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116 results for “climate risk”
Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards
<p>Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900–1994) of each coral species within their ranges and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions is predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.</p>
Data for article "Waterborne virus transport and risk assessment in Lake Geneva under climate change"
<p>Radiation_2019_Aigle contains the daily global radiation measurement data at Station Aigle for the year of 2019.</p> <p>Radiation_yearly contains the historical yearly mean global radiation measurement data at Station Aigle.</p> <p>Virus concentration_measurement contains sewage virus measurement data.</p> <p>Code_and_simulation_files contain files used for hydrodynamic and water quality simulations as well as risk assessment.</p> <p> </p>
Data from "Unraveling Cross-Border Climate Risks through Climate Storylines:An example from Europe's Cocoa Industry"
<p>The following files were used in the analysis in the article "Unraveling Cross-Border Climate Risks through Climate Storylines: An example from Europe's Cocoa Industry." The traditional assessment of climate change's impact on agriculture, confined by geographical borders, is insufficient due to global trade, allowing climate risks to affect multiple nations. This study uses cacao as an example to highlight cross-border climate risks, showing their implications for the EU's chocolate industry. Concentrating on cacao supply from Ivory Coast and Ghana, the study models various warming scenarios, revealing reduced cacao yields in both countries. Under RCP2.6, Ivory Coast could lose around 7% of cacao production by 2050, rising to 23% at RCP8.5. Ghana might experience losses of 39% by 2050, with a potential extreme loss of 86%. A no-deforestation import policy further affects production, reducing about 24% in the Ivory Coast and 16% in Ghana. These losses possibly cause EU supplies to decrease by 8% by 2050 in the long term and up to 20% in an extreme year. Predicted cacao price hikes of 30% by 2050 will cost the EU 2.5 billion euros annually by 2050. Extreme drought might elevate prices by 115% (RCP8.5), resulting in an additional annual expense of 10 billion euros for the EU. Findings indicate importance of addressing cross-border dimension in climate risk studies. These risks intensify with higher warming degrees, compounded by concentrated crop production, making countries dependent on these commodities highly susceptible to simultaneous, multi-location crop failures. Presently, EU trade agreements lack provisions for such scenarios. Given the increased likelihood of such shocks under a warming climate, more significant investment into disaster management strategies and policies is advisable.</p>
A global hybrid tropical cyclone risk model based upon statistical and coupled climate models - Supporting figures and data
<p><strong>Introduction</strong></p><p>This contribution consists of 1) supporting figures and 2) supporting data for the submitted manuscript "A Global Hybrid Tropical Cyclone Risk Model based upon Statistical and Coupled Climate Models." Supporting figures are presented in two interactive HTML documents. The supporting datasets contain tropical cyclone event sets, catalogs, and an example analysis that plots summaries of the simulated catalogs and compares them to historical observations. All files are provided for the 400 ensemble members (event sets) that represent climate model years 1981-2020 (40 years) from the first 10 CESM-LE members.</p><p><strong>Contents</strong></p><p>./Catalog/sim_650</p><p>Tropical cyclone annual catalog for each basin based on the CESM-LE distribution of ENSO phases. 650 simulations are provided for each of 400 event sets. Each file contains the catalog for a single basin and is written as catalog_tc_(BASIN)_sim650_my400_nbinom_condmeanensojma.csv., where BASIN can be NA, EP, WP, NI, SI, SP.</p><p>./Documentation</p><p>TCMODEL_UQAM_EXAMPLE.html: Analysis script showing example of use of the tropical cyclone catalogs and comparison to historical observations.</p><p>UQAM_TC_Model_Data_Supplement_Dictionary.xlsx: Data dictionary of all data supplement file contents.</p><p>./IBTRACS</p><p>Summary of IBTrACS data required in the analysis script.</p><p>./TrajectoryBanks</p><p>Contains subdirectories for each basin (EP, NAT, NI, SI, SP, WP)</p><p>Each subdirectory contains several files summarizing the event sets, or banks, of tropical cyclone trajectories.</p><p><strong>Versions</strong></p><p>Version 1.0.1: Updated TCMODEL_UQAM_SUPPORTING_FIGURES.zip for revisions to submitted manuscript.</p><p>Version 1.0.0: Original version.</p><p> </p>
Projected climate risk of aquatic food system benefits
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Climate change incidence, risk perception, and food security nexus
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A climate risk index for marine life
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Invasion risk of the currently cultivated alien flora in Southern Africa is predicted to decline under climate change
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Data for: Spatial-temporal analysis of natural hazards and disasters in the Greater Horn of Africa between 2010 and 2024 to inform disaster risk reduction, and surveillance and control strategies for climate and environmentally sensitive diseases
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Agriculture-urban interfaces, social vulnerability, and climate change shape West Nile virus risk across the United States
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The importance of quantifying selection climates: Predictable and unpredictable variation in predation risk and the implications for prey responses
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Weak local adaptation to climate in seedlings of a deciduous conifer suggests limited benefits and risks of assisted gene flow
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Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards
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Range restriction, climate variability, and human-related risks imperil lizards worldwide
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Data from: Are Mediterranean marine threatened species at high risk by climate change?
