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1,751 results for “Future”
Discounting future reward in an uncertain world: behavioural data
<p class="MsoNormal">Humans discount delayed relative to more immediate reward. A plausible explanation is that impatience arises partly from uncertainty, or risk, implicit in delayed reward. Existing theories of discounting-as-risk focus on a probability that delayed reward will not materialize. By contrast, we examine how uncertainty in the magnitude of delayed reward contributes to delay discounting. We propose a model wherein reward is discounted proportional to the rate of random change in its magnitude across time, termed volatility. We find evidence to support this model across three experiments (total N=158). Firstly, using a task where participants chose when to sell products, whose price dynamics they previously learned, we show discounting increases in line with price volatility. Secondly, we show that this effect pertains over naturalistic delays of up to four months. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we observe a volatility-dependent decrease in functional hippocampal-prefrontal coupling during intertemporal choice. Thirdly, we replicate these effects in a larger online sample, finding that volatility discounting within each task correlates with baseline discounting outside of the task. We conclude that delay discounting partly reflects time-dependent uncertainty about reward magnitude, i.e. volatility. Our model captures how discounting adapts to volatility, thereby partly accounting for individual differences in impatience. Our imaging findings suggest a putative mechanism whereby uncertainty reduces prospective simulation of future outcomes.</p>
Data supporting the manuscript: Demonstrating the value of beaches for adaptation to future coastal flood risk
<p>*Forcing hydrograms used to compute the flooding maps in .mat format.</p> <p>*Geodatabase of Pre-storm flooding maps </p> <p>*Geodatabase of Post-storm flooding maps</p>
The past, present, and future of ecogeographic isolation between closely related Aquilegia plants
<p>Quantifying the strength of the ecogeographic barrier is an important aspect of studies of plant speciation and a practical step to understanding the evolutionary trajectory of plants under climate change. Here, we quantified the extent of ecogeographical isolation of four closely related Aquilegia species, which radiated in the Mountains of SW China and adjacent regions and often lacked intrinsic barriers. We predicted past, present and future species potential distributions using environmental niche models, then compared them to determine the degree of overlap and ecogeographic isolation. Investigated ecogeographical isolation between species pairs, we found significant ecological differentiation in all studied species pairs except A. kansuensis and A. ecalacarata. The current strengths of ecogeographic isolation are above 0.5 in most cases. Compared with current climates, most species had an expanding range in the Last Glacial Maximum, the Mid Holocene and under four future climate scenarios. Our results suggested that ecogeographic isolation contributes to the diversification and maintenance of Aquilegia species in the Mountains of northern and SW China and would act as an essential reproductive barrier in the future.</p>
Opening the Future... in 60 seconds
<p>An animated video explaining the <a href="https://www.openingthefuture.net/"><em>Opening the Future</em></a> collective funding model for OA monographs</p>
Data from: Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes
<p><span>Aim: </span><span>Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation. </span></p> <p><span>Location: </span><span>China</span></p> <p><span>Methods:</span> <span>Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥ 30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network. </span></p> <p><span>Results: </span><span>Our results suggest that 36.30%-51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions, and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826-3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers </span><span>14.21%-20.87% </span><span>of </span><span>the </span><span>'</span><span>areas worth exploring</span><span>' and 6.91%</span><span>-</span><span>7.91</span><span>% </span><span>of </span><span>the </span><span>'</span><span>areas worth attention</span><span>'.</span></p> <p><span>Main conclusions: </span><span>Our findings</span><span> highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, </span><span>our findings</span><span> also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.</span></p>
Chapter 29. Supplementary material. Remote sensing of invasive Australian Acacia species: State of the art and future perspectives
<p>This is online supplementary material for the Chapter "Remote sensing of invasive Australian Acacia species: State of the art and future perspectives" authored by A Große-Stoltenberg, I Lizarazo, G Brundu, VP Gonçalves, LP Osco, C Masemola, J Müllerová, C Werner, I Kotze, and J Oldeland, corresponding to Chapter 29 In: "Wattles: Australian Acacia species around the world". Eds: D.M. Richardson, J.J. Le Roux, and E. Marchante (CABI, UK, 2023).”</p>
Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios – Brazilian semi-arid region
