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180 results for “range shift”

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dryad36/100

Data from: Predicting range shifts of pikas (Mammalia, Ochotonidae) in China under scenarios incorporating land-use change, climate change, and dispersal limitations

Two of the most important forces affecting biodiversity are land-use change (LUC) and global climate change (GCC). Previous studies have modeled their impacts on species separately and together, but few have done so for multiple species with dispersal limitations incorporated into the models. We integrate species distribution models plus a dispersal model to predict LUC and GCC impacts on the ranges of five species of pikas in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region of China. Pikas are sensitive to land-use and climate change, and have limited dispersal abilities. The predicted impacts of LUC and GCC on pikas vary between species as well as between LUC and GCC projections. Incorporation of dispersal limitations appreciably restricts the amount of colonized habitat. For all five species, the amount of habitat abandoned or colonized when LUC and GCC are modeled together is less than the sum of LUC and GCC modeled separately. Three of the five species experience a net increase in occupied habitat by 2080 relative to their current ranges under all modeled projections. However, relative to a "Dispersal Only" baseline scenario that assumes no environmental change but continued range expansion into suitable, unoccupied habitat, all five species suffer a net loss of occupied habitat by 2080 under some or all projections. Predictions of future distributions of species based solely on LUC or GCC, as well as predictions assuming additive impacts, can be misleading. Inclusion of dispersal limitations in models markedly alters predicted future distributions of species. The use of a "Dispersal Only" scenario provides a different and perhaps more accurate way to gauge net impacts to species. Future work should consider incorporating all these parameters to better predict the impacts of LUC and GCC on biodiversity.

opencc-zeroAug 2021View details →

zenodo36/100

Raw GBIF data used in the article "Climate-induced range shifts drive adaptive response via spatio-temporal sieving of alleles"

This table contains the raw (unfiltered) species occurrence data for Dianthus sylvestris complied from GBIF. A filtered subset of this data was combined with other data sources to define the input for the species distribution models used in the article "Climate-induced range shifts drive adaptive response via spatio-temporal sieving of alleles".

opencc-by-4.0Jan 2023View details →

dryad36/100

Data from: Protected areas not likely to serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts

Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be travelled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land areas and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30x30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.

opencc-zeroFeb 2023View details →

dryad36/100

Decoupling pioneering traits from latitudinal patterns in a North American bird experiencing a southward range shift

<ol> <li>Eco-geographic rules describe spatial patterns in biological trait variation and shed light on the drivers of such variation. In animals, a consensus is emerging that 'pioneering' traits may facilitate range shifts via a set of bold, aggressive, and stress-resilient traits. Many of these same traits are associated with more northern latitudes, and most range shifts in the northern hemisphere indicate northward movement. As a consequence, it is unclear whether pioneering traits are simply corollaries of existing latitudinal variation, or whether they override other well-trodden latitudinal patterning as a unique eco-geographic rule of phenotypic variation.</li> <li>The tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) is a songbird undergoing a southward range shift in the eastern United States, in direct opposition of the poleward movement seen in most other native species' range shifts. Because this organic range shift countervails the typical direction of movement, this case study provides for unique ecological insights on organisms and their ability to thrive in our changing world.</li> <li>We sampled female birds across seven populations, quantifying behavioral, physiological, and morphological traits. We also used GIS and field data to quantify a core set of ecological factors with strong ties to these traits as well as female performance.</li> <li>Females at more southern expansion sites displayed higher maternal aggression, higher baseline corticosterone, and more pronounced elevation of corticosterone following a standardized stressor, contrary to otherwise largely conserved latitudinal patterning in these traits. Microhabitat variation explained some quantitative phenotypic variation, but the expansion and historic ranges did not differ in openness, distance to water, or breeding density.</li> <li>This countervailing range shift therefore suggests that pioneering traits are not simply corollaries of existing latitudinal variation, but rather, they may override other well-trodden latitudinal patterning as a unique eco-geographic rule of phenotypic variation.</li> </ol>

opencc-zeroFeb 2023View details →

dryad36/100

Data for: Recent range shifts of moths, butterflies, and birds are driven by the breadth of their climatic niche

Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term selection to past climates have shaped species' tolerances, metrics describing species' contemporary climatic niches may provide an alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change. Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species across a boreal 1100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of potential mechanistic underpinnings.

opencc-zeroFeb 2023View details →

dryad36/100

Distinct responses and range shifts of lizards populations across an elevational gradient under climate change

