, but studies considering them directly and more mechanistically are rare. We investigated the joint effects of exogenous (temperature, food availability) and endogenous (population density) factors on the demographic rates of a group-living diurnal rodent, the African striped mouse Rhabdomys pumilio using nine-year mark–recapture data from a population in the Succulent Karoo, South Africa. In general, higher temperatures and lower food availability were associated with higher survival, whereas high population densities were either beneficial or detrimental to survival depending on interacting food availability. High reproductive rates were related to lower temperatures, higher food availability and lower population density, and interactions among environmental factors mediated the strength of these relationships. Our study highlights the complex ways in which different environmental factors can interact to shape demographic rates and emphasizes the importance of explicitly including interactions among exogenous and endogenous factors into studies of population dynamics.

Data from: Gene flow from an adaptively divergent source causes rescue through genetic and demographic factors in two wild populations of Trinidadian guppies

Genetic rescue, an increase in population growth owing to the infusion of new alleles, can aid the persistence of small populations, but its use as a management tool is limited by a lack of empirical data geared towards predicting effects of gene flow on local adaptation and demography. Experimental translocations provide an ideal opportunity to monitor the demographic consequences of gene flow. In this study we take advantage of two experimental introductions of Trinidadian guppies to test the effects of gene flow on downstream native populations. We individually marked guppies from the native populations to monitor population dynamics for 3 months before and 26 months after gene flow. We genotyped all individuals caught during the first 17 months at microsatellite loci to classify individuals by their genetic ancestry: native, immigrant, F1 hybrid, F2 hybrid, or backcross. Our study documents a combination of demographic and genetic rescue over multiple generations under fully natural conditions. Within both recipient populations, we found substantial and long-term increases in population size that could be attributed to high survival and recruitment caused by immigration and gene flow from the introduction sites. Our results suggest that low levels of gene flow, even from a divergent ecotype, can provide a substantial demographic boost to small populations, which may allow them to withstand environmental stochasticity.

Data from: The impact of selection, gene flow and demographic history on heterogeneous genomic divergence: threespine sticklebacks in divergent environments

Heterogeneous genomic divergence between populations may reflect selection, but should also be seen in conjunction with gene flow and drift, particularly population bottlenecks. Marine and freshwater threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations often exhibit different lateral armor plate morphs. Moreover, strikingly parallel genomic footprints across different marine-freshwater population pairs are interpreted as parallel evolution and gene reuse. Nevertheless, in some geographic regions like the North Sea and Baltic Sea different patterns are observed. Freshwater populations in coastal regions are often dominated by marine morphs, suggesting that gene flow overwhelms selection, and genomic parallelism may also be less pronounced. We used RAD sequencing for analyzing 28,888 SNPs in two marine and seven freshwater populations in Denmark, Europe. Freshwater populations represented a variety of environments: river populations accessible to gene flow from marine sticklebacks and large and small isolated lakes with and without fish predators. Sticklebacks in an accessible river environment showed minimal morphological and genome-wide divergence from marine populations, supporting the hypothesis of gene flow overriding selection. Allele frequency spectra suggested bottlenecks in all freshwater populations, and particularly two small lake populations. However, genomic footprints ascribed to selection could nevertheless be identified. No genomic regions were consistent freshwater-marine outliers, and parallelism was much lower than in other comparable studies. Two genomic regions previously described to be under divergent selection in freshwater and marine populations were outliers between different freshwater populations. We ascribe these patterns to stronger environmental heterogeneity among freshwater populations in our study as compared to most other studies, although the demographic history involving bottlenecks should also be considered in the interpretation of results.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Multilocus coalescent analyses reveal the demographic history and speciation patterns of mouse lemur sister species

