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159 results for “extinction risk”
Data from: Incorporating explicit geospatial data shows more species at risk of extinction than the current Red List
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Data and code from: Phenotypic memory drives population growth and extinction risk in a noisy environment
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Demography and environment modulate the effects of genetic diversity on extinction risk in a butterfly metapopulation
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Data from: Why do bugs perish? range size and local vulnerability traits as surrogates of Odonata extinction risk
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Molecular delimitation of evolutionary significant units reveals hidden geographic drivers of extinction risk within island arthropods
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Spatiophylogenetic modelling of extinction risk reveals evolutionary distinctiveness and brief flowering period as threats in a hotspot plant genus
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Sexually-selected male weapon increases the risk of population extinction under environmental change: An experimental evidence
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A global map of species at risk of extinction due to natural hazards
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Data from: Extinction risk in extant marine species integrating paleontological and biodistributional data
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Data from: Resistance, tolerance and environmental transmission dynamics determine host extinction risk in a load-dependent amphibian disease
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Data from: Order matters: Autocorrelation of temperatures dictates extinction risk in populations with nonlinear thermal performance
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Data from: Risk of extinction of a unique skate population due to predation by a recovering marine mammal
Benefitting from reduced harvesting and an end to culling, many marine mammals are now recovering from past overexploitation. These recoveries represent important conservation successes but present a serious conservation problem when the recovering mammals are predators of species of conservation concern. Here we examine the role of predation by recovering grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) in the near-extinction of a unique skate population in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL) in Atlantic Canada. Winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata) in the sGSL are distinct from winter skate elsewhere and may represent an endemic species. Their adult abundance has declined by 98% since 1980 and these skates are now detectable in only a small fraction of their former range. Population modelling indicates that the ongoing collapse of this population is due to increases in the natural mortality of adults. Based on model projections this population would be extinct by mid-century if its current rate of productivity were to persist. A second population model incorporated predation by grey seals. Model estimates of skate consumption by seals were consistent with historical and recent estimates of the contribution of skates to grey seal diets. The estimated consumption accounted for the increases in the natural mortality of adult skates. A Type III functional response for grey seals preying on winter skate emerged from the model results. This indicates that, when skate abundance is very low, grey seals are expected to switch to alternate prey, resulting in declines in the mortality of skates due to predation. Consequently, contrary to projections at current productivity, winter skate are expected to be trapped at very low abundance in a "predator pit" instead of declining to extinction. Nonetheless, extinction risk would remain very high at the very small population size in the predator pit. Our results emphasize the need for an ecosystem-based approach to the management of living resources in this ecosystem.
Shifts in sexual dimorphism across a mass extinction in ostracods: implications for sexual selection as a factor in extinction risk
<p>Sexual selection often favors investment in expensive sexual traits that help individuals compete for mates. In a rapidly changing environment, however, allocation of resources to traits related to reproduction at the expense of those related to survival may elevate extinction risk. Empirical testing of this hypothesis in the fossil record, where extinction can be directly documented, is largely lacking. The rich fossil record of cytheroid ostracods offers a unique study system in this context: the male shell is systematically more elongate than that of females, and thus the sexes can be distinguished, even in fossils. Using mixture models to identify sex clusters from size and shape variables derived from the digitized valve outlines of adult ostracods, we estimated sexual dimorphism in ostracod species before and after the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction in the United States Coastal Plain. Across this boundary, we document a substantial shift in sexual dimorphism, driven largely by a pronounced decline in the taxa with dimorphism indicating both very high and very low male investment. The shift away from high male investment, which arises largely from evolutionary changes within genera that persist through the extinction, parallels extinction selectivity previously documented during the Late Cretaceous under a background extinction regime. Our results suggest that sexual selection and the allocation of resources towards survival versus reproduction may be an important factor for species extinction during both background and mass extinctions. </p>
Local extinction risk under climate change in a neotropical asymmetrically dispersed epiphyte
1. The long-term fate of populations experiencing disequilibrium conditions with their environment will ultimately depend on how local colonization and extinction dynamics respond to abiotic conditions (e.g. temperature and rainfall), dispersal limitation and biotic interactions (e.g. competition, facilitation, or interactions with natural enemies). Understanding how these factors influence distributional dynamics under climate change is a major knowledge gap, particularly for small ranged and dispersal-limited plant species, which are at higher risk of extinction. Epiphytes are hypothesized to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and we know little about what drives their distribution and how they will respond to climate change. To address this issue, we leveraged a 10-year data set on the occupancy dynamics of the endemic orchid Lepanthes rupestris to identify the drivers of local colonization and extinction dynamics and assess the long-term fate of this population under multiple climate change scenarios. 2. We compared 290 dynamic occupancy models in their ability to predict the colonization and extinction dynamics of a L. rupestris metapopulation. The model set predicted colonization-extinction dynamics as a function of asymmetric patch connectivity, moss area, elevation, temperature (minimum, maximum and variability), and/or rainfall. 3. The best model predicted that local colonization increases with increasing asymmetric patch connectivity but decreases as minimum temperature and maximum temperature variability increase. The best model also predicted that local extinction increases with increasing variability in maximum temperature. Negative effects were more severe in smaller patches. 4. Synthesis: Overall, our results demonstrate the role of asymmetric connectivity, climate and interactions with moss area as drivers of colonization and extinction dynamics. Moreover, our results suggest that asymmetrically dispersed epiphytes may struggle to persist under climate change because their limited connectivity may not be enough to counterbalance the negative effects of increasing mean or variability in temperature.