<p>This database comes from the article entitled ''Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios –Brazilian semi-arid region'' (https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/sociedadenatureza /article/view/67666/36193). We provide data on aridity and desertification index for the current scenario and future projections considering changes in climate.</p>
As We May Remember. The Future of Remembrance from the Perspective of Documentary Archives
<p>Can we already discern the structures of future memory cultures? From this fundamental question, I will examine the mediated forms of current memory culture, with a particular focus on documentary films. Digital technologies are currently leading to significant changes in our knowledge culture, which will inevitably impact the shaping of memory cultures and the structures of media memory in the near future. These changes manifest in two opposing processes: on the one hand, in the archival situation, characterized by non-accessibility, poor archiving, or even the physical decay of documentary material (such as analog video), and on the other hand, attempts at digital preservation or even reconstitution of archives through various media transformation processes - particularly re-mediatizations, which are shaped by new forms of media expression (i-docs, VR/AR-technologies etc.). The latter is not only a challenge for media historiography, but opens up new possibilities for the memory work of GLAM and memorial sites. In this contribution, I will explore the tension between disappearing archive material, using the example of the archival situation of German documentary films, and selected new digital forms of re-mediatization, focusing on themes such as the Holocaust and the Nazi era.</p> <p> </p> <p>See also: Weber, Thomas. (2023, June 30). As We May Remember. The Future of Remembrance from the Perspective of Documentary Archives. In TraMeTraMi: Vols. 4-2023. <a href="https://trametrami.avinus.org/publikationen/4-2023">https://trametrami.avinus.org/publikationen/4-2023</a> </p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Thomas</strong> <strong>Weber</strong> is Professor for media studies at the University of Hamburg. He was one of the leaders of the DFG-project “History of the german documentary film after 1945” and leads several other projects in the field of documentary film (see<a href="http://www.dokartlabor.avinus.de/"> www.dokartlabor.avinus.de</a>) His books include: <em>Webdokumentationen</em> 2021; <em>Medienkulturen des Dokumentarischen</em> 2017 (ed. with Carsten Heinze); <em>Mediale Transformationen des Holocausts</em> 2013 (ed. with Ursula von Keitz); “Documentary Film in Media Transformation”, InterDisciplines – Journal of History and Sociology. Vol 4, No 1 (2013). Further information see<a href="http://www.thomas-weber.avinus.de/"> www.thomas-weber.avinus.de</a></p> <p> </p>
Prediction of potential suitable areas for Phoebe zhennan in future different climate scenarios
<p>This dataset includes sample collection data of existing <em>Phoebe zhennan</em> in China, as well as historical climate data and future climate data (with a resolution of 2.5 minutes and using the BCC-CSM2-MR GCM model) collected by Worldclim, along with geographical elevation data. These data are used to predict the potential distribution range of <em>Phoebe zhennan</em> in the future.</p>
A secure future? Human urban and agricultural land use benefits a flightless island-endemic rail despite climate change
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Identifying environmental characteristics that limit species' distributions is important for contemporary conservation and inferring responses to future environmental change. The Tasmanian native hen is an island-endemic flightless rail and a survivor of a prehistoric extirpation event. Little is known about the regional-scale environmental characteristics influencing the distribution of native hens, or how their future distribution might be impacted by environmental shifts (e.g., climate change). </span><span>Using a combination of local fieldwork and species distribution modelling, we assess environmental factors shaping the contemporary distribution of the native hen, and project future distribution changes under predicted climate change. We find 37.2% of Tasmania is currently suitable for the native hens, owing to low summer precipitation, low elevation, human-modified vegetation, and urban areas. <span>Moreover</span>, in unsuitable regions, </span><span>urban areas can create 'oases' of habitat, able to support populations with high breeding activity by providing resources and buffering against environmental constraints. Under climate change predictions, </span><span>native hens were predicted to lose only 5% of their occupied range by 2055. We conclude that the species is resilient to climate change and benefits overall from anthropogenic landscape modifications. As such, this constitutes a rare example of a flightless rail to have adapted to human activity.</span></p>
Data from: Estimating potential global sources and secondary spread of freshwater invasions under historical and future climates