Ongoing climate change has profoundly affected global biodiversity, but its impacts on populations across elevations remain understudied. Using a mechanistic niche model incorporating species traits, we predicted ecophysiological responses (activity times, oxygen consumption and evaporative water loss) for lizard populations at high-elevation (< 3600 m asl) and extra-high-elevation (> 3600 m asl) under recent (1970–2000) and future (2081–2100) climates. Compared with their high-elevation counterparts, lizards from extra-high-elevations are predicted to experience a greater increase in activity time and oxygen consumption but a similar increase in evaporative water loss. By integrating these ecophysiological traits into a hybrid species distribution model (HSDM), we were able to make the following predictions under two warming scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). By 2081–2100, we predict that lizards at both high- and extra-high-elevations will shift upslope; lizards at extra-high-elevations will gain more and lose less habitat than will their high-elevation congeners. We therefore advocate the conservation of high-elevation species in the context of climate change, especially for those populations living close to their lower elevational range limits. In addition, by comparing the results from HSDM and traditional species distribution models, we highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation and local adaptation in physiological traits along elevational gradients when forecasting species' future distributions under climate change.

opencc-zeroFeb 2023View details →

dryad36/100

Winter range shifts and their associations with species traits are heterogeneous in eastern North American birds

Many species' distributions are shifting in response to climate change. Many distributional shifts are predictably poleward or higher in elevation, but heterogeneity in the rate and direction of shifts both within and between species appears to be common. We found high heterogeneity in the trajectory of winter range shifts for 65 species of birds across eastern North America and in the different traits and trait interactions associated with these shifts across the spatial scales we examined. We used data from the Christmas Bird Count to quantify the trajectory of winter latitudinal center of abundance range shifts over four decades (1980–2019) for 65 species of songbirds and woodpeckers in North America, both across eastern North America (ENA) as a whole and for the Atlantic (ATL) and Mississippi (MISS) flyways separately. We then used linear models and AICc model selection to test whether species traits could explain variation in range shifts or flyway discrepancies. Across ENA, most species showed northward latitudinal range shifts, but some showed no latitudinal shift while others shifted southwards. Amongst ATL and MISS, we documented both within- and between-species differences in the rate and direction of latitudinal shifts, complicating the results from across ENA. No single trait emerged as a dominant driver of range shift differences at the ENA and flyway scales. Migration strategy interacted with insectivory to explain variation at the largest spatial scale (ENA), whereas frugivory and mean winter latitude explained much of the variation in ATL and MISS, respectively. Exploring heterogeneity in range shifts within and between species, and in the associations between range shifts and life history traits, will help us better understand the mechanisms that mediate differing responses to environmental change and predict which species will be better able to adapt to those changes.

opencc-zeroJun 2023View details →

dryad36/100

Data for: Using distribution models to identify range shifts of four Acroneuria Pictet, 1841 (Plecoptera: Perlidae) species in the Midwest USA

Regional faunal assessments of stoneflies in the United States Midwest (herein defined as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin) indicate increasing imperilment resulting from human disturbance and climate change. Large-bodied Perlid stoneflies with multivoltine life cycles are among the most at risk for regional extirpation, with losses reported in several midwestern states. Species distribution modeling was undertaken to describe distribution shifts for four widespread riverine species: Acroneuria abnormis (Newman, 1838), A. frisoni Stark & Brown, 1991, A. internata (Walker, 1852) and A. lycorias (Newman, 1839). The distribution modeling algorithm MaxEnt was selected to predict both the historical (i.e., pre-1960) and contemporaneous distributions for each species using separate occurrence datasets. These models permit the identification of suitable habitat loss through range contractions associated with human disturbance. Predictions of suitable habitat losses were recorded for multiple species but were greatest for A. abnormis and A. internata. These models serve to guide future collection efforts and to further describe patterns of regional biodiversity loss. The data presented within this dataset contain the occurrence data used for modeling with distinction between temporal periods modeled.

opencc-zeroJun 2023View details →

dryad36/100

Advancing and retreating fronts in a changing climate: a percolation model of range shifts

Climate change causes considerable shifts in the geographic distribution of species worldwide. Most data on range movements, however, derive from relatively short periods, within which it is difficult to distinguish directional shifts from random fluctuations. For detecting a shift, it is indispensable to delineate the range precisely. We propose a new method for delineation based on percolation theory. We suggest marking the boundary between the connected and fragmented occurrence of the species (the hull). We demonstrate the advantages of this connectivity-based method on simulated examples in which a metapopulation is advancing vs. retreating along an environmental gradient with different velocities. The simulations show that the hull is a fractal and has the same dimension (7/4) even when the front is advancing or retreating relatively fast, compared to the generation time. It is particularly robust in the retreating (trailing) edge. Accordingly, we propose marking the range edge at the mean position of the hull, the 'connectivity limit' of the species. Theoretical considerations suggest that the position of the connectivity limit is statistically more reliable than those limits that are delineated according to the outermost occurrences, and the connectivity-based method is broadly applicable to real-life data.

opencc-zeroJul 2023View details →

dryad36/100