Background: Debate continues as to whether allopatric speciation or peripatric speciation through a founder effect is the predominant force driving evolution in vertebrates. The mouse lemurs of Madagascar are a system in which evolution has generated a large number of species over a relatively recent time frame. Here, we examine speciation patterns in a pair of sister species of mouse lemur, Microcebus murinus and M. griseorufus. These two species have ranges that are disparately proportioned in size, with M. murinus showing a much more extensive range that marginally overlaps that of M. griseorufus. Given that these two species are sister taxa, the asymmetric but overlapping geographic ranges are consistent with a model of peripatric speciation. To test this hypothesis, we analyze DNA sequence data from four molecular markers using coalescent methods. If the peripatric speciation model is supported, we predict substantially greater genetic diversity in M. murinus, relative to M. griseorufus. Further, we expect a larger effective population size in M. murinus and in the common ancestor of the two species than in M. griseorufus, with a concomitant decrease in gene tree/species tree incongruence in the latter and weak signs of demographic expansion in M. murinus. Results: Our results reject a model of peripatric divergence. Coalescent effective population size estimates were similar for both extant species and larger than that estimated for their most recent common ancestor. Gene tree results show similar levels of incomplete lineage sorting within species with respect to the species tree, and locus-specific estimates of genetic diversity are concordant for both species. Multilocus demographic analyses suggest range expansions for M. murinus, with this species also experiencing more recent population declines over the past 160 thousand years. Conclusions: Results suggest that speciation occurred in allopatry from a common ancestor narrowly distributed throughout southwest Madagascar, with subsequent range expansion for M. murinus. Population decline in M. murinus is likely related to patterns of climate change in Madagascar throughout the Pleistocene, potentially exacerbated by continual anthropogenic perturbation. Genome-level data are needed to quantify the role of niche specialization and adaptation in shaping the current ranges of these species.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Spatial pattern and scale influence invader demographic response to simulated precipitation change in an annual grassland community

It is important to predict which invasive species will benefit from future changes in climate, and thereby identify those invaders that need particular attention and prioritization of management efforts. Because establishment, persistence, and spread determine invasion success, this prediction requires detailed demographic information. Explicit study of the impact of pattern on demographic response is particularly important for species that are naturally patchy, such as the invasive grass, Aegilops triuncialis. In the northern California Coast Range, where climate change may increase or decrease mean annual rainfall, we conducted a field experiment to understand the interaction of climate change and local-scale patterning on the demography of A. triuncialis. We manipulated precipitation (reduced, ambient, or augmented), seed density, and seeding pattern. Demographic and environmental data were collected for three years following initial seeding. Pattern and scale figure prominently in the demographic response of A. triuncialis to precipitation manipulation. Pattern interacts with precipitation and seeding density in its influence on per-plant seed output. Although per-plot seed production was highest when seeds were not aggregated, per-plant seed output was higher in aggregated patches. Results suggest aggregation of invasive A. triuncialis reduces the detrimental impact of interspecific competition in its invaded community, and that interspecific competition per se has a stronger impact than intraspecific competition

opencc-zeroDec 2010View details →

Data from: Demographic history of an elusive carnivore: using museums to inform management

Elusive carnivores present a challenge to managers because traditional survey methods are not suitable. We applied a genetic approach using museum specimens to examine how historical and recent conditions influenced the demographic history of Puma concolor in western and southern Texas, USA. We used 10 microsatellite loci and indexed population trends by estimating historical and recent genetic diversity, genetic differentiation, and effective population size. Mountain lions in southern Texas exhibited a 10% decline in genetic diversity, whereas diversity remained stable in western Texas. Genetic differentiation between western and southern Texas was minimal historically (FST = 0.04, P < 0.01), but increased 2-2.5 times in our recent sample. An index of genetic drift for southern Texas was 7-8 times that of western Texas, presumably contributing to the current differentiation between western and southern Texas. Furthermore, southern Texas exhibited a > 50% temporal decline in effective population size, whereas western Texas showed no change. Our results illustrate that population declines and genetic drift have occurred in southern Texas, likely because of contemporary habitat loss and predator control. Population monitoring may be needed to ensure the persistence of mountain lions in the southern Texas region. This study highlights the utility of sampling museum collections to examine evolutionary processes and inform wildlife management.

opencc-zeroDec 2017View details →

Data from: Density trends and demographic signals uncover the long-term impact of transmissible cancer in Tasmanian Devils