<p>Aim: We employ a climate-matching method to evaluate potential source regions of freshwater invasive species to an introduced region and their potential secondary spread under historical and future climates.</p> <p>Location: Global source regions, with primary introductions to the Laurentian Great Lakes and secondary introductions throughout North America</p> <p>Methods: We conducted a climate-match analysis using the CLIMATE algorithm to estimate global source freshwater ecoregions under historical and future climates with an ensemble of general circulation models for climate change scenario SSP5-8.5. Given existing research, we use a climate match of ≥ 71.7% between ecoregions to indicate climatic conditions that will not inhibit the survival of introduced freshwater organisms. Further, we estimate the secondary spread of freshwater invaders to the ecoregions of North America under historical and future climates.</p> <p>Results: We identified 54 global freshwater ecoregions with a climate match ≥ 71.7% to the recipient Laurentian Great Lakes under historical climatic conditions and 11 additional ecoregions were predicted to exceed the threshold under climate change. Three of the 11 ecoregions were located in South America, a continent where no matches existed under historical climates and eight were located in the southern United States, southern Europe, Japan, and New Zealand. Further, we identify 34 North American ecoregions of potential secondary spread of freshwater invasions from the Great Lakes under historical climatic conditions, and five ecoregions were predicted to exceed the threshold under climate change.</p> <p>Main conclusion: We provide a climate-match method that can be employed to assess the sources and spread of freshwater invasions under historical and future climate scenarios. Our climate-match method predicted increases in climate match between the recipient region and several potential source regions, and changes in areas of potential spread under climate change. The identified ecoregions are candidates for detailed biosecurity risk assessments and related management actions. The identified ecoregions are candidates for detailed biosecurity risk assessments and related management actions.</p>
Data from: Past population control biases interpretations of contemporary genetic data: implications for future invasive Sitka black-tailed deer management in Haida Gwaii
<p>Invasive species management practices often include genetic analyses to better inform decision-making and resource allocation. Yet, past management actions may artificially bias recovered patterns of genetic variation; for example, a population bottleneck caused by contemporary culling may mirror some patterns associated with historical isolation. Here, we aimed to disentangle the impacts of past management activities from natural processes for Sitka black-tailed deer (<em>Odocoileus</em> <em>hemionus</em> <em>sitkensis</em>), an invasive species that has been repeatedly culled on two islands, SGang Gwaay and Reef, within the Haida Gwaii archipelago (Canada). We applied a recently developed Genotyping-in-Thousands by sequencing panel to contemporary (e.g., blood, serum, tissue, muscle, feces) and archived deer samples, the latter collected prior to management activity within the system (c. 1997–1998), which allowed us to contextualize conflicting patterns of isolation and connectivity previously observed on SGang Gwaay and Reef. Successful genotyping (92.6%) and population genetic analysis of 292 individuals at 236 SNPs revealed signals of historical isolation on SGang Gwaay and Reef, provided evidence of a founder effect during initial colonization, and indicated an absence of ongoing gene flow. Furthermore, our spatiotemporal analyses consistently supported a priori predictions associated with bottlenecks within post-cull populations, such as within-island loss of genetic variation, elevated within-island kinship, and increased levels of among-island genetic differentiation. These findings are promising for future management of deer on SGang Gwaay and Reef, suggesting that eradications on these islands may be durable. More broadly, our work highlights the importance of understanding management history before interpreting contemporary population genetic data.</p>
Agriculture Futures and Climate Data Set
<p>This is the second release.</p> <p>The agriculturefuturedata.mat includes the realized volatility series of corn, cotton, palm, wheat, and soybean futures.</p> <p><br> The climatedata.mat includes the average air pollution variables, weighted average air pollution variables, weighted average weather variables, attention to climate change variables, and attention to extreme weather variables.</p>
SDM current and future projections for alternate CAM-based cultivation in SSA
<p class="MsoNormal">Globally we are facing an emerging climate crisis, with impacts to be notably felt in semi-arid regions across the world. Cultivation of drought-adapted succulent plants has been suggested as a nature-based solution that could: (i) reduce land degradation, (ii) increase agricultural diversification and provide both economic and environmentally sustainable income through derived bioproducts and bioenergy, (iii) help mitigate atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, and (iv) increase soil sequestration of CO<sub>2</sub>. Identifying where succulents can grow and thrive is an important pre-requisite for the advent of a sustainable alternative 'bio-economy'. Here we first explore the viability of succulent cultivation in Africa under future climate projections to 2100 using species distribution modelling to identify climatic parameters of greatest importance