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87 results for “future projections”
Data for "Unusually Low Dust Activity in North Africa in June 2023: Causes, Impacts and Future Projections"
<p>Datasets for manuscript entitled "Unusually Low Dust Activity in North Africa in June 2023: Causes, Impacts and Future Projections"</p>
Data output from Projecting future climate change impacts on the distribution of pelagic squid in the Southern Ocean
<p>Data output from Projecting future climate change impacts on the distribution of pelagic squid in the Southern Ocean:<br>Rasters, R models and scripts</p>
Species functional data and species distribution model projections for future land-use and fire management scenarios in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Gerês-Xurés
<p>The data includes nine functional traits and species distribution model projections for 102 species of vertebrates (amphibians, birds, and reptiles) in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Gerês-Xurés. The model projections are available for 2050 under six different land-use and fire management scenarios, namely two land-use scenarios of “business-as-usual” (BAU; ongoing trends of land abandonment) and “High Nature Value farmlands” (HNV), each under three fire management scenarios (low suppression - LS, current fire suppression - CS, and high fire suppression - HS). The species distribution projections for each scenario are presented as matrices of species presences/absences, obtained after reclassifying consensus predictions of species distribution models.</p>
Dataset for Assessing Multi-Dimensional Impacts of Achieving Sustainability Goals by Projecting the Sustainable Agriculture Matrix into the Future
<p>This data repository feeds into the meta-repository setup for post-processing of GCAM-SAM outputs. GitHub link of meta-repository is: <a href="https://github.com/JGCRI/Kyle-etal_2022_EF">https://github.com/JGCRI/Kyle-etal_2022_EF</a> <br> <br> Folders: <br> <strong>model/</strong> is the static version of the model used to simulate 8 scenarios. See the <a href="https://github.com/pkyle/gcam-core/tree/gpk/paper/sam">GitHub GCAM-SAM repository</a> to follow active development of this model. <br> <strong>inputs/</strong> folder contains input datasets and scripts used to prepare files while postprocessing. This is to be used with <a href="https://github.com/JGCRI/Kyle-etal_2022_EF">GitHub post-processing meta-repository</a>. <br> <strong>outdata/</strong> contains <a href="http://github.com/pkyle/gcam-core/tree/gpk/paper/sam">GCAM-SAM</a> output and <a href="http://github.com/JGCRI/Kyle-etal_2022_EF">post-processed</a> output files used to plot figures. <br> <br> Key files: <br> <em><strong>SAM-matrix.dat</strong></em> is the consolidated GCAM-SAM output. Use <em>proj_load.R</em> in the <a href="https://github.com/JGCRI/Kyle-etal_2022_EF">metarepo</a> to read the file. <br> <em><strong>region_vals.csv</strong></em> has all 8 indicators in all 8 scenarios for years 2020 till 2100 on a 10 year time step. <br> <br> Short introduction to the study:</p> <p>In this paper sustainable agriculture matrix (SAM) is estimated to 2100 using Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We model combinatorial variations of yield intensification, dietary shift, and greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios. Findings include scenarios having significant tradeoffs across multiple environmental, economic, and social dimensions. Assessment of these multi-dimensional tradeoffs in a consistent framework improves the quality of information for decision-making.<br> <br> Should you have any questions, feel free to reach out Page Kyle at <a href="mailto:pkyle@pnnl.gov">pkyle@pnnl.gov</a>. </p>
Future projections of surface heat budgets at Lough Feeagh
<p>ISIMIP_modifiedSimstratv212_Feeagh_v2.rar includes:</p> <p>1) modified Simstrat v212 outputs (surface heat fluxes and water temperature) for Lough Feeagh under future climate projectios (historical + RCP 2.6., 6.0 and 8.5) and natural climate (PiControl).</p> <p>2) Figures and Tables derived from outputs.</p> <p>3) Modifications in Simstratv212 code.</p> <p>The differences with the previos version are that Table 3 and Figure 5 have been updated (changes have been made to the format, not to the content).</p>
Convection-permitting projections of future changes in water balance and groundwater-surface water interactions
<p>This dataset consists of processed data in the manuscript of "Convection-permitting projections of future changes in water balance and groundwater-surface water interactions".</p>
SDM current and future projections for alternate CAM-based cultivation in SSA