Monitoring the response of wild mammal populations to threatening processes is fundamental to effective conservation management. This is especially true for infectious diseases, which may have dynamic and therefore unpredictable interactions with their host. We investigate the long-term impact of a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), on the endemic Tasmanian devil. We analyse trends in devil spotlight counts and density across the area impacted by the disease. We investigate the demographic parameters which might be driving these trends, and use spatial capture-recapture models to examine whether DFTD has affected home range size. We found that devils have declined by an average of 77% in areas affected by DFTD, and that there is a congruent trend of ongoing small decline in spotlight counts and density estimates. Despite this, devils have persisted to date within each of nine monitoring sites. One site is showing as yet unexplained small increases in density 8–10 years after the emergence of DFTD. We also found the prevalence of DFTD has not abated despite large declines in density and that diseased sites continue to be dominated by young devils. The long-term impact of the disease has been partially offset by increased fecundity in the form of precocial breeding in 1-year-old females, and more pouch young per female in diseased sites. The lower densities resulting from DFTD did not affect home range size. Synthesis and applications. Transmission of devil facial tumour disease continues despite large declines in devil density over multiple generations. Plasticity in life history traits has ameliorated the impact of devil facial tumour disease, however broad-scale trends in density show ongoing decline. In light of this, devil facial tumour disease and the impact of stochastic events on the reduced densities wrought by the disease, continue to threaten devils. In the absence of methods to manage disease in wild populations, we advocate managing the low population densities resulting from disease rather than disease per se.

opencc-zeroDec 2016View details →

Data from: Demographic modelling reveals a history of divergence with gene flow for a glacially tied stonefly in a changing post-Pleistocene landscape

Aim: Climate warming is causing extensive loss of glaciers in mountainous regions, yet our understanding of how glacial recession influences evolutionary processes and genetic diversity is limited. Linking genetic structure with the influences shaping it can improve understanding of how species respond to environmental change. Here, we used genome-scale data and demographic modelling to resolve the evolutionary history of Lednia tumana, a rare, aquatic insect endemic to alpine streams. We also employed a range of widely used data filtering approaches to quantify how they influenced population structure results. Location: Alpine streams in the Rocky Mountains of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Taxon: Lednia tumana, a stonefly (Order Plecoptera) in the family Nemouridae. Methods: We generated single nucleotide polymorphism data through restriction-site associated DNA sequencing to assess contemporary patterns of genetic structure for 11 L. tumana populations. Using identified clusters, we assessed demographic history through model selection and parameter estimation in a coalescent framework. During population structure analyses, we filtered our data to assess the influence of singletons, missing data and total number of markers on results. Results: Contemporary patterns of population structure indicate that L. tumana exhibits a pattern of isolation-by-distance among populations within three genetic clusters that align with geography. Mean pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) among populations was 0.033. Coalescent-based demographic modelling supported divergence with gene flow among genetic clusters since the end of the Pleistocene (~13-17 kya), likely reflecting the south-to-north recession of ice sheets that accumulated during the Wisconsin glaciation. Main conclusions: We identified a link between glacial retreat, evolutionary history and patterns of genetic diversity for a range-restricted stonefly imperiled by climate change. This finding included a history of divergence with gene flow, an unexpected conclusion for a mountaintop species. Beyond L. tumana, this study demonstrates the complexity of assessing genetic structure for weakly differentiated species, shows the degree to which rare alleles and missing data may influence results, and highlights the usefulness of genome-scale data to extend population genetic inquiry in non-model species.

opencc-zeroDec 2013View details →

Data from: Distinguishing the effects of selection from demographic history in the genetic variation of two sister passerines based on mitochondrial-nuclear comparison