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Asymmetry of thermal sensitivity and the thermal risk of climate change
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Global risk dynamics of Borrelia miyamotoi in the context of climate change
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Data from: Climate change increases predation risk for a keystone species of the boreal forest
<p>Canada lynx (<i>Lynx canadensis</i>) and snowshoe hares (<i>Lepus americanus</i>) form a keystone predator-prey cycle that has large impacts on the North-American boreal forest vertebrate community. Snowshoe hares and lynx are both well-suited for snowy winters, but climate change associated shifts in snow conditions could lower hare survival and alter cyclic dynamics. Using detailed monitoring of snowshoe hare cause-specific mortality, behaviour, and prevailing weather, we demonstrate that hare mortality risk is strongly influenced by variation in snow conditions. Although predation risk from lynx was largely unaffected by snow conditions, coyote (<i>Canis latrans</i>) predation increased in shallow snow. Maximum snow depth in our study area has decreased 33% over the last two decades and predictions based on prolonged shallow snow indicate future hare survival could resemble that seen during population declines. Our results indicate that climate change could disrupt cyclic dynamics in the boreal forest.</p>
Archive data for: Loss of predation risk from apex predators can exacerbate marine tropicalization caused by extreme climatic events
<p>1. Extreme climatic events (ECEs) and predator removal represent some of the most widespread stressors to ecosystems. Though species interactions can alter ecological effects of climate change (and vice versa), it is less understood whether, when, and how predator removal can interact with ECEs to exacerbate their effects. Understanding the circumstances under which such interactions might occur is critical because predator loss is widespread and ECEs can generate rapid phase shifts in ecosystems which can ultimately lead to tropicalization.</p> <p>2. Our goal was to determine whether loss of predation risk may be an important mechanism governing ecosystem responses to extreme events, and whether the effects of such events, such as tropicalization, can occur even when species range shifts do not. Specifically, our goal was to experimentally simulate loss of an apex predator, the tiger shark (<i>Galeocerdo cuvier</i>) effects on a recently damaged seagrass ecosystem of Shark Bay, Australia by applying documented changes to risk sensitive grazing of dugong (<i>Dugong dugon</i>) herbivores. </p> <p>3. Using a 16-month field experiment established in recently disturbed seagrass meadows, we used previous estimates of risk-sensitive dugong foraging behavior to simulate altered risk-sensitive foraging densities and strategies of dugongs consistent with apex predator loss, and tracked seagrass responses to the simulated grazing.</p> <p>4. Grazing treatments targeted and removed tropical seagrasses, which declined. However, like in other mixed-bed habitats where dugongs forage, treatments also incidentally accelerated temperate seagrass losses, revealing that herbivore behavioral changes in response to predator loss can exacerbate ECE effects and promote tropicalization, even without range expansions or introductions of novel species. </p> <p>5. Our results suggest that changes to herbivore behaviors triggered by loss of predation risk can undermine ecological resilience to ECEs, particularly where long lived herbivores are abundant. By implication, ongoing losses of apex predators may combine with increasingly frequent ECEs to amplify climate change impacts across diverse ecosystems and large spatial scales.</p>
Rear-edge populations are important for understanding climate change risk and adaptation potential of threatened species
<p>Climate change disproportionately threatens alpine species, by reducing available habitat and by isolating their populations. These pressures are particularly relevant for rear-edge populations, which typically occupy more marginal habitat compared to populations at the core of species' ranges. We studied Caucasian grouse <i>Lyrurus mlokosiewiczi</i> in the Caucasus ecoregion, a global biodiversity hotspot where this species is endemic, to understand potential climate change impacts on the species. Specifically, we assessed how climate change impacts rear-edge populations and how important these populations are for understanding range shifts and adaptive capacity under climate change. We used maximum entropy modelling to assess changes in the distribution of climatically-suitable habitat under present and 2070 climate conditions for the representative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5). Our results revealed that ignoring rear-edge populations leads to a significant underestimation of the future range (by about 14,700 km²). Rear-edge populations were better adapted to warmer climates compared to core populations, and ignoring them therefore also underestimates adaptive capacity. Preventing the loss of rear-edge populations should therefore be a priority for conservation planning in the face of climate change. Because the Caucasian grouse is associated with alpine mountain tops, conservation should focus on establishing connectivity between rear-edge and core populations (e.g., via transboundary corridors or assisted colonizations). Our study reveals how species distribution modelling can highlight the importance of rear-edge populations for mitigating climate change impacts on species of conservation concern.</p>
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Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
ABODe is a University of Edinburgh DataShare dataset for behavior classification in group-housed mice using home-cage video, identities, bounding boxes, ground-plate positions, and annotator labels.
DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.