<p class="MsoNormal">Globally we are facing an emerging climate crisis, with impacts to be notably felt in semi-arid regions across the world. Cultivation of drought-adapted succulent plants has been suggested as a nature-based solution that could: (i) reduce land degradation, (ii) increase agricultural diversification and provide both economic and environmentally sustainable income through derived bioproducts and bioenergy, (iii) help mitigate atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, and (iv) increase soil sequestration of CO<sub>2</sub>. Identifying where succulents can grow and thrive is an important pre-requisite for the advent of a sustainable alternative 'bio-economy'. Here we first explore the viability of succulent cultivation in Africa under future climate projections to 2100 using species distribution modelling to identify climatic parameters of greatest importance and regions of environmental suitability. Minimum temperatures and temperature variability are shown to be key controls in defining the theoretical distribution of three succulent species explored, and <span>under both current and future SSP5 8.5 projections, the conditions required for growth of at least one of the species is met in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa. </span>These results are supplemented with an analysis of potentially <em>available</em> land for alternative succulent crop cultivation. <span>In total</span>, <span>up to 1.5 billion hectares could be considered ecophysiologically suitable and available for succulent cultivation due to projected declines in rangeland biomass and yields of traditional crops. These </span>findings may serve to highlight new opportunities for farmers, governments, and key stakeholders in the agriculture and energy sectors to invest in sustainable bioeconomic alternatives that deliver on environmental, social and economic goals.<span> </span></p>
Projections of Future Cropland Abandonment: Impacts to Biodiversity and Carbon Sequestration
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Data From: Conservation planning in an uncertain climate: identifying projects that remain valuable and feasible across future scenarios
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SDM current and future projections for alternate CAM-based cultivation in SSA
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Future sea level rise in northwest Mexico is projected to decrease the distribution and habitat quality of the endangered Calidris canutus roselaari (Red Knot)
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Downscaled climate projections of future mesopelagic habitat in the California Current Ecosystem
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Projected future autumn leaf phenology of deciduous trees
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Data from: Evaluation of different bias correction methods for dynamical downscaled future projections of the California Current Upwelling System
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Ensemble projections elucidate effects of uncertainty in terrestrial nitrogen limitation on future carbon uptake
<p>Simulation output as described in Meyerholt, J., Sickel K., and Zaehle, S., (2020), Ensemble projections elucidate effects of uncertainty in terrestrial nitrogen limitation on future carbon uptake, Global Change Biology, doi:10.1111/gcb.15114</p> <p>Data in the file <a href="https://zenodo.org/api/files/62e7c4a2-96e9-46b8-810f-c4c3c24b06c0/ocn4magicc_carbon_model.nc?versionId=cb25734e-52ce-42fa-b238-9b7192baf4dd">ocn4magicc_carbon_model.nc</a> describe the carbon-only version of the model, <a href="https://zenodo.org/api/files/62e7c4a2-96e9-46b8-810f-c4c3c24b06c0/ocn4magicc_carbon_model.nc?versionId=cb25734e-52ce-42fa-b238-9b7192baf4dd">ocn4magicc_nitrogen_models.nc </a>describe the carbon-nitrogen model outputs.</p>
CoDEC Dataset - Data underlying the paper "A high-resolution global dataset of extreme sea levels, tides and storm surges including future projections "
<p>The world’s coastal areas are increasingly at risk of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). We present a novel global dataset of extreme sea levels, the Coastal Dataset for the Evaluation of Climate Impact (CoDEC), which can be used to accurately map the impact of climate change on coastal regions around the world. The third generation Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM), with a coastal resolution of 2.5 km (1.25 km in Europe), was used to simulate extreme sea levels for the ERA5 climate reanalysis from 1979 to 2017, as well as for future climate scenarios from 2040 to 2100. The validation against observed sea levels demonstrated a good performance, and the annual maxima had a mean bias (MB) of -0.04 m, which is 50% lower than the MB of the previous GTSR dataset. The CoDEC-ERA5 dataset is the successor of GTSR <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms11969">(Muis et al., 2016)</a> and is based on the next generation climate and hydrodynamic models. The main improvements are summarized in Table 2 of the accompanying paper <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.00263/abstract">(Muis et al., 2020)</a>.</p> <p><br> </p>
Data from: Current and projected future risks of freshwater fish invasions in China