Determining the mechanisms responsible for the distribution of genetic diversity in natural populations has occupied a central role in molecular evolution. Our study was motivated by the unprecedented observation that a widespread Eurasian flycatcher, Ficedula albicilla, exhibited no variation at the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) ND2 gene in 75 individuals sampled over a 5000-km distance. In contrast, its sister species, F. parva, had low but considerably higher levels of mtDNA variation. We assessed whether natural selection or demographic factors could explain the absence of mtDNA variation in F. albicilla. Eighteen nuclear genes were sequenced to estimate the two species' phylogeographic histories, and for comparison to the mtDNA data. Multilocus coalescence analyses suggested that F. albicilla experienced a population expansion perhaps following a population bottleneck. Simulations based on this demographic history, however, did not replicate the extremely low level of mtDNA variation. Historical range changes based on ecological niche models also failed to explain the observed mtDNA patterns. Neutrality tests (DHEW and ML-HKA) suggested a non-neutral pattern in the mtDNA of F. albicilla. We found a transmembrane-skewed distribution of nonsynonymous substitutions between the two species, three of which caused functional change; the results implied that positive selection could have targeted mtDNA. Several lines of evidence support selection rather than demographic history as the main force influencing the patterns of mtDNA variation. Despite the influence of natural selection, many of the phylogeographic inferences derived from mtDNA were robust, including species limits and a high level of gene flow among populations within species.

Data from: Linking genetic kinship and demographic analyses to characterize dispersal: methods and application to Blanding's turtle

Characterizing how frequently, and at what life stages and spatial scales, dispersal occurs can be difficult, especially for species with cryptic juvenile periods and long reproductive life spans. Using a combination of mark–recapture information, microsatellite genetic data, and demographic simulations, we characterize natal and breeding dispersal patterns in the long-lived, slow-maturing, and endangered Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii), focusing on nesting females. We captured and genotyped 310 individual Blanding's turtles (including 220 nesting females) in a central Wisconsin population from 2010 to 2013, with additional information on movements among 3 focal nesting areas within this population available from carapace-marking conducted from 2001 to 2009. Mark–recapture analyses indicated that dispersal among the 3 focal nesting areas was infrequent (<0.03 annual probability). Dyads of females with inferred first-order relationships were more likely to be found within the same nesting area than split between areas, and the proportion of related dyads declined with increasing distance among nesting areas. The observed distribution of related dyads for nesting females was consistent with a probability of natal dispersal at first breeding between nearby nesting areas of approximately 0.1 based on demographic simulations. Our simulation-based estimates of infrequent female dispersal were corroborated by significant spatial genetic autocorrelation among nesting females at scales of <500 m. Nevertheless, a lack of spatial genetic autocorrelation among non-nesting turtles (males and females) suggested extensive local connectivity, possibly mediated by male movements or long-distance movements made by females between terrestrial nesting areas and aquatic habitats. We show here that coupling genetic and demographic information with simulations of individual-based population models can be an effective approach for untangling the contributions of natal and breeding dispersal to spatial ecology.

Data from: Demographic stimulation of the obligate understorey herb, Panax quinquefolius L., in response to natural forest canopy disturbances

1.Natural and anthropogenic forest canopy disturbances significantly alter forest dynamics and lead to multi-dimensional shifts in the forest understorey. An understorey plant's ability to exploit alterations to the light environment caused by canopy disturbance leads to changes in population dynamics. The purpose of this work was to determine if population growth of a species adapted to low light increases in response to additional light inputs caused by canopy disturbance, or alternatively, declines due to long-term selection under low light conditions. 2.To address this question, we quantified the demographic response of an understorey herb to three contrasting forest canopy disturbances (ice storms, tent caterpillar defoliation and lightning strikes) that encompass a broad range of disturbance severity. We used a model shade-adapted understorey species, Panax quinquefolius, to parameterize stage-based matrix models. Asymptotic growth rates, stochastic growth rates and simulations of transient dynamics were used to quantify the population-level response to canopy disturbance. Life table response experiments were used to partition the underlying controls over differences in population growth rates. 3.Population growth rates at all three disturbed sites increased in the transition period immediately after the canopy disturbance relative to the transition period prior to disturbance. Stochastic population models revealed that growth rates increased significantly in simulations that included disturbance matrices relative to those simulations that excluded disturbance. Additionally, transient models indicated that population size (n) was larger for all three populations when the respective disturbance matrix was included in the model. 4.Synthesis Obligate shade species are most likely to be pre-adapted to take advantage of canopy gaps and light influx to a degree, and this pre-adaptation may be due to long-term selection under dynamic old growth forest canopies. We propose a model whereby population performance is represented by a parabolic curve where performance is maximized under intermediate levels of canopy disturbance. This study provides new evidence to aid our understanding of the population-level response of understorey herbs to disturbances whose frequency and intensity are predicted to increase as global climates continue to shift.