and regions of environmental suitability. Minimum temperatures and temperature variability are shown to be key controls in defining the theoretical distribution of three succulent species explored, and <span>under both current and future SSP5 8.5 projections, the conditions required for growth of at least one of the species is met in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa. </span>These results are supplemented with an analysis of potentially <em>available</em> land for alternative succulent crop cultivation. <span>In total</span>, <span>up to 1.5 billion hectares could be considered ecophysiologically suitable and available for succulent cultivation due to projected declines in rangeland biomass and yields of traditional crops. These </span>findings may serve to highlight new opportunities for farmers, governments, and key stakeholders in the agriculture and energy sectors to invest in sustainable bioeconomic alternatives that deliver on environmental, social and economic goals.<span> </span></p>
Replication data for: Future response of Antarctic continental shelf temperatures to ice shelf basal melting and calving
<p>Replication data for: Future response of Antarctic continental shelf temperatures to ice shelf basal melting and calving</p> <p>This manuscript is in press at Geophysical Research Letters.</p> <p><a href="https://zenodo.org/api/files/e04b47c6-d136-4833-b8c6-a79f5b05eb65/SSP585FW_ensemble.tar.gz?versionId=6f33274b-a436-4850-99a8-9dac047b812b">SSP585FW_ensemble.tar.gz</a> contains data needed to replicate the figures and analysis in the manuscript.</p>
A tale of three vines: current and future threats to wild Eurasian grapevine by vineyards and invasive rootstocks
<p>This dataset has been used for the paper <em>A tale of three vines: current and future threats to wild Eurasian grapevine by vineyards and invasive rootstocks</em> by Petitpierre et al.</p> <p>It contains the species distribution of five <em>Vitis</em> species in North America and Europe (<em>Vitis acerifolia</em>, <em>Vitis aestivalis</em>, <em>Vitis rupestris</em>, <em>Vitis riparia </em>and <em>Vitis berlandieri</em>), so as the distribution of the Eurasian wild grapevine (<em>Vitis vinifera</em> ssp. <em>sylvestris</em>) and cultivated grapevine in Europe (<em>Vitis vinifera</em> ssp. <em>vinifera</em>). 40 bioclimatic variables are associated to these distributions. These variables were derived from the Climond dataset (Kriticos et al., 2012).</p> <p>Species distribution data were gathered using several databases and sources. The list of the different sources is cited in methods section of the related manuscript. The distribution of each <em>Vitis</em> taxa was rasterized at a resolution of 0.167° (coordinate reference system WGS84; EPSG:4326). X and Y coordinates correspond to the center of each cell. Environmental variables were extracted from the CliMond database (Kriticos et al., 2012) for each site. It consists of a set of 40 bioclimatic variables at a resolution of 0.167°, grouped into 4 categories: temperature, precipitation, moisture, and solar radiation. The description of these 40 variables can be found in the original CliMond publication (Kriticos et al., 2012).</p> <p> </p> <p>Each file contains the distribution of one Vitis taxa.</p> <p>v_ace.csv contains the distribution of Vitis acerifolia in North America.</p> <p>v_aes.csv contains the distribution of Vitis aestivalis in North America.</p> <p>v_ber.csv contains the distribution of Vitis berlandieri in North America.</p> <p>v_rip.csv contains the distribution of Vitis riparia in North America.</p> <p>v_rup.csv contains the distribution of Vitis rupestris in North America.</p> <p>v_root.csv contains the distribution of the American vitis taxa (Vitis acerifolia, Vitis aestivalis, Vitis berlandieri, Vitis riparia and Vitis rupestris) in Europe.</p> <p>v_vin.csv contains the distribution of the vineyards (i.e. Vitis vinifera ssp. vinifera, the cultivated grapevine) in Europe.</p> <p>v_syl.csv contains the distribution of the vineyards (i.e. Vitis vinifera ssp. sylvestris, the wild European grapevine) in Europe.</p> <p><strong>Reference</strong><br> Kriticos, D.J., Webber, B.L., Leriche, A., Ota, N., Macadam, I., Bathols, J., Scott, J.K., 2012. CliMond: Global high-resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling. Methods Ecol. Evol. 3, 53–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00134.x</p> <p>GBIF data for Vitis vinifera ssp. vinifera. GBIF.org (11 November 2020) GBIF Occurrence Download https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.hacmjx<br> GBIF data for Vitis ssp. sylvestris. GBIF.org (11 November 2020) GBIF Occurrence Download https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.qu7txv<br> GBIF data for Vitis berlandieri. GBIF.org (11 November 2020) GBIF Occurrence Download https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.w6dt7r<br> GBIF data for Vitis riparia. GBIF.org (11 November 2020) GBIF Occurrence Download https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.aqh55u<br> GBIF data for Vitis acerifolia. GBIF.org (11 November 2020) GBIF Occurrence Download https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.csd7wc<br> GBIF data for Vitis aestivalis. GBIF.org (11 November 2020) GBIF Occurrence Download https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.f5jfzf<br> GBIF data for Vitis rupestris. GBIF.org (02 September 2020) GBIF Occurrence Download https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.gqjm7w</p> <p> </p>