Biological invasions are a primary threat to global biodiversity, supporting mounting calls for the development of early-warning systems to manage existing and emerging invaders. Here, we evaluated the geographical pattern of invasion risks of currently established and potentially emerging nonnative freshwater fishes in China by jointly considering the threats of introduction and establishment under climate change. Introduction threats were estimated according to proxies of human activities and propagule pressure for two primary pathways (aquaculture or ornamental). Establishment threats for 51 current and 64 potential invaders (based on whether having established or not self-sustaining populations) were assessed using an ensemble of species distribution models under current (1960-1990) and future [2041-2060 (2050s) and 2061-2080 (2070s)] climate scenarios. Geographical patterns of invasion risk were then assessed by overlaying the threats of introduction and establishment for each species group both in present-day and in the future. We found that eastern China displayed the highest threat of introduction. In contrast, southeastern and northwestern regions were identified as the most suitable for the establishment of both current and potential future invaders. Under a changing climate, 83 out of 115 species displayed an increase in habitat suitability, resulting in an overall increase of 4.8% by 2050s and 7.1% by 2070s in the extent of suitable habitat for nonnative freshwater fishes. Taken together, invasion risk was found to be highest in southeastern China and lowest in the Tibet Plateau. Our research highlights the importance of assessing invasion risk by integrating the threats associated with the introduction and establishment stages. In particular, our findings revealed convergent patterns of invasion risk between current and potential nonnative freshwater fishes under climate change. Geographic patterns in hotspots of existing and emerging invasions provide critical insights to guide the allocation of resources to monitor and control existing and emerging invasions in China.
Ecological niche modelling to project past, current and future distributional shift of black ebony tree (Diospyros melanoxylon Roxb.) in India
<p>The present study utilized an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of <em>D. melanoxylon</em> under present, past (Last Glacial Maximum, ~22,000 cal yr BP, Middle Holocene ~6000 cal yr BP) and future climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5 for 2050s and 2070s). The annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and annual precipitations were the most critical parameters that chiefly influence the distribution of <em>D. melanoxylon</em>. The ensemble model rendered high accuracy with AUC=0.93, TSS=0.74, and Kappa=0.71. Past projections of <em>D. melanoxylon</em> indicated a widespread distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum and Middle Holocene suggesting its adaptability to semi-dry as well as warm and humid climates, respectively. The presence of fossil pollen evidence of <em>D. melanoxylon</em> in the suitable habitats derived through past projections in this study complements the model results and marks occurrences of the species during the Last Glacial Maximum and Middle Holocene. By 2050s and 2070s (RCP 8.5), there would be a decline in the distribution by only 0.4% (13622 km2) and 0.2% (6842 km2) of the extremely habitat suitable, respectively. The main factor leading to reduced habitat suitability is the anticipated rise in temperature and variations in seasonal precipitation patterns. Our findings, help in identifying the parts of the country which would be severely affected by future climate change scenarios and plan conservation strategies for this commercially important species to facilitate its growth in suitable habitats which are likely to sustain under future climatic conditions.</p>
Data from: Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models
<p>Projections of future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are of increasing importance to inform policy and decision-making on options for conservation and sustainable use of BES. Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to assess these future changes. This study assesses the consequences for BES in Europe under four socio-environmental scenarios designed from a BES perspective. We evaluated these scenarios using two integrated assessment models (IMAGE-GLOBIO and CLIMSAVE IAP, respectively). </p> <p><strong>Veerkamp, C. J</strong>., Dunford. R. W., Harrison, P. A., Mandryk, M., Priess, J. A., Schipper, A. M., Stehfest, E., & Alkemade, R. (2020). Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models. <em>Regional Environmental Change,</em> 20, 103. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01685-8">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01685-8</a> </p>
Data products from "An 85-year record of glacier change and impacts on future projections for Kennicott and Root Glaciers, Alaska"
<p>DEMs, orthophotos, glacier outlines, historical velocity, model outputs, and ice-penetrating radar data from "An 85-year record of glacier change and impacts on future projections for Kennicott and Root Glaciers, Alaska". File structure is shown in the readme file.</p>
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Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
ABODe is a University of Edinburgh DataShare dataset for behavior classification in group-housed mice using home-cage video, identities, bounding boxes, ground-plate positions, and annotator labels.
DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.