Data from: Consequences of a demographic bottleneck on genetic structure and variation in the Scandinavian brown bear

The Scandinavian brown bear went through a major decline in population size approximately 100 years ago, due to intense hunting. After being protected, the population subsequently recovered and today numbers in the thousands. The genetic diversity in the contemporary population has been investigated in considerable detail, and it has been shown that the population consists of several subpopulations that display relatively high levels of genetic variation. However, previous studies have been unable to resolve the degree to which the demographic bottleneck impacted the contemporary genetic structure and diversity. In this study, we used mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA markers from pre- and postbottleneck Scandinavian brown bear samples to investigate the effect of the bottleneck. Simulation and multivariate analysis suggested the same genetic structure for the historical and modern samples, which are clustered into three subpopulations in southern, central and northern Scandinavia. However, the southern subpopulation appears to have gone through a marked change in allele frequencies. When comparing the mitochondrial DNA diversity in the whole population, we found a major decline in haplotype numbers across the bottleneck. However, the loss of autosomal genetic diversity was less pronounced, although a significant decline in allelic richness was observed in the southern subpopulation. Approximate Bayesian computations provided clear support for a decline in effective population size during the bottleneck, in both the southern and northern subpopulations. These results have implications for the future management of the Scandinavian brown bear because they indicate a recent loss in genetic diversity and also that the current genetic structure may have been caused by historical ecological processes rather than recent anthropogenic persecution.

Data from: Demographic and spatiotemporal patterns of avian influenza infection at the continental scale, and in relation to annual life cycle of a migratory host

Since the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in the eastern hemisphere, numerous surveillance programs and studies have been undertaken to detect the occurrence, distribution, or spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in wild bird populations worldwide. To identify demographic determinants and spatiotemporal patterns of AIV infection in long distance migratory waterfowl in North America, we fitted generalized linear models with binominal distribution to analyze results from 13,574 blue-winged teal (Anas discors, BWTE) sampled in 2007 to 2010 year round during AIV surveillance programs in Canada and the United States. Our analyses revealed that during late summer staging (July-August) and fall migration (September-October), hatch year (HY) birds were more likely to be infected than after hatch year (AHY) birds, however there was no difference between age categories for the remainder of the year (winter, spring migration, and breeding period), likely due to maturing immune systems and newly acquired immunity of HY birds. Probability of infection increased non-linearly with latitude, and was highest in late summer prior to fall migration when densities of birds and the proportion of susceptible HY birds in the population are highest. Birds in the Central and Mississippi flyways were more likely to be infected compared to those in the Atlantic flyway. Seasonal cycles and spatial variation of AIV infection were largely driven by the dynamics of AIV infection in HY birds, which had more prominent cycles and spatial variation in infection compared to AHY birds. Our results demonstrate demographic as well as seasonal, latitudinal and flyway trends across Canada and the US, while illustrating the importance of migratory host life cycle and age in driving cyclical patterns of prevalence.

opencc-zeroDec 2017View details →

Data from: Lions and leopards coexist without spatial, temporal or demographic effects of interspecific competition