Spectroscopy of the Cosmic Web: a view beyond collisional ionisation equilibrium with future X-ray telescopes
<p>This is a special seminar I gave at the Goddard Space Flight Center of NASA about my Ph.D. research at the Leiden University and the Netherlands Institute for Space Research SRON. Here you can download the presentation slides as well as the recording of the seminar. </p> <p> </p> <p>Abstract:</p> <p>In this talk I will focus on the X-ray view of the cosmic web filaments, more specifically the warm-hot intergalactic medium (WHIM). Hitomi kick-started an upcoming era of X-ray microcalorimeters which offer an unprecedented spectral resolution of diffuse sources. Many spectral signatures that could not yet have been studied will become feasible for the detection, and my presentation will focus on two of these spectral effects.</p> <p><br> Firstly, I will discuss how galaxy cluster photons alter the ionization state of nearby WHIM and affect the column densities of e.g. O VI, O VII, C V, or Ne VIII. Secondly,<br> I will discuss the feasibility of detecting the circum- and intergalactic medium in X-ray absorption using the extended intracluster medium as a backlight. For this study we used the cosmological hydrodynamical simulations Hydrangea (based on EAGLE) and we reported the feasibility of the detection of cosmic web filaments in OVII and in OVIII absorption with the microcalorimeter arrays onboard Athena and LEM. Last but not least, I will discuss my contribution to updating the cooling curve in the photoionisation model of the plasma code SPEX, and show the comparison to other plasma codes (MEKAL, APEC, Cloudy) and other atomic databases (CHIANTI, ADAS).</p>
Phosphorus nutrition strategies in a symbiodiniacean species: Implications in coral-alga symbiosis facing increasing phosphorus deficiency in future warmer oceans
<p><span>Coral reefs thrive in the oligotrophic ocean and rely on symbiotic algae to acquire nutrients. </span><span>Global warming is projected to intensify surface ocean nutrient deficiency and anthropogenic discharge of wastes with high nitrogen (N): phosphorus (P) ratios can exacerbate P nutrient limitation. However, our understanding on how symbiotic algae cope with P deficiency is limited. Here, we </span><span>investigated the responses of a coral symbiotic species of <em>Symbiodiniaceae, Cladocopium goreaui</em>, to P-limitation by examining its physiological performance and transcriptomic profile. </span><span>Under P stress, <em>C. goreaui</em> exhibited decreases in algal growth, photosynthetic efficiency, and cellular P content but enhancement in carbon fixation, N assimilation, N:P ratio, and energy metabolism, with downregulated expression of carbohydrate exporter genes. Besides, <em>C. goreaui </em>showed flexible mechanisms of utilizing different dissolved organic phosphorus to relieve P deficiency. When provided glycerol phosphate,<em> C. goreaui</em> hydrolyzed it extracellularly to produce phosphate for uptake. When grown on phytate, in contrast, <em>C. goreaui</em> upregulated the endocytosis pathway while no dissolved inorganic phosphorus was released into the medium, suggesting that phytate was transported into the cell, potentially via the endocytosis pathway. This study sheds light on the survival strategies of <em>C. goreaui</em> and potential weakening of its role as an organic carbon supplier in P-limited environments, underscoring the importance of more systematic investigation on future projections of such effects.</span></p>
The Use of VR/AR End-User Development Tools in Education: Lessons Learned and Future Challenges
<p>Dataset of the paper "The Use of VR/AR End-User Development Tools in Education: Lessons Learned and Future Challenges"</p>
The Future Evolution of Global Natural Gas Trade Output Data
<p>This data repository contains the GCAM output databases for the paper: Yarlagadda, B., G. Iyer, M. Binsted, P. Patel, M. Wise, and J. McLeod. (2023). The Future Evolution of Global Natural Gas Trade. </p>
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These curated guides explain access requirements, typical timelines, costs, and reuse considerations for widely used research datasets.
Allen Brain Atlas
Allen Brain Atlas is an Allen Institute collection of brain map atlases, datasets, APIs, and analysis tools covering mouse, human, and non-human primate brain resources.
Annotated Behaviour and Observability Dataset (ABODe)
ABODe is a University of Edinburgh DataShare dataset for behavior classification in group-housed mice using home-cage video, identities, bounding boxes, ground-plate positions, and annotator labels.
DANDI Archive for NWB datasets
DANDI is a BRAIN Initiative archive for publishing and sharing neurophysiology data, including electrophysiology, optophysiology, and behavioral data packaged as NWB and related standards.
International Brain Laboratory public data
The International Brain Laboratory public data releases expose standardized mouse decision-making experiments, including Neuropixels recordings, widefield calcium imaging, behavior, and session metadata accessed through the ONE API.
OpenNeuro
OpenNeuro is a free, open platform for sharing neuroimaging datasets, with public search, dataset pages, and download paths for web, S3, DataLad, and the OpenNeuro CLI.