Data from: Ecological correlates of extinction risk in Chinese birds
China is one of the countries with the richest bird biodiversity in the world. Among the 1372 Chinese birds, 146 species are considered threatened and three species are regionally extinct according to the officially released China Biodiversity Red List in 2015. Here, we conducted the first extensive analysis to systematically investigate the patterns and processes of extinction and threat in Chinese birds. We addressed the following four questions. First, is extinction risk randomly distributed among avian families in Chinese birds? Second, which families contain more threatened species than would be expected by chance? Third, which species traits are important in determining the extinction risk in Chinese birds using a multivariate phylogenetic comparative approach? Finally, is the form of the relationship between traits additive or nonadditive (synergistic)? We found that the extinction risk of Chinese birds was not randomly distributed among taxonomic families. The families that contained significantly more threatened species than expected were the hornbills, cranes, pittas, pheasants and hawks and eagles. We obtained eleven species traits that are commonly hypothesized to influence extinction risk from the literature: body size, clutch size, trophic level, mobility, habitat specificity, geographical range size, nest type, nest site, flocking tendency, migrant status and hunting vulnerability. After phylogenetic correction, model selection based on Akaike's information criterion identified the synergistic interaction between body size and hunting vulnerability as the single best correlate of extinction risk in Chinese birds. Our results suggest that, in order to be effective, priority management efforts should be given both to certain extinction-prone families, particularly the hornbills, pelicans, cranes, pittas, pheasants and hawks and eagles, and to bird species with large body size and high hunting vulnerability.
Data from: Loss of animal seed dispersal increases extinction risk in a tropical tree species due to pervasive negative density dependence across life stages
Overhunting in tropical forests reduces populations of vertebrate seed dispersers. If reduced seed dispersal has a negative impact on tree population viability, overhunting could lead to altered forest structure and dynamics, including decreased biodiversity. However, empirical data showing decreased animal-dispersed tree abundance in overhunted forests contradict demographic models which predict minimal sensitivity of tree population growth rate to early life stages. One resolution to this discrepancy is that seed dispersal determines spatial aggregation, which could have demographic consequences for all life stages. We tested the impact of dispersal loss on population viability of a tropical tree species, Miliusa horsfieldii, currently dispersed by an intact community of large mammals in a Thai forest. We evaluated the effect of spatial aggregation for all tree life stages, from seeds to adult trees, and constructed simulation models to compare population viability with and without animal-mediated seed dispersal. In simulated populations, disperser loss increased spatial aggregation by fourfold, leading to increased negative density dependence across the life cycle and a 10-fold increase in the probability of extinction. Given that the majority of tree species in tropical forests are animal-dispersed, overhunting will potentially result in forests that are fundamentally different from those existing now.
Data from: Adding fossil occupancy trajectories to the assessment of modern extinction risk
Besides helping to identify species traits that are commonly linked to extinction risk, the fossil record may also be directly relevant for assessing the extinction risk of extant species. Standing geographical distribution or occupancy is a strong predictor of both recent and past extinction risk, but the role of changes in occupancy is less widely assessed. Here we demonstrate, based on the Cenozoic fossil record of marine species, that both occupancy and its temporal trajectory are significant determinants of risk. Based on extinct species we develop a model on the additive and interacting effects of occupancy and its temporal changes on extinction risk. We use this model to predict extinction risk of extant species. The predictions suggest a moderate risk for marine species on average. However, some species seem to be on a long-term decline and potentially at a latent extinction risk, which is not considered in current risk assessments.