1. Although interspecific competition plays a principle role in shaping species behaviour and demography, little is known about the population-level outcomes of competition between large carnivores, and the mechanisms that facilitate coexistence. 2. We conducted a multi-landscape analysis of two widely distributed, threatened large carnivore competitors to offer insight into coexistence strategies and assist with species-level conservation. 3. We evaluated how interference competition affects occupancy, temporal activity and population density of a dominant competitor, the lion (Panthera leo), and its subordinate competitor, the leopard (Panthera pardus). We collected camera-trap data over three years in ten study sites covering 5,070 km2. We used multispecies occupancy modelling to assess spatial responses in varying environmental and prey conditions and competitor presence, and examined temporal overlap and the relationship between lion and leopard densities across sites and years. 4. Results showed that both lion and leopard occupancy was independent of – rather than conditional on – their competitor's presence across all environmental covariates. Marginal occupancy probability for leopard was higher in areas with more bushy, 'hideable' habitat, human (tourist) activity and topographic ruggedness, whereas lion occupancy decreased with increasing hideable habitat and increased with higher abundance of very large prey. Temporal overlap was high between carnivores and there was no detectable relationship between species densities. 4. Lions pose a threat to the survival of individual leopards, but they exerted no tractable influence on leopard spatial or temporal dynamics. Furthermore, lions did not appear to suppress leopard populations, suggesting that intraguild competitors can coexist in the same areas without population decline. Aligned conservation strategies that promote functioning ecosystems, rather than target individual species, are therefore advised to achieve cost- and space-effective conservation.

Data from: Asynchronous changes in abundance over large scales are explained by demographic variation rather than environmental stochasticity in an invasive flagellate

Environmental stochasticity is important in explaining the persistence and establishment of invasive species, but the simultaneous effects of environmental and demographic factors are difficult to separate. Understanding how demography and environmental factors affect invasive species abundance over large temporal and spatial scales is essential to anticipate populations at risk of becoming established and setting appropriate management measures. Using a hierarchical mixed modeling approach we analyzed the spatial and interannual dynamics of the invasive raphidophyte Gonyostomum semen, a noxious flagellate which is spreading in northern Europe, in response to demographic and environmental variation. We used data from 76 lakes distributed across two biogeographical regions in Sweden (Central Plains in the south and Fennoscandian region in the north) and sampled during 14 years. We found a strong asynchrony in the density dynamics of G. semen populations between the two regions. G. semen showed positive trends (i.e. increasing frequency of high density peaks) in most southern lakes, forming established populations with recurrent blooms in successive years in some of them. In contrast, G. semen populations were smaller and more stochastic in the north. G. semen previous year's abundance, a proxy for cyst production and recruitment, had a strong control on the dynamics, likely contributing to the stability of high density populations in southern lakes. Conversely, the effects of climate and habitat were weaker and their influence varied across regions. Temperature was the limiting factor in the north whereas local habitat was more important in the south. Synthesis: A full understanding of the mechanisms driving abundance changes across large scales can only be gained if endogenous and environmental factors are analyzed together. For phytoplankton species, and specially, noxious microalgae, this implies that proxies for cyst production and recruitment, which are the inoculum for next year population, should be included in e.g. distribution, bloom formation and climate models, as these may modify establishment and population response to environmental variation. Asynchronous changes in abundance across regions also indicate that management plans should be developed for small regions, as inference at a large scale may obscure the mechanisms driving local population changes.

Data from: Demographic modelling with whole-genome data reveals parallel origin of similar Pundamilia cichlid species after hybridization

Modes and mechanisms of speciation are best studied in young species pairs. In older taxa, it is increasingly difficult to distinguish what happened during speciation from what happened after speciation. Lake Victoria cichlids in the genus Pundamilia encompass a complex of young species and polymorphic populations. One Pundamilia species pair, P. pundamilia and P. nyererei, is particularly well suited to study speciation because sympatric population pairs occur with different levels of phenotypic differentiation and reproductive isolation at different rocky islands within the lake. Genetic distances between allopatric island populations of the same nominal species often exceed those between the sympatric species. It thus remained unresolved whether speciation into P. nyererei and P. pundamilia occurred once, followed by geographical range expansion and interspecific gene flow in local sympatry, or if the species pair arose repeatedly by parallel speciation. Here, we use genomic data and demographic modelling to test these alternative evolutionary scenarios. We demonstrate that gene flow plays a strong role in shaping the observed patterns of genetic similarity, including both gene flow between sympatric species and gene flow between allopatric populations, as well as recent and early gene flow. The best supported model for the origin of P. pundamilia and P. nyererei population pairs at two different islands is one where speciation happened twice, whereby the second speciation event follows shortly after introgression from an allopatric P. nyererei population that arose earlier. Our findings support the hypothesis that very similar species may arise repeatedly, potentially facilitated by introgressed genetic variation.