Data from: Local and global abundance associated with extinction risk in late Paleozoic and early Mesozoic gastropods
Ecological theory predicts an inverse association between population size and extinction risk, but most previous paleontological studies have not confirmed this relationship. The reasons for this discrepancy between theory and observation remain poorly understood. In this study, we compiled a global database of gastropod occurrences and collection-level abundances spanning the Early Permian through Early Jurassic (Pliensbachian). Globally, the database contains 5469 occurrences of 496 genera and 2156 species from 839 localities. Within the database, 30 collections distributed across 7 stages contain at least 75 specimens and 10 genera – our minimum criteria for within-collection analysis of extinction selectivity. We use logistic regression analysis to assess the relationship between abundance and extinction risk using global and local measures of population size and stage-level extinction patterns in Early Permian through Early Jurassic marine gastropods. We find that global genus occurrence frequency is inversely associated with extinction risk (i.e., positively associated with survival) in 15 of 16 stages examined, statistically significantly so in 6 stages. Although correlation between geographic range and occurrence frequency may account for some of this association, results from multivariable regression analysis suggest that the association between occurrence frequency and extinction risk is largely independent of geographic range. Within local assemblages, abundance (number of individuals) is also inversely associated with extinction risk. The strength of association is consistent across time and modes of fossil preservation. Effect strength is poorly constrained, particularly in analyses of local collections. In addition to limited power due to small sample size, this poor constraint may result from confounding by ecological variables not controlled for in the analyses, by taphonomic or collection biases, or from non-monotonic relationships between abundance and extinction risk. Two factors are likely to account for the difference between our results and those of most previous studies. First, many previous studies focused on the end-Cretaceous mass extinction event; the extent to which these results can be generalized to other intervals remains unclear. Second, previous findings of non-selective extinction could result from insufficient statistical power rather than the absence of an underlying effect because non-selective extinction is generally used as the null hypothesis for statistical convenience. Survivorship patterns in late Paleozoic and early Mesozoic gastropods suggest that abundance has been a more important influence on extinction risk through the Phanerozoic than previously appreciated.
Data from: Interspecific variation in ploidy as a key plant trait outlining local extinction risks and community patterns in fragmented landscapes
1. Polyploidy is associated with a plethora of phenotypic and genetic changes yielding transformative effects on species' life-history and ecology. These biological attributes can contribute to the success of species on ecological timescales, as observed in the invasion success or rapid environmental and climatic adaptation of polyploids. However, to date there has been a distinct lack of empirical evidence linking species' local extinction risk, species distributions and community structure in fragmented landscapes with interspecific variation in ploidy. 2. We aimed to investigate the relationship between levels of habitat fragmentation and patterns in both diversity and the frequency of species with different ploidy levels. We included additional persistence- and dispersal related life-history traits, to establish the relative importance of ploidy in determining species richness and frequencies following habitat fragmentation. We therefore collected plant community presence-absence data and landscape data from grassland fragments from South-Central Sweden. 3. Community-level analysis uncovered that interspecific variation in ploidy proved the strongest predictor of plant community species richness and turn-over across grassland fragments. Local extinction risk decreased as ploidy increased, with diploids most prone to local extinction. 4. In the species-level analysis, ploidy outweighed the combined explanatory power of commonly used life-history traits such as clonality, dispersal mechanism and mating system; key predictors of plant species distributions across fragmented landscapes. 5. Ploidy appears to capture parallel variation in a series of advantageous genetic and life-history mechanisms which operate on ecological timescales, emerging as the strongest predictor of local extinction risk even after accounting for variation in other crucial life-history traits. Our results therefore highlight the importance of genomic traits such as ploidy and total chromosome number as valuable factors explaining and predicting local extinction risk in fragmented landscapes.
Competition increases risk of species extinction during extreme warming
<p>Temperature and interspecific competition are fundamental drivers of community structure in natural systems and can interact to affect many measures of species performance. However, we know surprisingly little about the extent to which competition affects extinction temperatures during extreme warming. This information is important for evaluating future threats to species from extreme high-temperature events and heat waves, which are rising in frequency and severity around the world. Using experimental freshwater communities of rotifers and ciliates, this study shows that interspecific competition can lower the threshold temperature at which local extinction occurs, reducing time to extinction during periods of sustained warming by as much as two weeks. Competitors may lower extinction temperatures by altering biochemical characteristics of the natural environment that affect temperature tolerance (e.g., levels of dissolved oxygen, nutrients, and metabolic wastes) or by accelerating population decline through traditional effects of resource depletion on life history parameters that affect population growth rates. The results suggest changes in community structure in space and time could drive variability in the upper thermal limits.</p>
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OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.